Boosting the tree augmented naive bayes classifier

The Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN) classifier relaxes the sweeping independence assumptions of the Naïve Bayes approach by taking account of conditional probabilities. It does this in a limited sense, by incorporating the conditional probability of each attribute given the class and (at most) one other attribute. The method of boosting has previously proven very effective in improving the performance of Naïve Bayes classifiers and in this paper, we investigate its effectiveness on application to the TAN classifier.

Cytokine-specific Gene-knockout Studies in Oropharyngeal Candidiasis

Oropharyngeal candidiasis is a common clinical problem encountered in patients with defects in innate or cell-mediated immunity. We have previously shown that recovery from chronic oropharyngeal candidiasis is dependent on CD4+ T-cell augmentation of neutrophil and macrophage candidacidal activity, and that the immune response is characterised by the production of cytokines such as IL-12 and IFN-gamma by cells in the local draining lymph nodes, and by the expression of TNF-alpha in the oral tissues. Objective: The purpose of this study was to elaborate on the role of these cytokines in recovery from oropharyngeal candidiasis, by using cytokine-specific gene-knockout mice. Methods: These mice are created by targeted gene mutation (tm1) of embryonic stem (ES) cells microinjected into host embryos. IL-4, IL-10, IL-12, IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha knockout mice, and appropriate controls, were infected orally with 108 viable C. albicans yeasts. The infection was quantified by swabbing the oral cavity and plating on Sabouraud's agar. Results: Tnftm1mice developed an acute severe infection characterized by an increased fungal load in the early stages of infection, but cleared the yeast within the same time frame as control mice (21 days). On the other hand, Il12btm1 mice developed a chronic oropharyngeal infection (120 days) similar to that seen in T-cell deficient (Foxn1nu/Foxn1nu) mutant mice. There was no significant difference between Il4tm1, Il10tm1, and Ifngtm1 mice and their respective controls. Conclusions: Tnftm1 mice may be rendered more susceptible through impaired recruitment of phagocytic cells, and/or impaired killing of C. albicans, whereas Il12btm1 mice may not be capable of activating naïve T-cells or inducing an appropriate cellular immune response. Supported by NHMRC and ADRF.

Classifying an opponent's behaviour in robot soccer

This paper illustrates the prediction of opponent behaviour in a competitive, highly dynamic, multi-agent and partially observableenvironment, namely RoboCup small size league robot soccer. The performance is illustrated in the context of the highly successful robot soccer team, the RoboRoos. The project is broken into three tasks; classification of behaviours, modelling and prediction of behaviours and integration of the predictions into the existing planning system. A probabilistic approach is taken to dealing with the uncertainty in the observations and with representing the uncertainty in the prediction of the behaviours. Results are shown for a classification system using a Naïve Bayesian Network that determines the opponent’s current behaviour. These results are compared to an expert designed fuzzy behaviour classification system. The paper illustrates how the modelling system will use the information from behaviour classification to produce probability distributions that model the manner with which the opponents perform their behaviours. These probability distributions are show to match well with the existing multi-agent planning system (MAPS) that forms the core of the RoboRoos system.

PARTICIPAÇÃO ESCOLAR: UMA ANÁLISE A PARTIR DA HISTÓRIA DE VIDA DOS PARTICIPANTES

Esta dissertação consiste essencialmente numa reflexão sobre a participação numa escola pública da rede estadual de ensino de São Paulo, a partir da história de vida dos sujeitos que nela atuam, visando a compreender o que mantém motivadas as pessoas que se destacam por sua participação. É um estudo de natureza qualitativa, em que se relatam as experiências da própria autora e de mais duas pessoas da comunidade escolar, utilizando-se o método da história de vida. Esta pesquisa se estrutura em três etapas. Na primeira, através da metodologia adotada, buscou-se conhecer os sujeitos envolvidos no processo de participação. Na segunda, estudouse a literatura corrente sobre os conceitos de participação e voluntariado. A terceira etapa constitui-se em uma reflexão sobre a leitura das histórias de vida dos sujeitos sob a perspectiva da interculturalidade, da participação e do voluntariado. Na narrativa das histórias de vida, é visível a mudança que viveram as pessoas envolvidas, que, de uma participação ingênua, passaram a ter uma participação crítica.(AU)

The role of texture amplitude in shape from shading

When a textured surface is modulated in depth and illuminated, parts of the surface receive different levels of illumination; the resulting variations in luminance can be used to infer the shape of the depth modulations-shape from shading. The changes in illumination also produce changes in the amplitude of the texture, although local contrast remains constant. We investigated the role of texture amplitude in supporting shape from shading. If a luminance plaid is added to a binary noise texture (LM), shape from shading produces perception of corrugations in two directions. If the amplitude of the noise is also modulated (AM) such that it is in-phase with one of the luminance sinusoids and out-of-phase with the other, the resulting surface is seen as corrugated in only one directionöthat supported by the in-phase pairing. We confirmed this subjective report experimentally, using a depth-mapping technique. Further, we asked naïve observers to indicate the direction of corrugations in plaids made up of various combinations of LM and AM. LM+AM was seen as having most depth, then LM-only, then LM-AM, and then AM-only. Our results suggest that while LM is required to see depth from shading, its phase relative to any AM component is also important.

The role of macular pigment assessment in clinical practice:a review

This review compares the results of studies that have investigated the impact of lutein and zeaxanthin supplementation on macular pigment optical density (MPOD) with those that have investigated the reliability of techniques used to measure macular pigment optical density. The review will focus on studies that have used heterochromatic flicker photometry for measurement of macular pigment optical density, as this is the only technique that is currently available commercially to clinicians. We identified articles that reported on supplementation with lutein and/or zeaxanthin and/or meso-zeaxanthin on macular pigment optical density measurement techniques published in peer-reviewed journals, through a multi-staged, systematic approach. Twenty-four studies have investigated the repeatability of MPOD measurements using heterochromatic flicker photometry. Of these, 10 studies provided a coefficient of repeatability or data from which the coefficient could be calculated, with a range in values of 0.06 to 0.58. The lowest coefficient of repeatability assessed on naïve subjects alone was 0.08. These values tell us that, at best, changes greater than 0.08 can be considered clinically significant and at worst, only changes greater than 0.58 can be considered clinically significant. Six studies assessed the effect of supplementation with up to 20 mg/day lutein on macular pigment optical density measured using heterochromatic flicker photometry and the mean increase in macular pigment optical density ranged from 0.025 to 0.09. It seems reasonable to conclude that the chance of eliciting an increase in macular pigment optical density during six months of daily supplementation with between 10 and 20 mg lutein that is of sufficient magnitude to be detected by using heterochromatic flicker photometry on an individual basis is small. Commercially available heterochromatic flicker photometers for macular pigment optical density assessment in the clinical environment appear to demonstrate particularly poor coefficient of repeatability values. Clinicians should exercise caution when considering the purchase of these instruments for potential monitoring of macular pigment optical density in response to supplementation in individual patients.

TRial of an Educational intervention on patients' knowledge of Atrial fibrillation and anticoagulant therapy, INR control, and outcome of Treatment with warfarin (TREAT)

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with a high risk of stroke are recommended anticoagulation with warfarin. However, the benefit of warfarin is dependent upon time spent within the target therapeutic range (TTR) of their international normalised ratio (INR) (2.0 to 3.0). AF patients possess limited knowledge of their disease and warfarin treatment and this can impact on INR control. Education can improve patients' understanding of warfarin therapy and factors which affect INR control. Methods/Design Randomised controlled trial of an intensive educational intervention will consist of group sessions (between 2-8 patients) containing standardised information about the risks and benefits associated with OAC therapy, lifestyle interactions and the importance of monitoring and control of their International Normalised Ratio (INR). Information will be presented within an 'expert-patient' focussed DVD, revised educational booklet and patient worksheets. 200 warfarin-naïve patients who are eligible for warfarin will be randomised to either the intervention or usual care groups. All patients must have ECG-documented AF and be eligible for warfarin (according to the NICE AF guidelines). Exclusion criteria include: aged < 18 years old, contraindication(s) to warfarin, history of warfarin USE, valvular heart disease, cognitive impairment, are unable to speak/read English and disease likely to cause death within 12 months. Primary endpoint is time spent in TTR. Secondary endpoints include measures of quality of life (AF-QoL-18), anxiety and depression (HADS), knowledge of AF and anticoagulation, beliefs about medication (BMQ) and illness representations (IPQ-R). Clinical outcomes, including bleeding, stroke and interruption to anticoagulation will be recorded. All outcome measures will be assessed at baseline and 1, 2, 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Discussion More data is needed on the clinical benefit of educational intervention with AF patients receiving warfarin. Trial registration ISRCTN93952605

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Whither research in marketing?

Purpose - To introduce the contents of this special issue on research in marketing and comment on the development of the discipline in UK universities. Design/methodology/approach - Relates each paper to a taxonomy of academic research and comments on their content. Examines major trends in higher education and relates them to the fortunes of marketing educators. Findings - There are reasons to be cheerful about academic marketing in the UK: there are clearly opportunities to publish in the world's leading academic journals, increased funding for the discipline, the acceptability of a wide range of methodologies and the increasing influence of marketing. Less encouraging is the naïve and destructive competition between universities and the consequent destruction of academic development. Research limitations/implications - This is a UK perspective that depends on limited knowledge of other than a few other countries. Practical implications - There are good reasons to be positive about an academic career in marketing, but also a desperate need to tackle the naïve strategies of universities and to intervene to mend the gaps in the development of academic marketers. Originality/value - Gives an insight in to the range of research in marketing, and an insight into the opportunities and pitfalls of a career in academic marketing research. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Development and trialling of a behavioural intervention for patients with atrial fibrillation initiating oral anticoagulation:the 'treat' study

Purpose: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart arrhythmia and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. Stroke risk is commonly treated with oral anticoagulation (OAC) with a narrow therapeutic range (INR 2.0 to 3.0); which is poorly controlled in practice. Barriers to adherence include poor knowledge, and inaccurate perceptions surrounding illness and medications. Trial registration: ISRCTN93952605. Systematic review: Seven trials of educational, self-monitoring and decision aid interventions were included in a systematic review. Pooled analysis suggested education OR, 95% CI 7.89 (5.54-10.24) and self monitoring OR (95% CI) 5.47(2.55-8.39) significantly improve TTR; whereas decision aids are no more effective in reducing decision conflict than usual care, OR (95% CI) -0.10 (-0.17 to -0.02). Intervention development: The intervention was theoretically-driven (utilising the common sense and beliefs about medication models) and developed with expert patient feedback. Described using behavioural change techniques, the one-off group session included an educational booklet, ‘expert-patient’ focussed DVD, and worksheet. Methods: Ninety seven warfarin-naïve AF patients were randomised to receive the intervention (n=43), or usual care (n=54). The primary endpoint was time within therapeutic range (TTR), secondary endpoints included knowledge, quality of life (AF-QoL-18), beliefs about medication (BMQ), illness perceptions (IPQ-B), and anxiety and depression (HADS). Results: Intervention group had significantly higher TTR than usual care (78.5% vs. 66.7%; p=0.01). Knowledge changed significantly across time (F (3, 47) = 6.4; p<0.01), but not between groups (F (1, 47) = 3.3; p = 0.07). At six months knowledge predicted TTR (r=0.245; p=0.04). Illness concern negatively correlated with TTR (r= - 0.199; p=0.05). General Harm scores at one month predicted TTR (F (1, 72) = 4.08; p=0.048). There were significant differences in emotional representations (F (3, 49) = 3.3 (3, 49); p= 0.03), anxiety (F (3, 46) = 25.2; p<0.01) and depression (F (3, 46) = 37.7; p<0.01) across time. Conclusion: A theory-driven educational intervention can improve TTR in AF patients and potentially reduce the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Improving education provision for AF patients is essential to ensure efficacious treatment.

Educational intervention improves anticoagulation control in atrial fibrillation patients:the TREAT randomised trial

Background: Stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), most commonly with warfarin, requires maintenance of a narrow therapeutic target (INR 2.0 to 3.0) and is often poorly controlled in practice. Poor patient-understanding surrounding AF and its’ treatment may contribute to patient’s willingness to adhere to recommendations. Method: A theory-driven intervention, developed using patient interviews and focus groups, consisting of a one-off group session (1-6 patients) utilising an ‘expert-patient’ focussed DVD, educational booklet, self-monitoring diary and worksheet, was compared in a randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN93952605) against usual care, with patient postal follow-ups at 1, 2, 6, and 12-months. Ninety-seven warfarin-naïve AF patients were randomised to intervention (n=46, mean age (SD) 72.0 (8.2), 67.4% men), or usual care (n=51, mean age (SD) 73.7 (8.1), 62.7% men), stratified by age, sex, and recruitment centre. Primary endpoint was time within therapeutic range (TTR); secondary endpoints included knowledge, quality of life, anxiety/depression, beliefs about medication, and illness perceptions. Main findings: Intervention patients had significantly higher TTR than usual care at 6-months (76.2% vs. 71.3%; p=0.035); at 12-months these differences were not significant (76.0% vs. 70.0%; p=0.44). Knowledge increased significantly across time (F (3, 47) = 6.4; p<0.01), but there were no differences between groups (F (1, 47) = 3.3; p = 0.07). At 6-months, knowledge scores predicted TTR (r=0.245; p=0.04). Patients’ scores on subscales representing their perception of the general harm and overuse of medication, as well as the perceived necessity of their AF specific medications predicted TTR at 6- and 12-months. Conclusions: A theory-driven educational intervention significantly improves TTR in AF patients initiating warfarin during the first 6-months. Adverse clinical outcomes may potentially be reduced by improving patients’ understanding of the necessity of warfarin and reducing their perception of treatment harm. Improving education provision for AF patients is essential to ensure efficacious and safe treatment.