Bilateral oligopoly and quantity competition

Bilateral oligopoly is a strategic market game with two commodities, allowing strategic behavior on both sides of the market. When the number of buyers is large, such a game approximates a game of quantity competition played by sellers. We present examples which show that this is not typically a Cournot game. Rather, we introduce an alternative game of quantity competition (the market share game) and, appealing to results in the literature on contests, show that this yields the same equilibria as the many-buyer limit of bilateral oligopoly, under standard assumptions on costs and preferences. We also show that the market share and Cournot games have the same equilibria if and only if the price elasticity of the latter is one. These results lead to necessary and sufficient conditions for the Cournot game to be a good approximation to bilateral oligopoly with many buyers and to an ordering of total output when they are not satisfied.

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Are dead Triatoma infestans a competent vector of Trypanosoma cruzi?

After Triatoma infestans death, Trypanosoma cruzi survived several days, maintaining the ability to infect a vertebrate host. Dead bugs from an endemic area collected during an official spraying comapign showed mobile rectal tripanosomes up to 14 days after vector death. Two days after vector death2, 760 tripomastigotes were found alive in its rectal material. However, the number of mobile tripomastigotes decreased significantly from the 5th day after death. Laboratory proofs with third and fifth nymphal stage showed similar results. Living tripanosomes were found in their rectal material at 10 days in third stage and even at 30 days in fifth nymphal stage. The mean number of tripomastigotes had no changes up to 10 days in third nymphal stage and increased significantly from 1 to 10 days in the fifth stage. Conjuctival instillation as well as intraperitoneal innoculation to mice, of metacyclic forms from dead T. infestans produced infection in the vertebrate host. Present results show that human contact with dead vector highly probable in summer and living and infective T. cruzi are available for transmision in the vector.

Estudio de gestión de la finca La Esperanza, municipio de Pueblo Nuevo, Nicaragua

El presente proyecto tiene como finalidad el análisis de la Finca la Esperanza, en la localidad de Pueblo Nuevo, en la República de Nicaragua. En dicho análisis se estudian parámetros edáficos, calidad de agua y económicos, con el objetivo de poder plantear una propuesta de mejora en los rendimientos de la finca tanto a nivel económico como ambiental. La iniciativa de realizar este estudio surge de las necesidades del propio agricultor, que plantea el desarrollo rural sobre la base de actividades respetuosas con el medio. Las estrategias a los problemas sociales originados por la producción agraria industrial, como el éxodo rural, la pérdida de la agricultura convencional, la nueva función de los espacios agrarios de la sociedad, etc., se formalizaron en el denominado Desarrollo Sostenible. A nivel de finca cualquier concepción de sustentabilidad necesita que el agrosistema sea considerado como un ecosistema, en el que la investigación y la producción busquen no solamente altos rendimientos sino la optimización del sistema como un todo. Tal propósito requiere armonizar una viabilidad económica con otras variables, como estabilidad ecológica y equidad social. Para ello, los principios básicos de un sistema sostenible son: la conservación de los recursos renovables, la adaptación del cultivo al ambiente y el mantenimiento de un moderado pero sostenible nivel de producción. Como resultado de los análisis y observaciones hechas a lo largo de la estancia en la finca, se propone un plan de actuación de 10 años de duración en los cuales se procura alcanzar no únicamente unas cuotas máximas de rendimiento sino también la supervivencia de los recursos, base de la familia Videa Vanegas, propietarios.

Experimental Chagas' disease in dogs

This paper describes the development of experimental Chagas' disease in 64 out-bred young dogs. Twenty-nine animals were inoculated with the Be-62 and 35 with Be-78 Trypanosoma cruzi strains. Twenty-six were infected with blood trypomastigotes by different inoculation routes and 38 with metacyclic trypomastigotes from the vector via the conjunctival route. Twenty of the 26 dogs infected with blood trypomastigotes were autopsied during the acute phase. Eleven died spontaneously and nine were sacrificed. Six remained alive until they died suddenly (two) or were autopsied (four). Twelve of the 38 dogs infected with metacyclic trypomastigotes evolved naturally to the chronic phase and remained alive for 24-48 months. The parasitemia, clinical aspects and serology (IgM and IgG) as well as electrocardiogram, hemogram and heart anatomo-histopathologic patterns of acute and chronic cardiac forms of Chagas' disease as seen in human infections, were reproduced. The most important finding is the reproductibility of diffuse fibrosing chronic chagasic cardiopathy in all dogs infected with Be-78 T. cruzi strain autopsied between the 90th and 864th days of infection. Thus, the dog can be considered as a suitable experimental model to study Chagas' disease according to the requisites of the World Health Organization (1984). Futhermore the animal is easily obtained and easy to handle and maintain in experimental laboratory conditions.

Multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for simultaneous quantification in human plasma of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, anidulafungin, and caspofungin.

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may contribute to optimizing the efficacy and safety of antifungal therapy because of the large variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Rapid, sensitive, and selective laboratory methods are needed for efficient TDM. Quantification of several antifungals in a single analytical run may best fulfill these requirements. We therefore developed a multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method requiring 100 μl of plasma for simultaneous quantification within 7 min of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, caspofungin, and anidulafungin. Protein precipitation with acetonitrile was used in a single extraction procedure for eight analytes. After reverse-phase chromatographic separation, antifungals were quantified by electrospray ionization-triple-quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection using the positive mode. Deuterated isotopic compounds of azole antifungals were used as internal standards. The method was validated based on FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yields, matrix effect variability (<9.2%), and analytical recovery (80.1 to 107%). The method is sensitive (lower limits of azole quantification, 0.01 to 0.1 μg/ml; those of echinocandin quantification, 0.06 to 0.1 μg/ml), accurate (intra- and interassay biases of -9.9 to +5% and -4.0 to +8.8%, respectively), and precise (intra- and interassay coefficients of variation of 1.2 to 11.1% and 1.2 to 8.9%, respectively) over clinical concentration ranges (upper limits of quantification, 5 to 50 μg/ml). Thus, we developed a simple, rapid, and robust multiplex UPLC-MS/MS assay for simultaneous quantification of plasma concentrations of six antifungals and two metabolites. This offers, by optimized and cost-effective lab resource utilization, an efficient tool for daily routine TDM aimed at maximizing the real-time efficacy and safety of different recommended single-drug antifungal regimens and combination salvage therapies, as well as a tool for clinical research.

Use of glass beads and CF 11 cellulose for removal of leukocytes from malaria-infected human blood in field settings

Passage of malaria infected blood through a two-layered column composed of acid-washed glass beads and CF 11 cellulose removes white cells from parasitized blood. However, because use of glass beads and CF 11 cellulose requires filtration of infected blood separately through these two resins and the addition of ADP, the procedure is time-consuming and may be inapropriate for use in the field, especially when large numbers of blood samples are to be treated. Our modification of this process yields parasitized cells free of contaminating leukocytes, and because of its operational simplicity, large numbers of blood samples can be processed. Our procedure also compares well with those using expensive commercial Sepacell resins in its ability to separate leukocytes from whole blood. As a test of usefulness in molecular biologic investigations, the parasites obtained from the blood of malaria-infected patients using the modified procedure yield genomic DNA whose single copy gene, the circumsporozite gene, efficiently amplifies by polymerase chain reaction.

Tritordeum, wheat and triticale yield components under multi-local mediterranean drought conditions

The species x location interaction was of great importance in explaining the behaviour of genetic material. The study presented here shows, for the first time, the performance, under field conditions of the new tritordeum species, compared to wheat and triticale in a wide range of Mediterranean countries (Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia). The results obtained revealed that despite the diversity of environmental conditions, the main differences in yield were due to genotypes, especially to differences between species. The multi-local study with different growth conditions revealed important information about the water availability effect on yield. In the lowest yielding environments (Tunisia rainfed), Tritordeum and triticale yields were equivalent. However under better growth conditions (Spain), tritordeum yield was shown to be lower than wheat and triticale. Interestingly, when water limitation was extended during the pre-anthesis period, differences in tritordeum versus wheat-triticale yield rate were larger than when water stress occurred during anthesis. These variations were explained by the fact that kernel weight has been found as the limiting factor for yield determination in tritordeum, and a delay in the anthesis date may have been the cause for the low kernel weight and low yield under Mediterranean drought conditions. Such differences in yield between tritordeum and wheat or triticale could be explained by the fact that tritordeum is a relatively new species and far fewer resources have been devoted to its improvement when compared to wheat and triticale. Our results suggest that breeding efforts should be directed to an earlier anthesis date and a longer grain filling period. tritordeum proved to have possibilities to be grown under drought environments as a new crop, since its performance was quite close to wheat and triticale. Besides, it has qualitative added values that may improve farmers' income per unit land.

40Ar/39Ar dating of Penninic Front tectonic displacement (W Alps) during the Lower Oligocene (31-34 Ma)

Direct absolute dating of the Penninic Frontal Thrust tectonic motion is achieved using the Ar-40/Ar-39 technique in the Pelvoux Crystalline Massif (Western Alps). The dated phengites were formed syn-kinematically in shear zones. They underline the brittle-ductile stretching lineation, pressure-shadow fibres and slickensides consistent with underthrusting of the European continental slab below the propagating Penninic Thrust. Chlorite-phengite thermobarometry yields 10-15 km and T similar to 280 degrees C, while Ar-40/Ar-39 phengite ages mainly range between 34 and 30 Ma, with one younger age at 27 Ma. This Early Oligocene age range matches a major tectonic rearrangement of the Alpine chain. Preservation of prograde Ar-40/Ar-39 ages is ascribed to passive exhumation of the Pelvoux shear zone network, sandwiched between more external thrusts and the Penninic Front reactivated as an E-dipping detachment fault. Partial resetting in the Low Temperature part of argon spectra below 24 Ma is ascribed to brittle deformation and alteration of phengites.

Cost evaluation of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging versus coronary angiography for the work-up of coronary artery disease

Background: CMR has recently emerged as a robust and reliable technique to assess coronary artery disease (CAD). A negative perfusion CMR test predicts low event rates of 0.3-0.5%/year. Invasive coronary angiography (CA) remains the "gold standard" for the evaluation of CAD in many countries.Objective: Assessing the costs of the two strategies in the European CMR registry for the work-up of known or suspected CAD from a health care payer perspective. Strategy 1) a CA to all patients or 2) a CA only to patients who are diagnosed positive for ischemia in a prior CMR.Method and results: Using data of the European CMR registry (20 hospitals, 11'040 consecutive patients) we calculated the proportion of patients who were diagnosed positive (20.6%), uncertain (6.5%), and negative (72.9%) after the CMR test in patients with known or suspected CAD (n=2'717). No other medical test was performed to patients who were negative for ischemia. Positive diagnosed patients had a coronary angiography. Those with uncertain diagnosis had additional tests (84.7%: stress echocardiography, 13.1%: CCT, 2.3% SPECT), these costs were added to the CMR strategy costs. Information from costs for tests in Germany and Switzerland were used. A sensibility analysis was performed for inpatient CA. For costs see figure. Results - costs.Discussion: The CMR strategy costs less than the CA strategy for the health insurance systems both, in Germany and Switzerland. While lower in costs, the CMR strategy is a non-invasive one, does not expose to radiation, and yields additional information on cardiac function, viability, valves, and great vessels. Developing the use of CMR instead of CA might imply some reduction in costs together with superior patient safety and comfort, and a better utilization of resources at the hospital level. Document introduit le : 01.12.2011

Trypanosoma cruzi in the anal glands of urban opossums: I- isolation and experimental infections

Opossums (Didelphis marsupialis) captured in intensely urbanized areas of the city of Caracas, Venezuela, were found infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The developmental cycle of trypomastigote-epimastigote-metacyclic infective trypomastigote, usually occurring in the intestine of the triatomine vector, was taking place in the anal odoriferous glands of the opossums. Material from the glands, inoculated in young, healthy opossums and white mice by different routes, subcutaneously, intraperitoneally, orally, and into the eye, induced T. cruzi infections in all animals. Parasitemia, invasion of cardiac and skeletal muscle, and intracellular multiplication of amastigotes were observed. Inoculation of metacyclics from anal glands, cultured in LIT medium, gave equivalent results. All opossums survived; all mice died. Excreta of opossums may thus transmit Chagas' disease by contamination, even in urban areas where insect vectors are not present.

The haemoculture of Trypanosoma minasense chagas, 1908

Trypanosoma minasense was isolated for the first time in blood axenic culture from a naturally infected marmoset, Callithrix penicillata, from Brazil. The parasite grew profusely in an overlay of Roswell Park Memorial Institute medium plus 20% foetal bovine serum, on Novy, McNeal and Nicolle medium (NNN) , at 27°C, with a peak around 168 hr. The morphometry of cultural forms of T. minasense, estimates of cell population size and comparative growth in four different media overlays always with NNN, were studied. The infectivity of cultural forms to marmosets (C. penicillata and C. jacchus) and transformation of epimastigotes into metacyclic-like forms in axenic culture in the presence of chitin derivates (chitosan) were evaluated.

Estudi de comportaments socials d'aixams robòtics amb aplicació a la neteja d'espais no estructurats

La intel·ligència d’eixams és una branca de la intel·ligència artificial que està agafant molta força en els últims temps, especialment en el camp de la robòtica. En aquest projecte estudiarem el comportament social sorgit de les interaccions entre un nombre determinat de robots autònoms en el camp de la neteja de grans superfícies. Un cop triat un escenari i un robot que s’ajustin als requeriments del projecte, realitzarem una sèrie de simulacions a partir de diferents polítiques de cerca que ens permetran avaluar el comportament dels robots per unes condicions inicials de distribució dels robots i zones a netejar. A partir dels resultats obtinguts serem capaços de determinar quina configuració genera millors resultats.