Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Proposta de modelo de interação da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte e empresas do setor de petróleo

Operational procedures may negatively interfere in negotiation and execution regarding universities and business companies. In some cases it may even derail business interaction. Thus, aiming to overcome this and other barriers a university-industry interaction model was structured. The model enhances the appropriation of technological solutions on behalf of enterprises, as well as aim to improve the quality of teaching and research done at the university. In order to conduct a case study, sampling considering the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) was made as well as the Oil and Gas sector. For data collection questionnaires, classroom observation, document analysis, semi-structured interviews were used. The study describes the companies as well as the internal organization of UFRN in their interaction context. The diagnosis related to past interactions as well as the expectations of the companies and the university s internal subjects regarding the university-industry relationship were also studied. Thus, specific questionnaires were applied for the three types of groups: researchers, managers and business companies. These subjects pointed out that the great deal of barriers they identified were related to issues regarding the university internal management. Given these barriers, the critical factors were then identified in order to overcome this reality. Among the nine critical factors only one belongs to the macro environment, while the remaining factors are related to organizational issues present in the university context. It was possible to formulate a university-business interaction model one the researched focused on the case study results and contribution from a theoretical framework that was enabled trough literature review. The model considers all business collaboration mechanisms; it focuses on a particular strategic productive sector and provides a co-evolution vision over time, according to the sector´s development strategy. The need for institutionalizing the relationship with the companies involved is pointed out. The proposed model considers all the critical factors identified by the research; it aims long-term relationship with the company and integrates teaching, research and extension actions. The model implementation was also considered. It was seen that it must be done in three phases. The phases will be defined by the level of maturity in the relationship between the university and the companies. Thus, a framework was developed in order to assess the interaction level regarding company institutionalization. Whilst structuring the model was a concern with replication came up. It was pointed out that this model should not only serve to this specific case study situation. So the final result is a model of university-industry relationship appropriate in the first instance, for UFRN, but has applicability, in general, to any Brazilian university

Avaliação da presença de osteopatia decorremte do diabetes tipo 1 em criança e adolecentes do Rio Grande do Norte

Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and osteoposes are chronic diseases with great socioeconomic consequences, mainly due to the late complications and consequent disabilities. The potential effects of DM on bone metabolism remain a very conroversial issue, and disagreement exists with regard to the clinical implications of diabetic osteopenia and the mechanism of its ocurrence. The issue is further complicated by the contribuicion of the especific factors, such as duration of disease an dthe degree of metabolic control. The objective of this study is to identify the osteopathy in children and adolescents with DM 1 assisted in the hospital of pediatrics, UFRN, through biochemical markers of bone and mineral metabolism and the extent of bone mineral density. The study was composed by 74 diabetics type 1 patients (DM1) of both gender and aged 6 to 20 yars. Normoglicêmic group was composed by 97 healthy subjects of both genders, which showed the same age range of DM1, in addition to same socioeconomic class. These individuals qere students from the networks of public education in the city of Natal-RN, randomly invited to paticipate in our study. Both groups DM1 and NG were divided intofour subgroups, according to the classification of tanner , T1, T2, T3, T4 for achieving a benchmark. Diabetic individuals showed up with a poor glycemic control. the group DN1 T4 showed an incresead value for total protein, albumin, urea and microalbumiuria are predictors of grumelura injury in DM1 patients . The total alkaline phosphatase activitywas kept on high levels for both groups because they are in a stature development age. For osteocalcin there were decreased levels for groups Dm1 T1, T2, and T3 when compared to their NG (s), suggesting that this decrease could be associated with reduction in the number and/or differentiation os osteoblasts thereby contributing to reducing bone formation. There were no changes in the activity of TRAP. The serum concentrations of total and ionized calcium, phosphorus and magnesium were included within the RV. It was observed that the BMD (Z- SCORE ) has always been within the RV for both groups, despite to DM1 T4. Taking all together, our results support the hypothesis that children and adolescents with type 1 DM present the risk in the long run to suffer a reduction in the bone mass, associated to poor glicemic control and disease duration. It could limit the bone growth and increase the probality of development of osteopenia, as well as other complications surch as retinopathy and renal failure

Finanças públicas na nova ordem constitucional brasileira: uma análise comportamental dos municípios potiguares, nos anos antecedentes e posteriores à lei de responsabilidade fiscal LRF

The object of the present dissertation is to analyze the behavior of the public finances of the districts of the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), taking as reference a period fundamentally previous to the implementation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law LRF, comparatively to the first years, immediately after the advent of the mentioned institutional milestone. The central hypothesis of this study proposes that, from the institutions' viewpoint, the LRF sets securely consistent rules, in the orchestration of the behavior of the municipal revenues and expenses. These regulations, on the other hand, might be effective and reach the districts of the RN indiscriminately, apart from stabilizing tendencies and which are sustainable in the long run. In spite of this, the indicators calculated reveal that the districts researched show, during all the period under analysis, a diminished capacity of self-tax collection , and consequently, a high participation of the intergovernmental transfers in the composition of the current revenues. This behavior indicates that the goal of strengthening the municipal public finances, forecast in the LRF, tends to be only partially accomplished, due to the fiscal decentralism. The analysis and interpretation of the data are conducted from the literature of institutionalist orientation and in descriptive statistical tools applied to the municipal strata of the state of Rio Grande do Norte. Further on, it's used the econometrical method Pooled OLS, which demands the elimination of the municipal strata in order to allow the use of the model, in the attempt to strengthen and/or ratify the results of the research. Finally, the evidence reached in the dissertation show that the LRF brings better conditions to the potiguar municipal public finances, predominantly to the economically stronger districts; whereas the less dynamic municipal entities show rather divergent evidence, that is, their economies seem to be more oriented to a more pronounced state participation; therefore, it generates in the state of RN a certain antithesis in the results reached in the dissertation

Fazer a ponte para a escola de todos(as)

The purpose of this study is to understand what are the matrix elements in which everyday activities of social author/authors, actor/actors and actress/actresses are embedded, in order to carry out the Escola da Ponte s political and pedagogic process (PPP). Thus, the object of this study is to reflect on an experience developed in a public school supported by the Portuguese State within the scenario of institutions that are committed to building up a school of the people by investing in democratization and community participation in their management process. The methodological course of action was targeted at the presuppositions of qualitative research (WOODS, 1999; BURGESS, 1997; MILLS, 1982; OLIVEIRA, 1998; BOGDAN and BIKLEN, 1994; MACEDO, 2000; CASAL, 1996; GEERTZ, 2000), with data collected from random word association (MACHADO and CARVALHO, 2003), the discourse of the interviewed (KAUFMANN, 1996; SILVA, 2006; 2002), observation notes and documents (ELIAS, 1997). Based on a multiple reference and theoretical framework, the investigation revealed elements that are construed as the raw material and pillars supporting the bridge of a school of the people, as well as the self-organization of the school community which emerges as a dimension that binds together all the elements and brings new arrangements into the school dynamics by moving from the individual to the society (DUPUY, 1990). Along this line, the central argument is that in the short and long run the public school quality does not spring from macro educational policies, nor from ephemeral mass-production programs, projects or governmental policies, but from the intent of the professionals working there in becoming authors and characters in the process of building up and carrying out the PPP. The Project has been conceived in the light of the needs and intentionality of the community whose support comes from the participation and social control held by the students families and the community s power to force to action public administration central agencies aiming at having the State fulfill its responsibilities

Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.

Preferências e escolhas românticas entre universitários

Several studies have found different patterns of preferences to men and women for short term and long term relationship romantic partners. It is known that the preferences vary with the sex of individuals, the expected involvement level of the relationship and according to the perceptions that subjects have about themselves. In the present study, we investigate whether the preferences typically founded for sexes are also founded between Brazilian undergraduate students. We also investigated if the individuals choose partners in accord of the sex preferences and if the ideal preferences are really expressed in real choices. For these investigations, 370 undergraduate students described profiles of an ideal partner for a short-term and a long-term relationship, through the joint evaluation of nine characteristics. Each ideal s profile has been described over three simulations, in which the amount of points available to be invested were limited and gradually reduced. After the descriptions of these profiles, the participants described the current or previous partner (if they were not in a relationship) and performed a self-assessment with the same characteristics used in the description of preferences. Overall, the results obtained in several countries were observed in Brazil. For short-term relationships men prioritize physical attributes and women value physical and personal attributes. For long-term, personal traits gained in importance on masculine preferences and women emphasized personal traits and the partner disposition to acquire resources. We also identified similar preferences profiles for both sexes and that the romantic preferences reflect similarities with the own individual s characteristics, in addition to the typical sexual preferences expected for the Parental Investment Theory. When evaluated their real partners, men considerate them more physically attractive than themselves but less intelligent, good humorous and ambi tion/willing to work. Women, in turn, described their partners as good as them. Finally, we observed equivalence between characteristics of the subjects and those of its partners, this effect being more pronounced among men. The last partners were described only as less sincere. The interpretation of the most part of our results was possible from evolutionist s and socio-cultural s explanations and was discussed under the two perspectives. We conclude this study stressing that the traditional romantic preferences occur in Brazil and that the sex, the kind of relationship and the vision that people have about their own characteristics affect the preferences, which are expressed in the real partner choices

Investigação da influência do cochilo na aprendizagem escolar

There is a known positive effect of nocturnal sleep for brain plasticity and the consolidation of declarative and procedural memories, as well as for the facilitation of insight in problem solving. However, a possible pro-mnemonic effect of daytime naps after learning is yet to be properly characterized. The goal of this project was to evaluate the influence of daytime naps on learning among elementary and middleschool students, measuring the one-day (acute), and semester-long (chronic) effects of post-learning naps on performance. In the Acute Day-Nap condition, the elementary students were exposed to a class and then randomly divided into three groups: Nap (N), Game-based English Class (GBEC) and Traditional English Class (TEC). There were 2 multiple-choice follow-up tests to evaluate students performance in the short and long runs. In the short run, the N group outperformed the other two groups; and such tendency was maintained in the long run. In the chronic condition, the middle-school students were randomly separated into two groups: Nap (N) and Class (C) and were observed during one academic term. The N group had increased school performance in relation to the C group. In the statistical analyses, independent t-tests were applied considering the scores significant when p<0,05, expressed in terms of average ± average standard error. Results can be interpreted as an indication that a single daytime nap opportunity is not enough to ensure learning benefits. Therefore, more research is needed in order to advocate in favor of a daytime nap as a pedagogical means of promoting enhanced school performance

Charles Sanders Peirce: ciência enquanto semiótica

O diagrama do signo, quando aplicado no entendimento da ciência, dá lugar a uma correlação original entre abdução, dedução e indução. A união da abdução e da dedução consiste numa Forma geral de possibilidade lógica. Enquanto que a indução estabelece, no decorrer da experiência, a razão de freqüência no universo dos fatos das conseqüências previstas na representação geral. Como uma construção formal, a ciência enquanto semiótica sustenta-se, mesmo tendo por objeto um universo do puro acaso. Todavia, no interior do conjunto total do sistema filosófico de Peirce, a ciência só adquire significado se corresponder à realidade da Natureza. A garantia desta correspondência estatisticamente relevante seria o fato de o instinto humano pertencer ao mesmo estágio de evolução do universo todo.

Oral lichen planus versus epithelial dysplasia: difficulties in diagnosis

O diagnóstico histopatológico do líquen plano bucal não é fácil, pois alguns casos de displasia epitelial podem apresentar características bastante semelhantes às do líquen plano. OBJETIVO: Comparar as alterações celulares sugestivas de malignidade presentes no líquen plano bucal com as da displasia epitelial. MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Cortes histológicos de líquen plano bucal e displasia, corados com hematoxilina-eosina, foram analisados por meio da microscopia de luz. RESULTADOS: A análise de variância (alfa=5%) revelou haver diferença estatisticamente significante entre o número médio de alterações celulares no líquen plano bucal (5,83±1,61) e na displasia epitelial (4,46±1,26). O teste de qui-quadrado não mostrou diferença estatisticamente significante entre o líquen plano bucal e a displasia epitelial em relação às seguintes alterações celulares: aumento da relação núcleo/citoplasma, hipercromatismo nuclear, distribuição irregular da cromatina e núcleos aumentados (p>0,05). CONCLUSÃO: Algumas alterações celulares sugestivas de malignidade presentes no líquen plano bucal também podem ser encontradas na displasia epitelial, dificultando o seu diagnóstico e, consequentemente enfatizando a importância do acompanhamento a longo prazo dos pacientes com a doença.

Ciclos clássicos num ambiente de racionalidade limitada

O presente trabalho toma como ponto de partida o modelo macrodinâmico de Richard M. Goodwin, apresentado no clássico artigo A Growth Cycle (1967). Neste modelo a interação entre distribuição de renda e acumulação de capital gera um ciclo de crescimento que oscila em torno de uma trajetória de crescimento equilibrado. O objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar a possibilidade de existência de ciclos goodwinianos com heterogeneidade de salários e de taxas de lucro. Essa análise é realizada considerando o processo de concorrência entre trabalhadores num ambiente de racionalidade limitada. Para formalizar o processo de concorrência entre trabalhadores foram utilizados dois recursos: (i) a alegoria das ilhas , que tem sido amplamente adotada na macroeconomia moderna, a fim de apreender situações de informação imperfeita; e (ii) os instrumentos analíticos desenvolvidos pela teoria dos jogos evolucionários aplicada a ambientes sociais. O modelo construído combina o modelo de Goodwin com uma formalização estilizada do fluxo de trabalho como um processo de imitação num ambiente de racionalidade limitada (dinâmica de replicação num contexto social). Neste modelo demonstra-se a possibilidade de o sistema econômico não convergir para um estado de equilíbrio de longo prazo e a possibilidade do sistema econômico convergir para um ciclo goodwiniano caracterizado por heterogeneidade de salários e de taxas de lucro.

IMPORTANCE OF CONTROLLING THE STRESS IN THE VALIDATION OF BIOLOGICAL RESULTS

The stress syndrome includes ample phenomena, characterized by complex neuroendocrinological alterations. Such alterations, in the long run, give rise to important modifications in reply of different organs and tissues to diverse agonists, specially sympathicommentic. These alterations, at least partially, are part of an ''adjustment mechanism'' of the tissues. Thus this possibility of obtaining altered responses in function of stress leads to the need of special care in the prevention and control of stressogenic stimuli in the process of research. Taking cave of preventing stressogenic stimuli, it becomes possible to determine a profile of trustworthy replies, considered as standard From such reply standards, toe can know more clearly what is a ''normal'' response or what is a response ''altered'' by some factor, specially stress.

Coastal Marine Mapping as an Ecosystem Based Management - the case study of the Baixada Santista Region - São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Le progrès technique chez Joan Robinson : un essai de systématisation et de formalisation

This paper deals with Joan Robinson's contributions to the issue of technical progress and her attempts of treating this subject in accordance to the Keynesian theory of employment and income distribution, mainly in the long run. This paper aims to review this aspect of her work and to establish a systematisation and a formalisation of her approach. At the same time the paper exposes the problems she faced - and did not always solve. Looking through her main contributions, the paper concludes that she used different criteria for the classification of innovations and that they depended on the specific situations described by the models in which she used the classification.

Technical Progress in Joan Robinson's View: An attempt at systematisation and formalisation

This paper deals with Joan Robinson's contributions to the issue of technical progress and her attempts at treating this subject in accordance with the Keynesian theory of employment and income distribution, mainly in the long run. The paper aims to review this aspect of her work and to establish a systematisation and a formalisation of her approach. At the same time, the paper exposes the problems she faced - but did not always solve. Looking through her main contributions, the paper concludes that she used different criteria for the classification of innovations and that they depended on the specific situations described by the models in which she used the classification.