The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis. Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data. Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections. Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

Relative entropy rate based model selection for linear hybrid system filters of uncertain nonlinear systems

Hybrid system representations have been exploited in a number of challenging modelling situations, including situations where the original nonlinear dynamics are too complex (or too imprecisely known) to be directly filtered. Unfortunately, the question of how to best design suitable hybrid system models has not yet been fully addressed, particularly in the situations involving model uncertainty. This paper proposes a novel joint state-measurement relative entropy rate based approach for design of hybrid system filters in the presence of (parameterised) model uncertainty. We also present a design approach suitable for suboptimal hybrid system filters. The benefits of our proposed approaches are illustrated through design examples and simulation studies.

Non-linear model predictive control for UAVs with slung/swung load

Suspended loads on UAVs can provide significant benefits to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction. The load impact on the underlying system dynamics should not be neglected as significant feedback forces may be induced on the vehicle during certain flight manoeuvres. Much research has focused on standard multi-rotor position and attitude control with and without a slung load. However, predictive control schemes, such as Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC), have not yet been fully explored. To this end, we present software and flight system architecture to test controller for safe and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung load in three dimensions.

A non-linear interface element model for thin layer high adhesive mortared masonry

A nonlinear interface element modelling method is formulated for the prediction of deformation and failure of high adhesive thin layer polymer mortared masonry exhibiting failure of units and mortar. Plastic flow vectors are explicitly integrated within the implicit finite element framework instead of relying on predictor–corrector like approaches. The method is calibrated using experimental data from uniaxial compression, shear triplet and flexural beam tests. The model is validated using a thin layer mortared masonry shear wall, whose experimental datasets are reported in the literature and is used to examine the behaviour of thin layer mortared masonry under biaxial loading.

A linear root water uptake model

A model of root water extraction is proposed, in which a linear variation of extraction rate with depth is assumed. Five crops are chosen for simulation studies of the model, and soil moisture depletion under optimal conditions from different layers for each crop is calculated. Similar calculations are also made using the constant extraction rate model. Rooting depth is assumed to vary linearly with potential evapotranspiration for each crop during the vegetative phase. The calculated depletion patterns are compared with measured mean depletion patterns for each crop. It is shown that the constant extraction rate model results in large errors in the prediction of soil moisture depletion, while the proposed linear extraction rate model gives satisfactory results. Hypothetical depletion patterns predicted by the model in combination with a moisture tension-dependent sink term developed elsewhere are indicated.

Optimal resource allocation in conflicts with the Lanchester linear law (2,1) model

This paper presents a detailed analysis of a model for military conflicts where the defending forces have to determine an optimal partitioning of available resources to counter attacks from an adversary in two different fronts in an area fire situation. Lanchester linear law attrition model is used to develop the dynamical equations governing the variation in force strength. Here we address a static resource allocation problem namely, Time-Zero-Allocation (TZA) where the resource allocation is done only at the initial time. Numerical examples are given to support the analytical results.

Non-linear couette flow with heat transfer using the B-G-K model

In recent years a large number of investigators have devoted their efforts to the study of flow and heat transfer in rarefied gases, using the BGK [1] model or the Boltzmann kinetic equation. The velocity moment method which is based on an expansion of the distribution function as a series of orthogonal polynomials in velocity space, has been applied to the linearized problem of shear flow and heat transfer by Mott-Smith [2] and Wang Chang and Uhlenbeck [3]. Gross, Jackson and Ziering [4] have improved greatly upon this technique by expressing the distribution function in terms of half-range functions and it is this feature which leads to the rapid convergence of the method. The full-range moments method [4] has been modified by Bhatnagar [5] and then applied to plane Couette flow using the B-G-K model. Bhatnagar and Srivastava [6] have also studied the heat transfer in plane Couette flow using the linearized B-G-K equation. On the other hand, the half-range moments method has been applied by Gross and Ziering [7] to heat transfer between parallel plates using Boltzmann equation for hard sphere molecules and by Ziering [83 to shear and heat flow using Maxwell molecular model. Along different lines, a moment method has been applied by Lees and Liu [9] to heat transfer in Couette flow using Maxwell's transfer equation rather than the Boltzmann equation for distribution function. An iteration method has been developed by Willis [10] to apply it to non-linear heat transfer problems using the B-G-K model, with the zeroth iteration being taken as the solution of the collisionless kinetic equation. Krook [11] has also used the moment method to formulate the equivalent continuum equations and has pointed out that if the effects of molecular collisions are described by the B-G-K model, exact numerical solutions of many rarefied gas-dynamic problems can be obtained. Recently, these numerical solutions have been obtained by Anderson [12] for the non-linear heat transfer in Couette flow,

Linear and nonlinear optical properties of cumulenes and polyenynes: a model exact study

Model exact static and frequency-dependent polarizabilities, static second hyperpolarizabilities and THG coefficents of cumulenes and polyenynes, calculated within the correlated Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) model defined over the pi-framework are reported and compared with the results for the polyenes. It is found that for the same chain length, the polarizabilities and THG coefficients of the cumulenes are largest and those of the polyenynes smallest with the polyenes having an intermediate value. The optical gap of the infinite cumulene is lowest (0.75 eV) and is associated with a low transition dipole moment for an excitation involving transfer of an electron between the two orthogonal conjugated pi-systems. The polyenynes have the largest optical gap (4.37 eV), with the magnitude being nearly independent of the chain length. This excitation involves charge transfer between the conjugated bonds in the terminal triple bond. Chain length and frequency dependence of alpha(ij) and gamma(ijkl) of these systems are also reported. The effect of a heteroatom on the polarizability and THG coefficients of acetylenic systems is also reported. It has been found that the presence of the heteroatom reduces the polarizability and THG coefficients of these systems, an effect opposite to that found in the polyenes and cyanine dyes. This result has been associated with the different nature of the charge transfer in the acetylenic systems.

Vortex sheet simulation of a plane �canonical� mixing layer

Discrete vortex simulations of the mixing layer carried out in the past have usually involved large induced velocity fluctuations, and thus demanded rather long time-averaging to obtain satisfactory values of Reynolds stresses and third-order moments. This difficulty has been traced here, in part, to the use of discrete vortices to model what in actuality are continuous vortex sheets. We propose here a novel two-dimensional vortex sheet technique for computing mixing layer flow in the limit of infinite Reynolds number. The method divides the vortex sheet into constant-strength linear elements, whose motions are computed using the Biot-Savart law. The downstream far-field is modelled by a steady vorticity distribution derived by application of conical similarity from the solution obtained in a finite computational domain. The boundary condition on the splitter plate is satisfied rigorously using a doublet sheet. The computed large-scale roll-up of the vortex sheet is qualitatively similar to experimentally obtained shadow-graphs of the plane turbulent mixing layer. The mean streamwise velocity profile and the growth rate agree well with experimental data. The presently computed Reynolds stresses and third-order moments are comparable with experimental and previous vortex-dynamical results, without using any external parameter (such as the vortex core-size) of the kind often used in the latter. The computed autocorrelations are qualitatively similar to experimental results along the top and bottom edges of the mixing layer, and show a well-defined periodicity along the centreline. The accuracy of the present computation is independently established by demonstrating negligibly small changes in the five invariants (including the Hamiltonian) in vortex dynamics.

Modelling plane mixing layers using vortex points and sheets

We present here a critical assessment of two vortex approaches (both two-dimensional) to the modelling of turbulent mixing layers. In the first approach the flow is represented by point vortices, and in the second it is simulated as the evolution of a continuous vortex sheet composed of short linear elements or ''panels''. The comparison is based on fresh simulations using approximately the same number of elements in either model, paying due attention in both to the boundary conditions far downstream as well as those on the splitter plate from which the mixing layer issues. The comparisons show that, while both models satisfy the well-known invariants of vortex dynamics approximately to the same accuracy, the vortex panel model, although ultimately not convergent, leads to smoother roll-up and values of stresses and moments that are in closer agreement with the experiment, and has a higher computational efficiency for a given degree of convergence on moments. The point vortex model, while faster for a given number of elements, produces an unsatisfactory roll-up which (for the number of elements used) is rendered worse by the incorporation of the Van der Vooren correction for sheet curvature.

Phase diagram of a two-species lattice model with a linear instability

We discuss the properties of a one-dimensional lattice model of a driven system with two species of particles in which the mobility of one species depends on the density of the other. This model was introduced by Lahiri and Ramaswamy (Phys. Rev. Lett., 79, 1150 (1997)) in the context of sedimenting colloidal crystals, and its continuum version was shown to exhibit an instability arising from linear gradient couplings. In this paper we review recent progress in understanding the full phase diagram of the model. There are three phases. In the first, the steady state can be determined exactly along a representative locus using the condition of detailed balance. The system shows phase separation of an exceptionally robust sort, termed strong phase separation, which survives at all temperatures. The second phase arises in the threshold case where the first species evolves independently of the second, but the fluctuations of the first influence the evolution of the second, as in the passive scalar problem. The second species then shows phase separation of a delicate sort, in which long-range order coexists with fluctuations which do not damp down in the large-size limit. This fluctuation-dominated phase ordering is associated with power law decays in cluster size distributions and a breakdown of the Porod law. The third phase is one with a uniform overall density, and along a representative locus the steady state is shown to have product measure form. Density fluctuations are transported by two kinematic waves, each involving both species and coupled at the nonlinear level. Their dissipation properties are governed by the symmetries of these couplings, which depend on the overall densities. In the most interesting case,, the dissipation of the two modes is characterized by different critical exponents, despite the nonlinear coupling.

Parabolized stability equation models for predicting large-scale mixing noise of turbulent round jets

Parabolized stability equation (PSE) models are being deve loped to predict the evolu-tion of low-frequency, large-scale wavepacket structures and their radiated sound in high-speed turbulent round jets. Linear PSE wavepacket models were previously shown to be in reasonably good agreement with the amplitude envelope and phase measured using a microphone array placed just outside the jet shear layer. 1,2 Here we show they also in very good agreement with hot-wire measurements at the jet center line in the potential core,for a different set of experiments. 3 When used as a model source for acoustic analogy, the predicted far field noise radiation is in reasonably good agreement with microphone measurements for aft angles where contributions from large -scale structures dominate the acoustic field. Nonlinear PSE is then employed in order to determine the relative impor-tance of the mode interactions on the wavepackets. A series of nonlinear computations with randomized initial conditions are use in order to obtain bounds for the evolution of the modes in the natural turbulent jet flow. It was found that n onlinearity has a very limited impact on the evolution of the wavepackets for St≥0. 3. Finally, the nonlinear mechanism for the generation of a low-frequency mode as the difference-frequency mode 4,5 of two forced frequencies is investigated in the scope of the high Reynolds number jets considered in this paper.

Model-free simulations for compressible mixing layer

Confined supersonic mixing layer is explored through model-free simulations. Both two- and three-dimensional spatio-temporal simulations were carried out employing higher order finite difference scheme as well as finite volume scheme based on open source software (OpenFOAM) to understand the effect of three-dimensionality on the development of mixing layer. It is observed that although the instantaneous structures exhibit three-dimensional features, the average pressure and velocities are predominantly two-dimensional. The computed wall pressures match well with experimental results fairly well, although three-dimensional simulation underpredicts the wall pressure in the downstream direction. The self-similarity of the velocity profiles is obtained within the duct length for all the simulations. Although the mixing layer thicknesses differ among different simulations, their growth rate is nearly the same. Significant differences are observed for species and temperature distribution between two- and three-dimensional calculations, and two-dimensional calculations do not match the experimental observation of smooth variations in species mass fraction profiles as reported in literature. Reynolds stress distribution for three-dimensional calculations show profiles with less peak values compared to two-dimensional calculations; while normal stress anisotropy is higher for three-dimensional case.

State estimation in power systems using linear model infinity norm-based trust region approach

State estimation is one of the most important functions in an energy control centre. An computationally efficient state estimator which is free from numerical instability/ill-conditioning is essential for security assessment of electric power grid. Whereas approaches to successfully overcome the numerical ill-conditioning issues have been proposed, an efficient algorithm for addressing the convergence issues in the presence of topological errors is yet to be evolved. Trust region (TR) methods have been successfully employed to overcome the divergence problem to certain extent. In this study, case studies are presented where the conventional algorithms including the existing TR methods would fail to converge. A linearised model-based TR method for successfully overcoming the convergence issues is proposed. On the computational front, unlike the existing TR methods for state estimation which employ quadratic models, the proposed linear model-based estimator is computationally efficient because the model minimiser can be computed in a single step. The model minimiser at each step is computed by minimising the linearised model in the presence of TR and measurement mismatch constraints. The infinity norm is used to define the geometry of the TR. Measurement mismatch constraints are employed to improve the accuracy. The proposed algorithm is compared with the quadratic model-based TR algorithm with case studies on the IEEE 30-bus system, 205-bus and 514-bus equivalent systems of part of Indian grid.