A költségvetési politika fenntarthatósága és a szabályalapú gazdaságpolitika (The sustainability of fiscal policy and a rule-based economic policy)

A költségvetési pénzügyek irodalmában a fenntarthatóság koncepciója csak az elmúlt két-három évtizedben került újra a vizsgálódás fókuszába. Ennek oka kettős. Az 1960-as évek végéig a fegyelmezett fiskális politikai gyakorlat nem igényelte annak állandó napirenden tartását. Csak az olajválságok idejére eső és azután állandósulni látszó költségvetési hiányok és a növekvő államadósság-állományok, illetve az ezek okán erősödő adósságkockázat irányította újra a figyelmet a költségvetési fegyelem fenntartásának fontosságára. Ezt a változást a közgazdaságtudományi elmélettörténetben beállott gyökeres változás kísérte. Az aktív keresletmenedzsment bírálataként megfogalmazódó monetarista kritika, illetve annak radikálisabb újklasszikus változata, a politikai döntéshozókról (és így a diszkrecionális költségvetési politika hatásosságáról) lesújtó véleményt fogalmazott meg, ami azután az aktív intézkedések korlátozásának irányába terelte a gazdaságpolitika alakítóit is. A következőkben e kettős – a fiskális politikai gyakorlat és a közgazdasági elméletek területén bekövetkezett –fordulat bemutatására vállalkozunk az Akadémiai Kiadónál megjelenő Költségvetési pénzügyek – Hiány, államadósság, fenntarthatóság című kötetünk bizonyos részeinek felhasználásával.

Gazdasági versenyképességet támogató pályázatok eredményessége az NFT és az ÚMFT keretében = The effectiveness of grants supporting economic development under hungary's national development plans

A Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem kutatócsoportja által végzett kutatás során arra a kérdésre kerestük a választ, hogy a Nemzeti Fejlesztési Terv (NFT) és az Új Magyarország Fejlesztési Terv (ÚMFT) keretében létrehozott, kis- és középvállalatok számára kialakított gazdaságfejlesztési pályázatok milyen hatékonysággal működnek. Hogyan volt képes a rendszer beépíteni az NFT Gazdasági Versenyképesség Operatív Program (GVOP) tapasztalatait az ÚMFT Gazdaságfejlesztési Operatív Programba (GOP). Továbbá, hogy maguk a kis- és középvállalatok miként értékelik ezen kiírásokat és milyen javaslatokat tennének az ilyen típusú pályázatok "felhasználóbaráttá" tételéhez. A kutatás 2009 márciusától 2009 decemberéig tartott. A kéziratot 2010 áprilisában zártuk. / === / In a research group of the Corvinus University of Budapest we aimed to answer the questions of efficiency and effectiveness of the economic development grants of the National Development Plan (2004-2006) and the New Hungarian Development Plan (2007-13) with the focus of small and medium sized enterprises (SME's). We tried to highlight the results of learning by doing of the first National Development Plan and how this practice was built into the second development plan. An emphasis was placed on the opinion of the SME's, how they evaluate the grants and what are their proposals to make the grant system more "user friendly".

Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules.

The economic and financial crisis of 2007/2009 has posed unexpected challenges on both the global and the regional level. Besides the US, the EU has been the most severely hit by the current economic crisis. The financial and banking crisis on the one hand and the sovereign debt crisis on the other hand have clearly shown that without a bold, constructive and systematic change of the economic governance structure of the Union, not just the sustainability of the monetary zone but also the viability of the whole European integration process can be seriously undermined. The current crisis is, however, only a symptom, which made all those contradictions overt that were already heavily embedded in the system. Right from the very beginning, the deficit and the debt rules of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact have proved to be controversial cornerstones in the fiscal governance framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Yet, member states of the EU (both within and outside of the EMU) have shown an immense interest in adopting numerical constraints on the domestic level without hesitation. The main argument for the introduction of national fiscal rules was mostly to strengthen the accountability and credibility of national fiscal policy-making. The paper, however, claims that a relatively large portion of national rules were adopted only after the start of deceleration of the debt-to-GDP ratios. Accordingly, national rules were hardly the sole triggering factors of maintaining fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package of public budgeting. It can be safely argued, therefore, that countries decide to adopt fiscal rules because they want to explicitly signal their strong commitment to fiscal discipline. In other words, it is not fiscal rules per se what matter in delivering fiscal stability but a strong political commitment.

Versenyképesség haloptikával – Helyi gazdaságfejlesztési problémák fejlődő városokban = Competitiveness at short range - Local problems of economic development in medium-sized towns

The aim of our research in the first half of 2011 was to find out what were the administrative, regulative and other problems that were specific obstacles to local economic development and what best practices can be found in local economies. During our research we carried out interviews with leaders and local professionals in five medium size towns of Hungary. We stated that the most obstructive factors were the imperfection of vocational training, the excessively bureaucratic administrative proceedings (supplying of data, acquisition of authority permits, the attitude of the authorities, etc.) and the system of application and finding sources of funds. We think that the most innovative solutions are the good examples of the institutionalized co-operation between local governments and local businesses. We've come to the conclusion that there is a need for reducing administrative burdens for the sake of local economic development.

A temporary loss of pace or the "middle income trap" - a commentary on the tasks for Hungary's economic development

The latest Hungarian economic growth data, though favourable, do not let us forget that in the longer term growth is weak compared to the preceding period – as well as to the performance of the East-Central European region, which is more dynamic than the European average. In order to make sense of the past decade’s relative loss of pace and lay the foundations for future development policy, it is worth placing Hungary’s case in the context of the slowing tempo typical of middle-income countries. The economic development policies currently pursued by the government are aimed at increasing output in the processing industry, and by extension exports, while relevant international experience advises that it is the higher value-added activities of the global value chain, particularly business services, which should be developed further. In this way real wages and income levels could be increased, and the economy would be less exposed to the fluctuations of international cycles.

Social service provision, efficiency labor and economic development

This dissertation provides a theory of the effects and determinants of an economy's level of social services. The dissertation focuses on how the provision of social services will affect the effort decisions of workers, which will ultimately determine the economy's level of output. A worker decides on how much effort to contribute in relation to the level of social services he/she receives. The higher the level of social services received, the lower the cost—disutility—from providing effort will be. The government provides public infrastructure and social services (i.e. health services) in accordance with the economy's endowment of effort. In doing so, the government takes the aggregate effort endowment as given. Since, with higher individual work effort the higher the economy's total level of effort, failure by workers to coordinate effort levels will result in possible instances of low effort, low social services and low output; and, other instances of high effort, high social services and high output. Therefore, this dissertation predicts that in the context of social services, coordination failures in effort levels can lead to development traps. ^

Investigating positive identity development in a school-based youth development project

Adolescence is a pivotal period offering both opportunities and constraints on individual development. It is during this important time that one decides upon and commits to the values, goals, and beliefs which will form one's identity and guide one throughout the lifespan. Positive youth development programs, such as the Miami Youth Development Project's Changing Lives Program, target the formation of a positive sense of identity as a critical intervention point. Through developing a coherent and positive sense of self, adolescents take control of and responsibility for their lives and their decisions. Furthermore, a positive identity has been found to be a developmental asset and is linked to lower risk behaviors and positive outcomes including increased self-esteem, sense of purpose, and a positive view of the future. Positive youth development programs, which promote positive identity development, have been found to be more strongly tied to positive outcomes including skills, values, and competencies than have contextual opportunities. As such, it is critical to determine what leads to positive identity development. ^ The current study used structural equation modeling to evaluate three potential mediators of identity development. Findings indicated good model fit where change in identity commitment and change in identity exploration were mediated by informational identity style, personal expressiveness, and identity distress. There were also significant differences found between the control and intervention groups indicative of intervention effects. The findings of the current study suggest potential areas of intervention as well as the need for further research including longitudinal study and the use of qualitative methodology. ^

An analysis of the factors that influence regional economic development cooperation

This dissertation is a comparative case study of regional cooperation in the field of economic development. In the 21st century global economy, proponents of regionalism have put forth fresh arguments for collective action. A regional approach to economic development activity presents a classic social dilemma: How can local officials collectively improve the economic prospects of a region, and remain autonomous to act in the best interest of the local community? This research examines the role of social capital in overcoming this social dilemma. ^ Three (3) comparable Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) form the empirical basis of this research. The Houston MSA, the Atlanta MSA and the Miami MSA present distinct variations of regionalized economic development activity. This dissertation seeks to explain this disparity in the dependent variable. The hypothesis is that accrued social capital is crucial to obtaining economic development cooperative agreements.^ This qualitative research utilized secondary demographic and economic databases, survey instruments, interviews, field observations, and a review of legislative and administrative decisions to formulate a clear understanding of the factors influencing the current state of regional economic development cooperation within each region. The study concludes that the legislative and executive decisions of state government exert inordinate influence on the capacity of local officials to cooperate regionally for economic development purposes.^

The effect of domestic credit in the economic *development process

A commonly held view is that creation of excessive domestic credit may lead to inflation problems, however, many economists uphold the possibility that, generous domestic credit under appropriate conditions will result in increases of output. This hypothesis is examined for Japan and Colombia for the period 1950-1993.^ Domestic credit theories are reviewed since the times of Thornton and Smith, until the recent times of Lewis, McKinnon, Stiglitz and of Japanese economists like K. Emi, Tachi R. and others. It is found that in Japan of the Post-War period, efficient financial markets and the decisive role of the government in orienting investment decisions seem to have influenced positively the effectiveness of domestic credit as an output-stimulating variable. On the contrary, in Colombia the absence of the above features seems to explain why domestic credit is not very effective as an output-stimulating variable.^ Multiple regression analyses show that domestic credit is a strong explanatory variable for output increases in Japan and a weak one for Colombia's case in the studied period. For Japan the correlation depicts a positive relationship between the two variables with a decreasing rate very similar to a typical production function. Moreover, the positive decreasing rate is confirmed if net domestic credit is used in the correlations. For Colombia a positive relationship is also found when accumulated domestic credit is used, but, if net domestic credit is the source of correlations, the positive decreasing rate is not obtained.^ Granger causality tests determined causality from domestic credit to output for Japan and no-causality for Colombia at the 1% significance level; the differences are explained by: (1) The low development level of the financial system in Colombia. (2) The nonexistence of consistent domestic credit policy to foster economic development. (3) The lack of an authoritative orientation in the allocation of financial resources and the nonexistence of long range industrialization programs in Colombia that could channel productively credit resources. For the system of equations relating domestic credit and exports, the Granger causality tests determined no-causality between domestic credit and exports for both Japan and Colombia also at the 1% significance level. ^

Essays on the political economy of trade policy and economic *development

This dissertation studies the political economy of trade policy in a developing country, namely Turkey, under different economic and political regimes. The research analyzes the effects of these different regimes on the import structure, the trade policy and the industrialization process in Turkey and derives implications for aggregate welfare. ^ In the second chapter, the effects of trade liberalization policies on import demand are examined. Using disaggregated industry-level data, import demand elasticities for various sectors have been computed, analyzed under different economic regimes, and compared with those of developed countries. The results are statistically significant and reliable, and conform to the predictions of economic theory. Estimation of these elasticities is also a necessary ingredient for the third chapter of the dissertation. ^ The third chapter examines the predictions of the state-of-the-art “Protection For Sale” model of Grossman and Helpman (1994). Employing advanced econometric methods and a unique data set, strong support is found for the fundamental predictions of the model in the context of Turkey. Specifically, the government is found to attach a much higher weight to social welfare than to political contributions. This weight is higher under the democratic regime than under the dictatorship, a result potentially of interest to all researchers in the area of political economy. ^ The fourth chapter looks at the effects of industry concentration and import price shocks on protection, promotion and the choice of policy instruments in Turkey. In this context, it examines and finds support for the predictions of some well-known models in the literature. ^

International tourism and socio-economic development in the Caribbean : are they compatible?

Plagued with poverty, the countries of the Caribbean have grappled for years with numerous development models. As in many Third World countries, tourism has been used as an economic development strategy. Criticisms of the tourism industry have frequently been severe. So much that during the formation of the Caribbean Basin Initiative, the tourism industry was intentionally avoided and other industries favored. One of the most critical questions asked of tourism is whether or not the economic gains of the industry are worth the detrimental social, political and environmental effects on the host country. It is the objective of this thesis to examine the relationship between international tourism and socio-economic development in the Caribbean, and to determine whether or not the deficiencies of the industry prevent it from being a beneficial development tool.

Managing supply chain knowledge-based linkages for improving operational performance

Purpose: This paper aims to explore the role of internal and external knowledgebased linkages across the supply chain in achieving better operational performance. It investigates how knowledge is accumulated, shared, and applied to create organization-specific knowledge resources that increase and sustain the organization's competitive advantage. Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses a single case study with multiple, embedded units of analysis, and the social network analysis (SNA) to demonstrate the impact of internal and external knowledge-based linkages across multiple tiers in the supply chain on the organizational operational performance. The focal company of the case study is an Italian manufacturer supplying rubber components to European automotive enterprises. Findings: With the aid of the SNA, the internal knowledge-based linkages can be mapped and visualized. We found that the most central nodes having the most connections with other nodes in the linkages are the most crucial members in terms of knowledge exploration and exploitation within the organization. We also revealed that the effective management of external knowledge-based linkages, such as buyer company, competitors, university, suppliers, and subcontractors, can help improve the operational performance. Research limitations/implications: First, our hypothesis was tested on a single case. The analysis of multiple case studies using SNA would provide a deeper understanding of the relationship between the knowledge-based linkages at all levels of the supply chain and the integration of knowledge. Second, the static nature of knowledge flows was studied in this research. Future research could also consider ongoing monitoring of dynamic linkages and the dynamic characteristic of knowledge flows. Originality/value: To the best of our knowledge, the phrase 'knowledge-based linkages' has not been used in the literature and there is lack of investigation on the relationship between the management of internal and external knowledge-based linkages and the operational performance. To bridge the knowledge gap, this paper will show the importance of understanding the composition and characteristics of knowledge-based linkages and their knowledge nodes. In addition, this paper will show that effective management of knowledge-based linkages leads to the creation of new knowledge and improves organizations' operational performance.

Three Essays on Economic Development in the Natural Resources Sector

This thesis examines two ongoing development projects that received financial support from international development organizations, and an alternative mining tax proposed by the academia. Chapter 2 explores the impact of commoditization of coffee on its export price in Ethiopia. The first part of the chapter traces how the Ethiopian’s current coffee trade system and commoditization come to be. Using regression analysis, the second part tests and confirms the hypothesis that commoditization has led to a reduction in coffee export price. Chapter 3 conducts a cost-benefit analysis on a controversial, liquefied natural gas export project in Peru that sought to export one-third of the country’s proven natural gas reserves. While the country can receive royalty and corporate income tax in the short and medium term, these benefits are dwarfed by the future costs of paying for alternative energy after gas depletion. The conclusion is robust for a variety of future energy-price and energy-demand scenarios. Chapter 4 quantifies through simulation the economic distortions of two common mining taxes, the royalty and ad-valorem tax, vis-à-vis the resource rent tax. The latter is put forward as a better mining tax instrument on account of its non-distortionary nature. The rent tax, however, necessitates additional administrative burdens and induces tax-avoidance behavior, both leading to a net loss of tax revenue. By quantifying the distortions of royalty and the ad-valorem tax, one can establish the maximum loss that can be incurred by the rent tax. Simulation results indicate that the distortion of the ad-valorem tax is quite modest. If implemented, the rent tax is likely to result in a greater loss. While the subject matters may appear diverse, they are united by one theme. These initiatives were endorsed and supported by authorities and development agencies in the aim of furthering economic development and efficiency, but they are unlikely to fulfill the goal. Lessons for international development can be learnt from successful stories as well as from unsuccessful ones.