Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Facial feature detection for in-car environment

Acoustically, vehicles are extremely noisy environments and as a consequence audio-only in-car voice recognition systems perform very poorly. Seeing that the visual modality is immune to acoustic noise, using the visual lip information from the driver is seen as a viable strategy in circumventing this problem. However, implementing such an approach requires a system being able to accurately locate and track the driver’s face and facial features in real-time. In this paper we present such an approach using the Viola-Jones algorithm. Using this system, we present our results which show that using the Viola-Jones approach is a suitable method of locating and tracking the driver’s lips despite the visual variability of illumination and head pose.

The evaluation of a biphasic osteochondral implant coupled with an electrospun membrane in a large animal model

Conventional clinical therapies are unable to resolve osteochondral defects adequately, hence tissue engineering solutions are sought to address the challenge. A biphasic implant which was seeded with Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSC) and coupled with an electrospun membrane was evaluated as an alternative. This dual phase construct comprised of a Polycaprolactone (PCL) cartilage scaffold and a Polycaprolactone - Tri Calcium Phosphate (PCL - TCP) osseous matrix. Autologous MSC was seeded into the entire implant via fibrin and the construct was inserted into critically sized osteochondral defects located at the medial condyle and patellar groove of pigs. The defect was resurfaced with a PCL - collagen electrospun mesh that served as a substitute for periosteal flap in preventing cell leakage. Controls either without implanted MSC or resurfacing membrane were included. After 6 months, cartilaginous repair was observed with a low occurrence of fibrocartilage at the medial condyle. Osteochondral repair was promoted and host cartilage degeneration was arrested as shown by the superior Glycosaminoglycan (GAG) maintenance. This positive morphological outcome was supported by a higher relative Young's modulus which indicated functional cartilage restoration. Bone in growth and remodeling occurred in all groups with a higher degree of mineralization in the experimental group. Tissue repair was compromised in the absence of the implanted cells or the resurfacing membrane. Moreover healing was inferior at the patellar groove as compared to the medial condyle and this was attributed to the native biomechanical features.

Comparison of temporal processing and motion perception in emmetropes and myopes

While spatial determinants of emmetropization have been examined extensively in animal models and spatial processing of human myopes has also been studied, there have been few studies investigating temporal aspects of emmetropization and temporal processing in human myopia. The influence of temporal light modulation on eye growth and refractive compensation has been observed in animal models and there is evidence of temporal visual processing deficits in individuals with high myopia or other pathologies. Given this, the aims of this work were to examine the relationships between myopia (i.e. degree of myopia and progression status) and temporal visual performance and to consider any temporal processing deficits in terms of the parallel retinocortical pathways. Three psychophysical studies investigating temporal processing performance were conducted in young adult myopes and non-myopes: (1) backward visual masking, (2) dot motion perception and (3) phantom contour. For each experiment there were approximately 30 young emmetropes, 30 low myopes (myopia less than 5 D) and 30 high myopes (5 to 12 D). In the backward visual masking experiment, myopes were also classified according to their progression status (30 stable myopes and 30 progressing myopes). The first study was based on the observation that the visibility of a target is reduced by a second target, termed the mask, presented quickly after the first target. Myopes were more affected by the mask when the task was biased towards the magnocellular pathway; myopes had a 25% mean reduction in performance compared with emmetropes. However, there was no difference in the effect of the mask when the task was biased towards the parvocellular system. For all test conditions, there was no significant correlation between backward visual masking task performance and either the degree of myopia or myopia progression status. The dot motion perception study measured detection thresholds for the minimum displacement of moving dots, the maximum displacement of moving dots and degree of motion coherence required to correctly determine the direction of motion. The visual processing of these tasks is dominated by the magnocellular pathway. Compared with emmetropes, high myopes had reduced ability to detect the minimum displacement of moving dots for stimuli presented at the fovea (20% higher mean threshold) and possibly at the inferior nasal retina. The minimum displacement threshold was significantly and positively correlated to myopia magnitude and axial length, and significantly and negatively correlated with retinal thickness for the inferior nasal retina. The performance of emmetropes and myopes for all the other dot motion perception tasks were similar. In the phantom contour study, the highest temporal frequency of the flickering phantom pattern at which the contour was visible was determined. Myopes had significantly lower flicker detection limits (21.8 ± 7.1 Hz) than emmetropes (25.6 ± 8.8 Hz) for tasks biased towards the magnocellular pathway for both high (99%) and low (5%) contrast stimuli. There was no difference in flicker limits for a phantom contour task biased towards the parvocellular pathway. For all phantom contour tasks, there was no significant correlation between flicker detection thresholds and magnitude of myopia. Of the psychophysical temporal tasks studied here those primarily involving processing by the magnocellular pathway revealed differences in performance of the refractive error groups. While there are a number of interpretations for this data, this suggests that there may be a temporal processing deficit in some myopes that is selective for the magnocellular system. The minimum displacement dot motion perception task appears the most sensitive test, of those studied, for investigating changes in visual temporal processing in myopia. Data from the visual masking and phantom contour tasks suggest that the alterations to temporal processing occur at an early stage of myopia development. In addition, the link between increased minimum displacement threshold and decreasing retinal thickness suggests that there is a retinal component to the observed modifications in temporal processing.

The mechanical response of the ovine lumbar anulus fibrosus to uniaxial, biaxial and shear loads

Analytical and computational models of the intervertebral disc (IVD) are commonly employed to enhance understanding of the biomechanics of the human spine and spinal motion segments. The accuracy of these models in predicting physiological behaviour of the spine is intrinsically reliant on the accuracy of the material constitutive representations employed to represent the spinal tissues. There is a paucity of detailed mechanical data describing the material response of the reinforced­ground matrix in the anulus fibrosus of the IVD. In the present study, the ‘reinforced­ground matrix’ was defined as the matrix with the collagen fibres embedded but not actively bearing axial load, thus incorporating the contribution of the fibre-fibre and fibre-matrix interactions. To determine mechanical parameters for the anulus ground matrix, mechanical tests were carried out on specimens of ovine anulus, under unconfined uniaxial compression, simple shear and biaxial compression. Test specimens of ovine anulus fibrosus were obtained with an adjacent layer of vertebral bone/cartilage on the superior and inferior specimen surface. Specimen geometry was such that there were no continuous collagen fibres coupling the two endplates. Samples were subdivided according to disc region - anterior, lateral and posterior - to determine the regional inhomogeneity in the anulus mechanical response. Specimens were loaded at a strain rate sufficient to avoid fluid outflow from the tissue and typical stress-strain responses under the initial load application and under repeated loading were determined for each of the three loading types. The response of the anulus tissue to the initial and repeated load cycles was significantly different for all load types, except biaxial compression in the anterior anulus. Since the maximum applied strain exceeded the damage strain for the tissue, experimental results for repeated loading reflected the mechanical ability of the tissue to carry load, subsequent to the initiation of damage. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide experimental data describing the response of the ‘reinforced­ground matrix’ to biaxial compression. Additionally, it is novel in defining a study objective to determine the regionally inhomogeneous response of the ‘reinforced­ground matrix’ under an extensive range of loading conditions suitable for mechanical characterisation of the tissue. The results presented facilitate the development of more detailed and comprehensive constitutive descriptions for the large strain nonlinear elastic or hyperelastic response of the anulus ground matrix.

Meniscal repair in the elite athlete : results of 45 repairs with a minimum 5-year follow-up

Background The preservation of meniscal tissue is important to protect joint surfaces. Purpose We have an aggressive approach to meniscal repair, including repairing tears other than those classically suited to repair. Here we present the medium- to long-term outcome of meniscal repair (inside-out) in elite athletes. Study Design Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods Forty-two elite athletes underwent 45 meniscal repairs. All repairs were performed using an arthroscopically assisted inside-out technique. Eighty-three percent of these athletes had ACL reconstruction at the same time. Patients returned a completed questionnaire (including Lysholm and International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC] scores). Mean follow-up was 8.5 years. Failure was defined by patients developing symptoms of joint line pain and/or locking or swelling requiring repeat arthroscopy and partial meniscectomy. Results The average Lysholm and subjective IKDC scores were 89.6 and 85.4, respectively. Eighty-one percent of patients returned to their main sport and most to a similar level at a mean time of 10.4 months after repair, reflecting the high level of ACL reconstruction in this group. We identified 11 definite failures, 10 medial and 1 lateral meniscus, that required excision; this represents a 24% failure rate. We identified 1 further patient who had possible failed repairs, giving a worst-case failure rate of 26.7% at a mean of 42 months after surgery. However, 7 of these failures were associated with a further injury. Therefore, the atraumatic failure rate was 11%. Age and size and location of the tears were not associated with a higher failure rate. Medial meniscal repairs were significantly more likely to fail than lateral meniscal repairs, with a failure rate of 36.4% and 5.6%, respectively (P < .05). Conclusion Meniscal repair and healing are possible, and most elite athletes can return to their preinjury level of activity.

Evaluation of vinylidene fluoride polymers for use in space environments : comparison of radiation sensitivities

Poly(vinylidene fluoride) and copolymers of vinylidene fluoride with hexafluoropropylene, trifluoroethylene and chlorotrifluoroethylene have been exposed to gamma irradiation in vacuum, up to doses of 1MGy under identical conditions, to obtain a ranking of radiation sensitivities. Changes in the tensile properties, crystalline melting points,heats of fusion, gel contents and solvent uptake factors were used as the defining parameters. The initial degree of crystallinity and film processing had the greatest influence on relative radiation damage, although the cross-linked network features were almost identical in their solvent swelling characteristics, regardless of the comonomer composition or content.

Audio visual automatic speech recognition in vehicles

Acoustically, car cabins are extremely noisy and as a consequence, existing audio-only speech recognition systems, for voice-based control of vehicle functions such as the GPS based navigator, perform poorly. Audio-only speech recognition systems fail to make use of the visual modality of speech (eg: lip movements). As the visual modality is immune to acoustic noise, utilising this visual information in conjunction with an audio only speech recognition system has the potential to improve the accuracy of the system. The field of recognising speech using both auditory and visual inputs is known as Audio Visual Speech Recognition (AVSR). Continuous research in AVASR field has been ongoing for the past twenty-five years with notable progress being made. However, the practical deployment of AVASR systems for use in a variety of real-world applications has not yet emerged. The main reason is due to most research to date neglecting to address variabilities in the visual domain such as illumination and viewpoint in the design of the visual front-end of the AVSR system. In this paper we present an AVASR system in a real-world car environment using the AVICAR database [1], which is publicly available in-car database and we show that the use of visual speech conjunction with the audio modality is a better approach to improve the robustness and effectiveness of voice-only recognition systems in car cabin environments.

Implications of faecal indicator bacteria for the microbiological assessment of roof harvested rainwater quality in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The study aimed to evaluate the suitability of Escherichia coli, enterococci and C. perfringens to assess the microbiological quality of roof harvested rainwater, and to assess whether the concentrations of these faecal indicators can be used to predict the presence or absence of specific zoonotic bacterial or protozoan pathogens. From a total of 100 samples tested, respectively 58%, 83% and 46% of samples were found to be positive for E. coli, enterococci and C. perfringens spores, as determined by traditional culture based methods. Additionally, in the samples tested, 7%, 19%, 1%, 8%, 17%, and 15% were PCR positive for A. hydrophila lip, C. coli ceuE, C. jejuni mapA, L. pneumophila mip, Salmonella invA, and G. lamblia β-giardin genes. However, none of the samples was positive for E. coli O157 LPS, VT1, VT2 and C. parvum COWP genes. The presence or absence of these potential pathogens did not correlate with any of the faecal indicator bacterial concentrations as determined by a binary logistic regression model. The roof-harvested rainwater samples tested in this study appear to be of poor microbiological quality and no significant correlation was found between the concentration of faecal indicators and pathogenic microorganisms. The use of faecal indicator bacteria raises questions regarding their reliability in assessing the microbiological quality of water and particularly their poor correlation with pathogenic microorganisms. The presence of one or more zoonotic pathogens suggests that the microbiological analysis of water should be performed, and appropriate treatment measures should be undertaken especially in tanks where the water is used for drinking.

The effect of dialect mismatch on likelihood-maximising speech enhancement for noise-robust speech recognition

Traditional speech enhancement methods optimise signal-level criteria such as signal-to-noise ratio, but these approaches are sub-optimal for noise-robust speech recognition. Likelihood-maximising (LIMA) frameworks are an alternative that optimise parameters of enhancement algorithms based on state sequences generated for utterances with known transcriptions. Previous reports of LIMA frameworks have shown significant promise for improving speech recognition accuracies under additive background noise for a range of speech enhancement techniques. In this paper we discuss the drawbacks of the LIMA approach when multiple layers of acoustic mismatch are present – namely background noise and speaker accent. Experimentation using LIMA-based Mel-filterbank noise subtraction on American and Australian English in-car speech databases supports this discussion, demonstrating that inferior speech recognition performance occurs when a second layer of mismatch is seen during evaluation.

Peripheral ocular aberrations in mild and moderate keratoconus

Purpose: To investigate the influence of keratoconus on peripheral ocular aberrations. Methods: Aberrations of 7 mild and 5 moderate keratoconics were determined over a 42°horizontal x 32° vertical visual field with a modified COAS-HD aberrometer. Control data were obtained from an emmetropic group. Results: Most aberrations in keratoconics showed field dependence predominately along the vertical meridian. Mean spherical equivalent M, oblique astigmatism J45 and regular astigmatism J180 refraction components and total root mean square aberrations (excluding defocus) had high magnitudes in the inferior visual field. The rates of change of aberrations were higher in moderate than in mild keratoconics. Coma was the dominant peripheral higher-order aberration in both emmetropes and keratoconics; for the latter it had high magnitudes in the centre and periphery of the visual field. Conclusion: Greater rates of change of aberrations across the visual field occurred for the keratoconic groups than for the emmetropic control group. Moderate keratoconics had more rapid changes in, and higher magnitudes of aberrations across the visual field than mild keratoconics. The dominant higher-order aberration for the keratoconics across the visual field was vertical coma.

Regional changes in corneal thickness and shape with soft contact lenses

Purpose: To investigate the influence of soft contact lenses on regional variations in corneal thickness and shape while taking account of natural diurnal variations in these corneal parameters. Methods: Twelve young, healthy subjects wore 4 different types of soft contact lenses on 4 different days. The lenses were of two different materials (silicone hydrogel, hydrogel), designs (spherical, toric) and powers (–3.00, –7.00 D). Corneal thickness and topography measurements were taken before and after 8 hours of lens wear and on two days without lens wear, using the Pentacam HR system. Results: The hydrogel toric contact lens caused the greatest level of corneal thickening in the central (20.3 ± 10.0 microns) as well as peripheral cornea (24.1 ± 9.1 microns) (p < 0.001) with an obvious regional swelling of the cornea beneath the stabilizing zones. The anterior corneal surface generally showed slight flattening. All contact lenses resulted in central posterior corneal steepening and this was weakly correlated with central corneal swelling (p = 0.03) and peripheral corneal swelling (p = 0.01). Conclusions: There was an obvious regional corneal swelling apparent after wear of the hydrogel soft toric lenses, due to the location of the thicker stabilization zones of the toric lenses. However with the exception of the hydrogel toric lens, the magnitude of corneal swelling induced by the contact lenses over the 8 hours of wear was less than the natural diurnal thinning of the cornea over this same period.

Pressure filtration of Australian bagasse pulp

A one-dimensional pressure filtration model that can be used to predict the behaviour of bagasse pulp has been developed and verified in this study.The dynamic filtration model uses steady state compressibility parameters determined experimentally by uniaxial loading. The compressibility parameters M and N for depithed bagasse pulp were determined to be in the ranges 3000–8000kPa and 2.5–3.0 units, respectively. The model also incorporates experimentally determined steady state permeability data from separate experiments to predict the pulp concentration and fibre pressure throughout a pulp mat during dynamic filtration. Under steady state conditions, a variable Kozeny factor required different values for the permeability parameters when compared to a constant Kozeny factor. The specific surface area was 25–30% lower and the swelling factor was 20–25% higher when a variable Kozeny factor was used. Excellent agreement between experimental data and the dynamic filtration model was achieved when a variable Kozeny factor was used.