Improving EU biofuels policy? Greenhouse gas emissions, policy efficiency, and WTO compatibility

Both the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and Article 7a of its Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) seek to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport fuels. The RED mandates a 10% share of renewable energy in transport fuels by 2020, whilst the FQD requires a 6% reduction in GHG emissions (from a 2010 base) by the same date. In practice, it will mainly be biofuels that economic operators will use to meet these requirements, but the different approaches can lead to either the RED, or the FQD, acting as the binding constraint. A common set of environmental sustainability criteria apply to biofuels under both the RED and the FQD. In particular, biofuels have to demonstrate a 35% (later increasing to 50/60%) saving in life-cycle GHG emissions. This could be problematic in the World Trade Organization (WTO), as a non-compliant biofuel with a 34% emissions saving would probably be judged to be ‘like’ a compliant biofuel. A more economically rational way to reduce GHG emissions, and one that might attract greater public support, would be for the RED to reward emission reductions along the lines of the FQD. Moreover, this modification would probably make the provisions more acceptable in the WTO, as there would be a clearer link between policy measures and the objective of reductions in GHG emissions; and the combination of the revised RED and the FQD would lessen the commercial incentive to import biofuels with modest GHG emission savings, and thus reduce the risk of trade tension.

Improving a convection-permitting model simulation of a cold air outbreak

A convection-permitting local-area model was used to simulate a cold air outbreak crossing from the Norwegian Sea into the Atlantic Ocean near Scotland. A control model run based on an operational configuration of the Met Office UKV high-resolution (1.5 km grid spacing) NWP model was compared to satellite, aircraft and radar data. While the control model captured the large-scale features of the synoptic situation, it was not able to reproduce the shallow (<1.5 km) stratiform layer to the north of the open cellular convection. Liquid water paths were found to be too low in both the stratiform and convective cloud regions. Sensitivity analyses including a modified boundary-layer diagnosis to generate a more well-mixed boundary layer and inhibition of ice formation to lower temperatures improved cloud morphology and comparisons with observational data. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Interactive sensory objects for improving access to heritage

In this project we explore how to enhance the experience and understanding of cultural heritage in museums and heritage sites by creating interactive multisensory objects collaboratively with artists, technologists and people with learning disabilities. We focus here on workshops conducted during the first year of a three year project in which people with learning disabilities each constructed a 'sensory box' to represent their experiences of Speke Hall, a heritage site in the UK. The box is developed further in later workshops which explore aspects of physicality and how to appeal to the entire range of senses, making use of Arduino technology and basic sensors to enable an interactive user experience.

Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.

Improving real-time estimates of output and inflation gaps with multiple-vintage models

Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation gaps differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post-revision values of future observations and of already-released observations capable of improving estimates of output and inflation gaps in real time. Our findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages.

Magnetic resonance imaging of a randomized controlled trial investigating predictors of recovery following psychological treatment in adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar depression: study protocol for Magnetic Resonance - Improving Mood with Psychoanalytic and Cognitive Therapies (MR-IMPACT)

Background Major depressive disorders (MDD) are a debilitating and pervasive group of mental illnesses afflicting many millions of people resulting in the loss of 110 million working days and more than 2,500 suicides per annum. Adolescent MDD patients attending NHS clinics show high rates of recurrence into adult life. A meta-analysis of recent research shows that psychological treatments are not as efficacious as previously thought. Modest treatment outcomes of approximately 65% of cases responding suggest that aetiological and clinical heterogeneity may hamper the better use of existing therapies and discovery of more effective treatments. Information with respect to optimal treatment choice for individuals is lacking, with no validated biomarkers to aid therapeutic decision-making. Methods/Design Magnetic resonance-Improving Mood with Psychoanalytic and Cognitive Therapies, the MR-IMPACT study, plans to identify brain regions implicated in the pathophysiology of depressions and examine whether there are specific behavioural or neural markers predicting remission and/or subsequent relapse in a subsample of depressed adolescents recruited to the IMPACT randomised controlled trial (Registration # ISRCTN83033550). Discussion MR-IMPACT is an investigative biomarker component of the IMPACT pragmatic effectiveness trial. The aim of this investigation is to identify neural markers and regional indicators of the pathophysiology of and treatment response for MDD in adolescents. We anticipate that these data may enable more targeted treatment delivery by identifying those patients who may be optimal candidates for therapeutic response.

Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment

Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.

Improving the spatial distribution of modeled Arctic sea ice thickness

The spatial distribution of ice thickness/draft in the Arctic Ocean is examined using a sea ice model. A comparison of model predictions with submarine observations of sea ice draft made during cruises between 1987 and 1997 reveals that the model has the same deficiencies found in previous studies, namely ice that is too thick in the Beaufort Sea and too thin near the North Pole. We find that increasing the large scale shear strength of the sea ice leads to substantial improvements in the model's spatial distribution of sea ice thickness, and simultaneously improves the agreement between modeled and ERS-derived 1993–2001 mean winter ice thickness.

Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts.

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

Historic environments and tourism: Improving access for disabled people

Historic environments and buildings are valued and valuable features of the UK tourism sector, as visitor attractions and as holiday accommodation. Keeping historic environments in economic use is crucial to their conservation, but they date from eras when access for disabled people was not a consideration. Part III of the Disability Discrimination Act 1995 (the DDA) took effect on 1 October 2004 and requires service providers to make reasonable building adjustments to remove physical barriers to disabled access. This independent scoping study by the College of Estate Management, sponsored by Marsh Limited and The Mercers' Company, explores progress in making historic environments accessible to disabled people through an examination of UK policy, literature and case studies in South Oxfordshire and London. The report findings are relevant for property and built environment professionals, business managers and all those involved with historic environments that are used for tourism.

Improving transmission reliability of low-power medium access control protocols using average diversity combining

Embedded computer systems equipped with wireless communication transceivers are nowadays used in a vast number of application scenarios. Energy consumption is important in many of these scenarios, as systems are battery operated and long maintenance-free operation is required. To achieve this goal, embedded systems employ low-power communication transceivers and protocols. However, currently used protocols cannot operate efficiently when communication channels are highly erroneous. In this study, we show how average diversity combining (ADC) can be used in state-of-the-art low-power communication protocols. This novel approach improves transmission reliability and in consequence energy consumption and transmission latency in the presence of erroneous channels. Using a testbed, we show that highly erroneous channels are indeed a common occurrence in situations, where low-power systems are used and we demonstrate that ADC improves low-power communication dramatically.

Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

This winter (2013/14) coastal storms and an unprecedented amount of rainfall led to significant and widespread flooding across the southern UK. Despite much criticism and blame surrounding the flood events, the Flood Forecasting Centre, a recent development in national-level flood forecasting capabilities for the government and emergency response communities, has received considerable praise. Here we consider how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this winter's flooding. Although such improvements are admirable, there are many technical and communication challenges that remain for probabilistic flood forecasts to achieve their full potential.