Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Rainfall erosivity and rainfall return period in the experimental watershed of Aracruz, in the coastal plain of Espirito Santo, Brazil

Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.

An Architectural and Historical Survey of Public Libraries in Iowa 1870-1940, 1980

The public library movement f the early twentieth century was a national phenomenon, in which Iowa, along with its neighboring states, played a prominent role. In 1900, the Iowa Library Commission noted 48 free public libraries in the state. Today there are approximately 500, in towns ranging in size from Beaman, with a population of 222, the Des Moines, the state capitol. Iowans took enthusiastic advantage of Andre Carnegie's library philanthropy. In 1919, the Carnegie Corporation stopped funding libraries, 101 building has been erected in Iowa with Carnegie funds. Iowa place fourth among the states in terms of the number of communities obtaining Carnegie buildings, fifth in dollar appropriation per one hundred population and eighth in the total amount of money given by Carnegie to a state. These figures provide some measure by which interest in popular education among Iowans of the period can be judged. Today these early libraries, often the most distinctive public libraries in small or medium-sized towns, are physical foci in the townscapes of their communities and centers for a variety of educational and social activities. This survey was initiated by the Division of Historic Preservation in 1977. It grew out of the need to provide a framework within which libraries could be evaluated for National Register action. Several libraries (Des Moines, Grinnell, Eagle Grove, Carroll) has been recent candidates for the Register. There was every indication that enthusiasm for old library buildings was increasing and that more nominations could be expected in the future. The attrition rate among early library buildings was (and is) growing. Most libraries were built on limited budgets (Carnegie did not squander his money) and, despite the fact that future expansion was usually a conscious consideration in their design, they are rapidly becoming obsolete, due to expanding collections and changing styles of librarianship. If the protection of the threatened with demolition or alteration, action needed to be taken.

Celebrating 20 Years, Main Street Iowa, 20 Year Report, 1986-2006.

The Main Street Four Point Approach® is a proven development process and has provided both focus and opportunity to Iowa’s participating cities. Collectively, these progressive communities have documented thousands of volunteer hours and millions of dollars in private investment into the revitalization of their historic city centers.

Some information concerning the State Historical Society of Iowa,1910.

In recent years historical research seems to be the State Historical Society's main function, although it was formed with the principal functions of collection, preservation and exhibition. Now, instead of simply attempting to make the largest possible collection of historical materials in one place, this society will now endeavor to compile, publish and distribute accurate and scientific historical literature. The book also lists publications, information on the library and on membership.

Main Street Messenger, February 2012, Vol. 1

News from Main Street Iowa

Main Street Messenger, 2012 Vol. 2

News from Main Street Iowa and the Iowa Downtown Resource Center

Iowa Registered Highway Route 1914-1925

There were few guides for travelers crossing Iowa in 1838 when it was organzied as a teritory, and traveler often becaome lost or wandered for out of their way. The 1838 Territorial Government authorized the first state roads and the federal government appropriated money to expedite the movement of soldiers. The Territorial governement ued the federal money for layin gout a road from Dubuque to Keokuk vis Iowa City and this was the beginning of what was to becaome a 112,000 mile system of roads and streets in Iowa. The original roads followed the high ground of the state and were known as ride roads; but as the state was settled, roads befan to follow section line to accomodate landowners.

Guidance Document for Executive Order Number 17, March 25, 2010

Executive Order 17, signed by Governor Chester J. Culver on September 25, 2009, emphasizes revitalization of historic properties and cultural and entertainment districts and also supports safe and healthy work places, sustainable design and cost effective use of state resources. Specifically, the Executive Order requires that State entities managing or leasing real estate on behalf of the State shall give priority to the needs of public entities and the populations they serve consistent with the cost effective use of state revenues. It also indicates that existing resources and facilities shall be used where adequate, cost competitive and appropriate for efficient and effective current state operations.

NLG Museum Connecting to Collections, Statewide Planning Grant, Developing a Statewide Disaster Preparedness and Response Plan for Iowa, Final report.

The Iowa Conservation and Preservation Consortium, Iowa Museum Association, the State Historical Society of Iowa and the State Library requested the IMLS CTC grant funds so we could develop a statewide plan to help the stewards of cultural property plan for protection and disaster recovery of collections. We are very pleased with the results of our grant activities. Thanks to the IMLS CTC grant over 200 Iowa collection care takers have received basic training in disaster preparedness and response, 24 care takers have signed up to become cultural collection first responders, a dozen disaster planning/response trainers are available upon request, and over 40 institutions have ReAct Paks. We have created a variety of training tools ranging from basic awareness to in-depth training, established a website of disaster resources, and geo-referenced hundreds of cultural collection sites around Iowa. In addition, the IMLS grant was just the motivator we needed to participate in other national/international efforts which in turn strengthened our IMLS grant project.

Main Street Messenger, 2012 Vol. 3

News from the Iowa Downtown Resource Center, Main Street Iowa

Missouri River Flood Coordination Task Force Report, September 25, 2011

The Missouri River floods of 2011 will go down in history as the longest duration flooding event this state has seen to date. The combination of above normal snowfall in the upper Missouri River basin followed by the equivalent of nearly one year’s worth of rainfall in May created an above normal runoff situation which filled the Missouri River and the six main reservoirs within the basin. Compounding this problem was colder than normal temperatures which kept much of the snowpack in the upper basin on the ground longer into the spring, setting the stage for this historic event. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) began increasing the outflow at Gavin’s Point, near Yankton, South Dakota in May. On June 14, 2011, the outflow reached a record rate of over 160,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), over twice the previous record outflow set in 1997. This increased output from Gavin’s Point caused the Missouri River to flow out of its banks covering over 283,000 acres of land in Iowa, forcing hundreds of evacuations, damaging 255,000 acres of cropland and significantly impacting the levee system on the Missouri River basin. Over the course of the summer, approximately 64 miles of primary roads closed due to Missouri River flooding, including 54 miles of Interstate Highway. Many county secondary roads were closed by high water or overburdened due to the numerous detours and road closures in this area. As the Missouri River levels began to increase, municipalities and counties aided by State and Federal agencies began preparing for a sustained flood event. Citizens, businesses, state agencies, local governments and non‐profits made substantial preparations, in some cases expending millions of dollars on emergency protective measures to protect their facilities from the impending flood. Levee monitors detected weak spots in the levee system in all affected counties, with several levees being identified as at risk levees that could potentially fail. Of particular concern was the 28 miles of levees protecting Council Bluffs. Based on this concern, Council Bluffs prepared an evacuation plan for the approximately 30,000 residents that resided in the protected area. On May 25, 2011, Governor Branstad directed the execution of the Iowa Emergency Response Plan in accordance with Section 401 of the Stafford Act. On May 31, 2011, HSEMD Administrator, Brigadier General J. Derek Hill, formally requested the USACE to provide technical assistance and advanced measures for the communities along the Missouri River basin. On June 2, 2011 Governor Branstad issued a State of Iowa Proclamation of Disaster Emergency for Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie, and Woodbury counties. The length of this flood event created a unique set of challenges for Federal, State and local entities. In many cases, these organizations were conducting response and recovery operations simultaneously. Due to the length of this entire event, the State Emergency Operations Center and the local Emergency Operations Centers remained open for an extended period of time, putting additional strain on many organizations and resources. In response to this disaster, Governor Branstad created the Missouri River Recovery Coordination Task Force to oversee the State’s recovery efforts. The Governor announced the creation of this Task Force on October 17, 2011 and appointed Brigadier General J. Derek Hill, HSEMD Administrator as the chairman. This Task Force would be a temporary group of State agency representatives and interested stakeholders brought together to support the recovery efforts of the Iowa communities impacted by the Missouri River Flood. Collectively, this group would analyze and share damage assessment data, coordinate assistance across various stakeholders, monitor progress, capture best practices and identify lessons learned.

Iowa Wetland Management District: Environmental Assessment and Draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan

This Environmental Assessment documents the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process for developing a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP) for the Iowa Wetland Management District (WMD, district). In general, scoping reveals issues that drive alternative ways of managing the district. Implementation of each of those alternative management styles (including the No Action Alternative) may have different effects on the physical, biological, and socio-economic environment. Analysis of these effects reveals the “preferred” alternative, which constitutes the CCP. The CCP includes goals, objectives, and strategies for the district to guide overall management for the next 15 years. The Iowa WMD consists of scattered tracts of habitat (both wetland and upland grassland) known as Waterfowl Production Areas (WPAs). As of 2011, there are 75 WPAs in 18 counties in north-central Iowa totaling 24,712 acres in fee title primarily managed by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Even though district acquisition has only occurred in 18 counties to date, a larger 35-county boundary is approved. This boundary follows the historic range of the poorly drained Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in Iowa, an area known for its waterfowl production. The district also includes 575 WPA acres and approximately 434 Farm Service Agency acres in conservation easements on private land. This plan was prepared with the intent that the strong partnership with the Iowa DNR will continue over the next 15 years.

La depuración del personal del Museo Arqueológico de Barcelona y del Servicio de Investigaciones Arqueológicas después de la Guerra Civil (1939-1941)

Al finalizar la Guerra Civil española (1936-1939), el personal del Museu d' Arqueologia y de la Secció d'Excavacions i Arqueologia del Servei del Patrimoni Artístic, Historic i Científic (SPAHC) de la suprimida Generalitat de Catalunya fue sometido a depuración por parte del Juzgado Militar Especial de Funcionarios de la Diputación Provincial de Barcelona. La llegada como nuevo director de Martín Almagro Basch, en substitución del exiliado Pere Bosch Gimpera, y el resultado de la reorganización subsiguiente marcaron el desarrollo de la investigación arqueológica en Cataluña hasta finales de la década de 1960.

Iowa Byways: The Official Guide to Iowa Byways, 2013

Browse through this guide and you’ll find the distinct flavor of what is available along each byway. Discover recreational, historic, cultural and scenic attractions using the maps and lists provided in the guide. You’ll find numbered attractions for each byway in or near the town listed. For a comprehensive list of byway features, visit www.iowabyways.org. Friendly local contacts are provided to help you along the way. Iowa Transportation Maps clearly tracking all the Iowa byways with red dotted lines are available at Iowa’s official welcome centers. Traveling Iowa’s byways you will experience small town America, while enjoying diverse landscapes and unique landforms that have been shaped over thousands of years. Iowa’s cultural heritage also plays a major role across all 11 byways, boasting hundreds of historic sites, national landmarks and interpretive centers, each telling Iowa’s stories from the first Native Americans through European immigrants to modern times. Glaciers once covered much of Iowa, shaping the broad flat plains of the prairie. These massive sheets of ice missed the northeast corner of the state, leaving the land along the Driftless Area Byway rugged and hilly with rock outcroppings, springs and cold water trout streams. Rivers coursed their way through the land, carving deep furrows in some places and leaving gently rolling hills in others. In western Iowa, wind has shaped fine sand into the impressive Loess Hills, a rare land form found in only one other place on earth. Iowa’s two national scenic byways and nine state byways offer unique varieties of scenic features, and more for you to see and do. View three states from atop a Mississippi River bluff, stop at a modern art museum and then tour a working farm. Explore a historic mill, visit a national aquarium, take a boat ride in a cave, purchase locally crafted pottery and wares from local artisans or trace the footsteps of Lewis and Clark. Experience the actual wagon ruts of the Mormon Trail, ride your bike 13 stories high, canoe a water trail, star gaze under Iowa’s darkest sky, and marvel at mounds built by prehistoric cultures. Agriculture wraps Iowa’s byways with an abundance of farmland vistas and fills Iowa lands with ever-changing crops and activities for you to “harvest.” You’ll see croplands on the vast flat plains and farmsteads sprinkled across rolling hills reminiscent of a Grant Wood painting. Along the way, you might wander in a corn maze, rest at a bed and breakfast, study farming in museums, discover the Iowa barn quilt collection or visit a working Amish farm. When you are ready to step outside your vehicle, you’ll find much more to do and see. Prairie, forests, rivers and public lands are abundant along Iowa’s byways; providing opportunities for you to stop and play in the outdoors with hiking, biking, kayaking and trout fishing. Classic hometowns with pride for their unique lore and offerings are found all along the byways. They invite you to taste local food, enjoy their architecture, and immerse yourself in the rich history and culture that defines them. Why not plan your next journey off the beaten path? No matter how you choose to make the most of every moment, we know that time spent along Iowa’s byways is sure to grow your love for Iowa’s diverse, beautiful vistas and authentic communities. Happy driving!