Modelling and Analysis of Bivariate Lifetime Data using Reversed Hazard Rates

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Studies on new processing aids and other compounding ingredients in special purpose rubbers

In the first part of the study we probed the effectiveness of rice bran oil as a multipurpose compounding ingredient for nitrile (NBR) and chloroprene (CR) rubbers. This oil has already been successfully employed in the compounding of NR and SBR in this laboratory.In this context we thought it worthwhile to try this oil in the polar rubbers viz, NBR and CR also. The principle of like dissolves like as applicable to solvents is equally applicable while selecting a plasticiser, elastomer combination. Because of the compatibility considerations polar plasticisers are preferred for polar rubbers like NBR and CR. Although plasticisation is a physical phenomenon and no chemical reaction is involved, the chemical structure of plasticisers determines how much physical attraction there is between the rubber and the plasticiser. In this context it is interesting to note that the various fatty acids present in rice bran oil have a long paraffinic chain, characteristic of waxes, with an acid group at the end of the molecule. The paraffinic end of the molecule contributes lubricating effects and limits compatibility whereas the acid end group contributes some polarity and is also chemically reactive. Because of absorption of acid group on the surface of pigments, these acids will have active pigment wetting characteristics also. These factors justifies the role of rice bran oil as a co-activator and lubricating agent for NBR and CR. In fact in our study we successfully replaced stearic acid as co-activator and aromatic oillDOP as processing aid for CR and NBR with rice bran oil.This part of the study has got special significance in the fact that rubber industry now heavily depends on petroleum industry for process oils. The conventional process oils like aromatic, naphthenic and paraffinic oils are increasingly becoming costlier, as its resources in nature are fast depleting. Moreover aromatic process oils are reported to be carcinogenic because of the presence of higher levels of polycyclic aromatic compounds in these oils.As a result of these factors, a great amount research is going on world over for newer processing aids which are cost effective, nontoxic and performanance wise at par with the conventional ones used in the rubber industry. Trials with vegetable oils in this direction is worth trying.Antioxidants are usually added to the rubber compound to minimise ageing effects from heat, light, oxygen etc. As rice bran oil contains significant amount of tocopherols and oryzanol which are natural antioxidants, we replaced a phenolic antioxidant like styrenated phenol (SP) from the compound recipe of both the rubbers with RBO and ascertained whether this oil could function in the role of antioxidant as well.Preparation and use of epoxidised rice bran oil as plasticiser has already been reported.The crude rice bran oil having an iodine value of 92 was epoxidised in this laboratory using peracetic acid in presence of sulphuric acid as catalyst. The epoxy content of the epoxidised oil was determined volumetrically by treating a known weight of the oil with excess HCI and back titrating the residual HCI with standard alkali solution. The epoxidised oil having an epoxy content of 3.4% was tried in the compounding of NBR and CR as processing aids. And results of these investigations are also included in this chapter. In the second part of the study we tried how RBO/ERBO could perform when used as a processing aid in place of aromatic oil in the compounding of black filled NRCR blends. Elastomers cannot have all the properties required for a particular applications, so it is common practice in rubber industry to blend two elastomers to have desired property for the resulting blend.In this RBO/ERBO was tried as a processing aid for plasticisation, dispersion of fillers, and vulcanisation of black filled NR-CR blends.Aromatic oil was used as a control. The results of our study indicate that these oils could function as a processing aid and when added together with carbon black function as a cure accelerator also.PVC is compatible with nitrile rubber in all proportions, provided NBR has an acrylonitrile content of 25 to 40%. Lower or higher ACN content in NBR makes it incompatible with PVC.PVC is usually blended with NBR at high temperatures. In order to reduce torque during mixing, additional amounts of plasticisers like DOP are added. The plasticiser should be compatible both with PVC and NBR so as to get a homogeneous blend. Epoxidised soyaben oil is reported to have been used in the compounding of PVC as it can perfonn both as an efficient plasticiser and heat stabilizer.At present DOP constitute the largest consumed plasticiser in the PVC compounding. The migration of this plasticiser from food packaging materials made of PVC poses great health hazards as this is harmful to human body. In such a scenario we also thought it worthwhile to see whether DOP could be replaced by rice bran oil in the compounding of NBR-PVC blends Different blends of NBR-PVC were prepared with RBO and were vulcanized using sulphur and conventional accelerators. The various physical and mechanical properties of the vulcanisates were evaluated and compared with those prepared with DOP as the control plasticiser. Epoxidised rice bran oil was also tried as plasticiser for the preparation of NBR-PVC blends. A comparison of the processability and cure characteristics of the different blends prepared with DOP and ERBO showed that ERBO based blends have better processability and lower cure time values. However the elastographic maximum torque values are higher for the DOP based blends. Almost all of the physical properties evaluated are found to be slightly better for the DOP based blends over the ERBO based ones. However a notable feature of the ERBO based blends is the better percentage retention of elongation at break values after ageing over the DOP based blends. The results of these studies using rice bran oil and its epoxidised variety indicated that they could be used as efficient plasticisers in place of DOP and justifies their role as novel, nontoxic, and cheap plasticisers for NBR-PVC blends.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Regression models for bivariate survival data

Multivariate lifetime data arise in various forms including recurrent event data when individuals are followed to observe the sequence of occurrences of a certain type of event; correlated lifetime when an individual is followed for the occurrence of two or more types of events, or when distinct individuals have dependent event times. In most studies there are covariates such as treatments, group indicators, individual characteristics, or environmental conditions, whose relationship to lifetime is of interest. This leads to a consideration of regression models.The well known Cox proportional hazards model and its variations, using the marginal hazard functions employed for the analysis of multivariate survival data in literature are not sufficient to explain the complete dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector. Motivated by this, in Chapter 2, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model using vector hazard function of Johnson and Kotz (1975), in which the covariates under study have different effect on two components of the vector hazard function. The proposed model is useful in real life situations to study the dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector . The well known partial likelihood approach is used for the estimation of parameter vectors. We then introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for gap times of recurrent events in Chapter 3. The model incorporates both marginal and joint dependence of the distribution of gap times on the covariate vector . In many fields of application, mean residual life function is considered superior concept than the hazard function. Motivated by this, in Chapter 4, we considered a new semi-parametric model, bivariate proportional mean residual life time model, to assess the relationship between mean residual life and covariates for gap time of recurrent events. The counting process approach is used for the inference procedures of the gap time of recurrent events. In many survival studies, the distribution of lifetime may depend on the distribution of censoring time. In Chapter 5, we introduced a proportional hazards model for duration times and developed inference procedures under dependent (informative) censoring. In Chapter 6, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for competing risks data under right censoring. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of the parameters of different models developed in previous chapters, were studied. The proposed models were applied to various real life situations.

Constraining the active tectonic deformation of Andaman-Nicobar Arc in the background of December 26,2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

The Andaman-Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal lies in a zone where the Indian plate subducts beneath the Burmese microplate, and therefore forms a belt of frequent earthquakes. Few efforts, not withstanding the available historical and instrumental data were not effectively used before the Mw 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake to draw any inference on the spatial and temporal distribution of large subduction zone earthquakes in this region. An attempt to constrain the active crustal deformation of the Andaman-Nicobar arc in the background of the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman megathrust earthquake is made here, thereby presenting a unique data set representing the pre-seismic convergence and co-seismic displacement.Understanding the mechanisms of the subduction zone earthquakes is both challenging sCientifically and important for assessing the related earthquake hazards. In many subduction zones, thrust earthquakes may have characteristic patterns in space and time. However, the mechanism of mega events still remains largely unresolved.Large subduction zone earthquakes are usually associated with high amplitude co-seismic deformation above the plate boundary megathrust and the elastic relaxation of the fore-arc. These are expressed as vertical changes in land level with the up-dip part of the rupture surface uplifted and the areas above the down-dip edge subsided. One of the most characteristic pattern associated with the inter-seismic era is that the deformation is in an opposite sense that of co-seismic period.This work was started in 2002 to understand the tectonic deformation along the Andaman-Nicobar arc using seismological, geological and geodetic data. The occurrence of the 2004 megathrust earthquake gave a new dimension to this study, by providing an opportunity to examine the co-seismic deformation associated with the greatest earthquake to have occurred since the advent of Global Positioning System (GPS) and broadband seismometry. The major objectives of this study are to assess the pre-seismic stress regimes, to determine the pre-seismic convergence rate, to analyze and interpret the pattern of co-seismic displacement and slip on various segments and to look out for any possible recurrence interval for megathrust event occurrence for Andaman-Nicobar subduction zone. This thesis is arranged in six chapters with further subdivisions dealing all the above aspects.

Haematology of Fenneropenaeus indicus in response to environmental alterations and microbial infections

Aquaculture has developed to become one of the fastest growing food producing sectors in the world.Today India is one among the major shrimp producing countries in the world.There are extensive and intensive shrimp culture practices. In extensive shrimp culture, shrimps are stocked at low densities (< 25 PLs m'2)in large ponds or tidal enclosures in which little or no management is exercised or possible. Farmers depend almost entirely on natural conditions in extensive cultures. Intensive shrimp culture is carried out in high densities (>200 PLs m'2). Much of the world shrimp production still comes from extensive culture.There is a growing demand for fish and marine products for human and animal consumption. This demand has led to rapid growth of aquaculture, which some times has been accompanied by ecological impacts and economic loss due to diseases. The expansion of shrimp culture always accompanies local environmental degradation and occurrence of diseases.Disease out breaks is recognised as a significant constraint to aquaculture production. Environmental factors, water quality, pollution due to effluent discharge and pathogenic invasion due to vertical and horizontal transmission are the main causes of shrimp disease out breaks. Nutritional imbalance, toxicant and other pollutants also account for the onset of diseases. pathogens include viruses, bacteria, fungi and parasites.Viruses are the most economically significant pathogens of the cultured shrimps world wide. Disease control in shrimp aquaculture should focus first on preventive measures for eliminating disease promoting factors.ln order to design prophylactic and proactive measures against shrimp diseases, it is mandatory to understand the immune make up of the cultivable species, its optimum culture conditions and the physico chemical parameters of the rearing environment. It has been proven beyond doubt that disease is an end result of complex interaction of environment, pathogen and the host animal. The aquatic environment is abounded with infectious microbes.The transmission of disease in this environment is extremely easy, especially under dense, culture conditions. Therefore, a better understanding of the immune responses of the cultured animal in relation to its environmental alterations and microbial invasions is essential indevising strategic measures against aquaculture loss due to diseases. This study accentuate the importance of proper and regular health monitoring in shrimps employing the most appropriate haematological biomarkers for application of suitable prophylactic measures in order to avoid serious health hazards in shrimp culture systems.

Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

Setilement of motor accidents claims with special reference to Kerala

The accident toll on our road traffic is staggering. Obviously this appalling toll of life and.health represents heavy economic loss in addition to human tragedy. the enormous increase in the number of motor vehicles with its rash, negligent and reckless use by unscrupulous, inexperienced and dangerous drivers in the most miserably managed roads coupled with concomitant hazards would draw our attention that Accident Prevention, and Accident compensation are thoroughly two compatiable aims. Proposed solutions to the traffic Problems abound. Preventive efforts concentrated on each of the variables the driver, the road and the vehicle are all being initiated. Still it is a Will the .Motor Vehicles are not considered as dangerous machines. Motoring activity is found useful.A competent and specially trained police force has to be created to deal with the traffic offences in a more scientific ways.The term ‘legal representative needs to be defined on the constructive aspects of relation and dependence.Services of legal aid and public counsels shall necessarily be extended to the poor Motor Accident victims.Timely reporting and timely investigation of Motor Accidents cases will reduce the number of fraudulent claims. There are instances where cases are taken in to investigation after several months of occurrence.It is hoped that the suggestions made above as a result of the present study, if pwgninto practice, may make a humble contribution to the prevention sssof motor accidents and to a faster and speedier settlement of motor accident compensation claims.

Spray Pyrolysed Tin Chalcogenide Thin Films: Optimization of optoelectronic properties of SnS for possible photovoltaic application as an absorber layer

In the early 19th century, industrial revolution was fuelled mainly by the development of machine based manufacturing and the increased use of coal. Later on, the focal point shifted to oil, thanks to the mass-production technology, ease of transport/storage and also the (less) environmental issues in comparison with the coal!! By the dawn of 21st century, due to the depletion of oil reserves and pollution resulting from heavy usage of oil the demand for clean energy was on the rising edge. This ever growing demand has propelled research on photovoltaics which has emerged successful and is currently being looked up to as the only solace for meeting our present day energy requirements. The proven PV technology on commercial scale is based on silicon but the recent boom in the demand for photovoltaic modules has in turn created a shortage in supply of silicon. Also the technology is still not accessible to common man. This has onset the research and development work on moderately efficient, eco-friendly and low cost photovoltaic devices (solar cells). Thin film photovoltaic modules have made a breakthrough entry in the PV market on these grounds. Thin films have the potential to revolutionize the present cost structure of solar cells by eliminating the use of the expensive silicon wafers that alone accounts for above 50% of total module manufacturing cost.Well developed thin film photovoltaic technologies are based on amorphous silicon, CdTe and CuInSe2. However the cell fabrication process using amorphous silicon requires handling of very toxic gases (like phosphene, silane and borane) and costly technologies for cell fabrication. In the case of other materials too, there are difficulties like maintaining stoichiometry (especially in large area films), alleged environmental hazards and high cost of indium. Hence there is an urgent need for the development of materials that are easy to prepare, eco-friendly and available in abundance. The work presented in this thesis is an attempt towards the development of a cost-effective, eco-friendly material for thin film solar cells using simple economically viable technique. Sn-based window and absorber layers deposited using Chemical Spray Pyrolysis (CSP) technique have been chosen for the purpose

Nonparametric Estimation of Survivor Function in Bivariate Competing Risk Models’

So far, in the bivariate set up, the analysis of lifetime (failure time) data with multiple causes of failure is done by treating each cause of failure separately. with failures from other causes considered as independent censoring. This approach is unrealistic in many situations. For example, in the analysis of mortality data on married couples one would be interested to compare the hazards for the same cause of death as well as to check whether death due to one cause is more important for the partners’ risk of death from other causes. In reliability analysis. one often has systems with more than one component and many systems. subsystems and components have more than one cause of failure. Design of high-reliability systems generally requires that the individual system components have extremely high reliability even after long periods of time. Knowledge of the failure behaviour of a component can lead to savings in its cost of production and maintenance and. in some cases, to the preservation of human life. For the purpose of improving reliability. it is necessary to identify the cause of failure down to the component level. By treating each cause of failure separately with failures from other causes considered as independent censoring, the analysis of lifetime data would be incomplete. Motivated by this. we introduce a new approach for the analysis of bivariate competing risk data using the bivariate vector hazard rate of Johnson and Kotz (1975).

Fish Driven Bioturbation as a Viable Aquaculture Technology for Increasing Production and Improving Ecological Sustainability of Giant Tiger Shrimp Penaeus Monodon (FABRlClUS)

A general introduction to the problems faced in the shrimp culture due to waste formation and its consequent environmental hazards and production problems of Giant tiger shrimp, Penaeus monodon is highlighted by the author in this thesis. The objective of the present work was to assess the potential of brackish water finfish to improve bottom soil conditions and thereby increase the growth and production of Penaeus monodon. The salient findings of the present study are summarized in chapter 7. This is followed by the references cited in the thesis and list ofpublications originated from the present study.

“Population Characteristics, Fishery and Post larval distribution of Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man) and M. idella (Hilgendorf) of Vembanad lake”

Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man) and M.ide77a (Hilgendorf) form two commercially important Palaemonid prawns of the Vembanad lake (9 28' and 10 10’ N and 76 13' and 76 31' E). Both of them were known to have contributed to a very lucrative fishery during the sixties, however, in recent years these natural resources have badly depleted owing to the impact of many man made alterations brought about in the ecosystem such as habitat reduction, physical obstruction imposed in the migratory pathway of these species, pollution hazards, etc,. Changed environmental conditions and increased fishing pressures caused persistent alterations in the stock size of these prawns during the past so many years, however, no serious attempt was made to monitor the stock size from time to time and also to bring out the resource characteristics. Though, the morphotypic differentiation in grow out male population of M.rosenbergii has been documented, no similar studies were conducted with regard to natural male and female population. Based on the data collected during fishery cruise surveys conducted in Vembanad lake from March '94 to February '96, population characteristics. postlarval distribution, fishery and population dynamics of M.rosenbergii and M.ide77a of the lake were studied in detail.

Computational models for the prediction of severe thunderstorms over east indian region

Thunderstorm is one of the most spectacular weather phenomena in the atmosphere. Many parts over the Indian region experience thunderstorms at higher frequency during pre-monsoon months (March- May), when the atmosphere is highly unstable because of high temperatures prevailing at lower levels. Most dominant feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon season over the eastern Indo-Gangetic plain and northeast India is the outburst of severe local convective storms, commonly known as ‘Nor’wester’ or ‘Kalbaishakhi’. The severe thunderstorms associated with thunder, squall line, lightning and hail cause extensive losses in agriculture, damage to structure and also loss of life. The casualty due to lightning associated with thunderstorms in this region is the highest in the world. The highest numbers of aviation hazards are reported during occurrence of these thunderstorms. In India, 72% of tornadoes are associated with this thunderstorm.

”Public Health Protection through Air Quality Controls”

Health is an important aspect of everybody’s life. Today, there is an increasing recognition and commitment to the pursuit of health both within government and beyond. Any attempt on the part of the " State to protect and promote people’s health, in turn, must be accompanied by effective controls on air quality, as air constitutes ‘ one of the important elements of man’s life and the consequences of air pollution covers a very wide spectrum ranging from material ---damage to personal discomfort and illness. The broad social and economic objectives adumbrated in the Directive Principles of State Policy including the commitment to improve public health underlying in Article 47 and the obligation to preserve and protect-the natural environment cast under Article 48A of the Constitution are being used as versatile weapons by the State to regulate the public health scenario. Preservation and maintenance of air quality is a significant area within the sphere of public health, where the regulatory arm of the law is not adequately touched and in this arena urgent State intervention through legislative and administrative action is called for in the well-being of the society. Judiciary also plays a pivotal role in this arena in the larger interest of the society and for the benefit of the present and future generations. The research study is an attempt to analyze how far the existing legal system, for maintaining air quality and in controlling air pollution, is effective in protecting public health. The study also analyzes the limitations of the control mechanisms. The study focuses on industrial air pollution, indoor and personal air pollution, vehicular pollution and noise pollution which are today appearing as the major public health hazards affecting the air quality. However, this is not to overlook the importance of controls required under other areas of public health.