Development and parameterization of a rain- and fire-driven model for exploring elephant effects in African savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree-grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

The effects of prediction, understanding, and control: A test of the stress antidote model

A study was undertaken to examine further the effects of perceived work control on employee adjustment. On the basis of the stress antidote model, it was proposed that high levels of prediction, understanding, and control of work-related events would have direct, indirect, and interactive effects on levels of employee adjustment. These hypotheses were tested in a short-term longitudinal study of 137 employees of a large retail organization. The stress antidote measures appeared to be indirectly related to employee adjustment, via their effects on perceptions of work stress. There was weak evidence for the proposal that prediction, understanding, and control would buffer the negative effects of work stress. Additional analyses indicated that the observed effects of prediction, understanding, and control were independent of employees' generalized control beliefs. However, there was no support for the proposal that the effects of the stress antidote measures would be dependent on employees' generalized control beliefs.

Simplified Mathematical Model for Effects of Freezing on the Low-Temperature Performance of the Lead-Acid Battery

Discharge periods of lead-acid batteries are significantly reduced at subzero centigrade temperatures. The reduction is more than what can he expected due to decreased rates of various processes caused by a lowering of temperature and occurs despite the fact that active materials are available for discharge. It is proposed that the major cause for this is the freezing of the electrolyte. The concentration of acid decreases during battery discharge with a consequent increase in the freezing temperature. A battery freezes when the discharge temperature falls below the freezing temperature. A mathematical model is developed for conditions where charge-transfer reaction is the rate-limiting step. and Tafel kinetics are applicable. It is argued that freezing begins from the midplanes of electrodes and proceeds toward the reservoir in-between. Ionic conduction stops when one of the electrodes freezes fully and the time taken to reach that point, namely the discharge period, is calculated. The predictions of the model compare well to observations made at low current density (C/5) and at -20 and -40 degrees C. At higher current densities, however, diffusional resistances become important and a more complicated moving boundary problem needs to be solved to predict the discharge periods. (C) 2009 The Electrochemical Society.

Effects of particle size distribution in the response of model granular materials in multi-ring shear

Rail track undergoes complex loading patterns under moving traffic conditions compared to roads due to its continued and discontinued multi-layered structure, including rail, sleepers, ballast layer, sub-ballast layer, and subgrade. Particle size distributions (PSDs) of ballast, subballast, and subgrade layers can be critical in cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under moving traffic on frequent track degradation of rail tracks, especially at bridge transition zones. Conventional test approaches: static shear and cyclic single-point load tests are however unable to replicate actual loading patterns of moving train. Multi-ring shear apparatus; a new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, which can reproduce moving traffic conditions, was used in this study to investigate influence of particle size distribution of rail track layers on cyclic plastic deformation. Three particle size distributions, using glass beads were examined under different loading patterns: cyclic sin-gle-point load, and cyclic moving wheel load to evaluate cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under different loading methods. The results of these tests suggest that particle size distributions of rail track structural layers have significant impacts on cyclic plastic deformation under moving train load. Further, the limitations in con-ventional test methods used in laboratories to estimate the plastic deformation of rail track materials lead to underestimate the plastic deformation of rail tracks.

Undersowing in a northern climate: effects on spring cereal yield and risk of nitrate leaching

Disadvantages of invariable cereal cropping, concern of nutrient leaching and prices of nitrogen (N) fertilizer have all increased during last decades. An undersown crop, which grows together with a main crop and after harvest, could mitigate all those questions. The aim of this study was to develop undersowing in Finnish conditions, so that it suits for spring cereal farming as well as possible and enhances taking care of soil and environment, especially when control of N is concerned. In total, 17 plant species were undersown in spring cereals during the field experiments between 1991-1999 at four sites in South and Central Finland, but after selection, eight of them were studied more thoroughly. Two legumes, one grass species and one mixture of them were included in long-term trials in order to study annually repeated undersowing. Further, simultaneous broadcasting of seeds instead of separate undersowing was studied. Grain yield response and the capacity of the undersown crop to absorb soil N or fix N from atmosphere, and the release of N were of greatest interest. Seeding rates of undersown crops and N fertilization rates during annually repeated undersowing were also studied. Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam., IR) absorbed soil nitrate N (NO3-N) most efficiently in autumn and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in spring. The capacity of other grass species to absorb N was low, or it was insufficient considering the negative effect on grain yield. Red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and white clover (Trifolium repens L.) suited well in annually repeated undersowing, supplying fixed N for cereals without markedly increased risk of N leaching. Autumn oriented growth rhythm of the studied legumes was optimal for undersowing, whereas the growth rhythm of grasses was less suited but varied between species. A model of adaptive undersowing system was outlined in order to emphasize allocation of measures according needs. After defining the goal of undersowing, many decisions are to be done. When diminishing N leaching is primarily sought, a mixture of IR and timothy is advantageous. Clovers suit for replacing N fertilization, as the positive residual effect is greater than the negative effect caused by competition. A mixture of legume and non legume is a good choice when increased diversity is the main target. Seeding rate is an efficient means for adjusting competition and N effects. Broadcasting with soil covering equipment can be used to establish an undersown crop. In addition, timing and method of cover crop termination have an important role in the outcome. Continuous observing of the system is needed as for instance conditions significantly affect growth of undersown crop and on the other hand N release from crop residues may increase in long run.

Mixture Effects of Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene and Xylenes (BTEX) to Lung Carcinoma Cells via a Hanging Drop Air Exposure System

A recently developed hanging drop air exposure system for toxicity studies of volatile chemicals was applied to evaluate the cell viability of lung carcinoma A549 cells after 1 h and 24 h of exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) as individual compounds and mixtures of 4 or 6 components. The cellular chemical concentrations causing 50% reduction of cell viability (EC50) were calculated use a mass balance model and came to 17, 12, 11, 9, 4 and 4 mmol/kg cell dry weight for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m-xylene, o-xylene and p-xylene respectively after 1 h of exposure. The EC50 decreased by a factor of four after 24 h of exposure. All mixture effects were best described by the mixture toxicity model of concentration addition, which is valid for chemicals with the same mode of action. Good agreement with the model predictions were found for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and m-xylene at four different representative fixed concentration ratios after 1 h of exposure but lower agreement to mixture prediction was obtained after 24 h of exposure. A recreated car exhaust mixture, which involved the contribution of the more toxic p-xylene and o-xylene, yielded an acceptable but lower quality prediction as well.

Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data

It is common to model the dynamics of fisheries using natural and fishing mortality rates estimated independently using two separate analyses. Fishing mortality is routinely estimated from widely available logbook data, whereas natural mortality estimations have often required more specific, less frequently available, data. However, in the case of the fishery for brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay, both fishing and natural mortality rates have been estimated from logbook data. The present work extended the fishing mortality model to incorporate an eco-physiological response of tiger prawn to temperature, and allowed recruitment timing to vary from year to year. These ecological characteristics of the dynamics of this fishery were ignored in the separate model that estimated natural mortality. Therefore, we propose to estimate both natural and fishing mortality rates within a single model using a consistent set of hypotheses. This approach was applied to Moreton Bay brown tiger prawn data collected between 1990 and 2010. Natural mortality was estimated by maximum likelihood to be equal to 0.032 ± 0.002 week−1, approximately 30% lower than the fixed value used in previous models of this fishery (0.045 week−1).

Calculations of the free energy of interaction of the c-Fos−c-Jun coiled coil: Effects of the solvation model and the inclusion of polarization effects

The leucine zipper region of activator protein-1 (AP-1) comprises the c-Jun and c-Fos proteins and constitutes a well-known coiled coil protein−protein interaction motif. We have used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in conjunction with the molecular mechanics/Poisson−Boltzmann generalized-Born surface area [MM/PB(GB)SA] methods to predict the free energy of interaction of these proteins. In particular, the influence of the choice of solvation model, protein force field, and water potential on the stability and dynamic properties of the c-Fos−c-Jun complex were investigated. Use of the AMBER polarizable force field ff02 in combination with the polarizable POL3 water potential was found to result in increased stability of the c-Fos−c-Jun complex. MM/PB(GB)SA calculations revealed that MD simulations using the POL3 water potential give the lowest predicted free energies of interaction compared to other nonpolarizable water potentials. In addition, the calculated absolute free energy of binding was predicted to be closest to the experimental value using the MM/GBSA method with independent MD simulation trajectories using the POL3 water potential and the polarizable ff02 force field, while all other binding affinities were overestimated.

Effects of mould filling on evolution of the solid-liquid interface during solidification

This work presents a numerical analysis of simultaneous mould filling and phase change for solidification in a two-dimensional rectangular cavity. The role of residual flow strength and temperature gradients within the solidifying domain, caused by the filling process, on the evolution of solidification interface are investigated. An implicit volume of fluid (VOF)-based algorithm has been employed for simulating the free surface flows during the filling process, while the model for solidification is based on a fixed-grid enthalpy-based control volume approach. Solidification modeling is coupled with VOF through User Defined Functions developed in the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT 6.3.26. Comparison between results of the conventional analysis without filling effect and those of the present analysis shows that the residual flow resulting from the filling process significantly influences the progress of the solidification interface. A parametric study is also performed with variables such as cooling rate, filling velocity and filling configuration, in order to investigate the coupled effects of the buoyancy-driven flow and the residual flow on the solidification behavior.

The effects of low-intensity ultrasound in bioabsorbable self-reinforced poly-L-lactide -fixed cancellous bone fracture

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of low-intensity ultrasound on bioabsorbable self-reinforced poly-L-lactide (SR-PLLA) screws and on fracture healing after SR-PLLA device fixation in experimental and clinical cancellous bone fracture. In the first experimental study, the assessment of the mechanical strengths of the SR-PLLA screws was performed after 12 weeks of daily 20-minute ultrasound exposure in vitro. In the second experimental study, 32 male Wistar rats with an experimental distal femur osteotomy fixed with an SR-PLLA rod were exposed for daily low-intensity ultrasound treatment for 21 days. The effects on the healing bone were assessed. The clinical studies consist of three prospective, randomized, and placebo-controlled series of dislocated lateral malleolar fractures fixed with one SR-PLLA screw. The total number of the patients in these series was 52. Half of the patients were provided randomly with a sham ultrasound device. The patients underwent ultrasound therapy 20 minutes daily for six weeks. Radiological bone healing was assessed both by radiographs at two, six, nine, and 12 weeks and by multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scans at two weeks, nine weeks, and 18 months. Bone mineral density was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The clinical outcome was assessed by both Olerud-Molander scoring and clinical examination of the ankle. Low-intensity ultrasound had no effects on the mechanical properties and degradation behaviour of the SR-PLLA screws in vitro. There were no obvious signs of low-intensity ultrasound-induced enhancement in the bone healing in SR-PLLA-rod-fixed metaphyseal distal femur osteotomy in rats. The biocompatibility of low-intensity ultrasound treatment and SR-PLLA was found to be good. In the clinical series low-intensity ultrasound was observed to have no obvious effects on the bone mineral density of the fractured lateral malleolus. There were no obvious differences in the radiological bone healing times of the SR-PLLA-screw-fixed lateral malleolar fractures after low-intensity ultrasound treatment. Low-intensity ultrasound did not have any effects on radiological bone morphology, bone mineral density or clinical outcome 18 months after the injury. There were no obvious findings in the present study to support the hypothesis that low-intensity pulsed ultrasound enhances bone healing in SR-PLLA-rod-fixed experimental metaphyseal distal femur osteotomy in rats or in clinical SR-PLLA-screw-fixed lateral malleolar fractures. It is important to limit the conclusions of the present set of studies only to lateral malleolar fractures fixed with an SR-PLLA screw.

Studies on orographic effects in a numerical weather prediction model

Numerical models, used for atmospheric research, weather prediction and climate simulation, describe the state of the atmosphere over the heterogeneous surface of the Earth. Several fundamental properties of atmospheric models depend on orography, i.e. on the average elevation of land over a model area. The higher is the models' resolution, the more the details of orography directly influence the simulated atmospheric processes. This sets new requirements for the accuracy of the model formulations with respect to the spatially varying orography. Orography is always averaged, representing the surface elevation within the horizontal resolution of the model. In order to remove the smallest scales and steepest slopes, the continuous spectrum of orography is normally filtered (truncated) even more, typically beyond a few gridlengths of the model. This means, that in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, there will always be subgridscale orography effects, which cannot be explicitly resolved by numerical integration of the basic equations, but require parametrization. In the subgrid-scale, different physical processes contribute in different scales. The parametrized processes interact with the resolved-scale processes and with each other. This study contributes to building of a consistent, scale-dependent system of orography-related parametrizations for the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The system comprises schemes for handling the effects of mesoscale (MSO) and small-scale (SSO) orographic effects on the simulated flow and a scheme of orographic effects on the surface-level radiation fluxes. Representation of orography, scale-dependencies of the simulated processes and interactions between the parametrized and resolved processes are discussed. From the high-resolution digital elevation data, orographic parameters are derived for both momentum and radiation flux parametrizations. Tools for diagnostics and validation are developed and presented. The parametrization schemes applied, developed and validated in this study, are currently being implemented into the reference version of HIRLAM.

Diabetic cardiomyopathy and post-infarct ventricular remodelling : Effects of levosimendan in a rodent model of type II diabetes

Type 2 diabetes is a risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. Recently, the term diabetic cardiomyopathy has been proposed to describe the changes in the heart that occur in response to chronic hyperglycemia and insulin resistance. Ventricular remodelling in diabetic cardiomyopathy includes left ventricular hypertrophy, increased interstitial fibrosis, apoptosis and diastolic dysfunction. Mechanisms behind these changes are increased oxidative stress and renin-angiotensin system activation. The diabetic Goto-Kakizaki rat is a non-obese model of type 2 diabetes that exhibits defective insulin signalling. Recently two interconnected stress response pathways have been discovered that link insulin signalling, longevity, apoptosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy. The insulin-receptor PI3K/Ak pathway inhibits proapoptotic FOXO3a in response to insulin signalling and the nuclear Sirt1 deacetylase inhibits proapoptotic p53 and modulates FOXO3a in favour of survival and growth. --- Levosimendan is a calcium sensitizing agent used for the management of acute decompensated heart failure. Levosimendan acts as a positive inotrope by sensitizing cardiac troponin C to calcium and exerts vasodilation by opening mitochondrial and sarcolemmal ATP-sensitive potassium channels. Levosimendan has been described to have beneficial effects in ventricular remodelling after myocardial infarction. The aims of the study were to characterize whether diabetic cardiomyopathy associates with cardiac dysfunction, cardiomyocyte apoptosis, hypertrophy and fibrosis in spontaneously diabetic Goto-Kakizaki (GK) rats, which were used to model type 2 diabetes. Protein expression and activation of the Akt FOXO3a and Sirt1 p53 pathways were examined in the development of ventricular remodelling in GK rats with and without myocardial infarction (MI). The third and fourth studies examined the effects of levosimendan on ventricular remodelling and gene expression in post-MI GK rats. The results demonstrated that diabetic GK rats develop both modest hypertension and features similar to diabetic cardiomyopathy including cardiac dysfunction, LV hypertrophy and fibrosis and increased apoptotic signalling. MI induced a sustained increase in cardiomyocyte apoptosis in GK rats together with aggravated LV hypertrophy and fibrosis. The GK rat myocardium exhibited decreased Akt- FOXO3a phosphorylation and increased nuclear translocation of FOXO3a and overproduction of the Sirt1 protein. Treatment with levosimendan decreased cardiomyocyte apoptosis, senescence and LV hypertrophy and altered the gene expression profile in GK rat myocardium. The findings indicate that impaired cardioprotection via Akt FOXO3a and p38 MAPK is associated with increased apoptosis, whereas Sirt1 functions in counteracting apoptosis and the development of LV hypertrophy in the GK rat myocardium. Overall, levosimendan treatment protects against post-MI ventricular remodelling and alters the gene expression profile in the GK rat myocardium.