Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results

Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project (WaterMIP), which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multi-model global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5 degree spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-year period (1985-1999) using a newly-developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm year-1 (60,000 to 85,000 km3 year-1) and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm year-1 (42,000 to 66,000 km3 year-1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically-based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between model are major sources of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models, but also some other measure of uncertainty, (e.g. multiple impact models).

The design of probiotic studies to substantiate health claims

The EC Regulation No. 1924/2006 on Nutrition and Health claims made on foods has generated considerable debate and concern among scientists and industry. At the time of writing, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has not approved any probiotic claims despite numerous human trials and meta-analyses showing evidence of beneficial effects. On 29th and 30th September 2010, ten independent, academic scientists with a documented record in probiotic research, met to discuss designs for future probiotic studies to demonstrate health benefits for gut and immune function. The expert panel recommended the following: (i) always formulate a precise and concrete hypothesis, and appropriate goals and parameters before starting a trial; (ii) ensure trials have sufficient sample size, such that they are adequately powered to reach statistically significant conclusions, either supporting or rejecting the a priori hypothesis, taking into account adjustment for multiple testing (this might necessitate more than one recruitment site); (iii) ensure trials are of appropriate duration; (iv) focus on a single, primary objective and only evaluate multiple parameters when they are hypothesis-driven. The panel agreed that there was an urgent need to better define which biomarkers are considered valuable for substantiation of a health claim. As a first step, the panel welcomed the publication on the day of the meeting of EFSA's draft guidance document on immune and gut health, although it came too late for study designs and dossiers to be adjusted accordingly. New validated biomarkers need to be identified in order to properly determine the range of physiological functions influenced by probiotics. In addition, validated biomarkers reflecting risk factors for disease, are required for article 14 claims (EC Regulation No. 1924/2006). Finally, the panel concluded that consensus among scientists is needed to decide appropriate clinical endpoints for trials.

The first five years of the EU Impact Assessment system: a risk economics perspective on gaps between rationale and practice

In 2003 the European Commission started using Impact Assessment (IA) as the main empirical basis for its major policy proposals. The aim was to systematically assess ex ante the economic, social and environmental impacts of EU policy proposals. In parallel, research proliferated in search for theoretical grounds for IAs and in an attempt to evaluate empirically the performance of the first sets of IAs produced by the European Commission. This paper combines conceptual and evaluative studies carried out in the first five years of EU IAs. It concludes that the great discrepancy between rationale and practice calls for a different theoretical focus and a higher emphasis on evaluating empirically crucial risk economics aspects of IAs, such as the value of statistical life, price of carbon, the integration of macroeconomic modelling and scenario analysis.

A new parenthood paradigm for twenty-first century family law in England and Wales?

There are few other areas in family law where incongruence between the legal and social positions is as evident as that concerning parenthood. Recent cases involving lesbian couples and known sperm donors serve to highlight the increasing tension between the respective roles of biology, intention and functional parenting in the attribution of legal parental status. As both legislative and case-law developments have shown, intention is central in some circumstances, but not in others. The main claim of this paper is that this ad hoc approach leads to incoherent and unsatisfactory law: instead of striving to identify a status, what we are really looking to do is to identify the people who assume responsibility for a child. Drawing upon recent case-law, this paper explores how a conceptual reform of the law could result in a principled framework which would place formally recognised intention at the heart of parental status in order to reconnect legal duty with social reality for as many children and parents as possible. Moreover, it would ensure that parental status would not be dictated by the mode of conception of the child (natural or assisted). The analysis identifies the objectives of reform before proposing a new model which, while recognising the social importance of the biological parentage link, would reserve legal status for functional parenthood.

Mid-term evaluation of African Technology Policy Studies Network Phase VI Strategic Plan: for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010

The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) is a multidisciplinary network of researchers, private sector actors, policymakers and civil society. ATPS has the vision to become the leading international centre of excellence and reference in science, technology and innovation (STI) systems research, training and capacity building, communication and sensitization, knowledge brokerage, policy advocacy and outreach in Africa. It has a Regional Secretariat in Nairobi Kenya, and operates through national chapters in 29 countries (including 27 in Africa and two Chapters in the United Kingdom and USA for Africans in the Diaspora) with an expansion plan to cover the entire continent by 2015. The ATPS Phase VI Strategic Plan aims to improve the understanding and functioning of STI processes and systems to strengthen the learning capacity, social responses, and governance of STI for addressing Africa's development challenges, with a specific focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A team of external evaluators carried out a midterm review to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the Strategic Plan for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. The evaluation methodology involved multiple quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the qualitative and quantitative inputs (human resources, financial resources, time, etc.) into ATPS activities (both thematic and facilitative) and their tangible and intangible outputs, outcomes and impacts. Methods included a questionnaire survey of ATPS members and stakeholders, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with members in six countries. Effectiveness of Programmes Under all six strategic goals, very good progress has been made towards planned outputs and outcomes. This is evidenced by key performance indicators (KPIs) generated from desk review, ratings from the survey respondents, and the themes that run through the FGDs. Institutional and Programme Cost Effectiveness Institutional Effectiveness: assessment of institutional effectiveness suggests that adequate management frameworks are in place and are being used effectively and transparently. Also technical and financial accounting mechanisms are being followed in accordance with grant agreements and with global good practice. This is evidenced by KPIs generated from desk review. Programme Cost Effectiveness: assessment of cost-effectiveness of execution of programmes shows that organisational structure is efficient, delivering high quality, relevant research at relatively low cost by international standards. The evidence includes KPIs from desk review: administrative costs to programme cost ratio has fallen steadily, to around 10%; average size of research grants is modest, without compromising quality. There is high level of pro bono input by ATPS members. ATPS Programmes Strategic Evaluation ATPS research and STI related activities are indeed unique and well aligned with STI issues and needs facing Africa and globally. The multi-disciplinary and trans-boundary nature of the research activities are creating a unique group of research scientists. The ATPS approach to research and STI issues is paving the way for the so called Third Generation University (3GU). Understanding this unique positioning, an increasing number of international multilateral agencies are seeking partnership with ATPS. ATPS is seeing an increasing level of funding commitments by Donor Partners. Recommendations for ATPS Continued Growth and Effectiveness On-going reform of ATPS administrative structure to continue The on-going reforms that have taken place within the Board, Regional Secretariat, and at the National Chapter coordination levels are welcomed. Such reform should continue until fully functional corporate governance policy and practices are fully established and implemented across the ATPS governance structures. This will further strengthen ATPS to achieve the vision of being the leading STI policy brokerage organization in Africa. Although training in corporate governance has been carried out for all sectors of ATPS leadership structure in recent time, there is some evidence that these systems have not yet been fully implemented effectively within all the governance structures of the organization, especially at the Board and National chapter levels. Future training should emphasize practical application with exercises relevant to ATPS leadership structure from the Board to the National Chapter levels. Training on Transformational Leadership - Leading a Change Though a subject of intense debate amongst economists and social scientists, it is generally agreed that cultural mindsets and attitudes could enhance and/or hinder organizational progress. ATPS’s vision demands transformational leadership skills amongst its leaders from the Board members to the National Chapter Coordinators. To lead such a change, ATPS leaders must understand and avoid personal and cultural mindsets and value systems that hinder change, while embracing those that enhance it. It requires deliberate assessment of cultural, behavioural patterns that could hinder progress and the willingness to be recast into cultural and personal habits that make for progress. Improvement of relationship amongst the Board, Secretariat, and National Chapters A large number of ATPS members and stakeholders feel they do not have effective communications and/or access to Board, National Chapter Coordinators and Regional Secretariat activities. Effort should be made to improve the implementation of ATPS communication strategy to improve on information flows amongst the ATPS management and the members. The results of the survey and the FGDs suggest that progress has been made during the past two years in this direction, but more could be done to ensure effective flow of pertinent information to members following ATPS communications channels. Strategies for Increased Funding for National Chapters There is a big gap between the fundraising skills of the Regional Secretariat and those of the National Coordinators. In some cases, funds successfully raised by the Secretariat and disbursed to national chapters were not followed up with timely progress and financial reports by some national chapters. Adequate training in relevant skills required for effective interactions with STI key policy players should be conducted regularly for National Chapter coordinators and ATPS members. The ongoing training in grant writing should continue and be made continent-wide if funding permits. Funding of National Chapters should be strategic such that capacity in a specific area of research is built which, with time, will not only lead to a strong research capacity in that area, but also strengthen academic programmes. For example, a strong climate change programme is emerging at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), with strong collaborations with Universities from neighbouring States. Strategies to Increase National Government buy-in and support for STI Translating STI research outcomes into policies requires a great deal of emotional intelligence, skills which are often lacking in the first and second generation universities. In the epoch of the science-based or 2GUs, governments were content with universities carrying out scientific research and providing scientific education. Now they desire to see universities as incubators of new science- or technology-based commercial activities, whether by existing firms or start-ups. Hence, governments demand that universities take an active and leading role in the exploitation of their knowledge and they are willing to make funds available to support such activities. Thus, for universities to gain the attention of national leadership they must become centres of excellence and explicit instruments of economic development in the knowledge-based economy. The universities must do this while working collaboratively with government departments, parastatals, and institutions and dedicated research establishments. ATPS should anticipate these shifting changes and devise programmes to assist both government and universities to relate effectively. New administrative structures in member organizations to sustain and manage the emerging STI multidisciplinary teams Second Generation universities (2GUs) tend to focus on pure science and often do not regard the application of their know-how as their task. In contrast, Third Generation Universities (3GUs) objectively stimulate techno-starters – students or academics – to pursue the exploitation or commercialisation of the knowledge they generate. They view this as being equal in importance to the objectives of scientific research and education. Administratively, research in the 2GU era was mainly monodisciplinary and departments were structured along disciplines. The emerging interdisciplinary scientific teams with focus on specific research areas functionally work against the current mono-disciplinary faculty-based, administrative structure of 2GUs. For interdisciplinary teams, the current faculty system is an obstacle. There is a need for new organisational forms for university management that can create responsibilities for the task of know-how exploitation. ATPS must anticipate this and begin to strategize solutions for their member institutions to transition to 3Gus administrative structure, otherwise ATPS growth will plateau, and progress achieved so far may be stunted.

Unusual isotope effect in the reaction of chlorosilylene with trimethylsilane-1-d: Absolute rate studies and quantum chemical and Rice–Ramsperger–Kassel–Marcus calculations provide strong evidence for the involvement of an intermediate complex

Time-resolved studies of chlorosilylene, ClSiH, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 1-chloro-1- silacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with trimethylsilane-1-d, Me3SiD, in the gas phase. The reaction was studied at total pressures up to 100 Torr (with and without added SF6) over the temperature range of 295−407 K. The rate constants were found to be pressure independent and gave the following Arrhenius equation: log[(k/(cm3 molecule−1 s−1)] = (−13.22 ± 0.15) + [(13.20 ± 1.00) kJ mol−1]/(RT ln 10). When compared with previously published kinetic data for the reaction of ClSiH with Me3SiH, kinetic isotope effects, kD/kH, in the range from 7.4 (297 K) to 6.4 (407 K) were obtained. These far exceed values of 0.4−0.5 estimated for a single-step insertion process. Quantum chemical calculations (G3MP2B3 level) confirm not only the involvement of an intermediate complex, but also the existence of a low-energy internal isomerization pathway which can scramble the D and H atom labels. By means of Rice−Ramsperger−Kassel−Marcus modeling and a necessary (but small) refinement of the energy surface, we have shown that this mechanism can reproduce closely the experimental isotope effects. These findings provide the first experimental evidence for the isomerization pathway and thereby offer the most concrete evidence to date for the existence of intermediate complexes in the insertion reactions of silylenes.

Studies into the role of the SEF14 fimbrial antigen in the pathogenesis of Salmonella enteritidis

To investigate the role of the SEF14 fimbrial antigen in pathogenesis, a single defined sefA (SEF14(-)) inactivated mutant of Salmonella enteritidis strain LA5 was constructed and tested in a number of biological assay systems. There was no significant difference between the wild-type strain and the isogenic SEF14(-) mutant in their abilities to adhere to and invade HEp-2 epithelial cells or their survival in mouse peritoneal macrophages, whereas the SEF14(-) mutant was ingested more rapidly by isolated human PMN. Both the strains colonized the intestine, invaded and spread systemically in 1 day-old chicks, laying hens and BALB/c mice equally well. A significantly greater number of chicks excreted the wildtype SEF14(+) strain during the first week following infection as compared to those infected with the SEF14(-) mutant. However, similar numbers of chicks excreted the two strains between 2 and 7 weeks after infection. These results indicate that possession of SEF14 fimbriae alone do not appear to play a significant role in the pathogenesis of S. enteritidis although its contribution to virulence may be dependent on the host species infected. (C) 1996 Academic Press Limited

1,1′-Bis(diphenylphosphino)ferrocene bridging two mono(cyclopentadienyl) cobalt moieties: synthesis, structure, electrochemistry and DFT studies

Reaction of [Co(eta(5)-C5H5)(CO)(2)], 1, with 1,1'-bis(diphenylphosphino)ferrocene (dppf) yields the new trinuclear complex [Co(eta(5)-C5H5)(CO)](2)(mu-dppf), 2, which was structurally characterised by single crystal X-ray diffraction and showed two Co(eta(5)-C5H5)(CO) moieties covalently linked by a dppf bridge. Electrochemical studies in dichloromethane revealed that both Co(I) and Fe(II) in the precursors were oxidized to Co(II)/Co(III) and Fe(III), respectively. On the other hand, in 2 the two first oxidation waves were assigned to Co, the Fe(II) centre requiring a higher potential than in free dppf. DFT calculations showed that the HOMOs of 2 were localised in the Co fragments, owing to the destabilisation of the Co(eta(5)-C5H5)(CO) orbitals after binding dppf.

Simulation of late-twenty-first-century changes in wintertime atmospheric circulation over Europe due to anthropogenic causes

Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic--European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

Effects of plant pathogens on population dynamics and community composition in grassland ecosystems: two case studies

Grassland ecosystems comprise a major portion of the earth’s terrestrial surface, ranging from high-input cultivated monocultures or simple species mixtures to relatively unmanaged but dynamic systems. Plant pathogens are a component of these systems with their impact dependent on many interacting factors, including grassland species population dynamics and community composition, the topics covered in this paper. Plant pathogens are affected by these interactions and also act reciprocally by modifying their nature. We review these features of disease in grasslands and then introduce the 150-year long-term Park Grass Experiment (PGE) at Rothamsted Research in the UK. We then consider in detail two plant-pathogen systems present in the PGE, Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium and Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata. These two systems have very different life history characteristics: the first, a biennial member of the Asteraceae infected by its host-specific, systemic rust; the second, a perennial grass infected by a host-non-specific rust. We illustrate how observational, experimental and modelling studies can contribute to a better understanding of population dynamics, competitive interactions and evolutionary outcomes. With Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium, characterised as an “outbreak” species in the PGE, we show that pathogen-induced mortality is unlikely to be involved in host population regulation; and that the presence of even a short-lived seed-bank can affect the qualitative outcomes of the host-pathogen dynamics. With Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata, we show how nutrient conditions can affect adaptation in terms of host defence mechanisms, and that co-existence of competing species affected by a common generalist pathogen is unlikely.

The effects of flavonoid and other polyphenol consumption on cognitive performance: A systematic research review of human experimental and epidemiological studies

Literature reviews suggest flavonoids, a sub-class of polyphenols, are beneficial for cognition. This is the first review examining the effect of consumption of all polyphenol groups on cognitive function. Inclusion criteria were polyphenol vs. control interventions and epidemiological studies with an objective measure of cognitive function. Participants were healthy or mildly cognitively impaired adults. Studies were excluded if clinical assessment or diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, or cognitive impairment was the sole measure of cognitive function, or if the polyphenol was present with potentially confounding compounds such as caffeine (e.g. tea studies) or Ginkgo Biloba. 28 studies were identified; 4 berry juice studies, 4 cocoa studies, 13 isoflavone supplement studies, 3 other supplement studies, and 4 epidemiological surveys. Overall, 16 studies reported cognitive benefits following polyphenol consumption. Evidence suggests that consuming additional polyphenols in the diet can lead to cognitive benefits, however, the observed effects were small. Declarative memory and particularly spatial memory appear most sensitive to polyphenol consumption and effects may differ depending on polyphenol source. Polyphenol berry fruit juice consumption was most beneficial for immediate verbal memory, whereas isoflavone based interventions were associated with significant improvements for delayed spatial memory and executive function. Comparison between studies was hampered by methodological inconsistencies. Hence, there was no clear evidence for an association between cognitive outcomes and polyphenol dose response, duration of intervention, or population studied. In conclusion, however, the findings do imply that polyphenol consumption has potential to benefit cognition both acutely and chronically.

Bridge-localized HOMO-binding character of divinylanthracene-bridged dinuclear ruthenium carbonyl complexes: spectroscopic, spectroelectrochemical, and computational studies

The electronic properties of four divinylanthracene-bridged diruthenium carbonyl complexes [{RuCl(CO)(PMe3)3}2(μ[BOND]CH[DOUBLE BOND]CHArCH[DOUBLE BOND]CH)] (Ar=9,10-anthracene (1), 1,5-anthracene (2), 2,6-anthracene (3), 1,8-anthracene (4)) obtained by molecular spectroscopic methods (IR, UV/Vis/near-IR, and EPR spectroscopy) and DFT calculations are reported. IR spectroelectrochemical studies have revealed that these complexes are first oxidized at the noninnocent bridging ligand, which is in line with the very small ν(C[TRIPLE BOND]O) wavenumber shift that accompanies this process and also supported by DFT calculations. Because of poor conjugation in complex 1, except oxidized 1+, the electronic absorption spectra of complexes 2+, 3+, and 4+ all display the characteristic near-IR band envelopes that have been deconvoluted into three Gaussian sub-bands. Two of the sub-bands belong mainly to metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) transitions according to results from time-dependent DFT calculations. EPR spectroscopy of chemically generated 1+–4+ proves largely ligand-centered spin density, again in accordance with IR spectra and DFT calculations results.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.