Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Finite element analysis of curved anisotropic laminated hollow bars

Curved hollow bars of laminated anisotropic construction are used as structural members in many industries. They are used in order to save weight without loss of stiffness in comparison with solid sections. In this paper are presented the details of the development of the stiffness matrices of laminated anisotropic curved hollow bars under line member assumptions for two typical sections, circular and square. They are 16dof elements which make use of one-dimensional first-order Hermite interpolation polynomials for the description of assumed displacement state. Problems for which analytical or other solutions are available are first solved using these elements. Good agreement was found between the results. In order to show the capability of the element, application is made to carbon fibre reinforced plastic layered anisotropic curved hollow bars.

Exploring privacy for ubiquitous computing: Tools, methods and experiments

Ubiquitous computing is about making computers and computerized artefacts a pervasive part of our everyday lifes, bringing more and more activities into the realm of information. The computationalization, informationalization of everyday activities increases not only our reach, efficiency and capabilities but also the amount and kinds of data gathered about us and our activities. In this thesis, I explore how information systems can be constructed so that they handle this personal data in a reasonable manner. The thesis provides two kinds of results: on one hand, tools and methods for both the construction as well as the evaluation of ubiquitous and mobile systems---on the other hand an evaluation of the privacy aspects of a ubiquitous social awareness system. The work emphasises real-world experiments as the most important way to study privacy. Additionally, the state of current information systems as regards data protection is studied. The tools and methods in this thesis consist of three distinct contributions. An algorithm for locationing in cellular networks is proposed that does not require the location information to be revealed beyond the user's terminal. A prototyping platform for the creation of context-aware ubiquitous applications called ContextPhone is described and released as open source. Finally, a set of methodological findings for the use of smartphones in social scientific field research is reported. A central contribution of this thesis are the pragmatic tools that allow other researchers to carry out experiments. The evaluation of the ubiquitous social awareness application ContextContacts covers both the usage of the system in general as well as an analysis of privacy implications. The usage of the system is analyzed in the light of how users make inferences of others based on real-time contextual cues mediated by the system, based on several long-term field studies. The analysis of privacy implications draws together the social psychological theory of self-presentation and research in privacy for ubiquitous computing, deriving a set of design guidelines for such systems. The main findings from these studies can be summarized as follows: The fact that ubiquitous computing systems gather more data about users can be used to not only study the use of such systems in an effort to create better systems but in general to study phenomena previously unstudied, such as the dynamic change of social networks. Systems that let people create new ways of presenting themselves to others can be fun for the users---but the self-presentation requires several thoughtful design decisions that allow the manipulation of the image mediated by the system. Finally, the growing amount of computational resources available to the users can be used to allow them to use the data themselves, rather than just being passive subjects of data gathering.

Developing standardized methods to assess cost of healthy and unhealthy (current) diets in Australia

Unhealthy diets contribute at least 14% to Australia's disease burden and are driven by ‘obesogenic’ food environments. Compliance with dietary recommendations is particularly poor amongst disadvantaged populations including low socioeconomic groups, those living in rural/remote areas and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The perception that healthy foods are expensive is a key barrier to healthy choices and a major determinant of diet-related health inequities. Available state/regional/local data (limited and non-comparable) suggests that, despite basic healthy foods not incurring GST, the cost of healthy food is higher and has increased more rapidly than unhealthy food over the last 15 years in Australia. However, there were no nationally standardised tools or protocols to benchmark, compare or monitor food prices and affordability in Australia. Globally, we are leading work to develop and test approaches to assess the price differential of healthy and less-healthy (current) diets under the food price module of the International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases (NCDs) Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS). This presentation describes contextualization of the INFORMAS approach to develop standardised Australian tools, survey protocols and data collection and analysis systems. The ‘healthy diet basket’ was based on the Australian Foundation Diet, 1 The ‘current diet basket’ and specific items included in each basket, were based on recent national dietary survey data.2 Data collection methods were piloted. The final tools and protocols were then applied to measure the price and affordability of healthy and less healthy (current) diets of different household groups in diverse communities across the nation. We have compared results for different geographical locations/population subgroups in Australia and assessed these against international INFORMAS benchmarks. The results inform the development of policy and practice, including those relevant to mooted changes to the GST base, to promote nutrition and healthy weight and prevent chronic disease in Australia.

Inductor realisation using a finite gain differential amplifier

A finite gain differential amplifier is used along with a few passive RC elements to simulate an inductor. Methods for obtaining low Q inductance and frequency dependent high QI inductance are described. Sensitivity analysis when the gain varies is also included.

A Finite Variable Difference Relaxation Scheme for hyperbolic-parabolic equations

Using the framework of a new relaxation system, which converts a nonlinear viscous conservation law into a system of linear convection-diffusion equations with nonlinear source terms, a finite variable difference method is developed for nonlinear hyperbolic-parabolic equations. The basic idea is to formulate a finite volume method with an optimum spatial difference, using the Locally Exact Numerical Scheme (LENS), leading to a Finite Variable Difference Method as introduced by Sakai [Katsuhiro Sakai, A new finite variable difference method with application to locally exact numerical scheme, journal of Computational Physics, 124 (1996) pp. 301-308.], for the linear convection-diffusion equations obtained by using a relaxation system. Source terms are treated with the well-balanced scheme of Jin [Shi Jin, A steady-state capturing method for hyperbolic systems with geometrical source terms, Mathematical Modeling Numerical Analysis, 35 (4) (2001) pp. 631-645]. Bench-mark test problems for scalar and vector conservation laws in one and two dimensions are solved using this new algorithm and the results demonstrate the efficiency of the scheme in capturing the flow features accurately.

Computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides

The past several years have seen significant advances in the development of computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides. These methods are generally based on pairwise correlations of amino acids, helical propensity, thermal melts and the energetics of sidechain interactions, as well as statistical patterns based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques. These methods are complemented by a number of public databases that contain sequences, motifs, domains and other details of coiled-coil structures identified by various algorithms. Some of these computational methods have been developed to make predictions of coiled-coil structure on the basis of sequence information; however, structural predictions of the oligomerisation state of these peptides still remains largely an open question due to the dynamic behaviour of these molecules. This review focuses on existing in silico methods for the prediction of coiled-coil peptides of functional importance using sequence and/or three-dimensional structural data.

Underwater Sustainability of the ``Cassie'' State of Wetting

A rough hydrophobic surface when immersed in water can result in a ``Cassie'' state of wetting in which the water is in contact with both the solid surface and the entrapped air. The sustainability of the entrapped air on such surfaces is important for underwater applications such as reduction of flow resistance in microchannels and drag reduction of submerged bodies such as hydrofoils. We utilize an optical technique based oil total internal reflection of light at the water-air interface to quantify the spatial distribution of trapped air oil such a surface and its variation with immersion time. With this technique, we evaluate the sustainability of the Cassie state on hydrophobic surfaces with four different kinds of textures. The textures studied are regular arrays of pillars, ridges, and holes that were created in silicon by a wet etching technique, and also a texture of random craters that was obtained through electrodischarge machining of aluminum. These surfaces were rendered hydrophobic with a self-assembled layer Of fluorooctyl trichlorosilane. Depending on the texture, the size and shape of the trapped air pockets were found to vary. However, irrespective of the texture, both the size and the number of air pockets were found to decrease with time gradually and eventually disappear, suggesting that the sustainability of the ``Cassie'' state is finite for all the microstructures Studied. This is possibly due to diffusion of air from the trapped air pockets into the water. The time scale for disappearance of air pockets was found to depend on the kind of microstructure and the hydrostatic pressure at the water-air interface. For the surface with a regular array of pillars, the air pockets were found to be in the form of a thin layer perched on top of the pillars with a large lateral extent compared to the spacing between pillars. For other surfaces studied, the air pockets are smaller and are of the same order as the characteristic length scale of the texture. Measurements for the surface with holes indicate that the time for air-pocket disappearance reduces as the hydrostatic pressure is increased.

An FETI-preconditioned conjuerate gradient method for large-scale stochastic finite element problems

In the spectral stochastic finite element method for analyzing an uncertain system. the uncertainty is represented by a set of random variables, and a quantity of Interest such as the system response is considered as a function of these random variables Consequently, the underlying Galerkin projection yields a block system of deterministic equations where the blocks are sparse but coupled. The solution of this algebraic system of equations becomes rapidly challenging when the size of the physical system and/or the level of uncertainty is increased This paper addresses this challenge by presenting a preconditioned conjugate gradient method for such block systems where the preconditioning step is based on the dual-primal finite element tearing and interconnecting method equipped with a Krylov subspace reusage technique for accelerating the iterative solution of systems with multiple and repeated right-hand sides. Preliminary performance results on a Linux Cluster suggest that the proposed Solution method is numerically scalable and demonstrate its potential for making the uncertainty quantification Of realistic systems tractable.

Trifurcated (four-center) hydrogen bond in solid state crystal structure of 5'-amino-5'-deoxyadenosine p-toluenesulfonate

The crystal structure of 5'-amino-5'-deoxyadenosine (5'-Am.dA) p-toluenesulfonate has been determined by X-ray crystallographic methods. It belongs to the orthorhombic space group P2(1)2(1)2(1) with a = 7.754(3)Angstrom, b = 8.065(1)Angstrom and c = 32.481(2)Angstrom. This nucleoside side shows a syn conformation about the glycosyl bond and C2'-endo-C3'-exo puckering for the ribose sugar. The orientation of N5' atom is gauche-trans about the exocyclic C4'-C5' bond. The amino nitrogen N5' forms a trifurcated hydrogen bond with N3, O9T and O4' atoms. Adenine bases form A.A.A triplets through hydrogen bonding between N6, N7 and N1 atoms of symmetry related nucleoside molecules.

Assessment of motivation to control alcohol use: The motivational thought frequency and state motivation scales for alcohol control

Introduction The Elaborated Intrusion Theory of Desire holds that desires for functional and dysfunctional goals share a common form. Both are embodied cognitive events, characterised by affective intensity and frequency. Accordingly, we developed scales to measure motivational cognitions for functional goals (Motivational Thought Frequency, MTF; State Motivation, SM), based on the existing Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ). When applied to increasing exercise, MTF and SM showed the same three-factor structure as the CEQ (Intensity, Imagery, Availability). The current study tested the internal structure and concurrent validity of the MTF and SM Scales when applied to control of alcohol consumption (MTF-A; SM-A). Methods Participants (N = 417) were adult tertiary students, staff or community members who had recently engaged in high-risk drinking or were currently trying to control alcohol consumption. They completed an online survey comprising the MTF-A, SM-A, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), Readiness to Change Questionnaire (RCQ) and demographics. Results Confirmatory Factor Analysis gave acceptable fit for the MTF-A, but required the loss of one SM-A item, and was improved by intercorrelations of error terms. Higher scores were associated with more severe problems on the AUDIT and with higher Contemplation and Action scores on the RCQ. Conclusions The MTF-A and SM-A show potential as measures of motivation to control drinking. Future research will examine their predictive validity and sensitivity to change. The scales' application to both increasing functional and decreasing dysfunctional behaviours is consistent with EI Theory's contention that both goal types operate in similar ways.

Role of the triplet state in the green emission peak of polyfluorene films: A time evolution study

The blue emission of ethyl-hexyl substituted polyfluorene (PF2/6) films is accompanied by a low energy green emission peak around 500 nm in inert atmosphere. The intensity of this 500 nm peak is large in electroluminescence (EL) compared to photoluminescence (PL)measurements. Furthermore, the green emission intensity reduces dramatically in the presence of molecular oxygen. To understand this, we have modeled various nonradiative processes by time dependent quantum many body methods. These are (i) intersystem crossing to study conversion of excited singlets to triplets leading to a phosphorescence emission, (ii) electron-hole recombination (e-hR) process in the presence of a paramagnetic impurity to follow the yield of triplets in a polyene system doped with paramagnetic metal atom, and (iii) quenching of excited triplet states in the presence of oxygen molecules to understand the low intensity of EL emission in ambient atmosphere, when compared with that in nitrogen atmosphere. We have employed the Pariser-Parr-Pople Hamiltonian to model the molecules and have invoked electron-electron repulsions beyond zero differential approximation while treating interactions between the organic molecule and the rest of the system. Our time evolution methods show that there is a large cross section for triplet formation in the e-hR process in the presence of paramagnetic impurity with degenerate orbitals. The triplet yield through e-hR process far exceeds that in the intersystem crossing pathway, clearly pointing to the large intensity of the 500 nm peak in EL compared to PL measurements. We have also modeled the triplet quenching process by a paramagnetic oxygen molecule which shows a sizable quenching cross section especially for systems with large sizes. These studies show that the most probable origin of the experimentally observed low energy EL emission is the triplets.

A multistep transversal linearization (MTL) method in non-linear dynamics through a Magnus characterization

A new form of a multi-step transversal linearization (MTL) method is developed and numerically explored in this study for a numeric-analytical integration of non-linear dynamical systems under deterministic excitations. As with other transversal linearization methods, the present version also requires that the linearized solution manifold transversally intersects the non-linear solution manifold at a chosen set of points or cross-section in the state space. However, a major point of departure of the present method is that it has the flexibility of treating non-linear damping and stiffness terms of the original system as damping and stiffness terms in the transversally linearized system, even though these linearized terms become explicit functions of time. From this perspective, the present development is closely related to the popular practice of tangent-space linearization adopted in finite element (FE) based solutions of non-linear problems in structural dynamics. The only difference is that the MTL method would require construction of transversal system matrices in lieu of the tangent system matrices needed within an FE framework. The resulting time-varying linearized system matrix is then treated as a Lie element using Magnus’ characterization [W. Magnus, On the exponential solution of differential equations for a linear operator, Commun. Pure Appl. Math., VII (1954) 649–673] and the associated fundamental solution matrix (FSM) is obtained through repeated Lie-bracket operations (or nested commutators). An advantage of this approach is that the underlying exponential transformation could preserve certain intrinsic structural properties of the solution of the non-linear problem. Yet another advantage of the transversal linearization lies in the non-unique representation of the linearized vector field – an aspect that has been specifically exploited in this study to enhance the spectral stability of the proposed family of methods and thus contain the temporal propagation of local errors. A simple analysis of the formal orders of accuracy is provided within a finite dimensional framework. Only a limited numerical exploration of the method is presently provided for a couple of popularly known non-linear oscillators, viz. a hardening Duffing oscillator, which has a non-linear stiffness term, and the van der Pol oscillator, which is self-excited and has a non-linear damping term.

Influence of spatial variability of permeability property on steady state seepage flow and slope stability analysis

In recent years, spatial variability modeling of soil parameters using random field theory has gained distinct importance in geotechnical analysis. In the present Study, commercially available finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0 is used for modeling the permeability parameter as spatially correlated log-normally distributed random variable and its influence on the steady state seepage flow and on the slope stability analysis are studied. Considering the case of a 5.0 m high cohesive-frictional soil slope of 30 degrees, a range of coefficients of variation (CoV%) from 60 to 90% in the permeability Values, and taking different values of correlation distance in the range of 0.5-15 m, parametric studies, using Monte Carlo simulations, are performed to study the following three aspects, i.e., (i) effect ostochastic soil permeability on the statistics of seepage flow in comparison to the analytic (Dupuit's) solution available for the uniformly constant permeability property; (ii) strain and deformation pattern, and (iii) stability of the given slope assessed in terms of factor of safety (FS). The results obtained in this study are useful to understand the role of permeability variations in slope stability analysis under different slope conditions and material properties. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consistent quaternion interpolation for objective finite element approximation of geometrically exact beam

We explore an isoparametric interpolation of total quaternion for geometrically consistent, strain-objective and path-independent finite element solutions of the geometrically exact beam. This interpolation is a variant of the broader class known as slerp. The equivalence between the proposed interpolation and that of relative rotation is shown without any recourse to local bijection between quaternions and rotations. We show that, for a two-noded beam element, the use of relative rotation is not mandatory for attaining consistency cum objectivity and an appropriate interpolation of total rotation variables is sufficient. The interpolation of total quaternion, which is computationally more efficient than the one based on local rotations, converts nodal rotation vectors to quaternions and interpolates them in a manner consistent with the character of the rotation manifold. This interpolation, unlike the additive interpolation of total rotation, corresponds to a geodesic on the rotation manifold. For beam elements with more than two nodes, however, a consistent extension of the proposed quaternion interpolation is difficult. Alternatively, a quaternion-based procedure involving interpolation of relative rotations is proposed for such higher order elements. We also briefly discuss a strategy for the removal of possible singularity in the interpolation of quaternions, proposed in [I. Romero, The interpolation of rotations and its application to finite element models of geometrically exact rods, Comput. Mech. 34 (2004) 121–133]. The strain-objectivity and path-independence of solutions are justified theoretically and then demonstrated through numerical experiments. This study, being focused only on the interpolation of rotations, uses a standard finite element discretization, as adopted by Simo and Vu-Quoc [J.C. Simo, L. Vu-Quoc, A three-dimensional finite rod model part II: computational aspects, Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 58 (1986) 79–116]. The rotation update is achieved via quaternion multiplication followed by the extraction of the rotation vector. Nodal rotations are stored in terms of rotation vectors and no secondary storages are required.