946 resultados para dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models


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Esta publicación, que reproduce literalmente una conferencia dictada por la autora en el Curso 'La Comedia Latina', impartido en colaboración con A. Pociña en el Centro de Estudios Latinos de la Universidad de La Plata, en el mes de septiembre de 2010, consiste en un recorrido por algunos aspectos importantes de las Comedias de Plauto (vida, comedias en general, cronología, modelos, recursos cómicos, ediciones y traducciones al español, pervivencia); la autora hace especial referencia a la situación de los conocimientos, tal como se encontraba a la altura de 2007, fecha de la publicación del libro de A. López y A. Pociña Comedia romana, subrayando aquellos aspectos que siguen pendientes de nuevos estudios, así como los que son susceptibles de indudables mejoras si se les presta la debida atención

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Under modern conditions only North Pacific Intermediate Water is formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This situation might have changed in the past. Recent studies with general circulation models indicate a switch to deep-water formation in the northwest Pacific during Heinrich Stadial 1 (17.5-15.0 ka) of the last glacial termination. Reconstructions of past ventilation changes based on paleoceanographic proxy records are still insufficient to test whether a deglacial mode of deep-water formation in the North Pacific Ocean existed. Here we present deglacial ventilation records based on radiocarbon-derived ventilation ages in combination with epibenthic stable carbon isotopes from the northwest Pacific including the Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea, the two potential source regions for past North Pacific ventilation changes. Evidence for most rigorous ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific occurred during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, simultaneous to significant reductions in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Concurrent changes in d13C and ventilation ages point to the Okhotsk Sea as driver of millennial-scale changes in North Pacific Intermediate Water ventilation during the last deglaciation. Our records additionally indicate that changes in the d13C intermediate-water (700-1750 m water depth) signature and radiocarbon-derived ventilation ages are in antiphase to those of the deep North Pacific Ocean (>2100 m water depth) during the last glacial termination. Thus, intermediate- and deep-water masses of the northwest Pacific have a differing ventilation history during the last deglaciation.

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The mid-Piacenzian (MP) warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) has been identified as the most recent time in geologic history during which mean global surface temperatures were considerably warmer than today for a sustained period. This interval has therefore been proposed as a potential (albeit imperfect) analog for future climate change and as such, has received much scientific attention over the past two decades. Central to this research effort is the Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project, an iterative paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the MP focused on increasing our understanding of warm-period climate forcings, dynamics, and feedbacks by providing three-dimensional data sets for general circulation models. A mainstay of the PRISM project has been the development of a global sea surface temperature (SST) data set based primarily upon quantitative analyses of planktic foraminifer assemblages, supplemented with geochemical SST estimates wherever possible. In order to improve spatial coverage of the PRISM faunal data set in the low and mid-latitude North Atlantic, this study provides a description of the MP planktic foraminifer assemblage from five Ocean Drilling Program sites (951, 958, 1006, 1062, and 1063) in the subtropical gyre, a region critical to Atlantic Ocean circulation and tropical heat advection. Assemblages from each core provide evidence for a temperature- and circulation-driven 5-10° northward displacement of MP faunal provinces, as well as regional shifts in planktic foraminifer populations linked to species ecology and interactions. General biogeographic trends also indicate that, relative to modern conditions, gyre circulation was stronger (particularly the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current, and North Equatorial Current) and meridionally broader. A comparison of mid-Piacenzian and modern North Atlantic planktic foraminifer assemblages suggests that low latitude western boundary currents were less than 1 °C warmer while eastern boundary currents were ~1-2 °C warmer, supporting the hypothesis of enhanced northward heat advection along western boundary currents and warming of high latitude Northeast Atlantic source regions for the Canary Current. These findings are consistent with a model of reduced meridional SST gradients, with little-to-no low latitude warming, and more vigorous ocean circulation. Results therefore support the theory that enhanced meridional overturn circulation and associated northward heat advection made an important contribution, in conjunction with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, to the 2-3 °C global surface temperature increase (relative to today) and strong polar amplification of SST warmth during the MP warm period.

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Geological reconstructions and general circulation models suggest that the onset of both Northern Hemisphere glaciation, 2.7 Myr ago, and convection of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) were caused by the closure of the Panama Gateway ~4.5 Myr ago. Time series data that have been obtained from studies of ferromanganese crusts from the northwestern Atlantic suggest that radiogenic isotopes of intermediate ocean residence time (Pb and Nd) can serve as suitable tracers to reconstruct these events. However, it has been unclear until now as to whether the changes that have been observed in isotope composition at this time are the result of increased thermohaline circulation or due to the effects of increased glacial weathering. In this paper we adopt a box model approach to demonstrate that the shifts in radiogenic isotope compositions are unlikely to be due to changes in convection in LSW but can be explained in terms of increases of erosion levels due to the glaciation of Greenland and Canada. Furthermore, we provide experimental evidence for the incongruent release of a labile fraction of strongly radiogenic Pb and nonradiogenic Nd from continental detritus eroding into the Labrador Sea. This can be attributed to the glacial weathering of old continents and accounts for the paradox that one of the areas of the world most deficient in radiogenic Pb should provide such a rich supply of radiogenic Pb to the oceans. An important general conclusion is that the compositions of radiogenic isotopes in seawater are not always a reflection of their continental sources. Perhaps more importantly, the transition from chemical weathering to mechanical erosion is likely to result in significant variations in radiogenic tracers in seawater.

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Glassy Turonian foraminifera preserved in clay-rich sediments from the western tropical Atlantic yield the warmest equivalent d18O sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) yet reported for the entire Cretaceous-Cenozoic. We estimate Turonian SSTs that were at least as warm as (conservative mean ~30 °C) to significantly warmer (warm mean ~33 °C) than those in the region today. However, if independent evidence for high middle Cretaceous pCO2 is reliable and resulted in greater isotopic fractionation between seawater and calcite because of lower sea-surface pH, our conservative and warm SST estimates would be even higher (32 and 36°C, respectively). Our new tropical SSTs help reconcile geologic data with the predictions of general circulation models that incorporate high Cretaceous pCO2 and lend support to the hypothesis of a Cretaceous greenhouse. Our data also strengthen the case for a Turonian age for the Cretaceous thermal maximum and highlight a 20-40 m.y. mismatch between peak Cretaceous-Cenozoic global warmth and peak inferred tectonic CO2 production. We infer that this mismatch is either an artifact of a hidden Turonian pulse in global ocean-crust cycling or real evidence of the influence of some other factor on atmospheric CO2 and/or SSTs. A hidden pulse in crust cycling would explain the timing of peak Cretaceous-Cenozoic sea level (also Turonian), but other factors are needed to explain high-frequency (~10-100 k.y.) instability in middle Cretaceous SSTs reported elsewhere.

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We examine the potential impact of TTIP through trade-cost reductions, applying a mix of econometric and computational methods to develop estimates of the benefits (and costs) for the EU, United States, and third countries. Econometric results point to an approximate 80% growth in bilateral trade with an ambitious trade agreement. However, at the same time, computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates highlight distributional impacts across countries and factors not evident from econometrics alone. Translated through our CGE framework, while bilateral trade increases roughly 80%, there is a fall of about 2.5% in trade with the rest of the world in our central case. The estimated gains in annual consumption range between 1% and 2.25% for the United States and EU, respectively. A purely discriminatory agreement would harm most countries outside the agreement, while the direction of third-country effects hinges critically on whether NTB reductions end up being discriminatory or not. Within the United States and EU, while labour gains across skill categories, the impact on farmers is mixed.

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This paper studies the issue of how traded quantities affect trade prices, which has been relatively unexplored in the trade literature. By reproducing previous literatures' regressions which are based on the general equilibrium trade theories, incorporating the role of traded quantities, this paper shows a possibility of prevalence of the second degree price discrimination (quantity discount) in international trade, rather than the pricing behaviour of the general equilibrium theories.

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A plan to construct a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Southern Thailand has been proposed many times since the 17th century. The proposed canal would become an alternative route to the over-crowded Straits of Malacca. In this paper, we attempt to utilize a Geographical Information System (GIS) to calculate the realistic distances between ports that would be affected by the Kra Canal and to estimate the economic impact of the canal using a simulation model based on spatial economics. We find that China, India, Japan, and Europe gain the most from the construction of the canal, besides Thailand. On the other hand, the routes through the Straits of Malacca are largely beneficial to Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, besides Singapore. Thus, it is beneficial for all ASEAN member countries that the Kra Canal and the Straits of Malacca coexist and complement one another.

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Crude oil and natural gas have been essential energy sources and play a crucial role in the world economy. Changes in energy prices significantly impact economic growth. This study builds an econometric model to illustrate the substitute relation between crude oil and natural gas markets. Additionally, the determination of the oil and natural gas prices are endogenized, assuming imperfect competition to reflect a real market strategy. Our empirical results show that the overall performance of this system is acceptable, and the model can be applied to policy analysis for determining monetary or energy policy by introducing this model to the more comprehensive system.

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The dynamic effects of high-speed trains on viaducts are important issues for the design of the structures, as well as for the consideration of safe running conditions for the trains. In this work we start by reviewing the relevance of some basic design aspects. The significance of impact factor envelopes for moving loads is considered first. Resonance which may be achieved for high-speed trains requires dynamic analysis, for which some key aspects are discussed. The relevance of performing a longitudinal distribution of axle loads, the number of modes taken in analysis, and the consideration of vehicle-structure interaction are discussed with representative examples. The lateral dynamic effects of running trains on bridges is of importance for laterally compliant viaducts, such as some very tall structures erected in new high-speed lines. The relevance of this study is mainly for the safety of the traffic, considering both internal actions such as the hunting motion as well as external actions such as wind or earthquakes [1]. These studies require three-dimensional dynamic coupled vehicle-bridge models, and consideration of wheel to rail contact, a phenomenon which is complex and costly to model in detail. We describe here a fully nonlinear coupled model, described in absolute coordinates and incorporated into a commercial finite element framework [2]. The wheel-rail contact has been considered using a FastSim algorithm which provides a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, and captures the main nonlinear response of the contact interface. Two applications are presented, firstly to a vehicle subject to a strong wind gust traversing a bridge, showing the relevance of the nonlinear wheel-rail contact model as well as the dynamic interaction between bridge and vehicle. The second application is to a real HS viaduct with a long continuous deck and tall piers and high lateral compliance [3]. The results show the safety of the traffic as well as the importance of considering features such as track alignment irregularities.

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A linear method is developed for solving the nonlinear differential equations of a lumped-parameter thermal model of a spacecraft moving in a closed orbit. This method, based on perturbation theory, is compared with heuristic linearizations of the same equations. The essential feature of the linear approach is that it provides a decomposition in thermal modes, like the decomposition of mechanical vibrations in normal modes. The stationary periodic solution of the linear equations can be alternately expressed as an explicit integral or as a Fourier series. This method is applied to a minimal thermal model of a satellite with ten isothermal parts (nodes), and the method is compared with direct numerical integration of the nonlinear equations. The computational complexity of this method is briefly studied for general thermal models of orbiting spacecraft, and it is concluded that it is certainly useful for reduced models and conceptual design but it can also be more efficient than the direct integration of the equations for large models. The results of the Fourier series computations for the ten-node satellite model show that the periodic solution at the second perturbative order is sufficiently accurate.

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So far, the majority of reports on on-line measurement considered soil properties with direct spectral responses in near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). This work reports on the results of on-line measurement of soil properties with indirect spectral responses, e.g. pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), exchangeable calcium (Caex) and exchangeable magnesium (Mgex) in one field in Bedfordshire in the UK. The on-line sensor consisted of a subsoiler coupled with an AgroSpec mobile, fibre type, visible and near infrared (vis–NIR) spectrophotometer (tec5 Technology for Spectroscopy, Germany), with a measurement range 305–2200 nm to acquire soil spectra in diffuse reflectance mode. General calibration models for the studied soil properties were developed with a partial least squares regression (PLSR) with one-leave-out cross validation, using spectra measured under non-mobile laboratory conditions of 160 soil samples collected from different fields in four farms in Europe, namely, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherland and UK. A group of 25 samples independent from the calibration set was used as independent validation set. Higher accuracy was obtained for laboratory scanning as compared to on-line scanning of the 25 independent samples. The prediction accuracy for the laboratory and on-line measurements was classified as excellent/very good for pH (RPD = 2.69 and 2.14 and r2 = 0.86 and 0.78, respectively), and moderately good for CEC (RPD = 1.77 and 1.61 and r2 = 0.68 and 0.62, respectively) and Mgex (RPD = 1.72 and 1.49 and r2 = 0.66 and 0.67, respectively). For Caex, very good accuracy was calculated for laboratory method (RPD = 2.19 and r2 = 0.86), as compared to the poor accuracy reported for the on-line method (RPD = 1.30 and r2 = 0.61). The ability of collecting large number of data points per field area (about 12,800 point per 21 ha) and the simultaneous analysis of several soil properties without direct spectral response in the NIR range at relatively high operational speed and appreciable accuracy, encourage the recommendation of the on-line measurement system for site specific fertilisation.

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Wake effect represents one of the most important aspects to be analyzed at the engineering phase of every wind farm since it supposes an important power deficit and an increase of turbulence levels with the consequent decrease of the lifetime. It depends on the wind farm design, wind turbine type and the atmospheric conditions prevailing at the site. Traditionally industry has used analytical models, quick and robust, which allow carry out at the preliminary stages wind farm engineering in a flexible way. However, new models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are needed. These models must increase the accuracy of the output variables avoiding at the same time an increase in the computational time. Among them, the elliptic models based on the actuator disk technique have reached an extended use during the last years. These models present three important problems in case of being used by default for the solution of large wind farms: the estimation of the reference wind speed upstream of each rotor disk, turbulence modeling and computational time. In order to minimize the consequence of these problems, this PhD Thesis proposes solutions implemented under the open source CFD solver OpenFOAM and adapted for each type of site: a correction on the reference wind speed for the general elliptic models, the semi-parabollic model for large offshore wind farms and the hybrid model for wind farms in complex terrain. All the models are validated in terms of power ratios by means of experimental data derived from real operating wind farms.

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To begin to understand mechanistic differences in endocytosis in neurons and nonneuronal cells, we have compared the biochemical properties of the ubiquitously expressed dynamin-II isoform with those of neuron-specific dynamin-I. Like dynamin-I, dynamin-II is specifically localized to and highly concentrated in coated pits on the plasma membrane and can assemble in vitro into rings and helical arrays. As expected, the two closely related isoforms share a similar mechanism for GTP hydrolysis: both are stimulated in vitro by self-assembly and by interaction with microtubules or the SH3 domain-containing protein, grb2. Deletion of the C-terminal proline/arginine-rich domain from either isoform abrogates self-assembly and assembly-dependent increases in GTP hydrolysis. However, dynamin-II exhibits a ∼threefold higher rate of intrinsic GTP hydrolysis and higher affinity for GTP than dynamin-I. Strikingly, the stimulated GTPase activity of dynamin-II can be >40-fold higher than dynamin-I, due principally to its greater propensity for self-assembly and the increased resistance of assembled dynamin-II to GTP-triggered disassembly. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that self-assembly is a major regulator of dynamin GTPase activity and that the intrinsic rate of GTP hydrolysis reflects a dynamic, GTP-dependent equilibrium of assembly and disassembly.

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Darwin observed that multiple, lowly organized, rudimentary, or exaggerated structures show increased relative variability. However, the cellular basis for these laws has never been investigated. Some animals, such as the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, are famous for having organs that possess the same number of cells in all individuals, a property known as eutely. But for most multicellular creatures, the extent of cell number variability is unknown. Here we estimate variability in organ cell number for a variety of animals, plants, slime moulds, and volvocine algae. We find that the mean and variance in cell number obey a power law with an exponent of 2, comparable to Taylor's law in ecological processes. Relative cell number variability, as measured by the coefficient of variation, differs widely across taxa and tissues, but is generally independent of mean cell number among homologous tissues of closely related species. We show that the power law for cell number variability can be explained by stochastic branching process models based on the properties of cell lineages. We also identify taxa in which the precision of developmental control appears to have evolved. We propose that the scale independence of relative cell number variability is maintained by natural selection.