Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

Modeling collision avoidance decisions in navigation

Due to grave potential human, environmental and economical consequences of collisions at sea, collision avoidance has become an important safety concern in navigation. To reduce the risk of collisions at sea, appropriate collision avoidance actions need to be taken in accordance with the regulations, i.e., International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea. However, the regulations only provide qualitative rules and guidelines, and therefore it requires navigators to decide on collision avoidance actions quantitatively by using their judgments which often leads to making errors in navigation. To better help navigators in collision avoidance, this paper develops a comprehensive collision avoidance decision making model for providing whether a collision avoidance action is required, when to take action and what action to be taken. The model is developed based on three types of collision avoidance actions, such as course change only, speed change only, and a combination of both. The model has potential to reduce the chance of making human error in navigation by assisting navigators in decision making on collision avoidance actions.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Aspect oriented business process modeling with precedence

Complexity is a major concern which is aimed to be overcome by people through modeling. One way of reducing complexity is separation of concerns, e.g. separation of business process from applications. One sort of concerns are cross-cutting concerns i.e. concerns which are scattered and tangled through one of several models. In business process management, examples of such concerns are security and privacy policies. To deal with these cross-cutting concerns, the aspect orientated approach was introduced in the software development area and recently also in the business process management area. The work presented in this paper elaborates on aspect oriented process modelling. It extends earlier work by defining a mechanism for capturing multiple concerns and specifying a precedence order according to which they should be handled in a process. A formal syntax of the notation is presented precisely capturing the extended concepts and mechanisms. Finally, the relevant of the approach is demonstrated through a case study.

Dynamic compression improves biosynthesis of human zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis patients

Objective: We hypothesize that chondrocytes from distinct zones of articular cartilage respond differently to compressive loading, and that zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis (OA) patients can benefit from optimized compressive stimulation. Therefore, we aimed to determine the transcriptional response of superficial (S) and middle/deep (MD) zone chondrocytes to varying dynamic compressive strain and loading duration. To confirm effects of compressive stimulation on overall matrix production, we subjected zonal chondrocytes to compression for 2 weeks. Design: Human S and MD chondrocytes from osteoarthritic joints were encapsulated in 2% alginate, pre-cultured, and subjected to compression with varying dynamic strain (5, 15, 50% at 1 Hz) and loading duration (1, 3, 12 h). Temporal changes in cartilage-specific, zonal, and dedifferentiation genes following compression were evaluated using quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). The benefits of long-term compression (50% strain, 3 h/day, for 2 weeks) were assessed by measuring construct glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content and compressive moduli, as well as immunostaining. Results: Compressive stimulation significantly induced aggrecan (ACAN), COL2A1, COL1A1, proteoglycan 4 (PRG4), and COL10A1 gene expression after 2 h of unloading, in a zone-dependent manner (P < 0.05). ACAN and PRG4 mRNA levels depended on strain and load duration, with 50% and 3 h loading resulting in highest levels (P < 0.05). Long-term compression increased collagen type II and ACAN immunostaining and total GAG (P < 0.05), but only S constructs showed more PRG4 stain, retained more GAG (P < 0.01), and developed higher compressive moduli than non-loaded controls. Conclusions: The biosynthetic activity of zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis joints can be enhanced with selected compression regimes, indicating the potential for cartilage tissue engineering applications. © 2012 Osteoarthritis Research Society International.

Small and medium enterprises sourcing software as a service – a dynamic perspective on IS capabilities

Software as a Service (SaaS) is a promising approach for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) firms, in particular those that are focused on growing fast and leveraging new technology, due to the potential benefits arising from its inherent scalability, reduced total cost of ownership and the ease of access to global innovations. This paper proposes a dynamic perspective on IS capabilities to understand and explain SMEs sourcing and levering SaaS. The model is derived from combining the IS capabilities of Feeny and Willcocks (1998) and the dynamic capabilities of Teece (2007) and contextualizing it for SMEs and SaaS. We conclude that SMEs sourcing and leveraging SaaS require leadership, business systems thinking and informed buying for sensing and seizing SaaS opportunities and require leadership and vendor development for transforming in terms of aligning and realigning specific tangible and intangible assets.

Dynamic weaving of aspects for business process management systems

Reducing complexity in Information Systems is a main concern in both research and industry. One strategy for reducing complexity is separation of concerns. This strategy advocates separating various concerns, like security and privacy, from the main concern. It results in less complex, easily maintainable, and more reusable Information Systems. Separation of concerns is addressed through the Aspect Oriented paradigm. This paradigm has been well researched and implemented in programming, where languages such as AspectJ have been developed. However, the rsearch on aspect orientation for Business Process Management is still at its beginning. While some efforts have been made proposing Aspect Oriented Business Process Modelling, it has not yet been investigated how to enact such process models in a Workflow Management System. In this paper, we define a set of requirements that specifies the execution of aspect oriented business process models. We create a Coloured Petri Net specification for the semantics of so-called Aspect Service that fulfils these requirements. Such a service extends the capability of a Workflow Management System with support for execution of aspect oriented business process models. The design specification of the Aspect Service is also inspected through state space analysis.

Modeling and Analyzing the Carbon Footprint of Business Processes

Many corporations and individuals realize that environmental sustainability is an urgent problem to address. In this chapter, we contribute to the emerging academic discussion by proposing two innovative approaches for engaging in the development of environmentally sustainable business processes. Specifically, we describe an extended process modeling approach for capturing and documenting the dioxide emissions produced during the execution of a business process. For illustration, we apply this approach to the case of a governmental Shared Services provider. Second, we then introduce an analysis method for measuring the carbon dioxide emissions produced during the execution of a business process. To illustrative this approach, we apply it in the real-life case of an European airport and show how this information can be leveraged in the re-design of “green” busi-ness processes.

Computational fluid dynamic analysis of intracranial aneurysm bleb Formation (NS26P)

Purpose: The management of unruptured aneurysms remains controversial as treatment infers potential significant risk to the currently well patient. The decision to treat is based upon aneurysm location, size and abnormal morphology (e.g. bleb formation). A method to predict bleb formation would thus help stratify patient treatment. Our study aims to investigate possible associations between intra-aneurysmal flow dynamics and bleb formation within intracranial aneurysms. Competing theories on aetiology appear in the literature. Our purpose is to further clarify this issue. Methodology: We recruited data from 3D rotational angiograms (3DRA) of 30 patients with cerebral aneurysms and bleb formation. Models representing aneurysms pre-bleb formation were reconstructed by digitally removing the bleb, then computational fluid dynamics simulations were run on both pre and post bleb models. Pulsatile flow conditions and standard boundary conditions were imposed. Results: Aneurysmal flow structure, impingement regions, wall shear stress magnitude and gradients were produced for all models. Correlation of these parameters with bleb formation was sought. Certain CFD parameters show significant inter patient variability, making statistically significant correlation difficult on the partial data subset obtained currently. Conclusion: CFD models are readily producible from 3DRA data. Preliminary results indicate bleb formation appears to be related to regions of high wall shear stress and direct impingement regions of the aneurysm wall.

Modeling train delays in urban networks

The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.