Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Loss of phenotypic plasticity generates genotype-caste association in harvester ants.

Caste differentiation and reproductive division of labor are the hallmarks of insect societies. In ants and other social Hymenoptera, development of female larvae into queens or workers generally results from environmentally induced differences in gene expression. However, several cases in which certain gene combinations may determine reproductive status have been described in bees and ants. We investigated experimentally whether genotype directly influences caste determination in two populations of Pogonomyrmex harvester ants in which genotype-caste associations have been observed. Each population contains two genetic lineages. Queens are polyandrous and mate with males of both lineages , but in mature colonies, over 95% of daughter queens have a pure-lineage genome, whereas all workers are of F1 interlineage ancestry. We found that this pattern is maintained throughout the colony life cycle, even when only a single caste is being produced. Through controlled crosses, we demonstrate that pure-lineage eggs fail to develop into workers even when interlineage brood are not present. Thus, environmental caste determination in these individuals appears to have been lost in favor of a hardwired genetic mechanism. Our results reveal that genetic control of reproductive fate can persist without loss of the eusocial caste structure.

Autosomal Recessive Posterior Microphthalmos/Nanophthalmos is Caused by Loss-of-function Mutations in LOC646960, a Novel Gene Encoding a Trypsin-like Serine Protease

Purpose: Posterior microphthalmos (MCOP)/nanophthalmos (NNO) is a developmental anomaly characterized by extreme hyperopia due to short axial length. The population of the Faroe Islands shows a high prevalence of an autosomal recessive form (arMCOP). The gene mutated in arMCOP is not yet known.Methods: Genetic mapping by linkage analysis using microsatellite and single nucleotide polymorphisms, mutation analysis by PCR and sequencing, molecular modellingResults: Having refined the position of the disease locus (MCOP6) in an interval of 250 kb in chromosome 2q37.1 in Faroese families, we detected 3 mutations in a novel gene, LOC646960: Patients of 10 different Faroese families were either homozygous (n=22) for c.926G>C (p.Trp309Ser) or compound heterozygous (n=6) for c.926G>C and c.526C>G (p.Arg176Gly), whereas a homozygous 1 bp duplication (c.1066dupC) was identified in patients with arNNO from a Tunisian family. In two unrelated patients with MCOP, no LOC646960 mutation was found. LOC646960 is expressed in the human adult retina and RPE. The expression of the mouse homologue in the eye can be first detected at E17 and is highest in adults. The predicted protein is a 603 amino acid long secreted trypsin-like serine peptidase. c.1066dupC should result in a functional null allele. Molecular modelling of the p.Trp309Ser mutant suggests that both affinity and reactivity of the enzyme towards in vivo substrates are substantially reduced.Conclusions: Postnatal growth of the eye is important for proper development of the refractive components (emmetropization), and is mainly due to elongation of the posterior segment from 10-11 mm at birth to 15-16 mm at the age of 13 years. Optical defocus leads to changes in axial length by moving the retina towards the image plane. arMCOP may theoretically be explained, in line with the expression pattern of LOC646960, by a postnatal growth retardation of the posterior segment.

Audit report on the City of Center Point, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2008

Audit report on the City of Center Point, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2008

Rein et tabac : revue de la littérature et mise au point [Kidney and smoking: literature review and focus].

Smoking remains a major public health problem. It is associated with a considerable number of deaths in the world's population. Smoking is just like high blood pressure, an independent predictor of progression to any primary renal disease and renal transplant patients. It seems that smoking cessation slows the progression of kidney disease in smokers. The literature data are sometimes contradictory about it because of some methodological weaknesses. However, experimental models highlight the harmful effects of tobacco by hemodynamic and non-hemodynamic factors. The conclusion is that a major effort should be further produced by the nephrology community to motivate our patients to stop smoking.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 fitness is a determining factor in viral rebound and set point in chronic infection.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) isolates from 20 chronically infected patients who participated in a structured treatment interruption (STI) trial were studied to determine whether viral fitness influences reestablishment of viremia. Viruses derived from individuals who spontaneously controlled viremia had significantly lower in vitro replication capacities than viruses derived from individuals that did not control viremia after interruption of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and replication capacities correlated with pre-ART and post-STI viral set points. Of note, no clinically relevant improvement of viral loads upon STI occurred. Virus isolates from controlling and noncontrolling patients were indistinguishable in terms of coreceptor usage, genetic subtype, and sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies. In contrast, viruses from controlling patients exhibited increased sensitivity to inhibition by chemokines. Sensitivity to inhibition by RANTES correlated strongly with slower replication kinetics of the virus isolates, suggesting a marked dependency of these virus isolates on high coreceptor densities on the target cells. In summary, our data indicate that viral fitness is a driving factor in determining the magnitude of viral rebound and viral set point in chronic HIV-1 infection, and thus fitness should be considered as a parameter influencing the outcome of therapeutic intervention in chronic infection.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Mise au point et validation d'un fantôme spécifique pour asssurer le suivi des mesures quantitatives en tomographie par émission de positons.

L'index de consommation du glucose, SUV pour standardized uptake value, est largement utilisé en tomographie par émission de positons (TEP) pour quantifier la concentration relative de [18F]2-fluoro-2-désoxy-D-glucose (18F-FDG) dans les tissus. Cependant, cet indice dépend de nombreux facteurs méthodologiques et biologiques et son utilisation fait débat. Il est donc primordial d'instaurer un contrôle qualité régulier permettant d'assurer la stabilité de la mesure des indices quantitatifs. Dans cette optique, un fantôme spécifique avec inserts cylindriques de différentes tailles a été développé. L'objectif de cette étude est de montrer la sensibilité et l'intérêt de ce fantôme. Méthodes. - La sensibilité du fantôme a été étudiée à travers la mesure des SUV et des coefficients de recouvrement (RC). Plusieurs méthodes de mesure ont été utilisées. Les données ont été reconstruites en utilisant les algorithmes de routine clinique. Nous avons étudié la variation des RC en fonction de la taille des cylindres et le changement relatif de fixation, en utilisant des activités différentes. Le fantôme a ensuite été testé sur l'appareil d'un autre centre. Résultats. - Pour toutes les méthodes de mesure, une forte variation des RC avec la taille des cylindres, de l'ordre de 50 %, a été obtenue. Ce fantôme a également permis de mesurer un changement relatif de fixation qui s'est révélé être indépendant de la méthode de mesure. Malgré un étalonnage des deux systèmes TEP/TDM, des différences de quantification d'environ 20 % ont subsisté. Conclusion. - Les résultats obtenus montrent l'intérêt de ce fantôme dans le cadre du suivi des mesures quantitatives.

Loss of the BMP Antagonist, SMOC-1, Causes Ophthalmo-Acromelic (Waardenburg Anophthalmia) Syndrome in Humans and Mice.

Ophthalmo-acromelic syndrome (OAS), also known as Waardenburg Anophthalmia syndrome, is defined by the combination of eye malformations, most commonly bilateral anophthalmia, with post-axial oligosyndactyly. Homozygosity mapping and subsequent targeted mutation analysis of a locus on 14q24.2 identified homozygous mutations in SMOC1 (SPARC-related modular calcium binding 1) in eight unrelated families. Four of these mutations are nonsense, two frame-shift, and two missense. The missense mutations are both in the second Thyroglobulin Type-1 (Tg1) domain of the protein. The orthologous gene in the mouse, Smoc1, shows site- and stage-specific expression during eye, limb, craniofacial, and somite development. We also report a targeted pre-conditional gene-trap mutation of Smoc1 (Smoc1(tm1a)) that reduces mRNA to ∼10% of wild-type levels. This gene-trap results in highly penetrant hindlimb post-axial oligosyndactyly in homozygous mutant animals (Smoc1(tm1a/tm1a)). Eye malformations, most commonly coloboma, and cleft palate occur in a significant proportion of Smoc1(tm1a/tm1a) embryos and pups. Thus partial loss of Smoc-1 results in a convincing phenocopy of the human disease. SMOC-1 is one of the two mammalian paralogs of Drosophila Pentagone, an inhibitor of decapentaplegic. The orthologous gene in Xenopus laevis, Smoc-1, also functions as a Bone Morphogenic Protein (BMP) antagonist in early embryogenesis. Loss of BMP antagonism during mammalian development provides a plausible explanation for both the limb and eye phenotype in humans and mice.