Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Orthogonal gamma-based expansions for volatility option prices under jump-diffusion dynamics

In my work I derive closed-form pricing formulas for volatility based options by suitably approximating the volatility process risk-neutral density function. I exploit and adapt the idea, which stands behind popular techniques already employed in the context of equity options such as Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier expansions, of approximating the underlying process as a sum of some particular polynomials weighted by a kernel, which is typically a Gaussian distribution. I propose instead a Gamma kernel to adapt the methodology to the context of volatility options. VIX vanilla options closed-form pricing formulas are derived and their accuracy is tested for the Heston model (1993) as well as for the jump-diffusion SVJJ model proposed by Duffie et al. (2000).

Modelling, simulation and optimization of maintenance considerations on condition based maintenance

Globalization has increased the pressure on organizations and companies to operate in the most efficient and economic way. This tendency promotes that companies concentrate more and more on their core businesses, outsource less profitable departments and services to reduce costs. By contrast to earlier times, companies are highly specialized and have a low real net output ratio. For being able to provide the consumers with the right products, those companies have to collaborate with other suppliers and form large supply chains. An effect of large supply chains is the deficiency of high stocks and stockholding costs. This fact has lead to the rapid spread of Just-in-Time logistic concepts aimed minimizing stock by simultaneous high availability of products. Those concurring goals, minimizing stock by simultaneous high product availability, claim for high availability of the production systems in the way that an incoming order can immediately processed. Besides of design aspects and the quality of the production system, maintenance has a strong impact on production system availability. In the last decades, there has been many attempts to create maintenance models for availability optimization. Most of them concentrated on the availability aspect only without incorporating further aspects as logistics and profitability of the overall system. However, production system operator’s main intention is to optimize the profitability of the production system and not the availability of the production system. Thus, classic models, limited to represent and optimize maintenance strategies under the light of availability, fail. A novel approach, incorporating all financial impacting processes of and around a production system, is needed. The proposed model is subdivided into three parts, maintenance module, production module and connection module. This subdivision provides easy maintainability and simple extendability. Within those modules, all aspect of production process are modeled. Main part of the work lies in the extended maintenance and failure module that offers a representation of different maintenance strategies but also incorporates the effect of over-maintaining and failed maintenance (maintenance induced failures). Order release and seizing of the production system are modeled in the production part. Due to computational power limitation, it was not possible to run the simulation and the optimization with the fully developed production model. Thus, the production model was reduced to a black-box without higher degree of details.

Effects Of Perceived Financial Accessibility Of Colleges And Universities On Studentsâ¿ Assesment Of Institutional Desirability

This study focused on the effects of socioeconomic exclusivity indicators on college students¿ attitudes toward a hypothetical private liberal arts university. Students enrolled in two undergraduate courses in Education at an elite private liberal arts university in the northeast were randomly presented with one of three versions of an admissions brochure describing a fictitious university. The three versions of the brochure varied in their portrayals of the institution¿s financial exclusivity, ranging from high exclusivity to low exclusivity. Each student was asked to review the brochure and respond to a questionnaire, containing items pertaining to the overall desirability of the institution, as well as its student culture, academic program, campus traditions, and alumni network. Based on Thorstein Veblen¿s theory of the leisure class and Pierre Bourdieu¿s theory of social reproduction, it was hypothesized that students would judge the institution most favorably in all areas under the high exclusivity condition and least favorably under the low exclusivity condition. It was further hypothesized that differences in students¿ ratings of institutional desirability would be mediated by their own financial aid statuses. Results of a two-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) revealed significant (p < .05) interactive effects of institutional exclusivity and student aid status on the perceived desirability of the academic program and campus traditions of the institution. While recipients of need-based financial aid tended to rate more socioeconomically exclusive institutions more favorably on these two variables, those who were not receiving need-based financial aid tended to rate such institutions less favorably. Implications of the findings for student affairs practice are discussed and recommendations for further research are presented.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Implementation of Evidence-Based Practices for Treatment of Alcohol and Drug Disorders: The Role of the State Authority

The current climate of increasing performance expectations and diminishing resources, along with innovations in evidence-based practices (EBPs), creates new dilemmas for substance abuse treatment providers, policymakers, funders, and the service delivery system. This paper describes findings from baseline interviews with representatives from 49 state substance abuse authorities (SSAs). Interviews assessed efforts aimed at facilitating EBP adoption in each state and the District of Columbia. Results suggested that SSAs are concentrating more effort on EBP implementation strategies such as education, training, and infrastructure development, and less effort on financial mechanisms, regulations, and accreditation. The majority of SSAs use EBPs as a criterion in their contracts with providers, and just over half reported that EBP use is tied to state funding. To date, Oregon remains the only state with legislation that mandates treatment expenditures for EBPs; North Carolina follows suit with legislation that requires EBP promotion within current resources.

Between Equity and Empathy: Social Professions and the New Accountability

This article explores the practical and ethical implications of the ‘new accountability’ (working to procedures, targets and standards) based on interviews with British social professionals. Although similar tendencies are present in other European countries, in Britain the rule-bound nature of social work is more intense. Practitioners who regard the ‘new accountability’ positively justify their views with reference to utilitarian and rights-based arguments relating to the promotion of good outcomes, the achievement of equity, respecting the consumer rights of service users and the rights of other stakeholders to information and value for money. Those practitioners who view the new accountability requirements negatively seem to speak in a different ‘moral voice’, which can be linked to more personal and situated approaches to ethics, stressing the importance of particular relationships in context, trust, sensitivity and a sense of ‘vocation’. Both ‘voices’ are part of professional practice, but the new accountability stresses the former at the expense of the latter. For social work to play the critical role identified by Walter Lorenz, maintaining a creative balance between equity and empathy will be important.

The pricing of equity offerings

Examination of 1,600 seasoned equity offerings reveals little evidence that underwriters systematically set offer prices below the market price on the major exchanges, though they may do so for NASDAQ issues. Quick round-trip transactions in seasoned offerings are not profitable, but subscribing to an offering and holding the stock for 30 days seems to be very profitable, especially in the NASDAQ market. In addition to seasoned offerings, we analyze 250 issues of new classes of preferred stock. These issues are not underpriced.

Dynamic SLA management with forecasting using multi-objective optimization

Cost-efficient operation while satisfying performance and availability guarantees in Service Level Agreements (SLAs) is a challenge for Cloud Computing, as these are potentially conflicting objectives. We present a framework for SLA management based on multi-objective optimization. The framework features a forecasting model for determining the best virtual machine-to-host allocation given the need to minimize SLA violations, energy consumption and resource wasting. A comprehensive SLA management solution is proposed that uses event processing for monitoring and enables dynamic provisioning of virtual machines onto the physical infrastructure. We validated our implementation against serveral standard heuristics and were able to show that our approach is significantly better.

Electoral and Financial Bookkeeping: A Comparison of Pre-Electoral Pledges on Public Spending and the Outcome of Post-Electoral Budget Debates

In the wake of the financial crisis, budgetary discipline has taken centre stage in politics. More than ever a country's budget mirrors the true policy preferences of the legislative majority beyond all political discourse and cheap talk. The paper sheds light on mandate fulfilment in the field of public spending and fiscal policy in general. Based on previous work on pledge fulfilment in Switzerland the paper compares publicised pre-electoral statements of MPs on public spending and the development of the public finances with their post-electoral legislative behaviour during budget debates and votes. The findings of the paper confirm the results of the aforementioned earlier studies and point to the potential of budgetary statements for future mandate fulfilment research.

Effectiveness of Justice-Based Measures in Managing Trust and Privacy Concerns on Social Networking Sites: Intercultural Perspective

The unprecedented success of social networking sites (SNSs) has been recently overshadowed by concerns about privacy risks. As SNS users grow weary of privacy breaches and thus develop distrust, they may restrict or even terminate their platform activities. In the long run, these developments endanger SNS platforms’ financial viability and undermine their ability to create individual and social value. By applying a justice perspective, this study aims to understand the means at the disposal of SNS providers to leverage the privacy concerns and trusting beliefs of their users—two important determinants of user participation on SNSs. Considering that SNSs have a global appeal, empirical tests assess the effectiveness of justice measures for three culturally distinct countries: Germany, Russia and Morocco. The results indicate that these measures are particularly suited to address trusting beliefs of SNS audience. Specifically, in all examined countries, procedural justice and the awareness dimension of informational justice improve perceptions of trust in the SNS provider. Privacy concerns, however, are not as easy to manage, because the impact of justice-based measures on privacy concerns is not universal. Beyond theoretical value, this research offers valuable practical insights into the use of justice-based measures to promote trust and mitigate privacy concerns in a cross-cultural setting.

Institutions for sustainable governance of forests: Equity, robustness and cross-level interactions in Mawlyngbna, Meghalaya, India

This study adopts Ostrom’s Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework in empirical fieldwork to explain how local forestry institutions affect forest ecosystems and social equity in the community of Mawlyngbna in North-East India. Data was collected through 26 semi-structured interviews, participatory timeline development, policy documents, direct observation, periodicals, transect walks, and a concurrent forest-ecological study in the village. Results show that Mawlyngbna's forests provide important sources of livelihood benefits for the villagers. However, ecological disturbance and diversity varies among the different forest ownership types and forest-based livelihood benefits are inequitably distributed. Based on a bounded rationality approach, our analysis proposes a set of causal mechanisms that trace these observed social-ecological outcomes to the attributes of the resource system, resource units, actors and governance system. We analyse opportunities and constraints of interactions between the village, regional, and state levels. We discuss how Ostrom’s design principles for community-based resource governance inform the explanation of robustness but have a blind spot in explaining social equity. We report experiences made using the SES framework in empirical fieldwork. We conclude that mapping cross-level interactions in the SES framework needs conceptual refinement and that explaining social equity of forest governance needs theoretical advances.

Atmospheric water parameters measured by a ground-based microwave radiometer and compared with the WRF model

The microwave radiometer TROWARA measures integrated water vapour (IWV) and integrated cloud liquid water (ILW) at Bern since 1994 with a time resolution of 7 s. In this study, we compare TROWARA measurements with a simulation of summer 2012 in Switzerland performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the WRF model agrees very well with TROWARA’s IWV variations with a mean bias of only 0.7 mm. The ILW distribution of the WRF model, although similar in shape to TROWARA’s distribution, overestimates the fraction of clear sky periods (83% compared to 60%).

Incorporation of tissue-based genomic biomarkers into localized prostate cancer clinics.

Localized prostate cancer (PCa) is a clinically heterogeneous disease, which presents with variability in patient outcomes within the same risk stratification (low, intermediate or high) and even within the same Gleason scores. Genomic tools have been developed with the purpose of stratifying patients affected by this disease to help physicians personalize therapies and follow-up schemes. This review focuses on these tissue-based tools. At present, four genomic tools are commercially available: Decipher™, Oncotype DX®, Prolaris® and ProMark®. Decipher™ is a tool based on 22 genes and evaluates the risk of adverse outcomes (metastasis) after radical prostatectomy (RP). Oncotype DX® is based on 17 genes and focuses on the ability to predict outcomes (adverse pathology) in very low-low and low-intermediate PCa patients, while Prolaris® is built on a panel of 46 genes and is validated to evaluate outcomes for patients at low risk as well as patients who are affected by high risk PCa and post-RP. Finally, ProMark® is based on a multiplexed proteomics assay and predicts PCa aggressiveness in patients found with similar features to Oncotype DX®. These biomarkers can be helpful for post-biopsy decision-making in low risk patients and post-radical prostatectomy in selected risk groups. Further studies are needed to investigate the clinical benefit of these new technologies, the financial ramifications and how they should be utilized in clinics.