Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Quality assessment of a landslide inventory map and its application to land‐use planning. A case study in the Northern Apennines (Emilia‐Romagna region, Italy)

Landslide hazard and risk are growing as a consequence of climate change and demographic pressure. Land‐use planning represents a powerful tool to manage this socio‐economic problem and build sustainable and landslide resilient communities. Landslide inventory maps are a cornerstone of land‐use planning and, consequently, their quality assessment represents a burning issue. This work aimed to define the quality parameters of a landslide inventory and assess its spatial and temporal accuracy with regard to its possible applications to land‐use planning. In this sense, I proceeded according to a two‐steps approach. An overall assessment of the accuracy of data geographic positioning was performed on four case study sites located in the Italian Northern Apennines. The quantification of the overall spatial and temporal accuracy, instead, focused on the Dorgola Valley (Province of Reggio Emilia). The assessment of spatial accuracy involved a comparison between remotely sensed and field survey data, as well as an innovative fuzzylike analysis of a multi‐temporal landslide inventory map. Conversely, long‐ and short‐term landslide temporal persistence was appraised over a period of 60 years with the aid of 18 remotely sensed image sets. These results were eventually compared with the current Territorial Plan for Provincial Coordination (PTCP) of the Province of Reggio Emilia. The outcome of this work suggested that geomorphologically detected and mapped landslides are a significant approximation of a more complex reality. In order to convey to the end‐users this intrinsic uncertainty, a new form of cartographic representation is needed. In this sense, a fuzzy raster landslide map may be an option. With regard to land‐use planning, landslide inventory maps, if appropriately updated, confirmed to be essential decision‐support tools. This research, however, proved that their spatial and temporal uncertainty discourages any direct use as zoning maps, especially when zoning itself is associated to statutory or advisory regulations.

Numerical loop calculations with contour deformation

Gegenstand dieser Arbeit ist die nummerische Berechnung von Schleifenintegralen welche in höheren Ordnungen der Störungstheorie auftreten.rnAnalog zur reellen Emission kann man auch in den virtuellen Beiträgen Subtraktionsterme einführen, welche die kollinearen und soften Divergenzen des Schleifenintegrals entfernen. Die Phasenraumintegration und die Schleifenintegration können dann in einer einzigen Monte Carlo Integration durchgeführt werden. In dieser Arbeit zeigen wir wie eine solche numerische Integration unter zu Hilfenahme einer Kontourdeformation durchgeführt werden kann. Ausserdem zeigen wir wie man die benötigeten Integranden mit Rekursionsformeln berechnen kann.

A commutative higher cycle map into Deligne-Beilinson cohomology

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Konstruktion eines Homomorphismus von partiell definierten, graduiert-kommutativen Algebren, der nach Ubergang zu rationalen Kohomologiegruppen mit der Regulatorabbildung reg zwischen motivischer und Deligne-Beilinson Kohomologie übereinstimmt.rnZu Beginn der Arbeit werden verschiedene Komplexe beschrieben, mit denen sich die motivische und die Deligne-Beilinson Kohomologie berechnen lassen.rnIm ersten Kapitel wird der Komplex der höheren Chow Ketten und der Unterkomplex der "alternierenden" Ketten "in guter Lage" eingeführt, die beide die motivische Kohomologie berechnen (letzterer mit rationalen Koeffizienten).rnIn den folgenden beiden Kapiteln werden Komplexe C_D und P_D beschrieben, mit denen sich die (rationale) Deligne-Beilinson Kohomologie berechnen lässt. Diese sind aufgebaut aus sogenannten Strömen, die im zweiten Kapitel eingeführt werden. Verknüpft sind die beiden Komplexe durch eine Auswertungsabbildung ev, die für rationale Koeffizienten zu einem Quasi-Isomorphismus wird. Auf beiden Komplexen lassen sich (Schnitt-)Produkte definieren, von denen jedoch nur das Produkt auf P_D gleichzeitig assoziativ und graduiert-kommutativ ist.rnIm vierten Kapitel wird ganz allgemein für eine Familie von Komplexen, die einer Reihe an Anforderungen genügt, ein (partiell definierter) Homomorphismus (der Regulator) von dem Komplex der höheren Chow Ketten in eben diese Komplexe konstruiert. Die beiden oben genannten Komplexe erfüllen diese Anforderungen und liefern daher Regulatoren reg_C und reg_P

Mongodb tra i database non relazionali - focus su Map-Reduce e gestione della memoria

Panoramica delle caratteristiche dei database NoSQL, con dettaglio su MongoDB: filosofia di progettazione, modello dei dati, indicizzazione, algoritmo Map-Reduce e gestione della memoria.

Metodi di map-matching per l'identificazione degli itinerari dei ciclisti

Negli ultimi anni si è assistito al considerevole aumento della disponibilità di dati GPS e della loro precisione, dovuto alla diffusione e all’evoluzione tecnologica di smartphone e di applicazioni di localizzazione. Il processo di map-matching consiste nell’integrare tali dati - solitamente una lista ordinata di punti, identificati tramite coordinate geografiche ricavate mediante un sistema di localizzazione, come il GPS - con le reti disponibili; nell’ambito dell’ingegneria dei trasporti, l’obiettivo è di identificare il percorso realmente scelto dall’utente per lo spostamento. Il presente lavoro si propone l’obiettivo di studiare alcune metodologie di map-matching per l’identificazione degli itinerari degli utenti, in particolare della mobilità ciclabile. Nel primo capitolo è esposto il funzionamento dei sistemi di posizionamento e in particolare del sistema GPS: ne sono discusse le caratteristiche, la suddivisione nei vari segmenti, gli errori di misurazione e la cartografia di riferimento. Nel secondo capitolo sono presentati i vari aspetti del procedimento di map-matching, le sue principali applicazioni e alcune possibili classificazioni degli algoritmi di map-matching sviluppati in letteratura. Nel terzo capitolo è esposto lo studio eseguito su diversi algoritmi di map-matching, che sono stati testati su un database di spostamenti di ciclisti nell’area urbana di Bologna, registrati tramite i loro smartphone sotto forma di punti GPS, e sulla relativa rete. Si analizzano altresì i risultati ottenuti in un secondo ambiente di testing, predisposto nell’area urbana di Catania, dove sono state registrate in modo analogo alcune tracce di prova, e utilizzata la relativa rete. La comparazione degli algoritmi è eseguita graficamente e attraverso degli indicatori. Vengono inoltre proposti e valutati due algoritmi che forniscono un aggiornamento di quelli analizzati, al fine di migliorarne le prestazioni in termini di accuratezza dei risultati e di costo computazionale.

Three-dimensional electroanatomic entrainment map in atypical atrial flutter late after heart transplantation

Atrial flutter in the donor part of orthotopic heart transplants has been reported and successfully treated by radiofrequency ablation of the cavotricuspid isthmus, but mapping and ablation of atypical flutter circuits may be challenging.(1) Entrainment mapping has been used in combination with activation mapping to define the mechanism of atypical atrial flutter. Here, we report a case where colour-coded three-dimensional (3D) entrainment mapping allowed us to accurately determine and visualize the 3D location of the reentrant circuit and to plan the ablation of a left atrial flutter without the need for activation mapping.

Stability of Contour Augmentation and Esthetic Outcomes of Implant Supported Single Crowns in the Esthetic Zone. 3-Year Results of a Prospective Study With Early Implant Placement Post Extraction

Early implant placement is one of the treatment options after tooth extraction. Implant surgery is performed after a healing period of 4 to 8 weeks and combined with a simultaneous contour augmentation using the guided bone regeneration technique to rebuild stable esthetic facial hard- and soft-tissue contours.

Comparison of non-calibrated pulse-contour analysis with continuous thermodilution for cardiac output assessment in patients with induced hypothermia after cardiac arrest

Induced mild hypothermia after cardiac arrest interferes with clinical assessment of the cardiovascular status of patients. In this situation, non-invasive cardiac output measurement could be useful. Unfortunately, arterial pulse contour is altered by temperature, and the performance of devices using arterial blood pressure contour analysis to derive cardiac output may be insufficient.

Perception of mode, rhythm, and contour in unfamiliar melodies: Effects of age and experience

We explored the ability of older (60-80 years old) and younger (18-23 years old) musicians and nonmusicians to judge the similarity of transposed melodies varying on rhythm, mode, and/or contour (Experiment 1) and to discriminate among melodies differing only in rhythm, mode, or contour (Experiment 2). Similarity ratings did not vary greatly among groups, with tunes differing only by mode being rated as most similar. In the same/different discrimination task, musicians performed better than nonmusicians, but we found no age differences. We also found that discrimination of major from minor tunes was difficult for everyone, even for musicians. Mode is apparently a subtle dimension in music, despite its deliberate use in composition and despite people's ability to label minor as "sad" and major as "happy."

Combined bone and soft-tissue augmentation surgery in temporo-orbital contour reconstruction

Temporal hollowing due to temporal muscle atrophy after standard skull base surgery is common. Various techniques have been previously described to correct the disfiguring defect. Most often reconstruction is performed using freehand molded polymethylmethacrylate cement. This method and material are insufficient in terms of aesthetic results and implant characteristics. We herein propose reconstruction of such defects with a polyetheretherketone (PEEK)-based patient-specific implant (PSI) including soft-tissue augmentation to preserve normal facial topography. We describe a patient who presented with a large temporo-orbital hemangioma that had been repaired with polymethylmethacrylate 25 years earlier. Because of a toxic skin atrophy fistula, followed by infection and meningitis, this initial implant had to be removed. The large, disfiguring temporo-orbital defect was reconstructed with a PEEK-based PSI. The lateral orbital wall and the temporal muscle atrophy were augmented with computer-aided design and surface modeling techniques. The operative procedure to implant and adopt the reconstructed PEEK-based PSI was simple, and an excellent cosmetic outcome was achieved. The postoperative clinical course was uneventful over a 5-year follow-up period. Polyetheretherketone-based combined bony and soft contour remodeling is a feasible and effective method for cranioplasty including combined bone and soft-tissue reconstruction of temporo-orbital defects. Manual reconstruction of this cosmetically delicate area carries an exceptional risk of disfiguring results. Augmentation surgery in this anatomic location needs accurate PSIs to achieve satisfactory cosmetic results. The cosmetic outcome achieved in this case is superior compared with previously reported techniques.