The effect of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) on Ashes series results in Australia

An analysis of the results of those "Ashes" cricket test matches between England and Australia which are played in Australia suggests a correlation between these results and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. In those years with a positive ENSO, results favour Australia, whereas in those years with a negative ENSO, results are more even. A potential mechanism is presented for this apparent correlation.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Ordering on multiple lengthscales in a series of side group liquid crystal block copolymers containing a cholesteryl-based mesogen

Hierarchical ordering in a side group liquid crystal block copolymer is investigated by differential scanning calorimetry, polarized optical microscopy, small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). A series of block copolymers with a range of compositions was prepared by atom transfer radical polymerization, comprising a polystyrene block and a poly(methyl methacrylate) block bearing chiral cholesteryl mesogens. Smectic ordering is observed as well as microphase separation of the block copolymer. Lamellar structures were observed for far larger volume fractions than for coil-coil copolymers (up to a volume fraction of liquid crystal block, f(LC) = 0.8). A sample with f(LC) = 0.86 exhibited a hexagonal-packed cylinder morphology, as confirmed by SAXS and TEM. The matrix comprised the liquid crystal block, with the mesogens forming smectic layers. For the liquid crystal homopolymer and samples with high f(LC), a smectic-smectic phase transition was observed below the clearing point. At low temperature, the smectic phase comprises coexisting domains with monolayer S-A,S-1 coexisting with interdigitated S-A,S-d domains. At high temperature a SA,1 phase is observed. This is the only structure observed for samples with lower f(LC). These unprecedented results point to the influence of block copolymer microphase separation on the smectic ordering.

Enhancing dominant modes in nonstationary time series by means of the symbolic resonance analysis

We present the symbolic resonance analysis (SRA) as a viable method for addressing the problem of enhancing a weakly dominant mode in a mixture of impulse responses obtained from a nonlinear dynamical system. We demonstrate this using results from a numerical simulation with Duffing oscillators in different domains of their parameter space, and by analyzing event-related brain potentials (ERPs) from a language processing experiment in German as a representative application. In this paradigm, the averaged ERPs exhibit an N400 followed by a sentence final negativity. Contemporary sentence processing models predict a late positivity (P600) as well. We show that the SRA is able to unveil the P600 evoked by the critical stimuli as a weakly dominant mode from the covering sentence final negativity. (c) 2007 American Institute of Physics. (c) 2007 American Institute of Physics.

Electronic transitions and bonding properties in a series of five-coordinate “16-electron” complexes [Mn(CO)3(L2)]− (L2=chelating redox-active π-donor ligand)

In this article we present for the first time accurate density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent (TD) DFT data for a series of electronically unsaturated five-coordinate complexes [Mn(CO)(3)(L-2)](-), where L-2 stands for a chelating strong pi-donor ligand represented by catecholate, dithiolate, amidothiolate, reduced alpha-diimine (1,4-dialkyl-1,4-diazabutadiene (R-DAB), 2,2'-bipyridine) and reduced 2,2'-biphosphinine types. The single-crystal X-ray structure of the unusual compound [Na(BPY)][Mn(CO)(3)(BPY)]center dot Et2O and the electronic absorption spectrum of the anion [Mn(CO)(3)(BPY)](-) are new in the literature. The nature of the bidentate ligand determines the bonding in the complexes, which varies between two limiting forms: from completely pi-delocalized diamagnetic {(CO)(3)Mn-L-2}(-) for L-2 = alpha-diimine or biphosphinine, to largely valence-trapped {(CO)(3)Mn-1-L-2(2-)}(-) for L-2(2-) = catecholate, where the formal oxidation states of Mn and L-2 can be assigned. The variable degree of the pi-delocalization in the Mn(L-2) chelate ring is indicated by experimental resonance Raman spectra of [Mn(CO)(3)(L-2)](-) (L-2=3,5-di-tBu-catecholate and iPr-DAB), where accurate assignments of the diagnostically important Raman bands have been aided by vibrational analysis. The L-2 = catecholate type of complexes is known to react with Lewis bases (CO substitution, formation of six-coordinate adducts) while the strongly pi-delocalized complexes are inert. The five-coordinate complexes adopt usually a distorted square pyramidal geometry in the solid state, even though transitions to a trigonal bipyramid are also not rare. The experimental structural data and the corresponding DFT-computed values of bond lengths and angles are in a very good agreement. TD-DFT calculations of electronic absorption spectra of the studied Mn complexes and the strongly pi-delocalized reference compound [Fe(CO)(3)(Me-DAB)] have reproduced qualitatively well the experimental spectra. Analyses of the computed electronic transitions in the visible spectroscopic region show that the lowest-energy absorption band always contains a dominant (in some cases almost exclusive) contribution from a pi(HOMO) -> pi*(LUMO) transition within the MnL2 metallacycle. The character of this optical excitation depends strongly on the composition of the frontier orbitals, varying from a partial L-2 -> Mn charge transfer (LMCT) through a fully delocalized pi(MnL2) -> pi*(MnL2) situation to a mixed (CO)Mn -> L-2 charge transfer (LLCT/MLCT). The latter character is most apparent in the case of the reference complex [Fe(CO)(3)(Me-DAB)]. The higher-lying, usually strongly mixed electronic transitions in the visible absorption region originate in the three lower-lying occupied orbitals, HOMO - 1 to HOMO - 3, with significant metal-d contributions. Assignment of these optical excitations to electronic transitions of a specific type is difficult. A partial LLCT/MLCT character is encountered most frequently. The electronic absorption spectra become more complex when the chelating ligand L-2, such as 2,2'-bipyridine, features two or more closely spaced low-lying empty pi* orbitals.

Electronic properties of 4,4 ',5,5 '-tetramethyl-2,2 '-biphosphinine (tmbp) in the redox series fac-[Mn(Br)(CO)(3)(tmbp)], [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](2), and [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](-): crystallographic, spectroelectrochemical, and DFT computational study

Stepwise electrochemical reduction of the complex fac-[Mn(Br)(CO)(3)(tmbp)] (tmbp = 4,4',5,5'-tetramethyl-2,2'-biphosphinine) produces the dimer [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](2) and the five-coordinate anion [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](-). All three members of the redox series have been characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The crystallographic data provide valuable insight into the localization of the added electrons on the (carbonyl)manganese and tmbp centers. In particular, the formulation of the two-electron-reduced anion as [Mn-0(CO)(3)(tmbp(-))](-) also agrees with the analysis of its IR nu(CO) wavenumbers and with the results of density functional theoretical (DFT) MO calculations on this compound. The strongly delocalized pi-bonding in the anion stabilizes its five-coordinate geometry and results in the appearance of several mixed Mn-to-tmbp charge-transfer/IL(tmbp) transitions in the near-UV-vis spectral region. A thorough voltammetric and UV-vis/IR spectroelectrochemical study of the reduction path provided evidence for a direct formation of [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](-) via a two-electron ECE mechanism involving the [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](.) radical transient. At ambient temperature [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](-) reacts rapidly with nonreduced fac-[Mn(Br)(CO)(3)(tmbp)] to produce [Mn(CO)(3)(tmbp)](2). Comparison with the analogous 2,2'-bipyridine complexes has revealed striking similarity in the bonding properties and reactivity, despite the stronger pi-acceptor character of the tmbp ligand.