Climate Change and Health: A platform for action

This paper provides an introduction to the links between climate change and health and aims to inform policy-makers, politicians and the public of the benefits for health from reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)* emissions from food production, transport, energy, and waste. It also highlights the importance of action by the health sector.It presents a platform for action which demonstrates that creating healthy sustainable places and communities can go hand in hand with reducing the negative impacts of climate change.

IPH Submission to Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Climate Change Response Bill 2010

The main purpose of the Clmate Change Bill is to provide for the adoption of a national policy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; to support this through the making of mitigation and adaptation action plans; and to make provision for emission reduction targets to support the objective of transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy.The remit of the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is to promote cooperation for public health between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the areas of research and information, capacity building and policy advice. Our approach is to support Departments of Health and their agencies in both jurisdictions, and maximise the benefits of all-island cooperation to achieve practical benefits for people in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.IPH has a keen interest in the effects of climate change on health. In September 2010 the IPH published a paper – Climate Change and Health: A platform for action - to inform policy-makers and the public about the health benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper followed a seminar with international speakers, opened by Minister Gormley, on the same topic in February 2010. 

Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains) was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

Groundwater dating and past climate reconstruction

In the past decade aquifers have increasingly become palaeoclimatic archives in their own right alongside ice cores, sediments and other proxy records. The main tool for this task has been the noble gas palaeo-thermometer in combination with quantitative groundwater dating using radionuclides. Noblegas radionuclides play a unique role as tracers in environmental studies due to their chemical inertness and low concentration making them ideal tracers. The same properties on the other hand make them difficult to measure on natural concentration levels. Therefore for decades low level counting (LLC) was the only method for detecting radioisotopes of argon and krypton at an atmospheric level. In recent times and with the increase of interest and potential applications the analytical efforts with novel detection methods have been intensified. In the talk noble gas groundwater dating techniques over times scales from decades to millions of years are discussed in relation to noble gas palaeo records at different locations in Europe and elsewhere.

Comparison between computational alanine scanning and per-residue binding free energy decomposition for protein-protein association using MM-GBSA: application to the TCR-p-MHC complex.

Recognition by the T-cell receptor (TCR) of immunogenic peptides (p) presented by Class I major histocompatibility complexes (MHC) is the key event in the immune response against virus-infected cells or tumor cells. A study of the 2C TCR/SIYR/H-2K(b) system using a computational alanine scanning and a much faster binding free energy decomposition based on the Molecular Mechanics-Generalized Born Surface Area (MM-GBSA) method is presented. The results show that the TCR-p-MHC binding free energy decomposition using this approach and including entropic terms provides a detailed and reliable description of the interactions between the molecules at an atomistic level. Comparison of the decomposition results with experimentally determined activity differences for alanine mutants yields a correlation of 0.67 when the entropy is neglected and 0.72 when the entropy is taken into account. Similarly, comparison of experimental activities with variations in binding free energies determined by computational alanine scanning yields correlations of 0.72 and 0.74 when the entropy is neglected or taken into account, respectively. Some key interactions for the TCR-p-MHC binding are analyzed and some possible side chains replacements are proposed in the context of TCR protein engineering. In addition, a comparison of the two theoretical approaches for estimating the role of each side chain in the complexation is given, and a new ad hoc approach to decompose the vibrational entropy term into atomic contributions, the linear decomposition of the vibrational entropy (LDVE), is introduced. The latter allows the rapid calculation of the entropic contribution of interesting side chains to the binding. This new method is based on the idea that the most important contributions to the vibrational entropy of a molecule originate from residues that contribute most to the vibrational amplitude of the normal modes. The LDVE approach is shown to provide results very similar to those of the exact but highly computationally demanding method.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

A new electrophysiological index for working memory load in humans.

Working memory, the ability to store and simultaneously manipulate information, is affected in several neuropsychiatric disorders which lead to severe cognitive and functional deficits. An electrophysiological marker for this process could help identify early cerebral function abnormalities. In subjects performing working memory-specific n-back tasks, event-related potential analysis revealed a positive-negative waveform (PNwm) component modulated in amplitude by working memory load. It occurs in the expected time range for this process, 140-280 ms after stimulus onset, superimposed on the classical P200 and N200 components. Independent Component Analysis extracted two functional components with latencies and topographical scalp distributions similar to the PNwm. Our results imply that the PNwm represents a new electrophysiological index for working memory load in humans.

Metabolic effects of diets differing in glycaemic index depend on age and endogenous glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide in mice.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: High- vs low-glycaemic index (GI) diets unfavourably affect body fat mass and metabolic markers in rodents. Different effects of these diets could be age-dependent, as well as mediated, in part, by carbohydrate-induced stimulation of glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide (GIP) signalling. METHODS: Young-adult (16 weeks) and aged (44 weeks) male wild-type (C57BL/6J) and GIP-receptor knockout (Gipr ( -/- )) mice were exposed to otherwise identical high-carbohydrate diets differing only in GI (20-26 weeks of intervention, n = 8-10 per group). Diet-induced changes in body fat distribution, liver fat, locomotor activity, markers of insulin sensitivity and substrate oxidation were investigated, as well as changes in the gene expression of anorexigenic and orexigenic hypothalamic factors related to food intake. RESULTS: Body weight significantly increased in young-adult high- vs low-GI fed mice (two-way ANOVA, p < 0.001), regardless of the Gipr genotype. The high-GI diet in young-adult mice also led to significantly increased fat mass and changes in metabolic markers that indicate reduced insulin sensitivity. Even though body fat mass also slightly increased in high- vs low-GI fed aged wild-type mice (p < 0.05), there were no significant changes in body weight and estimated insulin sensitivity in these animals. However, aged Gipr ( -/- ) vs wild-type mice on high-GI diet showed significantly lower cumulative net energy intake, increased locomotor activity and improved markers of insulin sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The metabolic benefits of a low-GI diet appear to be more pronounced in younger animals, regardless of the Gipr genotype. Inactivation of GIP signalling in aged animals on a high-GI diet, however, could be beneficial.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Environmental effects of Deccan volcanism across the Cretaceous-Tertiary transition in Meghalaya, India

The Urn Sohryngkew section of Meghalaya, NE India, located 800-1000 km from the Deccan volcanic province, is one of the most complete Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) transitions worldwide with all defining and supporting criteria present: mass extinction of planktic foraminifera, first appearance of Danian species, delta(13)C shift, Ir anomaly (12 ppb) and KTB red layer. The geochemical signature of the KTB layer indicates not only an extraterrestrial signal (Ni and all Platinum Group Elements (PGEs)) of a second impact that postdates Chicxulub, but also a significant component resulting from condensed sedimentation (P), redox fluctuations (As, Co, Fe, Pb, Zn, and to a lesser extent Ni and Cu) and volcanism. From the late Maastrichtian C29r into the early Danian, a humid climate prevailed (kaolinite: 40-60%, detrital minerals: 50-80%). During the latest Maastrichtian, periodic acid rains (carbonate dissolution; CIA index: 70-80) associated with pulsed Deccan eruptions and strong continental weathering resulted in mesotrophic waters. The resulting super-stressed environmental conditions led to the demise of nearly all planktic foraminiferal species and blooms (>95%) of the disaster opportunist Guembelitria cretacea. These data reveal that detrimental marine conditions prevailed surrounding the Deccan volcanic province during the main phase of eruptions in C29r below the KTB. Ultimately these environmental conditions led to regionally early extinctions followed by global extinctions at the KTB. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

North South Survey of Children's Height, Weight and Body Mass Index, 2002.

North South Survey of Children’s Height, Weight and Body Mass Index, 2002. As part of a North South Survey of Childrenâ?Ts Oral Health conducted in Ireland in 2001/â?T02 [1], the heights and weights of a representative sample of children and adolescents age 4-16 years was measured. Data were collected by 34 teams of trained and calibrated dentists and dental nurses for 17,518 children aged 4-16 in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) and 2,099 in Northern Ireland (NI). Click here to download PDF 379kb