Outsourcing and offshoring engineering projects:understanding the value, sourcing models, and coordination practices

In this paper, we review recent developments in the field of outsourcing and offshoring and the implications for engineering management. We examine three aspects involved in outsourcing and offshoring, namely, sourcing models, coordination, and value extracted from outsourcing projects. We conclude that additional research is needed on recent trends in outsourcing and the impact of such change process on the practice of engineering management. © 2011 IEEE.

Partnering with governments and other institutions:driving change in diabetes care

The human and material cost of type 2 diabetes is a cause of increasing concern for health professionals, representative organisations and governments worldwide. The scale of morbidity and mortality has led the United Nations to issue a resolution on diabetes, calling for national policies for prevention, treatment and care. There is clearly an urgent need for a concerted response from all interested parties at the community, national and international level to work towards the goals of the resolution and create effective, sustainable treatment models, care systems and prevention strategies. Action requires both a 'bottom-up' approach of public awareness campaigns and pressure from healthcare professionals, coupled with a 'top-down' drive for change, via partnerships with governments, third sector (non-governmental) organisations and other institutions. In this review, we examine how existing collaborative initiatives serve as examples for those seeking to implement change in health policy and practice in the quest to alleviate the health and economic burden of diabetes. Efforts are underway to provide continuous and comprehensive care models for those who already have type 2 diabetes; in some cases, national plans extend to prevention strategies in attempts to improve overall public health. In the spirit of partnership, collaborations with governments that incorporate sustainability, long-term goals and a holistic approach continue to be a driving force for change. It is now critical to maintain this momentum and use the growing body of compelling evidence to educate, inform and deliver a long-term, lasting impact on patient and public health worldwide. © 2007 The Authors.

Modeling the fiscal impacts caused by climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of scenarios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability.

The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) using 36 parameters of REMO regional climate data-set, ArcGIS geographic information software, and periods of 1961-1990 (reference period), 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. The disadvantages of this relatively simple climate envelope modeling (CEM) approach are then discussed and several ways of model improvement are suggested. Some statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression, cluster analysis and other clustering methods, decision tree, evolutionary algorithm, artificial neural network) are able to provide development of the model. Among them artificial neural networks (ANN) seems to be the most suitable algorithm for this purpose, which provides a black box method for distribution modeling.

Trends in research on the possible effects of climate change concerning aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the modelling approach

Knowledge on the expected effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is defined by three ways. On the one hand, long-term observation in the field serves as a basis for the possible changes; on the other hand, the experimental approach may bring valuable pieces of information to the research field. The expected effects of climate change cannot be studied by empirical approach; rather mathematical models are useful tools for this purpose. Within this study, the main findings of field observations and their implications for future were summarized; moreover, the modelling approaches were discussed in a more detailed way. Some models try to describe the variation of physical parameters in a given aquatic habitat, thus our knowledge on their biota is confined to the findings based on our present observations. Others are destined for answering special issues related to the given water body. Complex ecosystem models are the keys of our better understanding of the possible effects of climate change. Basically, these models were not created for testing the influence of global warming, rather focused on the description of a complex system (e. g. a lake) involving environmental variables, nutrients. However, such models are capable of studying climatic changes as well by taking into consideration a large set of environmental variables. Mostly, the outputs are consistent with the assumptions based on the findings in the field. Since synthetized models are rather difficult to handle and require quite large series of data, the authors proposed a more simple modelling approach, which is capable of examining the effects of global warming. This approach includes weather dependent simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of aquatic organisms within a simplified framework.

Növelhető-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képessége az új klasszifikációs módszerek nélkül? (Can the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models be increased without new classification methods?)

A Bázel–2. tőkeegyezmény bevezetését követően a bankok és hitelintézetek Magyarországon is megkezdték saját belső minősítő rendszereik felépítését, melyek karbantartása és fejlesztése folyamatos feladat. A szerző arra a kérdésre keres választ, hogy lehetséges-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képességét növelni a hagyományos matematikai-statisztikai módszerek alkalmazásával oly módon, hogy a modellekbe a pénzügyi mutatószámok időbeli változásának mértékét is beépítjük. Az empirikus kutatási eredmények arra engednek következtetni, hogy a hazai vállalkozások pénzügyi mutatószámainak időbeli alakulása fontos információt hordoz a vállalkozás jövőbeli fizetőképességéről, mivel azok felhasználása jelentősen növeli a csődmodellek előre jelző képességét. A szerző azt is megvizsgálja, hogy javítja-e a megfigyelések szélsőségesen magas vagy alacsony értékeinek modellezés előtti korrekciója a modellek klasszifikációs teljesítményét. ______ Banks and lenders in Hungary also began, after the introduction of the Basel 2 capital agreement, to build up their internal rating systems, whose maintenance and development are a continuing task. The author explores whether it is possible to increase the predictive capacity of business-failure forecasting models by traditional mathematical-cum-statistical means in such a way that they incorporate the measure of change in the financial indicators over time. Empirical findings suggest that the temporal development of the financial indicators of firms in Hungary carries important information about future ability to pay, since the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models is greatly increased by using such indicators. The author also examines whether the classification performance of the models can be improved by correcting for extremely high or low values before modelling.

Public price of climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of sce-narios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability.

Changing visual value of deciduous species in the climate change

The article deals with the changing visual value of deciduous species. Due to climate change, the climatic patterns found on the plants’ growing area may change. Therefore, foliage of deciduous trees changes itscolor in the fall season witha different timing and intensity. This shift can modify the functional, ornamental and ecological value of these plants in the fall season, which is of special interest in the context of landscape design. However, this effect of climate change hasn’t been examined in terms of landscape architecture yet.In the article we are looking for deciduous species that can be appropriate subjectsforresearch, we are giving suggestions for choosing the right location for a future research and proposing available resources of satellite images, that can provide the basis for evaluation of leaf coloring. We also review already existing methods for calculating the degree of fall leaf coloring.We propose a novel method of satellite image processing to evaluate the coloring of a stand. Leaf Coloring Index (LCI) shows the leaf color’s relation to the color realms. LCI is appropriate for setting up a phenological model based onclimate data in a future research. Based on future climate models, the change of the examined stand’s visual value can be predicted. The results might affect the future use of plant species in landscape architecture.

Az autóipar szerkezeti átrendeződése – Vállalati stratégiák és a válság hatásai (Structural change in the automotive industry – corporate strategies and the impact of the crisis)

Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.

High frequency electric machine models for the evaluation of operational impacts in integrated drives

A high frequency physical phase variable electric machine model was developed using FE analysis. The model was implemented in a machine drive environment with hardware-in-the-loop. The novelty of the proposed model is that it is derived based on the actual geometrical and other physical information of the motor, considering each individual turn in the winding. This is the first attempt to develop such a model to obtain high frequency machine parameters without resorting to expensive experimental procedures currently in use. The model was used in a dynamic simulation environment to predict inverter-motor interaction. This includes motor terminal overvoltage, current spikes, as well as switching effects. In addition, a complete drive model was developed for electromagnetic interference (EMI) analysis and evaluation. This consists of the lumped parameter models of different system components, such as cable, inverter, and motor. The lumped parameter models enable faster simulations. The results obtained were verified by experimental measurements and excellent agreements were obtained. A change in the winding arrangement and its influence on the motor high frequency behavior has also been investigated. This was shown to have a little effect on the parameter values and in the motor high frequency behavior for equal number of turns. An accurate prediction of overvoltage and EMI in the design stages of the drive system would reduce the time required for the design modifications as well as for the evaluation of EMC compliance issues. The model can be utilized in the design optimization and insulation selection for motors. Use of this procedure could prove economical, as it would help designers develop and test new motor designs for the evaluation of operational impacts in various motor drive applications.

An investigation of multiple pathways of developmental intervention change

Convergence among treatment, prevention, and developmental intervention approaches has led to the recognition of the need for evaluation models and research designs that employ a full range of evaluation information to provide an empirical basis for enhancing the efficiency, efficacy, and effectiveness of prevention and positive development interventions. This study reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools. This study used a Relational Data Analysis integration of quantitative and qualitative data analysis strategies, including the use of both fixed and free response measures and a structural equation modeling approach, to construct and evaluate the hypothesized OMC model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 6.991, p = .43; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .459). Findings also provided preliminary evidence consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes. Furthermore, the general pattern of findings suggested the need to use methods capable of capturing both quantitative and qualitative change in order to increase the likelihood of identifying more complete theory informed empirically supported models of developmental intervention change processes.

Distribution of Diatoms and Development of Diatom-Based Models for Inferring Salinity and Nutrient Concentrations in Florida Bay and Adjacent Coastal Wetlands of South Florida (USA)

The composition and distribution of diatom algae inhabiting estuaries and coasts of the subtropical Americas are poorly documented, especially relative to the central role diatoms play in coastal food webs and to their potential utility as sentinels of environmental change in these threatened ecosystems. Here, we document the distribution of diatoms among the diverse habitat types and long environmental gradients represented by the shallow topographic relief of the South Florida, USA, coastline. A total of 592 species were encountered from 38 freshwater, mangrove, and marine locations in the Everglades wetland and Florida Bay during two seasonal collections, with the highest diversity occurring at sites of high salinity and low water column organic carbon concentration (WTOC). Freshwater, mangrove, and estuarine assemblages were compositionally distinct, but seasonal differences were only detected in mangrove and estuarine sites where solute concentration differed greatly between wet and dry seasons. Epiphytic, planktonic, and sediment assemblages were compositionally similar, implying a high degree of mixing along the shallow, tidal, and storm-prone coast. The relationships between diatom taxa and salinity, water total phosphorus (WTP), water total nitrogen (WTN), and WTOC concentrations were determined and incorporated into weighted averaging partial least squares regression models. Salinity was the most influential variable, resulting in a highly predictive model (r apparent 2  = 0.97, r jackknife 2  = 0.95) that can be used in the future to infer changes in coastal freshwater delivery or sea-level rise in South Florida and compositionally similar environments. Models predicting WTN (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.46), WTP (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.49), and WTOC (r apparent 2  = 0.79, r jackknife 2  = 0.57) were also strong, suggesting that diatoms can provide reliable inferences of changes in solute delivery to the coastal ecosystem.

Diatom-based Models for Inferring Hydrology and Periphyton Abundance in a Subtropical Karstic Wetland: Implications for Ecosystem-Scale Bioassessment

We developed diatom-based prediction models of hydrology and periphyton abundance to inform assessment tools for a hydrologically managed wetland. Because hydrology is an important driver of ecosystem change, hydrologic alterations by restoration efforts could modify biological responses, such as periphyton characteristics. In karstic wetlands, diatoms are particularly important components of mat-forming calcareous periphyton assemblages that both respond and contribute to the structural organization and function of the periphyton matrix. We examined the distribution of diatoms across the Florida Everglades landscape and found hydroperiod and periphyton biovolume were strongly correlated with assemblage composition. We present species optima and tolerances for hydroperiod and periphyton biovolume, for use in interpreting the directionality of change in these important variables. Predictions of these variables were mapped to visualize landscape-scale spatial patterns in a dominant driver of change in this ecosystem (hydroperiod) and an ecosystem-level response metric of hydrologic change (periphyton biovolume). Specific diatom assemblages inhabiting periphyton mats of differing abundance can be used to infer past conditions and inform management decisions based on how assemblages are changing. This study captures diatom responses to wide gradients of hydrology and periphyton characteristics to inform ecosystem-scale bioassessment efforts in a large wetland.

Learning Data-Driven Models of Non-Verbal Behaviors for Building Rapport Using an Intelligent Virtual Agent

There is a growing societal need to address the increasing prevalence of behavioral health issues, such as obesity, alcohol or drug use, and general lack of treatment adherence for a variety of health problems. The statistics, worldwide and in the USA, are daunting. Excessive alcohol use is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States (with 79,000 deaths annually), and is responsible for a wide range of health and social problems. On the positive side though, these behavioral health issues (and associated possible diseases) can often be prevented with relatively simple lifestyle changes, such as losing weight with a diet and/or physical exercise, or learning how to reduce alcohol consumption. Medicine has therefore started to move toward finding ways of preventively promoting wellness, rather than solely treating already established illness. Evidence-based patient-centered Brief Motivational Interviewing (BMI) interven- tions have been found particularly effective in helping people find intrinsic motivation to change problem behaviors after short counseling sessions, and to maintain healthy lifestyles over the long-term. Lack of locally available personnel well-trained in BMI, however, often limits access to successful interventions for people in need. To fill this accessibility gap, Computer-Based Interventions (CBIs) have started to emerge. Success of the CBIs, however, critically relies on insuring engagement and retention of CBI users so that they remain motivated to use these systems and come back to use them over the long term as necessary. Because of their text-only interfaces, current CBIs can therefore only express limited empathy and rapport, which are the most important factors of health interventions. Fortunately, in the last decade, computer science research has progressed in the design of simulated human characters with anthropomorphic communicative abilities. Virtual characters interact using humans’ innate communication modalities, such as facial expressions, body language, speech, and natural language understanding. By advancing research in Artificial Intelligence (AI), we can improve the ability of artificial agents to help us solve CBI problems. To facilitate successful communication and social interaction between artificial agents and human partners, it is essential that aspects of human social behavior, especially empathy and rapport, be considered when designing human-computer interfaces. Hence, the goal of the present dissertation is to provide a computational model of rapport to enhance an artificial agent’s social behavior, and to provide an experimental tool for the psychological theories shaping the model. Parts of this thesis were already published in [LYL+12, AYL12, AL13, ALYR13, LAYR13, YALR13, ALY14].