Determining the number of clusters in categorical data

Cluster analysis for categorical data has been an active area of research. A well-known problem in this area is the determination of the number of clusters, which is unknown and must be inferred from the data. In order to estimate the number of clusters, one often resorts to information criteria, such as BIC (Bayesian information criterion), MML (minimum message length, proposed by Wallace and Boulton, 1968), and ICL (integrated classification likelihood). In this work, we adopt the approach developed by Figueiredo and Jain (2002) for clustering continuous data. They use an MML criterion to select the number of clusters and a variant of the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters. This EM variant seamlessly integrates model estimation and selection in a single algorithm. For clustering categorical data, we assume a finite mixture of multinomial distributions and implement a new EM algorithm, following a previous version (Silvestre et al., 2008). Results obtained with synthetic datasets are encouraging. The main advantage of the proposed approach, when compared to the above referred criteria, is the speed of execution, which is especially relevant when dealing with large data sets.

Clustering and selecting categorical features

In data clustering, the problem of selecting the subset of most relevant features from the data has been an active research topic. Feature selection for clustering is a challenging task due to the absence of class labels for guiding the search for relevant features. Most methods proposed for this goal are focused on numerical data. In this work, we propose an approach for clustering and selecting categorical features simultaneously. We assume that the data originate from a finite mixture of multinomial distributions and implement an integrated expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm that estimates all the parameters of the model and selects the subset of relevant features simultaneously. The results obtained on synthetic data illustrate the performance of the proposed approach. An application to real data, referred to official statistics, shows its usefulness.

PAH air pollution at a Portuguese urban area: carcinogenic risks and sources identification

This study aimed to characterize air pollution and the associated carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) at an urban site, to identify possible emission sources of PAHs using several statistical methodologies, and to analyze the influence of other air pollutants and meteorological variables on PAH concentrations.The air quality and meteorological data were collected in Oporto, the second largest city of Portugal. Eighteen PAHs (the 16 PAHs considered by United States Environment Protection Agency (USEPA) as priority pollutants, dibenzo[a,l]pyrene, and benzo[j]fluoranthene) were collected daily for 24 h in air (gas phase and in particles) during 40 consecutive days in November and December 2008 by constant low-flow samplers and using polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) membrane filters for particulate (PM10 and PM2.5 bound) PAHs and pre-cleaned polyurethane foam plugs for gaseous compounds. The other monitored air pollutants were SO2, PM10, NO2, CO, and O3; the meteorological variables were temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, total precipitation, and solar radiation. Benzo[a]pyrene reached a mean concentration of 2.02 ngm−3, surpassing the EU annual limit value. The target carcinogenic risks were equal than the health-based guideline level set by USEPA (10−6) at the studied site, with the cancer risks of eight PAHs reaching senior levels of 9.98×10−7 in PM10 and 1.06×10−6 in air. The applied statistical methods, correlation matrix, cluster analysis, and principal component analysis, were in agreement in the grouping of the PAHs. The groups were formed according to their chemical structure (number of rings), phase distribution, and emission sources. PAH diagnostic ratios were also calculated to evaluate the main emission sources. Diesel vehicular emissions were the major source of PAHs at the studied site. Besides that source, emissions from residential heating and oil refinery were identified to contribute to PAH levels at the respective area. Additionally, principal component regression indicated that SO2, NO2, PM10, CO, and solar radiation had positive correlation with PAHs concentrations, while O3, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were negatively correlated.

A imagem feminina: os apelos na publicidade dirigida ao público infantil

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

Dentistry and HIV/AIDS related stigma

OBJECTIVE To analyze HIV/AIDS positive individual’s perception and attitudes regarding dental services.METHODS One hundred and thirty-four subjects (30.0% of women and 70.0% of men) from Nuevo León, Mexico, took part in the study (2014). They filled out structured, analytical, self-administered, anonymous questionnaires. Besides the sociodemographic variables, the perception regarding public and private dental services and related professionals was evaluated, as well as the perceived stigma associated with HIV/AIDS, through a Likert-type scale. The statistical evaluation included a factorial and a non-hierarchical cluster analysis.RESULTS Social inequalities were found regarding the search for public and private dental professionals and services. Most subjects reported omitting their HIV serodiagnosis and agreed that dentists must be trained and qualified to treat patients with HIV/AIDS. The factorial analysis revealed two elements: experiences of stigma and discrimination in dental appointments and feelings of concern regarding the attitudes of professionals or their teams concerning patients’ HIV serodiagnosis. The cluster analysis identified three groups: users who have not experienced stigma or discrimination (85.0%); the ones who have not had those experiences, but feel somewhat concerned (12.7%); and the ones who underwent stigma and discrimination and feel concerned (2.3%).CONCLUSIONS We observed a low percentage of stigma and discrimination in dental appointments; however, most HIV/AIDS patients do not reveal their serodiagnosis to dentists out of fear of being rejected. Such fact implies a workplace hazard to dental professionals, but especially to the very own health of HIV/AIDS patients, as dentists will not be able to provide them a proper clinical and pharmaceutical treatment.

Enhancing the selection of a model-based clustering with external categorical variables

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which are not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering context to select a number of clusters which both fits the data well and takes advantage of the potential illustrative ability of the external variables. This approach makes use of the integrated joint likelihood of the data and the partitions at hand, namely the model-based partition and the partitions associated to the external variables. It is noteworthy that each mixture model is fitted by the maximum likelihood methodology to the data, excluding the external variables which are used to select a relevant mixture model only. Numerical experiments illustrate the promising behaviour of the derived criterion. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

The contribution of multitemporal information from multispectral satellite images for automatic land cover classification at the national scale

Thesis submitted to the Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Management – Geographic Information Systems

Modelo preditivo da criminalidade – georeferenciação ao concelho de Lisboa

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Enhancing the selection of a model-based clustering with external categorical variables

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which are not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering context to select a number of clusters which both fits the data well and takes advantage of the potential illustrative ability of the external variables. This approach makes use of the integrated joint likelihood of the data and the partitions at hand, namely the model-based partition and the partitions associated to the external variables. It is noteworthy that each mixture model is fitted by the maximum likelihood methodology to the data, excluding the external variables which are used to select a relevant mixture model only. Numerical experiments illustrate the promising behaviour of the derived criterion.

Estimação de Modelos de Adopção e Difusão de Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação em Portugal

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Mental health promotion during pregnancy and early childhood : an action- research project in primary health care

ABSTRACT – Background: Primary Health Care (PHC) is usually the first contact with the health system, and health professionals are key mediators for enabling citizens to take care of their health. In Portugal, great improvements have been achieved in the biometric indicators of maternal and child health during the last decades. Nevertheless, scant attention has been paid to the mental health dimension, in spite of the recognition of its importance, being pregnancy and early childhood crucial opportunities in the lifecycle for mental health promotion, especially in the early years of life, with a strong impact in the health of the child. The impact of early attachment between mother and baby on maternal and child health has long been recognized. This attachment can be influenced by some factors, as the mother’s emotional adjustment. Attention to these factors may facilitate implementation of both positive conditions and preventative measures. Family support during the transition to parenthood has been highlighted as an effective measure and PHC professionals are in a privileged position as information sources as well as mediators. Aims: The project we present describes an action-research process developed together among academic researchers and health professionals to embrace these issues. We intend to enable health professionals to support families in the transition to parenthood thereby promoting children’s mental health. Approach: The project is driven by a participatory approach intended to lead to reorganization of health care during pregnancy and early childhood. Effective change happens when those involved are interested and motivated, what makes their participation so important. Reflection about current practices and needs, and knowledge about evidence-based interventions have been guiding the selection of changes to introduce in clinical practice for family support and development of parenthood skills and self-confidence. Development: We summarize the main steps in development: the initial assessment and the picture taken from the community under study; the decision making process; the training programme of PHC professionals in action; the review of the protocols of maternal consultation, home visits and antenatal education; the implementation planning; the plan for evaluation the effectiveness of the changes introduced in the delivery of maternal and child health care units. The already developed work has shown that motivation, leadership and organizational issues are decisive for process development.-------------------------- RESUMO - Os Cuidados de Saúde Primários são habitualmente o primeiro contacto com o sistema de saúde e os profissionais de saúde são mediadores chave na capacitação dos cidadãos para cuidarem da sua saúde. Em Portugal, nas últimas décadas, têm-se alcançado grandes melhorias nos indicadores biométricos de saúde materno-infantil. Contudo, tem-se dedicado pouca atenção à dimensão de saúde mental, apesar do reconhecimento da sua importância. A gravidez e primeira infância têm sido apontadas como uma oportunidade crucial no ciclo de vida para a promoção da saúde mental. É dado especial enfoque aos primeiros tempos de vida, dado o forte impacto na saúde da criança. O impacte da vinculação precoce entre a mãe e o bebé na saúde da mãe e da criança há muito que é reconhecido. Esta vinculação pode ser influenciada por vários factores, nomeadamente pelo ajustamento emocional da mãe. A focalização nestes aspectos pode facilitar a criação de condições favoráveis e a implementação de medidas preventivas. O suporte familiar durante o período de transição para a parentalidade tem sido enfatizado como uma medida eficaz e os Cuidados de Saúde Primários estão numa posição privilegiada como fontes de informação e como mediadores. O projecto que apresentamos descreve um processo de investigação- acção desenvolvido em parceria entre investigadores académicos e profissionais de saúde para abordar os aspectos referidos. Pretende-se capacitar os profissionais de saúde para apoiarem as famílias na transição para a parentalidade, promovendo assim a saúde mental das crianças. O projecto baseia-se numa abordagem participativa, direccionada para a reorganização dos cuidados durante a gravidez e primeiros tempos de vida. A mudança efectiva acontece quando os envolvidos estão interessados e motivados, o que torna a sua participação tão importante. A reflexão acerca das práticas e necessidades actuais e o conhecimento acerca de intervenções baseadas na evidência têm guiado a selecção das alterações a introduzir na prática clínica, no sentido de promover o suporte familiar e o desenvolvimento de competências parentais e auto-confiança. Neste artigo, apresentamos as etapas principais do desenvolvimento do projecto: avaliação inicial da comunidade em estudo; processo de tomada de decisão; programa de formação dos profissionais dos Cuidados de Saúde Primários; revisão dos protocolos da consulta de saúde materna, visita domiciliária e educação pré-natal; planeamento da implementação; plano de avaliação da efectividade das alterações introduzidas na prestação de cuidados. O trabalho já desenvolvido tem mostrado que a motivação, liderança e aspectos

Exploraty Multivariate Statistical Methods Applied to Pharmaceutical Industry CRM Data

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

SPATIOTEMPORAL TRENDS OF CASES OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA A(H1N1)PDM09 IN ARGENTINA, 2009-2012

The aim of this paper was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Argentina. A space-time permutation scan statistic was performed to test the non-randomness in the interaction between space and time in reported influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases. In 2009, two clusters were recorded in the east of Buenos Aires Province (May and June) and in the central and northern part of Argentina (July and August). Between 2011 and 2012, clusters near areas bordering other countries were registered. Within the clusters, in 2009, the high notification rates were first observed in the school-age population and then extended to the older population (15-59 years). From 2011 onwards, higher rates of reported cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in children under five years in center of the country. Two stages of transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 can be characterized. The first stage had high rates of notification and a possible interaction with individuals from other countries in the major cities of Argentina (pattern of hierarchy), and the second stage had an increased interaction in some border areas without a clear pattern of hierarchy. These results suggest the need for greater coordination in the Southern Cone countries, in order to implement joint prevention and vaccination policies.

CO2 Concentration in Day Care Centres is Related to Wheezing in Attending Children

Poor ventilation at day care centres (DCCs) was already reported, although its effects on attending children are not clear. This study aimed to evaluate the association between wheezing in children and indoor CO2 (a ventilation surrogate marker) in DCC and to identify behaviours and building characteristics potentially related to CO2. In phase I, 45 DCCs from Lisbon and Oporto (Portugal) were selected through a proportional stratified random sampling. In phase II, 3 months later, 19 DCCs were further reassessed after cluster analysis for the greatest difference comparison. In both phases, children’s respiratory health was assessed by ISAAC-derived questionnaires. Indoor CO2 concentrations and building characteristics of the DCC were evaluated in both phases, using complementary methods. Mixed effect models were used to analyze the data. In phase I, which included 3,186 children (mean age 3.1±1.5 years), indoor CO2 concentration in the DCC rooms was associated with reported wheezing in the past 12months (27.5 %) (adjusted odds ratio (OR) for each increase of 200 ppm 1.04, 95 % CI 1:01 to 1:07). In phase II, the association in the subsample of 1,196 children seen in 19 out of the initial 45 DCCs was not significant (adjusted OR 1.02, 95 % CI 0.96 to 1.08). Indoor CO2 concentration was inversely associated with the practices of opening Windows and internal doors and with higher wind velocity. A positive trend was observed between CO2 and prevalence of reported asthma (4.7 %). Conclusion: Improved ventilation is needed to achieve a healthier indoor environment in DCC.

Environment and Health in Children Day Care Centres (ENVIRH) - Study Rationale and Protocol

Background: Indoor air quality (IAQ) is considered an important determinant of human health. The association between exposure to volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, house dust mite, molds and bacteria in day care centers (DCC) is not completely clear. The aim of this project was to study these effects. Methods --- study design: This study comprised two phases. Phase I included an evaluation of 45 DCCs (25 from Lisbon and 20 from Oporto, targeting 5161 children). In this phase, building characteristics, indoor CO2 and air temperature/relative humidity, were assessed. A children’s respiratory health questionnaire derived from the ISAAC (International Study on Asthma and Allergies in Children) was also distributed. Phase II encompassed two evaluations and included 20 DCCs selected from phase I after a cluster analysis (11 from Lisbon and 9 from Oporto, targeting 2287 children). In this phase, data on ventilation, IAQ, thermal comfort parameters, respiratory and allergic health, airway inflammation biomarkers, respiratory virus infection patterns and parental and child stress were collected. Results: In Phase I, building characteristics, occupant behavior and ventilation surrogates were collected from all DCCs. The response rate of the questionnaire was 61.7% (3186 children). Phase II included 1221 children. Association results between DCC characteristics, IAQ and health outcomes will be provided in order to support recommendations on IAQ and children’s health. A building ventilation model will also be developed. Discussion: This paper outlines methods that might be implemented by other investigators conducting studies on the association between respiratory health and indoor air quality at DCC.