Az egyensúlyi ráták unicitása és a bérráta pozitivitása a Neumann-modell általánosításaiban (Uniqueness of equilibrium rates and the positive value of the wage rate in generalizations from the Neumann model)

Cikkünk arról a paradox jelenségről szól, hogy a fogyasztást explicit módon megjelenítő Neumann-modell egyensúlyi megoldásaiban a munkabért meghatározó létszükségleti termékek ára esetenként nulla lehet, és emiatt a reálbér egyensúlyi értéke is nulla lesz. Ez a jelenség mindig bekövetkezik az olyan dekomponálható gazdaságok esetén, amelyekben eltérő növekedési és profitrátájú, alternatív egyensúlyi megoldások léteznek. A jelenség sokkal áttekinthetőbb formában tárgyalható a modell Leontief-eljárásra épülő egyszerűbb változatában is, amit ki is használunk. Megmutatjuk, hogy a legnagyobbnál alacsonyabb szintű növekedési tényezőjű megoldások közgazdasági szempontból értelmetlenek, és így érdektelenek. Ezzel voltaképpen egyrészt azt mutatjuk meg, hogy Neumann kiváló intuíciója jól működött, amikor ragaszkodott modellje egyértelmű megoldásához, másrészt pedig azt is, hogy ehhez nincs szükség a gazdaság dekomponálhatóságának feltételezésére. A vizsgált téma szorosan kapcsolódik az általános profitráta meghatározásának - Sraffa által modern formába öntött - Ricardo-féle elemzéséhez, illetve a neoklasszikus növekedéselmélet nevezetes bér-profit, illetve felhalmozás-fogyasztás átváltási határgörbéihez, ami jelzi a téma elméleti és elmélettörténeti érdekességét is. / === / In the Marx-Neumann version of the Neumann model introduced by Morishima, the use of commodities is split between production and consumption, and wages are determined as the cost of necessary consumption. In such a version it may occur that the equilibrium prices of all goods necessary for consumption are zero, so that the equilibrium wage rate becomes zero too. In fact such a paradoxical case will always arise when the economy is decomposable and the equilibrium not unique in terms of growth and interest rate. It can be shown that a zero equilibrium wage rate will appear in all equilibrium solutions where growth and interest rate are less than maximal. This is another proof of Neumann's genius and intuition, for he arrived at the uniqueness of equilibrium via an assumption that implied that the economy was indecomposable, a condition relaxed later by Kemeny, Morgenstern and Thompson. This situation occurs also in similar models based on Leontief technology and such versions of the Marx-Neumann model make the roots of the problem more apparent. Analysis of them also yields an interesting corollary to Ricardo's corn rate of profit: the real cause of the awkwardness is bad specification of the model: luxury commodities are introduced without there being a final demand for them, and production of them becomes a waste of resources. Bad model specification shows up as a consumption coefficient incompatible with the given technology in the more general model with joint production and technological choice. For the paradoxical situation implies the level of consumption could be raised and/or the intensity of labour diminished without lowering the equilibrium rate of the growth and interest. This entails wasteful use of resources and indicates again that the equilibrium conditions are improperly specified. It is shown that the conditions for equilibrium can and should be redefined for the Marx-Neumann model without assuming an indecomposable economy, in a way that ensures the existence of an equilibrium unique in terms of the growth and interest rate coupled with a positive value for the wage rate, so confirming Neumann's intuition. The proposed solution relates closely to findings of Bromek in a paper correcting Morishima's generalization of wage/profit and consumption/investment frontiers.

Kamatlábak és árszint kis, nyitott gazdaságban = Interest rates and price levels in a small open economy

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a különböző kamatlábaknak milyen hatásai vannak az árszintre, illetve a nominális árakra egy nyitott elsősorban kis, nyitott gazdaságban szabad tőkeáramlás mellett. Míg a zárt gazdaságban csupán a nominális és reálkamatláb megkülönböztetése a lényeges, nyitott gazdaságban a kamatlábak vizsgálatakor meg kell fontolnunk a kamatlábparitás kérdését is. Tisztáznunk kell a reálkamatláb összetevőit, amelyben fontos szerepet kap mind az árfolyam-begyűrűzés (pass-through), mind pedig a kockázati prémium mértéke. A kamatlábhatások vizsgálatakor először azt a mechanizmust elemezzük, amely által a kamatláb befolyásolja a tartós jószágok költségét (explicit vagy implicit bérleti díját). Másodszor az exportszektor termelési döntése és a hazai kamatláb viszonyára vonatkozó mechanizmust vizsgáljuk. Belátjuk, hogy az exportáló szektor döntései függetlenek lehetnek a belföldi kamatlábaktól. Harmadszor bizonyos árazási viselkedéseket tanulmányozunk. Bebizonyítjuk, hogy a kamatláb olyan növelése, ami nem változtat a jelenlegi árfolyamon, árszintnövelő az importőr ország számára. Megfogalmazható az a nézet, hogy ha van is a kamatlábaknak keresleti hatása a zárt gazdaságban, a kis, nyitott gazdaságban ez vélhetőleg sokkal gyengébb. _____ The study examines what effects various interest rates have on the price level and nomi-nal prices in an open (primarily small) economy with free flows of capital. A closed economy calls for a distinction only between nominal and real rates of interest, but in an open economy, questions of interest-rate parity have to be considered as well. It is nec-essary to clarify the factors behind the real interest rate important for price-level pass-through and for the scale of risk premium. Analysis of interest-rate effects begins with the mechanism whereby the interest rate influences the cost of fixed assets (explicit or implicit rents). Secondly, the mechanism behind the relation of export-sector production decisions and domestic interest rates is examined. It emerges that decisions of the export sector are independent of domestic interest rates. Thirdly, certain types of pricing behav-iour are studied. It is shown that a rise in the interest rate that does not alter the present exchange rate is a price-raising factor for the importing country. It can be assumed that if the interest rate has a demand effect in a closed economy, this will presumably be much weaker in a small open economy.

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Intra-Population Variation in Activity Ranges, Diel Patterns, Movement Rates, and Habitat Use of American Alligators in a Subtropical Estuary

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intra-population variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

Slow Isotope Turnover Rates and Low Discrimination Values in the American Alligator: Implications for Interpretation of Ectotherm Stable Isotope Data

Stable isotope analysis has become a standard ecological tool for elucidating feeding relationships of organisms and determining food web structure and connectivity. There remain important questions concerning rates at which stable isotope values are incorporated into tissues (turnover rates) and the change in isotope value between a tissue and a food source (discrimination values). These gaps in our understanding necessitate experimental studies to adequately interpret field data. Tissue turnover rates and discrimination values vary among species and have been investigated in a broad array of taxa. However, little attention has been paid to ectothermic top predators in this regard. We quantified the turnover rates and discrimination values for three tissues (scutes, red blood cells, and plasma) in American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis). Plasma turned over faster than scutes or red blood cells, but turnover rates of all three tissues were very slow in comparison to those in endothermic species. Alligator δ15N discrimination values were surprisingly low in comparison to those of other top predators and varied between experimental and control alligators. The variability of δ15N discrimination values highlights the difficulties in using δ15N to assign absolute and possibly even relative trophic levels in field studies. Our results suggest that interpreting stable isotope data based on parameter estimates from other species can be problematic and that large ectothermic tetrapod tissues may be characterized by unique stable isotope dynamics relative to species occupying lower trophic levels and endothermic tetrapods.

Temperature, salinity, methane concentration, oxidation rates and methanotrophic cell number at Svalbard seeps in summer 2011 and 2012 (cruises POS419 and MSM21/4)

Large amounts of the greenhouse gas methane are released from the seabed to the water column where it may be consumed by aerobic methanotrophic bacteria. This microbial filter is consequently the last marine sink for methane before its liberation to the atmosphere. The size and activity of methanotrophic communities, which determine the capacity of the water column methane filter, are thought to be mainly controlled by nutrient and redox dynamics, but little is known about the effects of ocean currents. Here, we report measurements of methanotrophic activity and biomass (CARD-FISH) at methane seeps west of Svalbard, and related them to physical water mass properties (CTD) and modelled current dynamics. We show that cold bottom water containing a large number of aerobic methanotrophs was rapidly displaced by warmer water with a considerably smaller methanotrophic community. This water mass exchange, caused by short-term variations of the West Spitsbergen Current, constitutes a rapid oceanographic switch severely reducing methanotrophic activity in the water column. Strong and fluctuating currents are widespread oceanographic features common at many methane seep systems and are thus likely to globally affect methane oxidation in the ocean water column.

Age models, accumulation rates, and grain size distributions of sediment cores from the northern subtropical Atlantic

The terrigenous sediment proportion of the deep sea sediments from off Northwest Africa has been studied in order to distinguish between the aeolian and the fluvial sediment supply. The present and fossil Saharan dust trajectories were recognized from the distribution patterns of the aeolian sediment. The following timeslices have been investigated: Present, 6,000, 12,000 and 18,000 y. B. P. Furthermore, the quantity of dust deposited off the Saharan coast has been estimated. For this purpose, 80 surface sediment samples and 34 sediment cores have been analysed. The stratigraphy of the cores has been achieved from oxygen isotopic curves, 14C-dating, foraminiferal transfer temperatures, and carbonate contents. Silt sized biogenic opal generally accounts for less than 2 % of the total insoluble sediment proportion. Only under productive upwelling waters and off river mouths, the opal proportion exceeds 2 % significantly. The modern terrigenous sediment from off the Saharan coast is generally characterized by intensely stained quartz grains. They indicate an origin from southern Saharan and Sahelian laterites, and a zonal aeolian transport in midtropospheric levels, between 1.5 an 5.5 km, by 'Harmattan' Winds. The dust particles follow large outbreaks of Saharan air across the African coast between 15° and 21° N. Their trajectories are centered at about 18° N and continue further into a clockwise gyre situated south of the Canary Islands. This course is indicated by a sickle-shaped tongue of coarser grain sizes in the deep-sea sediment. Such loess-sized terrigenous particles only settle within a zone extending to 700 km offshore. Fine silt and clay sized particles, with grain sizes smaller than 10- 15 µm, drift still further west and can be traced up to more than 4,000 km distance from their source areas. Additional terrigenous silt which is poor in stained quartz occurs within a narrow zone off the western Sahara between 20° and 27° N only. It depicts the present dust supply by the trade winds close to the surface. The dust load originates from the northwestern Sahara, the Atlas Mountains and coastal areas, which contain a particularly low amount of stained quartz. The distribution pattern of these pale quartz sediments reveals a SSW-dispersal of dust being consistent with the present trade wind direction from the NNE. In comparison to the sediments from off the Sahara and the deeper subtropical Atlantic, the sediments off river mouths, in particular off the Senegal river, are characterized by an additional input of fine grained terrigenous particles (< 6 µm). This is due to fluvial suspension load. The fluvial discharge leads to a relative excess of fine grained particles and is observed in a correlation diagram of the modal grain sizes of terrigenous silt with the proportion of fine fraction (< 6 µm). The aeolian sediment contribution by the Harmattan Winds strongly decreased during the Climatic Optimum at 6,000 y. B. P. The dust discharge of the trade winds is hardly detectable in the deep-sea sediments. This probably indicates a weakened atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the fluvial sediment supply reached a maximum, and can be traced to beyond Cape Blanc. Thus, the Saharan climate was more humid at 6,000 y B. P. A latitudinal shift of the Harmattan driven dust outbreaks cannot be observed. Also during the Glacial, 18,000 y. B. P., Harmattan dust transport crossed the African coast at latitudes of 15°-20° N. Its sediment load increased intensively, and markedly coarser grains spread further into the Atlantic Ocean. An expanded zone of pale-quart sediments indicates an enhanced dust supply by the trade winds blowing from the NE. No synglacial fluvial sediment contribution can be recognized between 12° and 30° N. This indicates a dry glacial climate and a strengthened stmospheric circulation over the Sahelian and Saharan region. The climatic transition pahes, at 12, 000 y. B. P., between the last Glacial and the Intergalcial, which is compareable to the Alerod in Europe, is characterized by an intermediate supply of terrigenous particles. The Harmattan dust transport wa weaker than during the Glacial. The northeasterly trade winds were still intensive. River supply reached a first postglacial maximum seaward of the Senegal river mouth. This indicates increasing humidity over the southern Sahara and a weaker atmospheric circulation as compared to the glacial. The accumulation rates of the terrigenous silt proportion (> 6 µm) decrcase exponentially with increasing distance from the Saharan coast. Those of the terrigenous fine fraction (< 6 µm) follow the same trend and show almost similar gradients. Accordingly, also the terrigenous fine fraction is believed to result predominantly from aeolian transport. In the Atlantic deep-sea sediments, the annual terrigenous sediment accumulation has fluctuated, from about 60 million tons p. a. during the Late Glacial (13,500-18,000 y. B. P, aeolian supply only) to about 33 million tons p. a. during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (6,000-9,000 y. B. P, mainly fluvial supply), when the river supply has reached a maximum, and to about 45 million tons p. a. during the last 4,000 years B. P. (fluvial supply only south of 18° N).

Sedimentation rates and geochemical analysis of surface sediments from the South Atlantic

Extensive investigations of sedimentary barium were performed in the southern South Atlantic in order to assess the reliability of the barium signal in Antarctic sediments as a proxy for paleoproductivity. Maximum accumulation rates of excess barium were calculated for the Antarctic zone south of the polar front where silica accumulates at high rates. The correspondence between barium and opal supports the applicability of barium as a proxy for productivity. Within the Antarctic zone north of today's average sea ice maximum, interglacial vertical rain rates of excess barium are high, with a maximum occurring during the last deglaciation and early Holocene and during oxygen isotope chronozone 5.5. During these periods, the maximum silica accumulation was supposedly located south of the polar front. Glacial paleoproductivity, instead, was low within the Antarctic zone. North of the polar front, significantly higher barium accumulation occurs during glacial times. The vertical rain rates, however, are as high as in the glacial Antarctic zone. Therefore there was no evidence for an increased productivity in the glacial Southern Ocean.

(Table 3) Barium barite and excess comparison, accumulation rates and productivity from surface sediments

Since Dymond et al. (1992, doi:10.1029/92PA00181) proposed the paleoproductivity algorithm based on "Bio-Ba", which relies on a strong correlation between Ba and organic carbon fluxes in sediment traps, this proxy has been applied in many paleoproductivity studies. Barite, the main carrier of particulate barium in the water column and the phase associated with carbon export, has also been suggested as a reliable paleoproductivity proxy in some locations. We demonstrate that Ba(excess) (total barium minus the fraction associated with terrigenous material) frequently overestimates Ba(barite) (barium associated with the mineral barite), most likely due to the inclusion of barium from phases other than barite and terrigenous silicates (e.g., carbonate, organic matter, opal, Fe-Mn oxides, and hydroxides). A comparison between overlying oceanic carbon export and carbon export derived from Ba(excess) shows that the Dymond et al. (1992) algorithm frequently underestimates carbon export but is still a useful carbon export indicator if all caveats are considered before the algorithm is applied. Ba(barite) accumulation rates from a wide range of core top sediments from different oceanic settings are highly correlated to surface ocean 14C and Chlorophyll a measurements of primary production. This relationship varies by ocean basin, but with the application of the appropriate f ratio to 14C and Chlorophyll a primary production estimates, the plot of Ba(barite) accumulation and carbon export for the equatorial Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern Ocean converges to a global relationship that can be used to reconstruct paleo carbon export.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Sediment rates and structures in Bay of Kiel, Baltic Sea

Density and diversity of bottom fauna population as dependent on sediment types and water depth is largely well known in Kiel Bay. This is in contrast to structures and processes of bioturbation, although generally it has a big influence on the benthic boundary layer and its processes, e.g., the metabolism of the bottom fauna, the mechanical properties, the age dating, and the large field of chemical processes. In the densely inhabited sands and muddy sands of the shallower waters with sediment thicknesses of some decimeters only, bioturbation is usually ubiquitous, and most of the structures left are monotonously of "biodeformational" character. At greater water depths, however, where a sedimentary column of several meters of Holocene is developed, the X-ray radiographs of numerous sediment cores show heterogeneous biogenic structures with regional and stratigraphical differentiation. They are described in terms of ichnofabrics and are interpreted on ethological knowledge of the related macrobenthos species. lmportant organisms creating specific traces include the bivalve Arctica (Cyprina) islandica and the polychaete worm Pectinaria koreni. These species are abundant in Kiel Bay and produce by their crawling-plowing mode of locomotion, a characteristic biogenic stratification, the "plow-sole structure". Other typical biogenic structures are tube traces, which are left by a number of different polychaetes occurring either singly, or as U-pairs mainly in mud sediments. Although sea urchins are rare to absent in Kiel Bay, layers of their characteristic traces Scolicia occur as witness of paleohydrographic events in channel sediments of the central bay. Plow-sole traces, polychaete-tube ichnofabric, Scolicia layers and alternations of laminated and bioturbated layers are considered as building blocks of a future "ichnostratigraphy" of Kiel Bay.

Are long gamma-ray bursts biased tracers of star formation? Clues from the host galaxies of the Swift/BAT6 complete sample of bright LGRBs II. Star formation rates and metallicities at z < 1

Aims. Long gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs) are associated with the deaths of massive stars and might therefore be a potentially powerful tool for tracing cosmic star formation. However, especially at low redshifts (z< 1.5) LGRBs seem to prefer particular types of environment. Our aim is to study the host galaxies of a complete sample of bright LGRBs to investigate the effect of the environment on GRB formation. Methods. We studied host galaxy spectra of the Swift/BAT6 complete sample of 14 z< 1 bright LGRBs. We used the detected nebular emission lines to measure the dust extinction, star formation rate (SFR), and nebular metallicity (Z) of the hosts and supplemented the data set with previously measured stellar masses M_*. The distributions of the obtained properties and their interrelations (e.g. mass-metallicity and SFR-M_* relations) are compared to samples of field star-forming galaxies. Results. We find that LGRB hosts at z< 1 have on average lower SFRs than if they were direct star formation tracers. By directly comparing metallicity distributions of LGRB hosts and star-forming galaxies, we find a good match between the two populations up to 12 +log (O/H)~8.4−8.5, after which the paucity of metal-rich LGRB hosts becomes apparent. The LGRB host galaxies of our complete sample are consistent with the mass-metallicity relation at similar mean redshift and stellar masses. The cutoff against high metallicities (and high masses) can explain the low SFR values of LGRB hosts. We find a hint of an increased incidence of starburst galaxies in the Swift/BAT6 z< 1 sample with respect to that of a field star-forming population. Given that the SFRs are low on average, the latter is ascribed to low stellar masses. Nevertheless, the limits on the completeness and metallicity availability of current surveys, coupled with the limited number of LGRB host galaxies, prevents us from investigating more quantitatively whether the starburst incidence is such as expected after taking into account the high-metallicity aversion of LGRB host galaxies.

Degradation rates and productivity signals of organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst species in surface sediment samples

To understand the role of the ocean within the global carbon cycle, detailed information is required on key-processes within the marine carbon cycle; bio-production in the upper ocean, export of the produced material to the deep ocean and the storage of carbon in oceanic sediments. Quantification of these processes requires the separation of signals of net primary production and the rate of organic matter decay as reflected in fossil sediments. This study examines the large differences in degradation rates of organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst species to separate these degradation and productivity signals. For this, accumulation rates of cyst species known to be resistant (R-cysts) or sensitive (S-cysts) to aerobic degradation of 62 sites are compared to mean annual chlorophyll-a, sea-surface temperature, sea-surface salinity, nitrate and phosphate concentrations of the upper waters and deep-water oxygen concentrations. Furthermore, the degradation of sensitive cysts, as expressed by the degradation constant k and reaction time t, has been related to bottom water [O2]. The studied sediments were taken from the Arabian Sea, north-western African Margin (North Atlantic), western-equatorial Atlantic Ocean/Caraibic, south-western African margin (South Atlantic) and Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector). Significant relationships are observed between (a) accumulation rates of R-cysts and upper water chlorophyll-a concentrations, (b) accumulation rates of S-cysts and bottom water [O2] and (c) degradation rates of S-cysts (kt) and bottom water [O2]. Relationships that are extremely weak or are clearly insignificant on all confidence intervals are between (1) S-cyst accumulation rates and chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea-surface temperature (SST), sea-surface salinity (SSS), phosphate concentrations (P) and nitrate concentrations (N), (2) between R-cyst accumulation rates and bottom water [O2], SST, SSS, P and N, and between (3) kt and water depth. Co-variance is present between the parameters N and P, N, P and chlorophyll-a, oxygen and water depth. Correcting for this co-variance does not influence the significance of the relationship given above. The possible applicability of dinoflagellate cyst degradation to estimate past net primary production and deep ocean ventilation is discussed.

(Table 1) Radiolarian accumulation rates and geochemistry of ODP Site 184-1143

Late Miocene-Recent micropaleontological and geochemical records from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea (SCS) indicate that increase and decrease in abundance of siliceous plankton may be controlled mainly by the input of nutrients derived from land and provided by upwelling. A high export production event - a "biogenic bloom" event - occurred in the southern SCS between 12 and 6 Ma. During this period, high ratios of smectite/(illite + chlorite), smectite/quartz and Al/K indicate a high weathering intensity of the Asian continent, possibly due to the intensification of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which may have increased the net flux of nutrients to the ocean, both directly through terrestrial input and indirectly through upwelling activity. A drop in Ba/Ti, Al/Ti and Ca/Ti values around 6 Ma may indicate a lowering of productivity, possibly due to the large consumption of sea surface nutrients by the "biogenic bloom". Alternatively, it may indicate a shift in terrigenous input source area. At about 5.4 Ma, a decrease in weathering intensity, as indicated by a sudden decrease in the values of smectite/(illite + chlorite), smectite/quartz and Al/K, might have led to a sudden decrease of terrestrial nutrient input to the SCS. We suggest that the biogenic bloom ended when nutrients in surface waters were exhausted, because of a decrease in supply as well as a decrease in upwelling intensity due to weakening of the EASM. As a result, radiolarians were absent in the studied area between ~6 and 3.2 Ma. At ~3.2 Ma, radiolarians began to recover, possibly because the start of Northern Hemispheric glaciation and the rapid uplift of the Tibet Plateau led to intensification of the East Asian monsoon. After the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition at 0.9 Ma, the abundance and mass accumulation rates of radiolarians increased, probably as a result of increased upwelling activity driven by the increasing intensity of the summer monsoon.

(Table 1) Methane concentrations, MOX rates and MOB abundance in arctic aquatic ecosystems of the Lena Delta, Northeast Siberia

Large amounts of organic carbon are stored in Arctic permafrost environments, and microbial activity can potentially mineralize this carbon into methane, a potent greenhouse gas. In this study, we assessed the methane budget, the bacterial methane oxidation (MOX) and the underlying environmental controls of arctic lake systems, which represent substantial sources of methane. Five lake systems located on Samoylov Island (Lena Delta, Siberia) and the connected river sites were analyzed using radiotracers to estimate the MOX rates, and molecular biology methods to characterize the abundance and the community composition of methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB). In contrast to the river, the lake systems had high variation in the methane concentrations, the abundance and composition of the MOB communities, and consequently, the MOX rates. The highest methane concentrations and the highest MOX rates were detected in the lake outlets and in a lake complex in a floodplain area. Though, in all aquatic systems we detected both, Type I and II MOB, in lake systems we observed a higher diversity including MOB, typical of the soil environments. The inoculation of soil MOB into the aquatic systems, resulting from permafrost thawing, might be an additional factor controlling the MOB community composition and potentially methanotrophic capacity.