Exact and approximate Bayesian inference for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new simulation methodology in order to obtain exact or approximate Bayesian inference for models for low-valued count time series data that have computationally demanding likelihood functions. The algorithm fits within the framework of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) methods. The particle filter requires only model simulations and, in this regard, our approach has connections with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, an advantage of using the PMCMC approach in this setting is that simulated data can be matched with data observed one-at-a-time, rather than attempting to match on the full dataset simultaneously or on a low-dimensional non-sufficient summary statistic, which is common practice in ABC. For low-valued count time series data we find that it is often computationally feasible to match simulated data with observed data exactly. Our particle filter maintains $N$ particles by repeating the simulation until $N+1$ exact matches are obtained. Our algorithm creates an unbiased estimate of the likelihood, resulting in exact posterior inferences when included in an MCMC algorithm. In cases where exact matching is computationally prohibitive, a tolerance is introduced as per ABC. A novel aspect of our approach is that we introduce auxiliary variables into our particle filter so that partially observed and/or non-Markovian models can be accommodated. We demonstrate that Bayesian model choice problems can be easily handled in this framework.

Contemporaneous correlations within individuals in an automated web-based walking program (Walk@Work) over a six week period (three phases) of time

Introduction: Participants may respond to phases of a workplace walking program at different rates. This study evaluated the factors that contribute to the number of steps through phases of the program. The intervention was automated through a web-based program designed to increase workday walking. Methods: The study reviewed independent variable influences throughout phases I–III. A convenience sample of university workers (n=56; 43.6±1.7 years; BMI 27.44±.2.15 kg/m2; 48 female) were recruited at worksites in Australia. These workers were given a pedometer (Yamax SW 200) and access to the website program. For analyses, step counts entered by workers into the website were downloaded and mean workday steps were compared using a seemingly unrelated regression. This model was employed to capture the contemporaneous correlation within individuals in the study across observed time periods. Results: The model predicts that the 36 subjects with complete information took an average 7460 steps in the baseline two week period. After phase I, statistically significance increases in steps (from baseline) were explained by age, working status (full or part time), occupation (academic or professional), and self reported public transport (PT) use (marginally significant). Full time workers walked more than part time workers by about 440 steps, professionals walked about 300 steps more than academics, and PT users walked about 400 steps more than non-PT users. The ability to differentiate steps after two weeks among participants suggests a differential affect of the program after only two weeks. On average participants increased steps from week two to four by about 525 steps, but regular auto users had nearly 750 steps less than non-auto users at week four. The effect of age was diminished in the 4th week of observation and accounted for 34 steps per year of age. In phase III, discriminating between participants became more difficult, with only age effects differentiating their increase over baseline. The marginal effect of age by phase III compared to phase I, increased from 36 to 50, suggesting a 14 step per year increase from the 2nd to 6th week. Discussion: The findings suggest that participants responded to the program at different rates, with uniformity of effect achieved by the 6th week. Participants increased steps, however a tapering off occurred over time. Age played the most consistent role in predicting steps over the program. PT use was associated with increased step counts, while Auto use was associated with decreased step counts.

A reliable real-time transport protocol for networked control systems over wireless networks

Deploying wireless networks in networked control systems (NCSs) has become more and more popular during the last few years. As a typical type of real-time control systems, an NCS is sensitive to long and nondeterministic time delay and packet losses. However, the nature of the wireless channel has the potential to degrade the performance of NCS networks in many aspects, particularly in time delay and packet losses. Transport layer protocols could play an important role in providing both reliable and fast transmission service to fulfill NCS’s real-time transmission requirements. Unfortunately, none of the existing transport protocols, including the Transport Control Protocol (TCP) and the User Datagram Protocol (UDP), was designed for real-time control applications. Moreover, periodic data and sporadic data are two types of real-time data traffic with different priorities in an NCS. Due to the lack of support for prioritized transmission service, the real-time performance for periodic and sporadic data in an NCS network is often degraded significantly, particularly under congested network conditions. To address these problems, a new transport layer protocol called Reliable Real-Time Transport Protocol (RRTTP) is proposed in this thesis. As a UDP-based protocol, RRTTP inherits UDP’s simplicity and fast transmission features. To improve the reliability, a retransmission and an acknowledgement mechanism are designed in RRTTP to compensate for packet losses. They are able to avoid unnecessary retransmission of the out-of-date packets in NCSs, and collisions are unlikely to happen, and small transmission delay can be achieved. Moreover, a prioritized transmission mechanism is also designed in RRTTP to improve the real-time performance of NCS networks under congested traffic conditions. Furthermore, the proposed RRTTP is implemented in the Network Simulator 2 for comprehensive simulations. The simulation results demonstrate that RRTTP outperforms TCP and UDP in terms of real-time transmissions in an NCS over wireless networks.

On the time spent preparing grant proposals : an observational study of Australian researchers

Objective: To estimate the time spent by the researchers for preparing grant proposals, and to examine whether spending more time increase the chances of success. Design: Observational study. Setting: The National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia. Participants: Researchers who submitted one or more NHMRC Project Grant proposals in March 2012. Main outcome measures: Total researcher time spent preparing proposals; funding success as predicted by the time spent. Results: The NHMRC received 3727 proposals of which 3570 were reviewed and 731 (21%) were funded. Among our 285 participants who submitted 632 proposals, 21% were successful. Preparing a new proposal took an average of 38 working days of researcher time and a resubmitted proposal took 28 working days, an overall average of 34 days per proposal. An estimated 550 working years of researchers' time (95% CI 513 to 589) was spent preparing the 3727 proposals, which translates into annual salary costs of AU$66 million. More time spent preparing a proposal did not increase the chances of success for the lead researcher (prevalence ratio (PR) of success for 10 day increase=0.91, 95% credible interval 0.78 to 1.04) or other researchers (PR=0.89, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.17). Conclusions: Considerable time is spent preparing NHMRC Project Grant proposals. As success rates are historically 20–25%, much of this time has no immediate benefit to either the researcher or society, and there are large opportunity costs in lost research output. The application process could be shortened so that only information relevant for peer review, not administration, is collected. This would have little impact on the quality of peer review and the time saved could be reinvested into research.

The time course of in vivo recovery of transverse strain in high-stress tendons following exercise

Objective To evaluate the time course of the recovery of transverse strain in the Achilles and patellar tendon following a bout of resistance exercise. Methods Seventeen healthy adults underwent sonographic examination of the right patellar (n=9) and Achilles (n=8) tendons immediately prior to and following 90 repetitions of weight-bearing quadriceps and gastrocnemius-resistance exercise performed against an effective resistance of 175% and 250% body weight, respectively. Sagittal tendon thickness was determined 20 mm from the enthesis and transverse strain, as defined by the stretch ratio, was repeatedly monitored over a 24 h recovery period. Results Resistance exercise resulted in an immediate decrease in Achilles (t7=10.6, p<0.01) and patellar (t8=8.9, p<0.01) tendon thickness, resulting in an average transverse stretch ratio of 0.86±0.04 and 0.82±0.05, which was not significantly different between tendons. The magnitude of the immediate transverse strain response, however, was reduced with advancing age (r=0.63, p<0.01). Recovery in transverse strain was prolonged compared with the duration of loading and exponential in nature. The average primary recovery time was not significantly different between the Achilles (6.5±3.2 h) and patellar (7.1±3.2 h) tendons. Body weight accounted for 62% and 64% of the variation in recovery time, respectively. Conclusions Despite structural and biochemical differences between the Achilles and patellar tendon, the mechanisms underlying transverse creep recovery in vivo appear similar and are highly time dependent. These novel findings have important implications concerning the time required for the mechanical recovery of high-stress tendons following an acute bout of exercise.

Integrating real time positioning systems to improve blind lifting and loading crane operations

Mobile/tower cranes are the most essential forms of construction plant in use in the construction industry but are also the subject of several safety issues. Of these, blind lifting has been found to be one of the most hazardous of crane operations. To improve the situation, a real-time monitoring system that integrates the use of a Global Positioning System (GPS) and Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is developed. This system aims to identify unauthorized work or entrance of personnel within a pre-defined risk zone by obtaining positioning data of both site workers and the crane. The system alerts to the presence of unauthorized workers within a risk zone——currently defined as 3m from the crane. When this happens, the system suspends the power of the crane and a warning signal is generated to the safety management team. In this way the system assists the safety management team to manage the safety of hundreds of workers simultaneously. An onsite trial with debriefing interviews is presented to illustrate and validate the system in use.

Over time assessment data analysis tracking a school's on-going performance

In Australia, as in some other western nations, governments impose accountability measures on educational institutions (Earl, 2005). One such accountability measure is the National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) from which high-stakes assessment data is generated. In this article, a practical method of data analysis known as the Over Time Assessment Data Analysis (OTADA) is offered as an analytical process by which schools can monitor their current and over time performances. This analysis developed by the author, is currently used extensively in schools throughout Queensland. By Analysing in this way, teachers, and in particular principals, can obtain a quick and insightful performance overview. For those seeking to track the achievements and progress of year level cohorts, the OTADA should be considered.

Assessment of precision timing and real-time data networks for digital substation automation

This project researched the performance of emerging digital technology for high voltage electricity substations that significantly improves safety for staff and reduces the potential impact on the environment of equipment failure. The experimental evaluation used a scale model of a substation control system that incorporated real substation control and networking equipment with real-time simulation of the power system. The outcomes confirm that it is possible to implement Ethernet networks in high voltage substations that meet the needs of utilities; however component-level testing of devices is necessary to achieve this. The assessment results have been used to further develop international standards for substation communication and precision timing.

Demanding a change : time to act on statutory demands

The statutory demand procedure has been a part of our corporate law from its earliest modern formulations and it has been suggested, albeit anecdotally, that under the current regime, it gives rise to more litigation than any other part of the Corporations Act. Despite this there has been a lack of consideration of the underlying policy behind the procedure in both the case law and literature; both of which are largely centred on the technical aspects of the process. The purpose of this article is to examine briefly the process of the statutory demand in the context of the current insolvency law in Australia.

Social Media Sites as Online Information Grounds : An exploratory study of the ways in which Information Technology (IT) professionals experience social media

Social media tools are often the result of innovations in Information Technology and developed by IT professionals and innovators. Nevertheless, IT professionals, many of whom are responsible for designing and building social media technologies, have not been investigated on how they themselves use or experience social media for professional purposes. This study will use Information Grounds Theory (Pettigrew, 1998) as a framework to study IT professionals’ experience in using social media for professional purposes. Information grounds facilitates the opportunistic discovery of information within social settings created temporarily at a place where people gather for a specific purpose (e.g., doctors’ waiting rooms, office tea rooms etc.), but the social atmosphere stimulates spontaneous sharing of information (Pettigrew, 1999). This study proposes that social media has the qualities that make it a rich information grounds; people participate from separate “places” in cyberspace in a synchronous manner in real-time, making it almost as dynamic and unplanned as physical information grounds. There is limited research on how social media platforms are perceived as a “place,” (a place to go to, a place to gather, or a place to be seen in) that is comparable to physical spaces. There is also no empirical study on how IT professionals use or “experience” social media. The data for this study is being collected through a study of IT professionals who currently use Twitter. A digital ethnography approach is being taken wherein the researcher uses online observations and “follows” the participants online and observes their behaviours and interactions on social media. Next, a sub-set of participants will be interviewed on their experiences with and within social media and how social media compares with traditional methods of information grounds, information communication, and collaborative environments. An Evolved Grounded Theory (Glaser, 1992) approach will be used to analyse tweets data and interviews and to map the findings against the Information Ground Theory. Findings from this study will provide foundational understanding of IT professionals’ experiences within social media, and can help both professionals and researchers understand this fast-evolving method of communications.

Cerebral cortex activation mapping upon electrical muscle stimulation by 32-channel time-domain functional near-infrared spectroscopy

The application of different EMS current thresholds on muscle activates not only the muscle but also peripheral sensory axons that send proprioceptive and pain signals to the cerebral cortex. A 32-channel time-domain fNIRS instrument was employed to map regional cortical activities under varied EMS current intensities applied on the right wrist extensor muscle. Eight healthy volunteers underwent four EMS at different current thresholds based on their individual maximal tolerated intensity (MTI), i.e., 10 % < 50 % < 100 % < over 100 % MTI. Time courses of the absolute oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin concentrations primarily over the bilateral sensorimotor cortical (SMC) regions were extrapolated, and cortical activation maps were determined by general linear model using the NIRS-SPM software. The stimulation-induced wrist extension paradigm significantly increased activation of the contralateral SMC region according to the EMS intensities, while the ipsilateral SMC region showed no significant changes. This could be due in part to a nociceptive response to the higher EMS current intensities and result also from increased sensorimotor integration in these cortical regions.

Health complaints commissions in Australia : Time for a national approach to data collection

Health complaint commissions in Australia: Time for a national approach • There is considerable variation between jurisdictions in the ways complaint data are defined, collected and recorded by the Health complaint commissions. • Complaints from the public are an important accountability mechanism and an indicator of service quality. • The lack of a consistent approach leads to fragmentation of complaint data and a lost opportunity to use national data to assist policy development and identify the main areas causing consumers to complain. • We need a national approach to complaints data collection by the Health complaints commissions in order to better respond to patients’ concerns

Using real-time authentic online learning scenarios to teach criminal intelligence

Criminal intelligence is an area of expertise highly sought-after internationally and within a variety of justice-related professions; however, producing university graduates with the requisite professional knowledge, as well as analytical, organisational and technical skills presents a pedagogical and technical challenge to university educators. The situation becomes even more challenging when students are undertaking their studies by distance education. This best practice session showcases the design of an online undergraduate unit for final year justice students which uses an evolving real-time criminal scenario as the focus of authentic learning activities in order to prepare students for graduate roles within the criminal intelligence and justice professions. Within the unit, students take on the role of criminal intelligence analysts, applying relevant theories, models and strategies to solve a complex but realistic crime and complete briefings and documentation to industry standards as their major summative assessment task. The session will demonstrate how the design of the online unit corresponds to authentic learning principles, and will specifically map the elements of the unit design to Herrington & Oliver’s instructional design framework for authentic learning (2000; Herrington & Herrington 2006). The session will show how a range of technologies was used to create a rich learning experience for students that could be easily maintained over multiple unit iterations without specialist technical support. The session will also discuss the unique pedagogical affordances and challenges implicated in the location of the unit within an online learning environment, and will reflect on some of the lessons learned from the development which may be relevant to other authentic online learning contexts.

Using real-time authentic online learning scenarios to teach criminal intelligence : presentation

Criminal intelligence is an area of expertise highly sought-after internationally and within a variety of justice-related professions; however, producing university graduates with the requisite professional knowledge, as well as analytical, organisational and technical skills presents a pedagogical and technical challenge to university educators. The situation becomes even more challenging when students are undertaking their studies by distance education. This best practice session showcases the design of an online undergraduate unit for final year justice students which uses an evolving real-time criminal scenario as the focus of authentic learning activities in order to prepare students for graduate roles within the criminal intelligence and justice professions. Within the unit, students take on the role of criminal intelligence analysts, applying relevant theories, models and strategies to solve a complex but realistic crime and complete briefings and documentation to industry standards as their major summative assessment task. The session will demonstrate how the design of the online unit corresponds to authentic learning principles, and will specifically map the elements of the unit design to Herrington & Oliver’s instructional design framework for authentic learning (2000; Herrington & Herrington 2006). The session will show how a range of technologies was used to create a rich learning experience for students that could be easily maintained over multiple unit iterations without specialist technical support. The session will also discuss the unique pedagogical affordances and challenges implicated in the location of the unit within an online learning environment, and will reflect on some of the lessons learned from the development which may be relevant to other authentic online learning contexts.

Time to change consumer involvement in nursing research

The experiences of people affected by cancer are at the very heart of nursing research efforts. Because much of our work is focused on understanding how to improve experiences and outcomes for people with cancer, it is easy for us to believe that our research is inherently "person centered" and thus collaborative. Let's reflect on what truly collaborative approaches to cancer nursing research could be like, and how we measure up to such goals. Collaboration between people affected by cancer (consumers) and nurses in research is much more than providing a voice for individuals as participants in a research study. Today, research governing bodies in many countries require us to seek a different kind of consumer participation, where consumers and researchers work in partnership with one another to shape decisions about research priorities, policies, and practices.1 Most granting bodies now require explanations of how consumer and community participation will occur within a study. Ethical imperatives and the concept of patient advocacy also require that we give more considered attention to what is meant by consumer involvement.2 Consumers provide perspective on what will be relevant, acceptable, feasible, and sensitive research, having lived the experience of cancer. As a result, they offer practical insights that can ensure the successful conduct and better outcomes from research. Some granting bodies now even allocate a proportion of final score or assign a "public value" weighting for a grant, to recognize the importance of consumer involvement and reflect the quality of patient involvement in all stages of the research process.3