Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.

Efecto de la temperatura en la tasa de puesta de reinas de la hormiga argentina, Linepithema humile (Mayr, 1868), (Hymenoptera, Dolichoderine) bajo condiciones experimentales de monoginia y poliginia = Effect of temperature on the oviposition rate of the argentine ant queens, Linepithema humile (Mayr 1868), (Hymenoptera, Dolichoderine) under experimental conditions

Data concerning the effect of temperature on different physiological parameters of an invasive species can be a useful tool to predict its potential distribution range through the use of modelling approaches. In the case of the Argentine ant these data are too scarce and incomplete. The aim of the present study is to compile new data regarding the effect of temperature on the oviposition rate of the Argentine ant queens. We analysed the oviposition rate of queens at twelve controlled temperatures, ranging from 10ºC to 34ºC under different monogynous and polygynous conditions. The oviposition rate of the Argentine ant queens is affected by temperature in the same manner, independently of the number of queens in the nest. The optimal temperature for egg laying was 28ºC, and its upper and lower limits depended on the degree of polygyny

Wage inequality and economic growth in Mexican regions

Only a few studies have analysed the relationship between intraregional inequality and growth, although several studies have measured inequality at the regional level. The objective of this paper is to analyse the relationship between income (wage) inequality and economic growth in different regions of Mexico. We also try to identify factors that explain the variation of intra-regional inequality across Mexican regions and over time. Using macroeconomic databases and publicly available microdata, we apply techniques used in the fields of statistics and econometrics to obtain robust evidence on the relationship between growth and inequality. Our aim is to provide policy recommendations to support the design and implementation of growth-promoting measures thatavoid the exclusion of certain social groups. This paper provides reasons to use a spatial approach and an analysis of particular regions to avoid «one size fits all» policy recommendations.

Décision de baisser les salaires ou non: Le rôle de l'empathie face à une recommandation d'un supérieur hiérarchique (The role of Empathy in wage cut decisions).

En entreprise, les supérieurs hiérarchiques ont une influence non négligeable sur la prise de décision de leurs subordonnés. Ces derniers tendent à se conformer à l'avis de leur supérieur pour prendre leurs décisions. Toutefois, cette conformité des subordonnés à l'avis de leur supérieur peut devenir un problème lorsque l'avis reçu est questionnable d'un point de vue éthique. Les études antérieures menées à ce sujet ont démontré que le contenu n'a pas d'impact, c'est-à-dire que du moment qu'un avis est donné par un supérieur hiérarchique, les subordonnés tendent à se conformer à cet avis quelque soit son contenu. Dans la présente expérience, nous nous sommes intéressés à ce phénomène de conformité dans une prise de décision ayant des conséquences sur des personnes. En particulier, nous avons étudié le rôle de l'empathie, définit comme l'habilité de ressentir les émotions des autres ou de se mettre à leur place. Notre première hypothèse concerne l'effet principal de l'avis du supérieur : les participants tiennent compte de l'avis de leur supérieur dans leur prise de décision. Notre seconde hypothèse concerne le rôle modérateur de l'empathie: les participants haut en empathie sont moins sensibles à l'avis de leur supérieur que les participants bas en empathie étant donné qu'ils anticipent les conséquences de leur décision vis-à-vis des personnes concernées. Cent-douze étudiants ont participé à un exercice de mise en situation. Dans la peau d'un chef de Département d'une entreprise, ils devaient entre autres réfléchir au problème du niveau des salaires du personnel peu qualifié et en particulier au fait que cette catégorie de salariés était surpayée par rapport à ce qui se pratiquait sur le marché du travail. Cette expérience était composée de deux conditions, où l'avis du supérieur était manipulé. Dans la condition 1, l'avis du supérieur était de baisser les salaires, alors que dans la condition 2 l'avis était de garder les salaires constants. Les résultats ont confirmé nos hypothèses. Les participants recevant l'avis de leur supérieur de baisser les salaires ont effectivement pris la décision de baisser les salaires. Il a aussi été démontré que le niveau d'empathie modère cette relation. Les participants haut en empathie ont eu tendance à ne pas suivre l'avis donné contrairement aux participants bas en empathie. Cela démontre ainsi l'influence que peut avoir le contexte sur les individus et leur prise de décision mais aussi que les caractéristiques personnelles ont une influence non négligeable.

Effect of Smoking on Blood Pressure and Resting Heart Rate: A Mendelian Randomization Meta-Analysis in the CARTA Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is an important cardiovascular disease risk factor, but the mechanisms linking smoking to blood pressure are poorly understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on 141 317 participants (62 666 never, 40 669 former, 37 982 current smokers) from 23 population-based studies were included in observational and Mendelian randomization meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, and resting heart rate. For the Mendelian randomization analyses, a genetic variant rs16969968/rs1051730 was used as a proxy for smoking heaviness in current smokers. In observational analyses, current as compared with never smoking was associated with lower systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure and lower hypertension risk, but with higher resting heart rate. In observational analyses among current smokers, 1 cigarette/day higher level of smoking heaviness was associated with higher (0.21 bpm; 95% confidence interval 0.19; 0.24) resting heart rate and slightly higher diastolic blood pressure (0.05 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval 0.02; 0.08) and systolic blood pressure (0.08 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval 0.03; 0.13). However, in Mendelian randomization analyses among current smokers, although each smoking increasing allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with higher resting heart rate (0.36 bpm/allele; 95% confidence interval 0.18; 0.54), there was no strong association with diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, or hypertension. This would suggest a 7 bpm higher heart rate in those who smoke 20 cigarettes/day. CONCLUSIONS: This Mendelian randomization meta-analysis supports a causal association of smoking heaviness with higher level of resting heart rate, but not with blood pressure. These findings suggest that part of the cardiovascular risk of smoking may operate through increasing resting heart rate.

Public-private sector wage differentials by type of contract: evidence from Spain

The article examines public-private sector wage differentials in Spain using microdata from the Structure of Earnings Survey (Encuesta de Estructura Salarial). When applying various decomposition techniques, we find that it is important to distinguish by gender and type of contract. Our results also highlight the presence of a positive wage premium for public sector workers that can be partially explained by their better endowment of characteristics, in particular by the characteristics of the establishment where they work. The wage premium is greater for female and fixed-term employees and falls across the wage distribution, being negative for more highly skilled workers.

Overeducation, skills and wage penalty: Evidence for Spain using PIAAC data

The literature on educational mismatches finds that overeducated workers suffer a wage penalty compared with properly educated workers with the same level of education. Recent literature also suggests that individuals’ skill heterogeneity could explain wage differences between overeducated and properly matched workers. The hypothesis is that overeducated workers earn less due to their lower competences and skills in relative terms. However, that hypothesis has been rarely tested due to data limitations on individuals’ skills. The aim of this paper is to test the individuals’ skill heterogeneity theory in Spain using microdata from PIAAC, because it is one of the developed countries supporting the highest overeducation rates and where its adult population holds the lowest level of skills among a set of developed countries. Our hypothesis is that the wage penalty of overeducation in Spain is explained by the lower skill level of overeducated workers. The obtained evidence confirms this hypothesis but only to a certain extent as skills only explain partially the wage penalty of overeducation.

Typology of "Fatigue" by Heart Rate Variability Analysis in Elite Nordic-skiers.

This study investigated changes in heart rate variability (HRV) in elite Nordic-skiers to characterize different types of "fatigue" in 27 men and 30 women surveyed from 2004 to 2008. R-R intervals were recorded at rest during 8 min supine (SU) followed by 7 min standing (ST). HRV parameters analysed were powers of low (LF), high (HF) frequencies, (LF+HF) (ms(2)) and heart rate (HR, bpm). In the 1 063 HRV tests performed, 172 corresponded to a "fatigue" state and the first were considered for analysis. 4 types of "fatigue" (F) were identified: 1. F(HF(-)LF(-))SU_ST for 42 tests: decrease in LFSU (- 46%), HFSU (- 70%), LFST (- 43%), HFST (- 53%) and increase in HRSU (+ 15%), HRST (+ 14%). 2. F(LF(+) SULF(-) ST) for 8 tests: increase in LFSU (+ 190%) decrease in LFST (- 84%) and increase in HRST (+ 21%). 3. F(HF(-) SUHF(+) ST) for 6 tests: decrease in HFSU (- 72%) and increase in HFST (+ 501%). 4. F(HF(+) SU) for only 1 test with an increase in HFSU (+ 2161%) and decrease in HRSU (- 15%). Supine and standing HRV patterns were independently modified by "fatigue". 4 "fatigue"-shifted HRV patterns were statistically sorted according to differently paired changes in the 2 postures. This characterization might be useful for further understanding autonomic rearrangements in different "fatigue" conditions.

Radiothérapie « flash » à très haut débit de dose : un moyen d'augmenter l'indice thérapeutique par minimisation des dommages aux tissus sains [Ultrahigh dose-rate, "flash" irradiation minimizes the side-effects of radiotherapy].

PURPOSE: Pencil beam scanning and filter free techniques may involve dose-rates considerably higher than those used in conventional external-beam radiotherapy. Our purpose was to investigate normal tissue and tumour responses in vivo to short pulses of radiation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: C57BL/6J mice were exposed to bilateral thorax irradiation using pulsed (at least 40Gy/s, flash) or conventional dose-rate irradiation (0.03Gy/s or less) in single dose. Immunohistochemical and histological methods were used to compare early radio-induced apoptosis and the development of lung fibrosis in the two situations. The response of two human (HBCx-12A, HEp-2) tumour xenografts in nude mice and one syngeneic, orthotopic lung carcinoma in C57BL/6J mice (TC-1 Luc+), was monitored in both radiation modes. RESULTS: A 17Gy conventional irradiation induced pulmonary fibrosis and activation of the TGF-beta cascade in 100% of the animals 24-36 weeks post-treatment, as expected, whereas no animal developed complications below 23Gy flash irradiation, and a 30Gy flash irradiation was required to induce the same extent of fibrosis as 17Gy conventional irradiation. Cutaneous lesions were also reduced in severity. Flash irradiation protected vascular and bronchial smooth muscle cells as well as epithelial cells of bronchi against acute apoptosis as shown by analysis of caspase-3 activation and TUNEL staining. In contrast, the antitumour effectiveness of flash irradiation was maintained and not different from that of conventional irradiation. CONCLUSION: Flash irradiation shifted by a large factor the threshold dose required to initiate lung fibrosis without loss of the antitumour efficiency, suggesting that the method might be used to advantage to minimize the complications of radiotherapy.