Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Flow injection visible diffuse reflectance quantitative analysis of total sulfur in biodiesel, in plant leaves and in natural waters

Flow injection (FI) methodology, using diffuse reflectance in the visible region of the spectrum, for the analysis of total sulfur in the form of sulfate, precipitated in the form of barium sulfate, is presented. The method was applied to biodiesel, to plant leaves and to natural waters analysis. The analytical signal (S) correlates linearly with sulfate concentration (C) between 20 and 120 ppm, through the equation S=-1.138+0.0934 C (r = 0.9993). The experimentally observed limit of detection is about 10 ppm. The mean R.S.D. is about 3.0 %. Real samples containing sulfate were analyzed and the results obtained by the FI and by the reference batch turbidimetric method using the statistical Student's t-test and F-test were compared.

The cultural dimension in focus : promoting awareness of diversity and respect for difference in a Finland-Swedish EFL classroom

This study addresses the role of EFL education, its potential and shortcomings, and the challenges the future of EFL education will bring. It is argued that new societal demands and the limited time we have at our disposal in the classroom make it necessary to rethink goals and content and move away from the transmissionof limited sets of facts and information to helping students develop awareness and competences that can be applied in many different situations, also in a perspective of lifelong learning. The overall aim of the current study is to problematize and increase understanding of the implementation of cultural aspects in the language classroom by addressing the interrelated what, why and how of the cultural dimension within EFL education. This has been conducted by means of theoretical explorations into the area, alongside an attempt at promoting intercultural competence (IC) in a more systematic and insightful manner within my own educational praxis. The focus of the intercultural work in the classroom was on the promotion of awareness of difference and diversity, as well as respect for such difference through the ability to decenter from cultural norms and behavior that previously have been taken for granted. These are two elements that have been suggested as fundamental for other work with IC in the classroom and for the realization of important aspects of the underlying values of basic education. In the context of this study, IC comprises several interconnected components supportingeach other in a variety of ways, with the further aim being interaction with and respect for difference in general, not only concerning e.g. representatives ofcertain English-speaking communities. The methodology was informed by action research, with myself in the role of the teacher-researcher or the reflective practitioner. For the purpose of the project I was authorized to take on the EFL education for the three years of upper comprehensive school of one random class of students originally assigned to one of the language teachers of the selected Finland-Swedish school. Thus, the class of 17 students was not specifically chosen for the project, and the aims and contents chosen for the development project were placed within the framework of the ordinary curriculum. By exploring the students¿ insights concerning different English-speaking cultural groups, mainly through a set of questionnaires, it was possible to outline the work with the cultural dimension in the classroom for the following three years. Work progress was evaluated at specific stages, and the final project evaluations were conducted through individual student interviews in grade 9. The interviews were focused on possible development of students¿ insights concerning different aspects of the cultural dimension. In particular this concerned awareness of difference and diversity, including modification of stereotypes, as well as the ability to decenterin order to be better able to respect such difference. I also explored students¿ awareness and views of the activities and approaches used in class, as well asaffordances both inside and outside the EFL classroom in relation to these intended insights. A further focus area was the perceived relevance to students of different aspects of the cultural dimension. The frameworks and approaches adopted for the work in the classroom all have in common that they are based on a constructivist framework, where knowledge is constructed and reconstructed through interaction with one¿s social and cultural environment, including interaction with others. Reflective processes precede or are simultaneous with the learning of basic factual knowledge. This entails a view of learning as a progression from simple to more complex models rather than as a progression from facts to understanding and analysis. Here, the development of intercultural competence is seen asa cyclical process, or along a spiral curriculum, from simple to more complex levels through a combination of cognitive, affective and behavioral elements within a framework of experiential learning. This project has shown one possible wayforward concerning the development of intercultural competence within EFL education through a more systematic and comprehensive approach regarding linguistic and cultural aspects. The evaluation of the educational process explored in the study suggests the possibilities for work with the promotion of awareness of difference and diversity concerning some specific context that, based on students¿ prior knowledge and preconceptions, would benefit from further work. In this case, the specific context primarily concerned different aspects of both cultural and linguistic conditions in the UK. It is also suggested that many students developed the ability to decenter, described in the study as integral to being able to respect otherness. What still remains to be explored are more individualized approaches considering students¿ different levels of departure. Further work alsoneeds to be put into how to apply insights gained in these specific situations to more general contexts. It is also necessary to explore the use of the suggested approaches in a wider range of different contexts.

Comparação de taxas de erosão em estradas florestais estimadas pelo modelo WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) modificado em relção a medições experimentais

O objetivo do trabalho foi testar o modelo WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project), através de comparações entre volume de enxurrada e perda de solo observados experimentalmente, provenientes dos segmentos de estradas florestais submetidas à chuva natural com inclinações de 1 e 7% e comprimentos de rampa de 20 e 40 m, e aqueles preditos pelo aplicativo, visando o desenvolvimento de um modelo brasileiro de predição de erosão em estradas florestais. Na determinação da quantidade do material erodido foram instalados tambores coletores, com capacidade de 209,25 litros, localizados na parte inferior das estradas, onde foram inseridas tubulações de PVC de 2 polegadas para coleta dos sedimentos provenientes da estrada propriamente dita. Nos tambores coletores foram feitos orifícios nivelados e perfeitamente iguais, posicionados a 0,65 m do fundo do primeiro e a 0,60 m do fundo do segundo, que funcionaram como um divisor Geib. Nas parcelas de 20 e 40 m de comprimento foram feitos cinco e sete orifícios, respectivamente, no primeiro e segundo tambores. O terceiro tambor foi utilizado para coletar o excedente da enxurrada proveniente do segundo tambor. Os tambores foram ligados em série, através de cano PVC de 2 polegadas. Os dados de volume e intensidade de precipitação diária foram obtidos com a instalação de pluviômetro e pluviógrafo no local. O período de coleta de dados foi de um ano, concentrando-se na época das chuvas. Posteriormente, os arquivos de clima, precipitação, solo, inclinação e comprimento do segmento foram introduzidos e adaptados ao modelo de predição de erosão WEPP com o propósito de testá-lo, visando a confecção de um modelo apropriado às condições brasileiras.

Growth and yield prediction using the modified Buckman model

A model to manage even-aged stands was developed using a modification of the Buckman model. Data from Eucalyptus urophylla and Eucalyptus cloeziana stands located in the Northern region of Minas Gerais State, Brazil were used in the formulation of the system. The proposed model generated precise and unbiased estimates in non-thinned stands.

ESTIMATION OF CORK PRODUCTION USINGAERIAL IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT Inventory and prediction of cork harvest over time and space is important to forest managers who must plan and organize harvest logistics (transport, storage, etc.). Common field inventory methods including the stem density, diameter and height structure are costly and generally point (plot) based. Furthermore, the irregular horizontal structure of cork oak stands makes it difficult, if not impossible, to interpolate between points. We propose a new method to estimate cork production using digital multispectral aerial imagery. We study the spectral response of individual trees in visible and near infrared spectra and then correlate that response with cork production prior to harvest. We use ground measurements of individual trees production to evaluate the model’s predictive capacity. We propose 14 candidate variables to predict cork production based on crown size in combination with different NDVI index derivates. We use Akaike Information Criteria to choose the best among them. The best model is composed of combinations of different NDVI derivates that include red, green, and blue channels. The proposed model is 15% more accurate than a model that includes only a crown projection without any spectral information.

DYNAMICS AND PREDICTION OF DIAMETRIC STRUCTURE IN TWO ATLANTIC FOREST FRAGMENTS IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

ABSTRACT Monitoring analyses aim to understand the processes that drive changes in forest structure and, along with prediction studies, may assist in the management planning and conservation of forest remnants. The objective of this study was to analyze the forest dynamics in two Atlantic rainforest fragments in Pernambuco, Brazil, and to predict their future forest diameter structure using the Markov chain model. We used continuous forest inventory data from three surveys in two forest fragments of 87 ha (F1) and 388 ha (F2). We calculated the annual rates of mortality and recruitment, the mean annual increment, and the basal area for each of the 3-year periods. Data from the first and second surveys were used to project the third inventory measurements, which were compared to the observed values in the permanent plots using chi-squared tests (a = 0.05). In F1, a decrease in the number of individuals was observed due to mortality rates being higher than recruitment rates; however, there was an increase in the basal area. In this fragment, the fit to the Markov model was adequate. In F2, there was an increase in both the basal area and the number of individuals during the 6-year period due to the recruitment rate exceeding the mortality rate. For this fragment, the fit of the model was unacceptable. Hence, for the studied fragments, the demographic rates influenced the stem density more than the floristic composition. Yet, even with these intense dynamics, both fragments showed active growth.

Draft prediction models for soil engaging tines in two soils of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The draft forces of soil engaging tines and theoretical analysis compared to existing mathematical models, have yet not been studied in Rio Grande do Sul soils. From the existing models, those which can get the closest fitting draft forces to real measure on field have been established for two of Rio Grande do Sul soils. An Albaqualf and a Paleudult were evaluated. From the studied models, those suggested by Reece, so called "Universal Earthmoving Equation", Hettiaratchi and Reece, and Godwin and Spoor were the best fitting ones, comparing the calculated results with those measured "in situ". Allowing for the less complexity of Reece's model, it is suggested that this model should be used for modeling draft forces prediction for narrow tines in Albaqualf and Paleudut.

Characterization of soil parameters of two soils of Rio Grande do Sul in modeling the prediction of tractive effort

The interaction between the soil and tillage tool can be examined using different parameters for the soil and the tool. Among the soil parameters are the shear stress, cohesion, internal friction angle of the soil and the pre-compression stress. The tool parameters are mainly the tool geometry and depth of operation. Regarding to the soils of Rio Grande do Sul there are hardly any studies and evaluations of the parameters that have importance in the use of mathematical models to predict tensile loads. The objective was to obtain parameters related to the soils of Rio Grande do Sul, which are used in soil-tool analysis, more specifically on mathematical models that allow the calculation of tractive effort for symmetric and narrow tools. Two of the main soils of Rio Grande do Sul, an Albaqualf and a Paleudult were studied. Equations that relate the cohesion, internal friction angle of the soil, adhesion, soil-tool friction angle and pre-compression stress as a function of water content in the soil were obtained, leading to important information for use of mathematical models for tractive effort calculation.

Identification of croplands of winter cereals in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, through unsupervised classification of normalized difference vegetation index images

This study aimed to propose methods to identify croplands cultivated with winter cereals in the northern region of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Thus, temporal profiles of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from MODIS sensor, from April to December of the 2000 to 2008, were analyzed. Firstly, crop masks were elaborated by subtracting the minimum NDVI image (April to May) from the maximum NDVI image (June to October). Then, an unsupervised classification of NDVI images was carried out (Isodata), considering the crop mask areas. According to the results, crop masks allowed the identification of pixels with greatest green biomass variation. This variation might be associated or not with winter cereals areas established to grain production. The unsupervised classification generated classes in which NDVI temporal profiles were associated with water bodies, pastures, winter cereals for grain production and for soil cover. Temporal NDVI profiles of the class winter cereals for grain production were in agree with crop patterns in the region (developmental stage, management standard and sowing dates). Therefore, unsupervised classification based on crop masks allows distinguishing and monitoring winter cereal crops, which were similar in terms of morphology and phenology.

Prediction of free-stall occupancy rate in dairycattle barns through fuzzy sets

The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.