Explaining the Long-Term Trend in Violent Crime: A Heuristic Scheme and Some Methodological Considerations

There has been a discontinuous but fairly persistent long-term decline in homicide rates in core European countries since about 1500. Since the 1950s, however, we observe an upward trend in violent crime not only in Europe but in almost all of the economically advanced nations that combine democratic political structures with free-market economies. The paper presents an explanatory scheme designed to account for both, the long decline and its apparent reversal. The theoretical model draws heavily upon ideas taken from the sociological work of Emile Durkheim and Norbert Elias—with some modifications and extensions. It seeks to integrate sociological and historical perspectives and to give due weight to both, structural and developmental forces. A key hypothesis is that the pacifying effects of the erosion of traditional collectivism can only be maintained to the extent by which “cooperative individualism” dominates over against the forces of “disintegrative individualism.” Some suggestions are made concerning the selection of appropriate indicators and the handling of methodological problems related to causal attribution.

Institutions, Anomie, and Violent Crime: Clarifying and Elaborating Institutional-Anomie Theory

A limited but accumulating body of research and theoretical commentary offers support for core claims of the “institutional-anomie theory” of crime (IAT) and points to areas needing further development. In this paper, which focuses on violent crime, we clarify the concept of social institutions, elaborate the cultural component of IAT, derive implications for individual behavior, summarize empirical applications, and propose directions for future research. Drawing on Talcott Parsons, we distinguish the “subjective” and “objective” dimensions of institutional dynamics and discuss their interrelationship. We elaborate on the theory’s cultural component with reference to Durkheim’s distinction between “moral” and “egoistic” individualism and propose that a version of the egoistic type characterizes societies in which the economy dominates the institutional structure, anomie is rampant, and levels of violent crime are high. We also offer a heuristic model of IAT that integrates macro- and individual levels of analysis. Finally, we discuss briefly issues for the further theoretical elaboration of this macro-social perspective on violent crime. Specifically, we call attention to the important tasks of explaining the emergence of economic dominance in the institutional balance of power and of formulating an institutional account for distinctive punishment practices, such as the advent of mass incarceration in the United States.

Violence, Crime, and Violent Crime

I propose a dual conceptualization of violent crime. Since violent crime is both violence and crime, theories of aggression and deviance are required to understand it. I argue that both harm-doing and rule breaking are instrumental behaviors and that a bounded rational choice approach can account for both behaviors. However, while some of the causes of harm-doing and deviance (and violent and nonviolent crime) are the same, some are different. Theories of crime and deviance cannot explain why one only observes individual and group differences in violent crime and theories of aggression and violence cannot explain why one observes differences in all types of crimes. Such theories are “barking up the wrong tree.”

Clausewitz’s “Wondrous Trinity” as a Coordinate System of War and Violent Conflict

Rather than discarding Clausewitz’s theory of war in response to the revolutionary changes in modern warfare, this article articulates a broader theory of war based on his concept of the “wondrous trinity,” identifying it as his true legacy. The author shows that the concept of trinitarian war attributed to Clausewitz by his critics, which seems to be applicable only to wars between states, is a caricature of Clausewitz’s theory. He goes on to develop Clausewitz’s theory that war is composed of the three tendencies of violence/force, fighting, and the affiliation of the combatants to a warring community. Each war can be analyzed as being composed of these three tendencies and their opposites.

The Effect of the Japan 2011 Disaster on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Stocks Worldwide: An Event Study

This event study investigates the impact of the Japanese nuclear disaster in Fukushima-Daiichi on the daily stock prices of French, German, Japanese, and U.S. nuclear utility and alternative energy firms. Hypotheses regarding the (cumulative) abnormal returns based on a three-factor model are analyzed through joint tests by multivariate regression models and bootstrapping. Our results show significant abnormal returns for Japanese nuclear utility firms during the one-week event window and the subsequent four-week post-event window. Furthermore, while French and German nuclear utility and alternative energy stocks exhibit significant abnormal returns during the event window, we cannot confirm abnormal returns for U.S. stocks.

The Storm Surge Event of the Netherlands in 1953

A disastrous storm surge hit the coast of the Netherlands on 31 January and 1 February 1953. We examine the meteorological situation during this event using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data set. We find a strong pressure gradient between Ireland and northern Germany accompanied by strong north-westerly winds over the North Sea. Storm driven sea level rise combined with spring tide contributed to this extreme event. The state of the atmosphere in 20CR during this extreme event is in good agreement with historical observational data

The extreme flood event of Lago Maggiore in September 1993

In September 1993, the Valais and Ticino regions of Switzerland were affected by extreme flooding triggered by heavy precipitation. The meteorological situation leading to this event is studied in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data set. A strong cut-off low development is found to be the driving synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation pattern. The agreement with previous studies highlights the applicability of 20CR for extreme event analysis.

Event-related potential P300 microstate topography during visual one- and two-dimensional tasks in chronic schizophrenics

Reports on left-lateralized abnormalities of component P300 of event-related brain potentials (ERP) in schizophrenics typically did not vary task difficulties. We collected 16-channel ERP in 13 chronic, medicated schizophrenics (25±4.9 years) and 13 matched controls in a visual P300 paradigm with targets defined by one or two stimulus dimensions (C1: color; C2: color and tilt); subjects key-pressed to targets. The mean target-ERP map landscapes were assessed numerically by the locations of the positive and negative map-area centroids. The centroids' time-space trajectories were searched for the P300 microstate landscape defined by the positive centroid posterior of the negative centroid. At P300 microstate centre latencies in C1, patients' maps tended to a right shift of the positive centroid (p<0.10); in C2 the anterior centroid was more posterior (p<0.07) and the posterior (positive) centroid more anterior (p<0.03), but without leftright difference. Duration of P300 microstate in C2 was shorter in patients (232 vs 347 ms;p<0.03) and the latency of maximal strength of P300 microstate increased significantly in patients (C1: 459 vs 376 ms; C2: 585 vs 525 ms). In summary only the one-dimensional task C1 supported left-sided abnormalities; the two-dimensional task C2 produced abnormal P300 microstate map landscapes in schizophrenics, but no abnormal lateralization. Thus, information processing involved clearly aberrant neural populations in schizophrenics, different when processing one and two stimulus dimensions. The lack of lateralization in the two-dimensional task supported the view that left-temporal abnormality in schizophrenics is only one of several task-dependent aberrations.