970 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology
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2016
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Airborne Particulate Matter (PM), can get removed from the atmosphere through wet and dry mechanisms, and physically/chemically interact with materials and induce premature decay. The effect of dry depositions is a complex issue, especially for outdoor materials, because of the difficulties to collect atmospheric deposits repeatable in terms of mass and homogeneously distributed on the entire investigated substrate. In this work, to overcome these problems by eliminating the variability induced by outdoor removal mechanisms (e.g. winds and rainfalls), a new sampling system called ‘Deposition Box’, was used for PM sampling. Four surrogate materials (Cellulose Acetate, Regenerated Cellulose, Cellulose Nitrate and Aluminum) with different surfaces features were exposed in the urban-marine site of Rimini (Italy), in vertical and horizontal orientations. Homogeneous and reproducible PM deposits were obtained and different analytical techniques (IC, AAS, TOC, VP-SEM-EDX, Vis-Spectrophotometry) were employed to characterize their mass, dimension and composition. Results allowed to discriminate the mechanisms responsible of the dry deposition of atmospheric particles on surfaces with different nature and orientation and to determine which chemical species, and in which amount, tend to preferentially deposit on them. This work demonstrated that “Deposition Box” can represent an affordable tool to study dry deposition fluxes on materials and results obtained will be fundamental in order to extend this kind of exposure to actual building and heritage materials, to investigate the PM contribution in their decay.
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Increasing environmental awareness has been a significant driving force for innovations and process improvements in different sectors and the field of chemistry is not an outlier. Innovating around industrial chemical processes in line with current environmental responsibilities is however no mean feat. One of such hard to overhaul process is the production of methyl methacrylate (MMA) commonly produced via the acetone cyanohydrin (ACH) process developed back in the 1930s. Different alternatives to the ACH process have emerged over the years and the Alpha Lucite process has been particularly promising with a combined plant capacity of 370,000 metric tonnes in Singapore and Saudi Arabia. This study applied Life Cycle Assessment methodology to conduct a comparative analysis between the ACH and Lucite processes with the aim of ascertaining the effect of applying principles of green chemistry as a process improvement tool on overall environmental impacts. A further comparison was made between the Lucite process and a lab-scale process that is further improvement on the former, also based on green chemistry principles. Results showed that the Lucite process has higher impacts on resource scarcity and ecosystem health whereas the ACH process has higher impacts on human health. On the other hand, compared to the Lucite process the lab-scale process has higher impacts in both the ecosystem and human health categories with lower impacts only in the resource scarcity category. It was observed that the benefits of process improvements with green chemistry principles might not be apparent in some categories due to some limitations of the methodology. Process contribution analysis was also performed and it revealed that the contribution of energy is significant, therefore a sensitivity analysis with different energy scenarios was performed. An uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo analysis was also performed to validate the consistency of the results in each of the comparisons.
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Response surface methodology based on Box-Behnken (BBD) design was successfully applied to the optimization in the operating conditions of the electrochemical oxidation of sanitary landfill leachate aimed for making this method feasible for scale up. Landfill leachate was treated in continuous batch-recirculation system, where a dimensional stable anode (DSA(©)) coated with Ti/TiO2 and RuO2 film oxide were used. The effects of three variables, current density (milliampere per square centimeter), time of treatment (minutes), and supporting electrolyte dosage (moles per liter) upon the total organic carbon removal were evaluated. Optimized conditions were obtained for the highest desirability at 244.11 mA/cm(2), 41.78 min, and 0.07 mol/L of NaCl and 242.84 mA/cm(2), 37.07 min, and 0.07 mol/L of Na2SO4. Under the optimal conditions, 54.99 % of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and 71.07 ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) removal was achieved with NaCl and 45.50 of COD and 62.13 NH3-N with Na2SO4. A new kinetic model predicted obtained from the relation between BBD and the kinetic model was suggested.
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A proper cast is essential for a successful rehabilitation with implant prostheses, in order to produce better structures and induce less strain on the implants. The aim of this study was to evaluate the precision of four different mold filling techniques and verify an accurate methodology to evaluate these techniques. A total of 40 casts were obtained from a metallic matrix simulating three unit implant-retained prostheses. The molds were filled using four different techniques in four groups (n = 10): Group 1 - Single-portion filling technique; Group 2 - Two-step filling technique; Group 3 - Latex cylinder technique; Group 4 - Joining the implant analogs previously to the mold filling. A titanium framework was obtained and used as a reference to evaluate the marginal misfit and tension forces in each cast. Vertical misfit was measured with an optical microscope with an increase of 120 times following the single-screw test protocol. Strain was quantified using strain gauges. Data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA (Tukey's test) (α =0.05). The correlation between strain and vertical misfit was evaluated by Pearson test. The misfit values did not present statistical difference (P = 0.979), while the strain results showed statistical difference between Groups 3 and 4 (P = 0.027). The splinting technique was considered to be as efficient as the conventional technique. The strain gauge methodology was accurate for strain measurements and cast distortion evaluation. There was no correlation between strain and marginal misfit.
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The efficacy of the human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16)/HPV-18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine against cervical infections with HPV in the Papilloma Trial against Cancer in Young Adults (PATRICIA) was evaluated using a combination of the broad-spectrum L1-based SPF10 PCR-DNA enzyme immunoassay (DEIA)/line probe assay (LiPA25) system with type-specific PCRs for HPV-16 and -18. Broad-spectrum PCR assays may underestimate the presence of HPV genotypes present at relatively low concentrations in multiple infections, due to competition between genotypes. Therefore, samples were retrospectively reanalyzed using a testing algorithm incorporating the SPF10 PCR-DEIA/LiPA25 plus a novel E6-based multiplex type-specific PCR and reverse hybridization assay (MPTS12 RHA), which permits detection of a panel of nine oncogenic HPV genotypes (types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and 59). For the vaccine against HPV types 16 and 18, there was no major impact on estimates of vaccine efficacy (VE) for incident or 6-month or 12-month persistent infections when the MPTS12 RHA was included in the testing algorithm versus estimates with the protocol-specified algorithm. However, the alternative testing algorithm showed greater sensitivity than the protocol-specified algorithm for detection of some nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types. More cases were gained in the control group than in the vaccine group, leading to higher point estimates of VE for 6-month and 12-month persistent infections for the nonvaccine oncogenic types included in the MPTS12 RHA assay (types 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and 59). This post hoc analysis indicates that the per-protocol testing algorithm used in PATRICIA underestimated the VE against some nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types and that the choice of the HPV DNA testing methodology is important for the evaluation of VE in clinical trials. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT00122681.).
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The aim of this study was to develop a methodology using Raman hyperspectral imaging and chemometric methods for identification of pre- and post-blast explosive residues on banknote surfaces. The explosives studied were of military, commercial and propellant uses. After the acquisition of the hyperspectral imaging, independent component analysis (ICA) was applied to extract the pure spectra and the distribution of the corresponding image constituents. The performance of the methodology was evaluated by the explained variance and the lack of fit of the models, by comparing the ICA recovered spectra with the reference spectra using correlation coefficients and by the presence of rotational ambiguity in the ICA solutions. The methodology was applied to forensic samples to solve an automated teller machine explosion case. Independent component analysis proved to be a suitable method of resolving curves, achieving equivalent performance with the multivariate curve resolution with alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) method. At low concentrations, MCR-ALS presents some limitations, as it did not provide the correct solution. The detection limit of the methodology presented in this study was 50μgcm(-2).
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Since 1964, the Center for Geochronological Research - CPGeo, one of the interdepartmental centers of the Instituto de Geociências (IG) of São Paulo University, has developed studies related to several geological processes associated with different rock types. Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry Isotopic Dilution (ID-TIMS) has been the technique widely used in the CPGeo U-Pb Laboratory. It provides reliable and accurate results in age determination of superposed events. However, the open-system behavior such as Pb-loss, the inheritance problem and metamictization processes allow and impel us to a much richer understanding of the power and limitations of U-Pb geochronology and thermochronology. In this article, we present the current methodology used at the CPGeo-IGc-USP U-Pb laboratory, the improvements on ID-TIMS method, and report high-precision U-Pb data from zircon, monazite, epidote, titanite, baddeleyite and rutile from different rock types of several domains of the Brazilian south-southeast area, Argentina and Uruguay.
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This paper presents a, simple two dimensional frame formulation to deal with structures undergoing large motions due to dynamic actions including very thin inflatable structures, balloons. The proposed methodology is based on the minimum potential energy theorem written regarding nodal positions. Velocity, acceleration and strain are achieved directly from positions, not. displacements, characterizing the novelty of the proposed technique. A non-dimensional space is created and the deformation function (change of configuration) is written following two independent mappings from which the strain energy function is written. The classical New-mark equations are used to integrate time. Dumping and non-conservative forces are introduced into the mechanical system by a rheonomic energy function. The final formulation has the advantage of being simple and easy to teach, when compared to classical Counterparts. The behavior of a bench-mark problem (spin-up maneuver) is solved to prove the formulation regarding high circumferential speed applications. Other examples are dedicated to inflatable and very thin structures, in order to test the formulation for further analysis of three dimensional balloons.
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The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) is a chemical reaction that provokes a heterogeneous expansion of concrete and reduces important properties such as Young's modulus, leading to a reduction in the structure's useful life. In this study, a parametric model is employed to determine the spatial distribution of the concrete expansion, combining normalized factors that influence the reaction through an AAR expansion law. Optimization techniques were employed to adjust the numerical results and observations in a real structure. A three-dimensional version of the model has been implemented in a finite element commercial package (ANSYS(C)) and verified in the analysis of an accelerated mortar test. Comparisons were made between two AAR mathematical descriptions for the mechanical phenomenon, using the same methodology, and an expansion curve obtained from experiment. Some parametric studies are also presented. The numerical results compared very well with the experimental data validating the proposed method.
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It is well known that striation spacing may be related to the crack growth rate, da/dN, through Paris equation, as well as the maximum and minimum loads under service loading conditions. These loads define the load ratio, R, and are considered impossible to be evaluated from the inter-spacing striations analysis. In this way, this study discusses the methodology proposed by Furukawa to evaluate the maximum and minimum loads based on the experimental fact that the relative height of a striation, H, and the striation spacing, s, are strongly influenced by the load ratio, R. Fatigue tests in C(T) specimens were conducted on SAE 7475-T7351 Al alloy plates at room temperature and the results showed a straightforward correlation between the parameters H, s, and R. Measurements of striation height, H, were performed using scanning electron microscopy and field emission gun (FEG) after sectioning the specimen at a large inclined angle to amplify the height of the striations. The results showed that for increasing R the values of H/s tend to increase. Striation height, striation spacing, and load ratio correlations were obtained, which allows one to estimate service loadings from fatigue fracture surface survey.
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Background: Community and clinical data have suggested there is an association between trauma exposure and suicidal behavior (i.e., suicide ideation, plans and attempts). However, few studies have assessed which traumas are uniquely predictive of: the first onset of suicidal behavior, the progression from suicide ideation to plans and attempts, or the persistence of each form of suicidal behavior over time. Moreover, few data are available on such associations in developing countries. The current study addresses each of these issues. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data on trauma exposure and subsequent first onset of suicidal behavior were collected via structured interviews conducted in the households of 102,245 (age 18+) respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Bivariate and multivariate survival models tested the relationship between the type and number of traumatic events and subsequent suicidal behavior. A range of traumatic events are associated with suicidal behavior, with sexual and interpersonal violence consistently showing the strongest effects. There is a dose-response relationship between the number of traumatic events and suicide ideation/attempt; however, there is decay in the strength of the association with more events. Although a range of traumatic events are associated with the onset of suicide ideation, fewer events predict which people with suicide ideation progress to suicide plan and attempt, or the persistence of suicidal behavior over time. Associations generally are consistent across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides more detailed information than previously available on the relationship between traumatic events and suicidal behavior and indicates that this association is fairly consistent across developed and developing countries. These data reinforce the importance of psychological trauma as a major public health problem, and highlight the significance of screening for the presence and accumulation of traumatic exposures as a risk factor for suicide ideation and attempt.
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Background: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. Methods/Principal Findings: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of ""what if'' situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. Conclusion/Significance: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.
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Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.
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Background: Dermatomyositis (DM) and polymyositis (PM) are rare systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases with high fatality rates. There have been few population-based mortality studies of dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the world, and none have been conducted in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to employ multiple-cause of-death methodology in the analysis of trends in mortality related to dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1985 and 2007. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which DM or PM was listed as a cause of death. The variables sex, age and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analysis were performed by chi-square and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, variance analysis and linear regression. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 23-year period, there were 318 DM-related deaths and 316 PM-related deaths. Overall, DM/PM was designated as an underlying cause in 55.2% and as an associated cause in 44.8%; among 634 total deaths females accounted for 71.5%. During the study period, age-and gender-adjusted DM mortality rates did not change significantly, although PM as an underlying cause and total mentions of PM trended lower (p < 0.05). The mean ages at death were 47.76 +/- 20.81 years for DM and 54.24 +/- 17.94 years for PM (p = 0.0003). For DM/PM, respectively, as underlying causes, the principal associated causes of death were as follows: pneumonia (in 43.8%/33.5%); respiratory failure (in 34.4%/32.3%); interstitial pulmonary diseases and other pulmonary conditions (in 28.9%/17.6%); and septicemia (in 22.8%/15.9%). For DM/PM, respectively, as associated causes, the following were the principal underlying causes of death: respiratory disorders (in 28.3%/26.0%); circulatory disorders (in 17.4%/20.5%); neoplasms (in 16.7%/13.7%); infectious and parasitic diseases (in 11.6%/9.6%); and gastrointestinal disorders (in 8.0%/4.8%). Of the 318 DM-related deaths, 36 involved neoplasms, compared with 20 of the 316 PM-related deaths (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Our study using multiple cause of deaths found that DM/PM were identified as the underlying cause of death in only 55.2% of the deaths, indicating that both diseases were underestimated in the primary mortality statistics. We observed a predominance of deaths in women and in older individuals, as well as a trend toward stability in the mortality rates. We have confirmed that the risk of death is greater when either disease is accompanied by neoplasm, albeit to lesser degree in individuals with PM. The investigation of the underlying and associated causes of death related to DM/PM broaden the knowledge of the natural history of both diseases and could help integrate mortality data for use in the evaluation of control measures for DM/PM.