Categorization and construction of rule based systems

Expert systems have been increasingly popular for commercial importance. A rule based system is a special type of an expert system, which consists of a set of ‘if-then‘ rules and can be applied as a decision support system in many areas such as healthcare, transportation and security. Rule based systems can be constructed based on both expert knowledge and data. This paper aims to introduce the theory of rule based systems especially on categorization and construction of such systems from a conceptual point of view. This paper also introduces rule based systems for classification tasks in detail.

Cloud banding and winds in intense European cyclones: results from the DIAMET project

The DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical storms) project aims to improve forecasts of high-impact weather in extratropical cyclones through field measurements, high-resolution numerical modeling, and improved design of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation systems. This article introduces DIAMET and presents some of the first results. Four field campaigns were conducted by the project, one of which, in late 2011, coincided with an exceptionally stormy period marked by an unusually strong, zonal North Atlantic jet stream and a succession of severe windstorms in northwest Europe. As a result, December 2011 had the highest monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index (2.52) of any December in the last 60 years. Detailed observations of several of these storms were gathered using the UK’s BAe146 research aircraft and extensive ground-based measurements. As an example of the results obtained during the campaign, observations are presented of cyclone Friedhelm on 8 December 2011, when surface winds with gusts exceeding 30 m s-1 crossed central Scotland, leading to widespread disruption to transportation and electricity supply. Friedhelm deepened 44 hPa in 24 hours and developed a pronounced bent-back front wrapping around the storm center. The strongest winds at 850 hPa and the surface occurred in the southern quadrant of the storm, and detailed measurements showed these to be most intense in clear air between bands of showers. High-resolution ensemble forecasts from the Met Office showed similar features, with the strongest winds aligned in linear swaths between the bands, suggesting that there is potential for improved skill in forecasts of damaging winds.

Deficits in agency in schizophrenia, and additional deficits in body image, body schema, and internal timing, in passivity symptoms

Individuals with schizophrenia, particularly those with passivity symptoms, may not feel in control of their actions, believing them to be controlled by external agents. Cognitive operations that contribute to these symptoms may include abnormal processing in agency as well as body representations that deal with body schema and body image. However, these operations in schizophrenia are not fully understood, and the questions of general versus specific deficits in individuals with different symptom profiles remain unanswered. Using the projected-hand illusion (a digital video version of the rubber-hand illusion) with synchronous and asynchronous stroking (500 ms delay), and a hand laterality judgment task, we assessed sense of agency, body image, and body schema in 53 people with clinically stable schizophrenia (with a current, past, and no history of passivity symptoms) and 48 healthy controls. The results revealed a stable trait in schizophrenia with no difference between clinical subgroups (sense of agency) and some quantitative (specific) differences depending on the passivity symptom profile (body image and body schema). Specifically, a reduced sense of self-agency was a common feature of all clinical subgroups. However, subgroup comparisons showed that individuals with passivity symptoms (both current and past) had significantly greater deficits on tasks assessing body image and body schema, relative to the other groups. In addition, patients with current passivity symptoms failed to demonstrate the normal reduction in body illusion typically seen with a 500 ms delay in visual feedback (asynchronous condition), suggesting internal timing problems. Altogether, the results underscore self-abnormalities in schizophrenia, provide evidence for both trait abnormalities and state changes specific to passivity symptoms, and point to a role for internal timing deficits as a mechanistic explanation for external cues becoming a possible source of self-body input.

From warfare to welfare: veterans, military charities and the blurred spatiality of post-service welfare in the United Kingdom

The military offers a form of welfare-for-work but when personnel leave they lose this safety net, a loss exacerbated by the rollback neoliberalism of the contemporary welfare state. Increasingly the third sector has stepped in to address veterans’ welfare needs through operating within and across military/civilian and state/market/community spaces and cultures. In this paper we use both veterans’ and military charities’ experiences to analyse the complex politics that govern the liminal boundary zone of post-military welfare. Through exploring ‘crossing’ and ‘bridging’ we conceptualise military charities as ‘boundary subjects’, active yet dependent on the continuation of the civilian-military binary, and argue that the latter is better understood as a multidirectional, multiscalar and contextual continuum. Post-military welfare emerges as a competitive, confused and confusing assemblage that needs to be made more navigable in order to better support the ‘heroic poor’.

Before transparency: control and communication in Early-Modern Europe

Today, transparency is hailed as a key to good governance and economic efficiency, with national states implementing new laws to allow citizens access to information. It is therefore paradoxical that, as shown by a series of crises and scandals, modern governments and international agencies frequently have paid only lip-service to such ideals. Since Jeremy Bentham first introduced the concept of transparency into the language in 1789, few societal debates have sparked so much interest within the academic community, and across a variety of disciplines, using different approaches and methodologies. Within these current debates, however, one fact is striking: the lack of historical reflection about the development of the concept of transparency, both as a principle and as applied in practice, prior to its inception. Accordingly, the aim of this special issue is to contribute to historicising the ways in which communication and control over fiscal policy and state finances operated in early modern European polities.

Urban economic openness and IPO underpricing

We examine the empirical impact of trade openness on the short-run underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) using city-level real estate data. This paper represents a first attempt to employ a macroeconomic approach to explain IPO performance. We investigate an openness effect in which urban economic openness (UEO) has a significant impact on the productivity and on the prices of both direct and indirect real estate due to productivity gains of companies in more open areas. This in turn positively affects the firm’s profitability, enhancing the confidence in the local real estate market and the future company performance and decreasing the uncertainty of the IPO valuation. And as a result, we find that issuers have less incentive to underprice the IPO shares. China provides a suitable experimental ground to study the immense underpricing in developing markets, which cannot solely be accounted for by firm specific effects. First, Chinese real estate companies show strong geographic patterns focusing their businesses locally – usually at a city level. Second, we observe a degree of openness which is significantly heterogeneous across Chinese cities. Controlling for company-specific variables, location and state ownership, we find the evidence that companies whose businesses are in economically more open areas experience less IPO underpricing. Our results show high explanatory power and are robust to diverse specifications.

Health in Brazil 2 Maternal and child health in Brazil: progress and challenges

In the past three decades, Brazil has undergone rapid changes in major social determinants of health and in the organisation of health services. In this report, we examine how these changes have affected indicators of maternal health, child health, and child nutrition. We use data from vital statistics, population censuses, demographic and health surveys, and published reports. In the past three decades, infant mortality rates have reduced substantially, decreasing by 5.5% a year in the 1980s and 1990s, and by 4.4% a year since 2000 to reach 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2008. Neonatal deaths account for 68% of infant deaths. Stunting prevalence among children younger than 5 years decreased from 37% in 1974-75 to 7% in 2006-07. Regional differences in stunting and child mortality also decreased. Access to most maternal-health and child-health interventions increased sharply to almost universal coverage, and regional and socioeconomic inequalities in access to such interventions were notably reduced. The median duration of breastfeeding increased from 2.5 months in the 1970s to 14 months by 2006-07. Official statistics show stable maternal mortality ratios during the past 10 years, but modelled data indicate a yearly decrease of 4%, a trend which might not have been noticeable in official reports because of improvements in death registration and the increased number of investigations into deaths of women of reproductive age. The reasons behind Brazil`s progress include: socioeconomic and demographic changes (economic growth, reduction in income disparities between the poorest and wealthiest populations, urbanisation, improved education of women, and decreased fertility rates), interventions outside the health sector (a conditional cash transfer programme and improvements in water and sanitation), vertical health programmes in the 1980s (promotion of breastfeeding, oral rehydration, and immunisations), creation of a tax-funded national health service in 1988 (coverage of which expanded to reach the poorest areas of the country through the Family Health Program in the mid-1990s); and implementation of many national and state-wide programmes to improve child health and child nutrition and, to a lesser extent, to promote women`s health. Nevertheless, substantial challenges remain, including overmedicalisation of childbirth (nearly 50% of babies are delivered by caesarean section), maternal deaths caused by illegal abortions, and a high frequency of preterm deliveries.

Dental anxiety and trait anxiety: an investigation of their relationship

Background Anxiety related to dental treatment is a fairly common phenomenon. Some studies have shown that there is an association between dental anxiety and general fears and anxiety, neuroticism and general psychological distress. Aim This study was designed to examine the relationship between dental anxiety and trait anxiety. Subjects and methods The sample consisted of 1,030 individuals (688 women; 342 men), aged 30.8 +/- 11.7 years. The Portuguese version of Corah`s Dental Anxiety Scale (DAS) and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-T) were used. Results A statistically significant association between high DAS and high STAI-T, but not between high STAI-T and high DAS, was found. The data indicated that subjects with high dental anxiety tend to present with high trait anxiety, but high trait anxiety seems not to predispose to high dental anxiety. Conclusions Our results indicate that dental anxiety is specific, with its own features, and its development is not necessarily associated with trait anxiety.

MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX NETWORKS THROUGH THE PATH-STAR TRANSFORMATION AND OPTIMAL MULTIVARIATE METHODS

The topology of real-world complex networks, such as in transportation and communication, is always changing with time. Such changes can arise not only as a natural consequence of their growth, but also due to major modi. cations in their intrinsic organization. For instance, the network of transportation routes between cities and towns ( hence locations) of a given country undergo a major change with the progressive implementation of commercial air transportation. While the locations could be originally interconnected through highways ( paths, giving rise to geographical networks), transportation between those sites progressively shifted or was complemented by air transportation, with scale free characteristics. In the present work we introduce the path-star transformation ( in its uniform and preferential versions) as a means to model such network transformations where paths give rise to stars of connectivity. It is also shown, through optimal multivariate statistical methods (i.e. canonical projections and maximum likelihood classification) that while the US highways network adheres closely to a geographical network model, its path-star transformation yields a network whose topological properties closely resembles those of the respective airport transportation network.

Transport and tourism : a weak symbiosis. An introduction to the special issue

“Tourism’s very existence depends on transport. Still, researchers in transportation and logistics do not show much interest in tourism whereas travel and tourism researchers pay more attention to accessibility than to transport.” These were the opening sentences of the call for papers for the TTRA European Chapter Conference “Transport and Tourism: Challenges, Issues and Conflicts” held in Rotterdam and Breda, The Netherlands from 22 to 24 April 2009.

To what extent are CO2 emissions from intra-urban shopping trips by cars affected by drivers’ travel behaviour and store location?

Transportation is seen as one of the major sources of CO2 pollutants nowadays. The impact of increased transport in retailing should not be underestimated. Most previous studies have focused on transportation and underlying trips, in general, while very few studies have addressed the specific affects that, for instance, intra-city shopping trips generate. Furthermore, most of the existing methods used to estimate emission are based on macro-data designed to generate national or regional inventory projections. There is a lack of studies using micro-data based methods that are able to distinguish between driver behaviour and the locational effects induced by shopping trips, which is an important precondition for energy efficient urban planning. The aim of this study is to implement a micro-data method to estimate and compare CO2 emission induced by intra-urban car travelling to a retail destination of durable goods (DG), and non-durable goods (NDG). We estimate the emissions from aspects of travel behaviour and store location. The study is conducted by means of a case study in the city of Borlänge, where GPS tracking data on intra-urban car travel is collected from 250 households. We find that a behavioural change during a trip towards a CO2 optimal travelling by car has the potential to decrease emission to 36% (DG), and to 25% (NDG) of the emissions induced by car-travelling shopping trips today. There is also a potential of reducing CO2 emissions induced by intra-urban shopping trips due to poor location by 54%, and if the consumer selected the closest of 8 existing stores, the CO2 emissions would be reduced by 37% of the current emission induced by NDG shopping trips.

Assisted Living: The Politics of Medicaid and Medicare

In this paper I examine the structure of the current assisted living industry in order to explain how and why it is appealing and effective, as well as look at its limitations. I discuss the politics of Medicaid and Medicare, and how through these programs the federal and state governments are failing to provide adequate care for the nation’s senior population. Like the rest of our health care system, these two public health insurance systems are fragmented, and consequently, financing long-term care is complicated and insufficient. Ultimately, this paper will function as a policy report and I will propose: standardized requirements for assisted living facilities; a stricter and new way to regulate assisted living on the state level; restructured models for the public insurance programs, including Medicaid, Medicare, and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.

Insuring cleaner oceans: the economics of oil pollution prevention

The current system of controlling oil spills involves a complex relationship of international, federal and state law, which has not proven to be very effective. The multiple layers of regulation often leave shipowners unsure of the laws facing them. Furthemore, nations have had difficulty enforcing these legal requirements. This thesis deals with the role marine insurance can play within the existing system of legislation to provide a strong preventative influence that is simple and cost-effective to enforce. In principle, insurance has two ways of enforcing higher safety standards and limiting the risk of an accident occurring. The first is through the use of insurance premiums that are based on the level of care taken by the insured. This means that a person engaging in riskier behavior faces a higher insurance premium, because their actions increase the probability of an accident occurring. The second method, available to the insurer, is collectively known as cancellation provisions or underwriting clauses. These are clauses written into an insurance contract that invalidates the agreement when certain conditions are not met by the insured The problem has been that obtaining information about the behavior of an insured party requires monitoring and that incurs a cost to the insurer. The application of these principles proves to be a more complicated matter. The modern marine insurance industry is a complicated system of multiple contracts, through different insurers, that covers the many facets of oil transportation. Their business practices have resulted in policy packages that cross the neat bounds of individual, specific insurance coverage. This paper shows that insurance can improve safety standards in three general areas -crew training, hull and equipment construction and maintenance, and routing schemes and exclusionary zones. With crew, hull and equipment, underwriting clauses can be used to ensure that minimum standards are met by the insured. Premiums can then be structured to reflect the additional care taken by the insured above and beyond these minimum standards. Routing schemes are traffic flow systems applied to congested waterways, such as the entrance to New York harbor. Using natural obstacles or manmade dividers, ships are separated into two lanes of opposing traffic, similar to a road. Exclusionary zones are marine areas designated off limits to tanker traffic either because of a sensitive ecosystem or because local knowledge is required of the region to ensure safe navigation. Underwriting clauses can be used to nullify an insurance contract when a tanker is not in compliance with established exclusionary zones or routing schemes.

Fatores críticos relativos à abertura do setor de transporte de petróleo e derivados

Em decorrência do atual processo de transformação da indústria do petróleo no Brasil, iniciado com base na Nova Lei do Petróleo - Lei n° 9.478, de 6 de agosto de 1997, assim como da respectiva abertura do mercado nacional, que poderá se consolidar a partir do ano 2001, são esperadas mudanças na estrutura da cadeia petrolífera brasileira. Tais modificações deverão ser causadas pelo aumento da concorrência, como conseqüência da entrada de novos agentes no setor, bem como entre o produto nacional e o importado, caracterizando um novo cenário de cunho competitivo no mercado de derivados de petróleo. Desta forma, a importação e exportação de petróleo e seus derivados por novos agentes, associado com a movimentação destes produtos e a utilização da infra-estrutura existente para transporte e armazenagem, são questões que merecem análises e considerações, sob a ótica da regulação. Dentro deste processo em curso, é fundamental a avaliação do grau da regulação, uma vez que os mercados legais, estruturados para a competição, atuam dentro de um contexto de regras preestabelecidas e que economias de mercado totalmente desregulamentadas podem acarretar sérias desigualdades para a sociedade. Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar quais são os principais fatores críticos, de cunho administrativo e econômico, que devem ser considerados na abertura do setor de transporte de petróleo e seus derivados a outros agentes, de modo a se obter uma efetiva transição para uma economia orientada pelo mercado, dentro do novo modelo de Estado Regulador. Trata-se de uma pesquisa explicativa, por explicitar tais fatores críticos, assim como exploratória, pois é realizada em área onde existe pouco conhecimento e experiência disponível no País, bem como bibliográfica e documental, uma vez que se apoia na consulta a leis, decretos, portarias, documentos de órgãos públicos, livros, artigos etc. O processo de investigação consiste no levantamento da evolução histórica do setor, até o momento atual, na pesquisa da legislação e regulamentação em vigor, dos princípios da teoria da regulação e da experiência internacional, na análise descritiva do setor de transportes nacional, limitando-se ao transporte marítimo e dutoviário de petróleo e derivados, efetuando uma análise crítica do setor frente à Lei 9.478/97 e a abertura do mercado. O estudo identifica os fatores críticos que permitem criar as condições para o estabelecimento de um mercado orientado pela competição, ou seja, a existência de elementos básicos como oferta, demanda, acessibilidade aos serviços pela sociedade, qualidade e segurança, informação sobre preço e utilização dos produtos ou serviços e adequada fiscalização pelo Estado. Tais fatores estão associados ao acesso a informações, ao controle de tarifas, ao estabelecimento de condições de entrada e saída do mercado, ao controle da qualidade dos serviços prestados e à criação de um ambiente de transição de um regime controlado para um regime de mercado competitivo.

Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? : evidence from a large currency devaluation episode

Duas classes de modelos buscam explicar o padrão de ajustamento de preço das firmas: modelos tempo-dependente e estado-dependente. O objetivo deste trabalho é levantar algumas evidencias empíricas de modo a distinguir os modelos, ou seja, identificar de que maneira as firmas realmente precificam. Para isso, escolheu-se a grande desvalorização cambial de 1999 como principal ferramenta e ambiente de análise. A hipótese fundamental é que o choque cambial impacta significativamente o custo de algumas indústrias, em alguns casos induzindo-as a alterarem seus preço após o choque. A partir de uma imensa base de micro dados formada por preços que compõem o CPI, algumas estimações importantes como a probabilidade e a magnitude média das trocas foram levantadas. A magnitude é dada por uma média simples, enquanto a probabilidade é estimada pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. Os resultados indicam um comportamento de precificação similar ao proposto por modelos estado-dependente.