Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

The relation between action, predictability and temporal contiguity in temporal binding

Previous studies have documented a subjective temporal attraction between actions and their effects. This finding, named intentional binding, is thought to be the result of a cognitive function that links actions to their consequences. Although several studies have tried to outline the necessary and sufficient conditions for intentional binding, a quantitative comparison between the roles of temporal contiguity, predictability and voluntary action and the evaluation of their interactions is difficult due to the high variability of the temporal binding measurements. In the present study, we used a novel methodology to investigate the properties of intentional binding. Subjects judged whether an auditory stimulus, which could either be triggered by a voluntary finger lift or be presented after a visual temporal marker unrelated to any action, was presented synchronously with a reference stimulus. In three experiments, the predictability, the interval between action and consequence and the presence of action itself were manipulated. The results indicate that (1) action is a necessary condition for temporal binding; (2) a fixed interval between the two events is not sufficient to cause the effect and (3) only in the presence of voluntary action do temporal predictability and contiguity play a significant role in modulating the effect.These findings are discussed in the context of the relationship between intentional binding and temporal expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

Variação temporal da Comunidade de macroinvertebrados bentônicos em um riacho intermitente do semiárido brasileiro

In Brazilian semiarid region, the majority of water bodies are temporary and the biodiversity in these ecosystems is poorly known. The goal of this study was to describe the temporal variation of benthic macroinvertebrates in an intermittent stream in the Brazilian semiarid region. From March to July of 2009, surveys of benthic macroinvertebrates and water physiochemical parameters were done in a first order stream located at Piranhas-Açu River basin. 25 macroinvertebrates families were found, 21 belonging to Insecta class. The chironomids were the most abundant group during all study period and were represented by 19 genus. The largest densities and taxonomic richness were seen in the drying phase of the stream while the smallest values were found in the period with the heaviest rainfalls ( wet phase ). Only the families Chironomidae and Ceratopogonidae were found during all study period, suggesting that these groups have better adaptations to support floods and droughts. Furthermore, these two groups seemed to be pioneering in this stream. Among the chironomids, Paratendipes dominated the period of floods while Tanytarsus were more abundant in the drying phase . This study showed that hydrological fluctuation is the main force influencing the macroinvertebrate community in this stream, therefore, efforts seeking the conservation and management of Brazilian semiarid water bodies should consider this high natural variability in flow regime

Comparison of the Polar S810i monitor and the ECG for the analysis of heart rate variability in the time and frequency domains

The aim of the present study was to compare heart rate variability (HRV) at rest and during exercise using a temporal series obtained with the Polar S810i monitor and a signal from a LYNX® signal conditioner (BIO EMG 1000 model) with a channel configured for the acquisition of ECG signals. Fifteen healthy subjects aged 20.9 ± 1.4 years were analyzed. The subjects remained at rest for 20 min and performed exercise for another 20 min with the workload selected to achieve 60% of submaximal heart rate. RR series were obtained for each individual with a Polar S810i instrument and with an ECG analyzed with a biological signal conditioner. The HRV indices (rMSSD, pNN50, LFnu, HFnu, and LF/HF) were calculated after signal processing and analysis. The unpaired Student t-test and intraclass correlation coefficient were used for data analysis. No statistically significant differences were observed when comparing the values analyzed by means of the two devices for HRV at rest and during exercise. The intraclass correlation coefficient demonstrated satisfactory correlation between the values obtained by the devices at rest (pNN50 = 0.994; rMSSD = 0.995; LFnu = 0.978; HFnu = 0.978; LF/HF = 0.982) and during exercise (pNN50 = 0.869; rMSSD = 0.929; LFnu = 0.973; HFnu = 0.973; LF/HF = 0.942). The calculation of HRV values by means of temporal series obtained from the Polar S810i instrument appears to be as reliable as those obtained by processing the ECG signal captured with a signal conditioner.

Influência espaço-temporal e fisiológica na absorção de nutrientes e elementos tóxicos por Eichhornia crassipes visando o uso adequado da sua biomassa: o caso do Rio Apodi/Mossoró - RN

This study aims to determine the amount of nutrients and toxic elements in aquatic macrophytes of species Eichhornia crassipes present in River Apodi/Mossoró - RN and check some of the possibilities of using the biomass produced, based on the influence of space - temporal and physiological absorption of nutrients by plants. For this, was determined: Leaf area, Leaf wet mass, Leaf dry mass, Real humidity, Apparent humidity, Ash, Total nitrogen, Crude protein, Calcium, Magnesium, Potassium, Total phosphorus, Sodium, Iron, Copper, Manganese, Zinc, Nickel, Cobalt, Aluminum, Cadmium, Lead and Total chromium at different times, 2 sampling points and 2 parts of plants (leaves and roots). The results show that the levels of nutrients, protein and toxic elements present in plant tissue of Eichhornia crassipes are influenced by spatial, temporal and physiological variability. In general, because the maximum values in the dry matter for total nitrogen (4.4088 g/100g), crude protein (27.5549 g/100g), total phosphorus (0.642 g/100 g), calcium (1.444 g/100g), magnesium (0.732 g/100 g), potassium (7.51 g/100 g), copper (4.4279 mg/100g), manganese (322.668 mg/100g), sodium (1.39 g/100g), iron (194.169 mg/100g) and zinc (3.5836 mg/100g), there was the possibility of using biomass of Eichhornia crassipes for various purposes such as in food animal, products production for human consumption, organic fertilizers, fabrication of brick low cost, and crafts. For all these applications requires a control of the levels of substances in plant tissue. Based on the levels of nutrients and crude protein, the younger plants (0 Month) would be best to have their biomass used. Moreover, one factor that contributes to the use of larger plants (6 Months), the levels of toxic elements which have significantly small or below the detection limit. Therefore, further studies quantifying the biomass produced/m2 at 0 and 6 months are needed for a more correct choice for the best time of harvest

Variabilidade espacial e temporal de parâmetros físico-químicos nos rios Turvo, Preto e Grande no estado de São Paulo, Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Variabilidade temporal e espacial do tamanho de amostra da temperatura mínima do ar no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil

Com o objetivo de verificar a existência de variabilidade temporal e espacial do tamanho de amostra da temperatura mínima do ar média mensal de trinta e sete municípios do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizaram-se os dados de temperatura mínima do ar do período de 1931 a 2000. Determinou-se o tamanho de amostra da temperatura mínima do ar média mensal em cada mês e município. Realizou-se análise de agrupamento dos meses e dos municípios pelo método hierárquico vizinho mais distante. Há variabilidade do tamanho de amostra (número de anos) para a estimativa da temperatura mínima do ar média mensal no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no tempo e no espaço. Maior tamanho de amostra, no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, é necessário nos meses de maio, junho e julho, com diminuição gradativa em direção a janeiro e dezembro. Há variabilidade do tamanho de amostra entre os municípios do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the Jurumirim Reservoir, São Paulo, Brazil

Jurumirim is a large tropical reservoir with remarkable spatial gradients. This structure seems to be determined by a longitudinal gradient in the trophic conditions along the main axis of the reservoir. Nutrient-rich waters enter from the main tributary river, Paranapanema, and towards the dam there is a lacustrine zone that is deeper and more oligotrophic. Additional variability is derived from two important lateral components: the entrance of the Taquari River, the second largest tributary, bringing waters with higher pH and alkalinity; and the Ribeirão das Posses arm, a sheltered bay where the hydrodynamic conditions promote a high growth of phytoplankton. However, such a spatial pattern is not static. It can become either more defined, during the dry season (late autumn and winter), or less evident, during the expansion of the lotic conditions in the rainy period (late spring and summer). Seasonal processes of stratification/destratification determine the temporal changes in the lacustrine zone but, unlike the upstream regions, the dam zone of the reservoir seems to be little affected by periodic pulses of modifications produced by intensive rains. The presence of extensive wetlands and oxbow lagoons in the mouth zones of the main rivers also constitutes an important source of spatial variability and should be considered in the future.

Variabilidade temporal e meridional de estimativas de Satélite da concentração de clorofila superficial na plataforma continental brasileira

Forecast of biological consequences of climate changes depend on both long-term observations and the establishment of carbon budgets within pelagic ecosystems, including the assessment of biomasses and activities of all players in the global carbon cycle. Approximately 25% of oceanic primary happen over continental shelves, so these are important sites for studies of global carbon dynamics. The Brazilian Continental Shelf (BCS) has sparse and non-systematic in situ information on phytoplankton biomass, making products derived from ocean color remote sensing extremely valuable. This work analyzes chlorophyll concentration (Chl) estimated from four ocean color sensors (CZCS, OCTS, SeaWiFS and MODIS) over the BCS, to compare Chl and annual cycles meridionally. Also, useful complementary ocean color variables are presented. Chl gradients increased from the central region towards north and south, limited by estuarine plumes of Amazon and La Plata rivers, and clear annual Chl cycles appear in most areas. In southern and central areas, annual cycles show strong seasonal variability while interannual and long-term variability are equally important in the remaining areas. This is the first comparative evaluation of the Chl over the BCS and will aid the understanding of its long-term variability; essential initial step for discussions of climate changes.

Meio ambiente e saúde humana: variabilidade temporal da radiação ultravioleta e epidemiológica do câncer de pele na região oeste do Estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Variabilidade espacial e temporal de precipitação pluviométrica na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Mogi Guaçu

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Variação espacial e temporal da precipitação no estado do Pará

Estudos sobre a climatologia das precipitações no Estado do Pará são essenciais para o planejamento das atividades agrícolas. A variação da precipitação anual e sazonal no Estado do Pará foi analisada com base em séries históricas de 23 anos (1976-1998) de dados diários de chuva. A análise foi realizada para 31 localidades do Estado do Pará, sendo os resultados representados em mapas com a utilização de técnicas de sistemas de informações geográficas (SIG). A variabilidade da precipitação anual e sazonal foi caracterizada com base no coeficiente de variação e no índice de variabilidade interanual relativo. A variação desses coeficientes para a precipitação anual no Estado do Pará foi de 15 a 30%. As características mensais da estação chuvosa, em termos de início, fim e duração, foram determinadas utilizando-se o critério proposto por KASSAM (1979). A variação entre as datas de plantio precoces e tardias corresponderam aos decêndios identificados pelos dias julianos 309319 e 353363, respectivamente.