Problems in estimating the response functions of natural climatic recording systems [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution proxy records of climate, such as varves, ice cores, and tree-rings, provide the opportunity for reconstructing climate on a year-by-year basis. In order to do so it is necessary to approximate the complex nonlinear response function of the natural recording system using linear statistical models. Three problems with this approach were discussed, and possible solutions were suggested. Examples were given from a reconstruction of Santa Barbara precipitation based on tree-ring records from Santa Barbara County.

Estimating overall fish bycatch in U.S. commercial fisheries

Bycatch, or the unintended capture of fish, marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds by fishing gear, occurs to some degree in most fisheries. The recently released National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) U.S. National Bycatch Report provides information on bycatch in U.S. commercial fisheries by fishery and species. The report also provides national statistics in the form of national bycatch ratio and a national bycatch estimate. We describe the methods used to develop these statistics and compare them to similar studies. We conclude that the national bycatch ratio and national bycatch estimates developed by NMFS represent the best available information on bycatch in U.S. fisheries. However, given changes in bycatch management over time, as well as inter-annual variability in bycatch levels and a high percentage of fisheries for which data on bycatch are not currently available, we recommend that NMFS continue to support bycatch data collection and reporting efforts to improve the quality and quantity of bycatch data and estimates available to fisheries managers and scientists over time. This will enable NMFS to meet its requirements for bycatch reporting under the Magnuson-Stevens Act (MSA), as well as requirements for bycatch minimization under the MSA, Marine Mammal Protection Act, and Endangered Species Act.

Estimating the emigration rate of fish stocks from marine sanctuaries using tag-recovery data

A critical process in assessing the impact of marine sanctuaries on fish stocks is the movement of fish out into surrounding fished areas. A method is presented for estimating the yearly rate of emigration of animals from a protected (“no-take”) zone. Movement rates for exploited populations are usually inferred from tag-recovery studies, where tagged individuals are released into the sea at known locations and their location of recapture is reported by fishermen. There are three drawbacks, however, with this method of estimating movement rates: 1) if animals are tagged and released into both protected and fished areas, movement rates will be overestimated if the prohibition on recapturing tagged fish later from within the protected area is not made explicit; 2) the times of recapture are random; and 3) an unknown proportion of tagged animals are recaptured but not reported back to researchers. An estimation method is proposed which addresses these three drawbacks of tag-recovery data. An analytic formula and an associated double-hypergeometric likelihood method were derived. These two estimators of emigration rate were applied to tag recoveries from southern rock lobsters (Jasus edwardsii) released into a sanctuary and into its surrounding fished area in South Australia.

Estimating Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) abundance: crab pots and dive transects compared

Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister) were sampled with commercial pots and counted by scuba divers on benthic transects at eight sites near Glacier Bay, Alaska. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) from pots was compared to the density estimates from dives to evaluate the bias and power of the two techniques. Yearly sampling was conducted in two seasons: April and September, from 1992 to 2000. Male CPUE estimates from pots were significantly lower in April than in the following September; a step-wise regression demonstrated that season accounted for more of the variation in male CPUE than did temperature. In both April and September, pot sampling was significantly biased against females. When females were categorized as ovigerous and nonovigerous, it was clear that ovigerous females accounted for the majority of the bias because pots were not biased against nonovigerous females. We compared the power of pots and dive transects in detecting trends in populations and found that pots had much higher power than dive transects. Despite their low power, the dive transects were very useful for detecting bias in our pot sampling and in identifying the optimal times of year to sample so that pot bias could be avoided.

Estimating long-term growth-rate changes of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) from two periods of tag-return data

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) (Thunnus maccoyii) growth rates are estimated from tag-return data associated with two time periods, the 1960s and 1980s. The traditional von Bertalanffy growth model (VBG) and a two-phase VBG model were fitted to the data by maximum likelihood. The traditional VBG model did not provide an adequate representation of growth in SBT, and the two-phase VBG yielded a significantly better fit. The results indicated that significant change occurs in the pattern of growth in relation to a VBG curve during the juvenile stages of the SBT life cycle, which may be related to the transition from a tightly schooling fish that spends substantial time in near and surface shore waters to one that is found primarily in more offshore and deeper waters. The results suggest that more complex growth models should be considered for other tunas and for other species that show a marked change in habitat use with age. The likelihood surface for the two-phase VBG model was found to be bimodal and some implications of this are investigated. Significant and substantial differences were found in the growth for fish spawned in the 1960s and in the 1980s, such that after age four there is a difference of about one year in the expected age of a fish of similar length which persists over the size range for which meaningful recapture data are available. This difference may be a density-dependent response as a consequence of the marked reduction in the SBT population. Given the key role that estimates of growth have in most stock assessments, the results indicate that there is a need both for the regular monitoring of growth rates and for provisions for changes in growth over time (possibly related to changes in abundance) in the stock assessment models used for SBT and other species.

An approach to estimating rockfish biomass based on larval production, with application to Sebastes jordani

An assessment of the total biomass of shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) off the central California coast is presented that is based on a spatially extensive but temporally restricted ichthyoplankton survey conducted during the 1991 spawning season. Contemporaneous samples of adults were obtained by trawl sampling in the study region. Daily larval production (7.56 × 1010 larvae/d) and the larval mortality rate (Z=0.11/d) during the cruise were estimated from a larval “catch curve,” wherein the logarithm of total age-specific larval abundance was regressed against larval age. For this analysis, larval age compositions at each of the 150 sample sites were determined by examination of otolith microstructure from subsampled larvae (n=2203), which were weighted by the polygonal Sette-Ahlstrom area surrounding each station. Female population weight-specific fecundity was estimated through a life table analysis that incorporated sex-specific differences in adult growth rate, female maturity, fecundity, and natural mortality (M). The resulting statistic (102.17 larvae/g) was insensitive to errors in estimating M and to the pattern of recruitment. Together, the two analyses indicated that a total biomass equal to 1366 metric tons (t)/d of age-1+ shortbelly rockfish (sexes combined) was needed to account for the observed level of spawning output during the cruise. Given the long-term seasonal distribution of spawning activity in the study area, as elucidated from a retrospective examination of California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton samples from 1952 to 1984, the “daily” total biomass was expanded to an annual total of 67,392 t. An attempt to account for all sources of error in the derivation of this estimate was made by application of the delta-method, which yielded a coefficient of variation of 19%. The relatively high precision of this larval production method, and the rapidity with which an absolute biomass estimate can be obtained, establishes that, for some species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.), it is an attractive alternative to traditional age-structured stock assessments.