Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Can we disentangle predator-prey interactions from species distributions at a macro-scale? A case study with a raptor species.

There is a debate on whether an influence of biotic interactions on species distributions can be reflected at macro-scale levels. Whereas the influence of biotic interactions on spatial arrangements is beginning to be studied at local scales, similar studies at macro-scale levels are scarce. There is no example disentangling, from other similarities with related species, the influence of predator-prey interactions on species distributions at macro-scale levels. In this study we aimed to disentangle predator-prey interactions from species distribution data following an experimental approach including a factorial design. As a case of study we selected the short-toed eagle because of its known specialization on certain prey reptiles. We used presence-absence data at a 100 Km2 spatial resolution to extract the explanatory capacity of different environmental predictors (five abiotic and two biotic predictors) on the short-toed eagle species distribution in Peninsular Spain. Abiotic predictors were relevant climatic and topographic variables, and relevant biotic predictors were prey richness and forest density. In addition to the short-toed eagle, we also obtained the predictor's explanatory capacities for i) species of the same family Accipitridae (as a reference), ii) for other birds of different families (as controls) and iii) species with randomly selected presences (as null models). We run 650 models to test for similarities of the short-toed eagle, controls and null models with reference species, assessed by regressions of explanatory capacities. We found higher similarities between the short-toed eagle and other species of the family Accipitridae than for the other two groups. Once corrected by the family effect, our analyses revealed a signal of predator-prey interaction embedded in species distribution data. This result was corroborated with additional analyses testing for differences in the concordance between the distributions of different bird categories and the distributions of either prey or non-prey species of the short-toed eagle. Our analyses were useful to disentangle a signal of predator-prey interactions from species distribution data at a macro-scale. This study highlights the importance of disentangling specific features from the variation shared with a given taxonomic level.

On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

Early Entry Sawed Portland Cement Concrete Transverse Joint Ends, MLR-97-5, 2003

Experiments with early entry light sawing of Portland cement concrete (PCC) contraction joints began in Iowa in 1989. Since that time, changes in early sawing equipment have occurred as well as changes in specifications for sawing. The option to use early sawing for transverse contraction joints was specified in 1992. A problem happening occasionally with early sawing was the break out of some of the concrete around the end of the joint as the saw blade approached the edge of the slab. To prevent this, it was proposed that the sawing would terminate approximately 1/2" to 3/4" before the edge of the slab, creating a "short joint". This procedure would also leave a concrete "dam" to prevent the run-out and waste of the hot liquid joint sealant onto the shoulder. It would also eliminate the need for the labor and material for applying a duct tape dam at the open ends of each sawed joint to stop hot liquid sealant run-out Agreements were made with the contractor to apply the "short joint" technique for 1 day of paving. The evaluation and results are compared with an adjoining control section. The research found no negative aspects from sawing the "short joint". Three specific findings were noted. They are the following: 1) No joint end "blow-out" spalls of concrete occurred. 2) The need for the duct tape dam to stop liquid sealant overflow was eliminated. 3) Joint end corner spalls appear to be caused mainly by construction shouldering operations equipment. The "short joint" sawing technique can be routinely applied to early entry sawed transverse contraction joints with expectations of only positive results.

Reducing the Problem of Transverse Cracking, HR-232, 1985

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is continually improving the pavement management program and striving to reduce maintenance needs. Through a 1979 pavement management study, the Iowa DOT became a participant in a five state Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study of "Transverse Cracking of Asphalt Pavements". There were numerous conclusions and recommendations but no agreement as to the major factors contributing to transverse cracking or methods of preventing or reducing the occurrence of transverse cracking. The project did focus attention on the problem and generated ideas for research. This project is one of two state funded research projects that were a direct result of the FHWA project. Iowa DOT personnel had been monitoring temperature susceptibility of asphalt cements by the Norman McLeod Modified Penetration Index. Even though there are many variables from one asphalt mix to another, the trend seemed to indicate that the frequency of transverse cracking was highly dependent on the temperature susceptibility. Research project HR-217 "Reducing the Adverse Effects of Transverse Cracking" was initiated to verify the concept. A final report has been published after a four-year evaluation. The crack frequency with the high temperature susceptible asphalt cement was substantially greater than for the low temperature susceptible asphalt cement. An increased asphalt cement content in the asphalt treated base also reduced the crack frequency. This research on prevention of transverse cracking with fabric supports the following conclusions: 1. Engineering fabric does not prevent transverse cracking of asphalt cement concrete. 2. Engineering fabric may retard the occurrence of transverse cracking. 3. Engineering fabric does not contribute significantly to the structural capability of an asphalt concrete pavement.

Estimating the apparent transverse relaxation time (R2(*)) from images with different contrasts (ESTATICS) reduces motion artifacts.

Relaxation rates provide important information about tissue microstructure. Multi-parameter mapping (MPM) estimates multiple relaxation parameters from multi-echo FLASH acquisitions with different basic contrasts, i.e., proton density (PD), T1 or magnetization transfer (MT) weighting. Motion can particularly affect maps of the apparent transverse relaxation rate R2(*), which are derived from the signal of PD-weighted images acquired at different echo times. To address the motion artifacts, we introduce ESTATICS, which robustly estimates R2(*) from images even when acquired with different basic contrasts. ESTATICS extends the fitted signal model to account for inherent contrast differences in the PDw, T1w and MTw images. The fit was implemented as a conventional ordinary least squares optimization and as a robust fit with a small or large confidence interval. These three different implementations of ESTATICS were tested on data affected by severe motion artifacts and data with no prominent motion artifacts as determined by visual assessment or fast optical motion tracking. ESTATICS improved the quality of the R2(*) maps and reduced the coefficient of variation for both types of data-with average reductions of 30% when severe motion artifacts were present. ESTATICS can be applied to any protocol comprised of multiple 2D/3D multi-echo FLASH acquisitions as used in the general research and clinical setting.

Reducing the Adverse Effects of Transverse Cracking, HR-217, 1984

This research was initiated to identify methods of reducing the occurrence of transverse cracking. Eight (four repetitive) research sections were established to study three variations in the asphalt concrete pavement. The first variation was the comparison of low- and high-temperature-susceptible asphalt cement (AC) from two different sources. The second variable was to saw and seal transverse joints at spacings varying from 40 to 100 ft. The third variable was to increase the AC content in the asphalt treated base by 1 percent. The research sections were constructed with relatively few problems. Crack and joint surveys have been conducted on all research sections at intervals of less than 1 year since construction. No cracking was identified after the first winter season. The sawed joints also remained sealed through the first winter. At an age of approximately 1 1/2 years there was substantial cracking of the high-temperature-susceptible AC sections and substantial failure of the sealant material in the sawed joints. After almost 4 years, the asphalt pavement constructed with the high-temperature-susceptible AC produced a crack interval of 35 ft, the low-temperature-susceptible AC yielded an interval of 170 ft, and the low-temperature-susceptible AC with an increased AC content yielded an interval of 528 ft. The Pen-Vis number is an effective measure of temperature susceptibility of asphalt cements. The frequency of transverse cracking is affected by the temperature susceptibility of the AC. An increased AC content also reduces the frequency of transverse cracking.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

Longitudinal Grinding and Transverse Grooving to Improve Frictional and Profile Properties, HR-1035, 1983

There are many miles of portland cement concrete pavement in Iowa that due to normal wear, and in some cases accelerated wear from studded tires, the surface has become polished resulting in less than desirable friction values. Retexturing the surface may be an economical way to re-establish desirable friction values. Retexturing by grinding with diamond blades and transverse grooving with diamond blades are two methods of rehabilitating p.c.c. surfaces. MU Inc. of Lebanan, Tennessee proposed to provide without charge to the Iowa Department of Transportation, one 1500 ft x 12 ft section each of three methods of texturing. They are longitudinal grinding, transverse grooving and longitudinal grinding followed by transverse grooving. A section of 1500 feet is needed to properly evaluate a texturing method. It was decided by Iowa DOT personnel that due to possible differential friction it would be undesirable to texture only one lane. The decision was made to do test sections of 1500 ft x 24 ft with the cost of the additional texturing paid by the Iowa DOT. Iowa also has areas where the p.c.c. pavement has faulted at the joints and cracks which results in poor riding quality. Methods of correcting the faulting are to underseal the pavement where needed and/or grinding the surface to eliminate the faulted areas. It was decided to include in this research project a section for profiling by grinding.

Reducing the Adverse Effects of Transverse Cracking, Construction Report, HR-217, 1981

The objective of this research project was to identify a method of reducing the adverse effect of transverse cracking and to improve the performance of asphalt pavement. The research involved three variations from the contractor's planned operation. Briefly, they were: (1) use of another asphalt cement; (2) saw and seal transverse joints; and (3) increased asphalt cement content. The following conclusions were reached: (1) an improved sealant or sealing procedure is needed if transverse joints are to be used in asphalt pavements; (2) the penetration-viscosity number (PVN) is an effective measure of the temperature susceptibility of asphalt cements; (3) the use of a high temperature susceptible asphalt cement produced severe transverse cracking; (4) the use of asphalt cements with low temperature susceptibility will reduce the frequency of transverse cracking; and (5) an increased asphalt cement content in the asphalt treated base will reduce the frequency of transverse cracking.

Transverse Joint Sealing with Various Sealants, Progress Report, HR-203, 1979

The objective of this research was to evaluate the performance of portland cement concrete pavement contraction joints utilizing a variety of sealants and joint preparations and to identify an effective sealant system. The variables evaluated were: (1) sealant material; (2) joint preparation; (3) size of saw cut (sealant reservoir); and (4) the use of backing material. This progress report contains project results to date.