An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

An effective approach to verbose queries using a limited dependencies language model

Intuitively, any ‘bag of words’ approach in IR should benefit from taking term dependencies into account. Unfortunately, for years the results of exploiting such dependencies have been mixed or inconclusive. To improve the situation, this paper shows how the natural language properties of the target documents can be used to transform and enrich the term dependencies to more useful statistics. This is done in three steps. The term co-occurrence statistics of queries and documents are each represented by a Markov chain. The paper proves that such a chain is ergodic, and therefore its asymptotic behavior is unique, stationary, and independent of the initial state. Next, the stationary distribution is taken to model queries and documents, rather than their initial distributions. Finally, ranking is achieved following the customary language modeling paradigm. The main contribution of this paper is to argue why the asymptotic behavior of the document model is a better representation then just the document’s initial distribution. A secondary contribution is to investigate the practical application of this representation in case the queries become increasingly verbose. In the experiments (based on Lemur’s search engine substrate) the default query model was replaced by the stable distribution of the query. Just modeling the query this way already resulted in significant improvements over a standard language model baseline. The results were on a par or better than more sophisticated algorithms that use fine-tuned parameters or extensive training. Moreover, the more verbose the query, the more effective the approach seems to become.

Information sharing with key suppliers : a contingency approach

This paper focuses on information sharing with key suppliers and seeks to explore the factors that might influence its extent and depth. We also investigate how information sharing affects a company’s performance with regards to resource usage, output, and flexibility. Drawing from transaction cost- and contingency theories, several factors, namely environmental uncertainty, demand uncertainty, dependency and, the product life cycle stage are proposed to explain the level of information shared with key suppliers. We develop a model where information sharing mediates the (contingent) factors and company performance. A mail survey was used to collect data from Finnish and Swedish companies. Partial Least Squares analysis was separately performed for each country (n=119, n=102). There was consistent evidence that environmental uncertainty, demand uncertainty and supplier/buyer dependency had explanatory power, whereas no significance was found for the product life cycle stage. The results also confirm previous studies by providing support for a positive relationship between information sharing and performance, where output performance was found to be the most strongly related

Where do we find services in enterprise architectures? A comparative approach

In recent years, enterprise architecture (EA) has captured growing attention as a means to systematically consolidate and interrelate diverse IT artefacts in order to provide holistic decision support. Since the emergence of Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), many attempts have been made to incorporate SOA artefacts in existing EA frameworks. Yet the approaches taken to achieve this goal differ substantially for the most commonly used EA frameworks to date. This paper investigates and compares five widely used EA frameworks in the way they embrace the SOA paradigm. It identifies what SOA artefacts are considered to be in the respective EA frameworks and their relative position in the overall structure. The results show that services and related artefacts are far from being well-integrated constructs in current EA frameworks. The comparison presented in this paper will support practitioners in identifying an EA framework that provides SOA support in a way that matches their requirements and will hopefully inspire the academic EA and SOA communities to work on a closer integration of these architectures.

The professional conversation : a new approach to professional learning in early childhood education and care

In 2009, Australia celebrated the introduction of a national Early Years Learning Framework. This is a critical component in a series of educational reforms designed to support quality pedagogy and practice in early childhood education and care (ECEC) and successful transition to school. As with any policy change, success in real terms relies upon building shared understanding and the capacity of educators to apply new knowledge and support change and improved practice within their service. With these outcomes in mind, a collaborative research project is investigating the efficacy of a new approach to professional learning in ECEC: The professional conversation. This paper provides an overview of the professional conversation approach, including underpinning principles and the design and use of reflective questions to support meaningful conversation and learning.

A semantics-based approach to querying process model repositories

As business process management technology matures, organisations acquire more and more business process models. The resulting collections can consist of hundreds, even thousands of models and their management poses real challenges. One of these challenges concerns model retrieval where support should be provided for the formulation and efficient execution of business process model queries. As queries based on only structural information cannot deal with all querying requirements in practice, there should be support for queries that require knowledge of process model semantics. In this paper we formally define a process model query language that is based on semantic relationships between tasks. This query language is independent of the particular process modelling notation used, but we will demonstrate how it can be used in the context of Petri nets by showing how the semantic relationships can be determined for these nets in such a way that state space explosion is avoided as much as possible. An experiment with three large process model repositories shows that queries expressed in our language can be evaluated efficiently.

Predictive compensation for variable network delays and packet losses in networked control systems

Networked control systems (NCSs) offer many advantages over conventional control; however, they also demonstrate challenging problems such as network-induced delay and packet losses. This paper proposes an approach of predictive compensation for simultaneous network-induced delays and packet losses. Different from the majority of existing NCS control methods, the proposed approach addresses co-design of both network and controller. It also alleviates the requirements of precise process models and full understanding of NCS network dynamics. For a series of possible sensor-to-actuator delays, the controller computes a series of corresponding redundant control values. Then, it sends out those control values in a single packet to the actuator. Once receiving the control packet, the actuator measures the actual sensor-to-actuator delay and computes the control signals from the control packet. When packet dropout occurs, the actuator utilizes past control packets to generate an appropriate control signal. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through examples.

Effective shear modulus approach for two dimensional solids and plate bending problems by meshless point collocation method

For the analysis of material nonlinearity, an effective shear modulus approach based on the strain control method is proposed in this paper by using point collocation method. Hencky’s total deformation theory is used to evaluate the effective shear modulus, Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which are treated as spatial field variables. These effective properties are obtained by the strain controlled projection method in an iterative manner. To evaluate the second order derivatives of shape function at the field point, the radial basis function (RBF) in the local support domain is used. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method and comparisons have been made with analytical solutions and the finite element method (ABAQUS).

A descriptive approach for power system stability and security assessment

Power system dynamic analysis and security assessment are becoming more significant today due to increases in size and complexity from restructuring, emerging new uncertainties, integration of renewable energy sources, distributed generation, and micro grids. Precise modelling of all contributed elements/devices, understanding interactions in detail, and observing hidden dynamics using existing analysis tools/theorems are difficult, and even impossible. In this chapter, the power system is considered as a continuum and the propagated electomechanical waves initiated by faults and other random events are studied to provide a new scheme for stability investigation of a large dimensional system. For this purpose, the measured electrical indices (such as rotor angle and bus voltage) following a fault in different points among the network are used, and the behaviour of the propagated waves through the lines, nodes, and buses is analyzed. The impact of weak transmission links on a progressive electromechanical wave using energy function concept is addressed. It is also emphasized that determining severity of a disturbance/contingency accurately, without considering the related electromechanical waves, hidden dynamics, and their properties is not secure enough. Considering these phenomena takes heavy and time consuming calculation, which is not suitable for online stability assessment problems. However, using a continuum model for a power system reduces the burden of complex calculations

A child led participatory approach for technology-based intervention

There is significant interest in Human-computer interaction methods that assist in the design of applications for use by children. Many of these approaches draw upon standard HCI methods,such as personas, scenarios, and probes. However, often these techniques require communication and kinds of thinking skills that are designer centred,which prevents children with Autism Spectrum Disorders or other learning and communication disabilities from being able to participate. This study investigates methods that might be used with children with ASD or other learning and communication disabilities to inspire the design of technology based intervention approaches to support their speech and language development. Similar to Iversen and Brodersen, we argue that children with ASD should not be treated as being in some way “cognitively incomplete”. Rather they are experts in their everyday lives and we cannot design future IT without involving them. However, how do we involve them Instead of beginning with HCI methods, we draw upon easy to use technologies and methods used in the therapy professions for child engagement, particularly utilizing the approaches of Hanen (2011) and Greenspan (1998). These approaches emphasize following the child’s lead and ensuring that the child always has a legitimate turn at a detailed level of interaction. In a pilot project, we have studied a child’s interactions with their parents about activities over which they have control – photos that they have taken at school on an iPad. The iPad was simple enough for this child with ASD to use and they enjoyed taking and reviewing photos. We use this small case study as an example of a child-led approach for a child with ASD. We examine interactions from this study in order to assess the possibilities and limitations of the child-led approach for supporting the design of technology based interventions to support speech and language development.

Control, performance management systems and identification processes

Is it possible to control identities using performance management systems (PMSs)? This paper explores the theoretical fusion of management accounting and identity studies, providing a synthesised view of control, PMSs and identification processes. It argues that the effective use of PMSs generates a range of obtrusive mechanistic and unobtrusive organic controls that mediate identification processes to achieve a high level of identity congruency between individuals and collectives—groups and organisations. This paper contends that mechanistic control of PMSs provides sensebreaking effects and also creates structural conditions for sensegiving in top-down identification processes. These processes encourage individuals to continue the bottom-up processes of sensemaking, enacting identity and constructing identity narratives. Over time, PMS activities and conversations periodically mediate several episode(s) of identification to connect past, current and future identities. To explore this relationship, the dual locus of control—collectives and individuals—is emphasised to explicate their interplay. This multidisciplinary approach contributes to explaining the multidirectional effects of PMSs in obtrusive as well as unobtrusive ways, in order to control the nature of collectives and individuals in organisations.

Participatory analysis of mobile diaries to inform the design of ridesharing systems

In many “user centred design” methods, participants are used as informants to provide data but they are not involved in further analysis of that data. This paper investigates a participatory analysis approach in order to identify the strengths and weaknesses of involving participants collaboratively in the requirements analysis process. Findings show that participants are able to use information that they themselves have provided to analyse requirements and to draw upon that analysis for design, producing insights and suggestions that might not have been available otherwise to the design team. The contribution of this paper is to demonstrate an example of a participatory analysis process.