Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

Development of safety performance functions for SafetyAnalyst applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

Research-to-Practice (R2P) Tools for Improving Safety in Nighttime Highway Construction Work Zones

The safety of workers in nighttime roadway work zones has become a major concern for state transportation agencies due to the increase in the number of work zone fatalities. During the last decade, several studies have focused on the improvement of safety in nighttime roadway work zones; but the element that is still missing is a set of tools for translating the research results into practice. This paper discusses: 1) the importance of translating the research results related to the safety of workers and safety planning of nighttime work zones into practice, and 2) examples of tools that can be used for translating the results of such studies into practice. A tool that can propose safety recommendations in nighttime work zones and a web-based safety training tool for workers are presented in this paper. The tools were created as a component of a five-year research study on the assessment of the safety of nighttime roadway construction. The objectives of both tools are explained as well as their functionalities (i.e., what the tools can do for the users); their components (e.g., knowledge base, database, and interfaces); and their structures (i.e., how the components of the tools are organized to meet the objectives). Evaluations by the proposed users of each tool are also presented.

Fixed Site Amusement Rides: Who Regulates Safety?

There is currently no national regulation of fixed site (ex. roller coaster) amusement ride safety. The current regulatory system is highly fragmented and consists of many disparate efforts by State and local agencies, judicial intervention in the form of tort litigation and industry self regulatory compliance. The Federal government has no authority over fixed site ride safety. The authors review the state of fixed site ride regulation and the merits of both centralized and de-centralized regulation, including a proposed Federal statute conferring jurisdiction of the matter upon the Consumer Products Safety Commission. They conclude with proposals for enhancing the management of fixed site ride safety.

Physics-based modeling of power system components for the evaluation of low-frequency radiated electromagnetic fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system's EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter's components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

Extended Coverage for Public Safety and Critical Communications Using Multi-hop and D2D Communications

In this thesis, we proposed the use of device-to-device (D2D) communications for extending the coverage area of active base stations, for public safety communications with partial coverage. A 3GPP standard compliant D2D system level simulator is developed for HetNets and public safety scenarios and used to evaluate the performance of D2D discovery and communications underlying cellular networks. For D2D discovery, the benefits of time-domain inter-cell interference coordi- nation (ICIC) approaches by using almost blank subframes were evaluated. Also, the use of multi-hop is proposed to improve, even further, the performance of the D2D discovery process. Finally, the possibility of using multi-hop D2D communications for extending the coverage area of active base stations was evaluated. Improvements in energy and spectral efficiency, when compared with the case of direct UE-eNB communi- cations, were demonstrated. Moreover, UE power control techniques were applied to reduce the effects of interference from neighboring D2D links.

Sensemaking, safety, and situated communities in (con)temporary networks

This paper discusses the difficulties involved in managing knowledge-intensive, multinational, multiorganisational, and multifunctional project networks. The study is based on a 2-year quasi-ethnography of one such network engaged in the design and development of a complex new process control system for an existing pharmaceutical plant in Ireland. The case describes how, drawing upon the organisational heritage of the corporations involved and the logic implicit within their global partnership arrangements, the project was initially structured in an aspatial manner that underestimated the complexity of the development process and the social relations required to support it. Following dissatisfaction with initial progress, a number of critical management interventions were made, which appeared to contribute to a recasting of the network ontology that facilitated the cultivation and protection of more appropriate communicative spaces. The case emphasises the need to move away from rationalistic assumptions about communication processes within projects of this nature, towards a richer conceptualisation of such enterprises as involving collective sensemaking activities within and between situated ‘communities’ of actors. Contrary to much contemporary writing, the paper argues that space and location are of crucial importance to our understanding of network forms of organising.

Numerical Analysis on a Dual-Loop Waste Heat Recovery System Coupled with an ORC for Vehicle Applications

The internal combustion (IC) engines exploits only about 30% of the chemical energy ejected through combustion, whereas the remaining part is rejected by means of cooling system and exhausted gas. Nowadays, a major global concern is finding sustainable solutions for better fuel economy which in turn results in a decrease of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) is one of the most promising techniques to increase the overall efficiency of a vehicle system, allowing the recovery of the heat rejected by the exhaust and cooling systems. In this context, Organic Rankine Cycles (ORCs) are widely recognized as a potential technology to exploit the heat rejected by engines to produce electricity. The aim of the present paper is to investigate a WHR system, designed to collect both coolant and exhausted gas heats, coupled with an ORC cycle for vehicle applications. In particular, a coolant heat exchanger (CLT) allows the heat exchange between the water coolant and the ORC working fluid, whereas the exhausted gas heat is recovered by using a secondary circuit with diathermic oil. By using an in-house numerical model, a wide range of working conditions and ORC design parameters are investigated. In particular, the analyses are focused on the regenerator location inside the ORC circuits. Five organic fluids, working in both subcritical and supercritical conditions, have been selected in order to detect the most suitable configuration in terms of energy and exergy efficiencies.

Footbridge system identification using wireless inertial measurement units for force and response measurements

With the main focus on safety, design of structures for vibration serviceability is often overlooked or mismanaged, resulting in some high profile structures failing publicly to perform adequately under human dynamic loading due to walking, running or jumping. A standard tool to inform better design, prove fitness for purpose before entering service and design retrofits is modal testing, a procedure that typically involves acceleration measurements using an array of wired sensors and force generation using a mechanical shaker. A critical but often overlooked aspect is using input (force) to output (response) relationships to enable estimation of modal mass, which is a key parameter directly controlling vibration levels in service.

This paper describes the use of wireless inertial measurement units (IMUs), designed for biomechanics motion capture applications, for the modal testing of a 109 m footbridge. IMUs were first used for an output-only vibration survey to identify mode frequencies, shapes and damping ratios, then for simultaneous measurement of body accelerations of a human subject jumping to excite specific vibrations modes and build up bridge deck accelerations at the jumping location. Using the mode shapes and the vertical acceleration data from a suitable body landmark scaled by body mass, thus providing jumping force data, it was possible to create frequency response functions and estimate modal masses.

The modal mass estimates for this bridge were checked against estimates obtained using an instrumented hammer and known mass distributions, showing consistency among the experimental estimates. Finally, the method was used in an applied research application on a short span footbridge where the benefits of logistical and operational simplicity afforded by the highly portable and easy to use IMUs proved extremely useful for an efficient evaluation of vibration serviceability, including estimation of modal masses.

Implementation of a drive-by monitoring system for transport infrastructure utilising GNSS

Ageing and deterioration of infrastructure is a challenge facing transport authorities. In particular, there is a need for increased bridge monitoring in order to provide adequate maintenance, prioritise allocation of funds and guarantee acceptable levels of transport safety. Existing bridge structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques typically involve direct instrumentation of the bridge with sensors and equipment for the measurement of properties such as frequencies of vibration. These techniques are important as they can indicate the deterioration of the bridge condition. However, they can be labour intensive and expensive due to the requirement for on-site installations. In recent years, alternative low-cost indirect vibrationbased SHM approaches have been proposed which utilise the dynamic response of a vehicle to carry out “drive-by” pavement and/or bridge monitoring. The vehicle is fitted with sensors on its axles thus reducing the need for on-site installations. This paper investigates the use of low-cost sensors incorporating global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) for implementation of the drive-by system in practice, via field trials with an instrumented vehicle. The potential of smartphone technology to be harnessed for drive by monitoring is established, while smartphone GNSS tracking applications are found to compare favourably in terms of accuracy, cost and ease of use to professional GNSS devices.

Simulation and analysis of an emergency lowering system for crane applications

An emergency lowering system for use in safety critical crane applications is discussed. The system is used to safely lower the payload of a crane in case of an electric blackout. The system is based on a backup power source, which is used to operate the crane while the regular supply is not available. The system enables both horizontal and vertical movements of the crane. Two different configurations for building the system are described, one with an uninterruptible power source (UPS) or a diesel generator connected in parallel to the crane’s power supply and one with a customized energy storage connected to the intermediate DC-link in the crane. In order to be able to size the backup power source, the power required during emergency lowering needs to be understood. A simulation model is used to study and optimize the power used during emergency lowering. The simulation model and optimizations are verified in a test hoist. Simulation results are presented with non-optimized and optimized controls for two example applications: a paper roll crane and a steel mill ladle crane. The optimizations are found to significantly reduce the required power for the crane movements during emergency lowering.

Analysis of Policies for Safety Improvements on Low-Volume Rural Roadways,1994

In order to determine the adequacy with which safety problems on low-volume rural roadways were addressed by the four states of Federal Region VII (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska), a review was made of the states' safety policies. After reviewing literature dealing with the identification of hazardous locations, evaluation methodologies, and system-wide safety improvements, a survey of the states' safety policies was conducted. An official from each state was questioned about the various aspects and procedures dealing with safety improvements. After analyzing and comparing the remarkably diverse policies, recommendations were made in the form of a model safety program. This program included special modifications that would help remediate hazards on low-volume rural roadways. Especially encouraged is a system-wide approach to improvement which would cover all parts of the highway system, not just urban and high-volume roadways.

Automated Collection of Sign Inventory Information by Integrating Global Positioning System (GPS) with Videologging Data Collection Activities, 1995

Advances in communication, navigation and imaging technologies are expected to fundamentally change methods currently used to collect data. Electronic data interchange strategies will also minimize data handling and automatically update files at the point of capture. This report summarizes the outcome of using a multi-camera platform as a method to collect roadway inventory data. It defines basic system requirements as expressed by users, who applied these techniques and examines how the application of the technology met those needs. A sign inventory case study was used to determine the advantages of creating and maintaining the database and provides the capability to monitor performance criteria for a Safety Management System. The project identified at least 75 percent of the data elements needed for a sign inventory can be gathered by viewing a high resolution image.

Development of a Wireless MEMS Multifunction Sensor System and Field Demonstration of Embedded Sensors for Monitoring Concrete Pavements, TR-637, 2016

Pavements tend to deteriorate with time under repeated traffic and/or environmental loading. By detecting pavement distresses and damage early enough, it is possible for transportation agencies to develop more effective pavement maintenance and rehabilitation programs and thereby achieve significant cost and time savings. The structural health monitoring (SHM) concept can be considered as a systematic method for assessing the structural state of pavement infrastructure systems and documenting their condition. Over the past several years, this process has traditionally been accomplished through the use of wired sensors embedded in bridge and highway pavement. However, the use of wired sensors has limitations for long-term SHM and presents other associated cost and safety concerns. Recently, micro-electromechanical sensors and systems (MEMS) and nano-electromechanical systems (NEMS) have emerged as advanced/smart-sensing technologies with potential for cost-effective and long-term SHM. This two-pronged study evaluated the performance of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) MEMS sensors embedded in concrete pavement (Final Report Volume I) and developed a wireless MEMS multifunctional sensor system for health monitoring of concrete pavement (Final Report Volume II).