Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

Specific Silencing of the REST Target Genes in Insulin-Secreting Cells Uncovers Their Participation in Beta Cell Survival.

The absence of the transcriptional repressor RE-1 Silencing Transcription Factor (REST) in insulin-secreting beta cells is a major cue for the specific expression of a large number of genes. These REST target genes were largely ascribed to a function of neurotransmission in a neuronal context, whereas their role in pancreatic beta cells has been poorly explored. To identify their functional significance, we have generated transgenic mice expressing REST in beta cells (RIP-REST mice), and previously discovered that REST target genes are essential to insulin exocytosis. Herein we characterized a novel line of RIP-REST mice featuring diabetes. In diabetic RIP-REST mice, high levels of REST were associated with postnatal beta cell apoptosis, which resulted in gradual beta cell loss and sustained hyperglycemia in adults. Moreover, adenoviral REST transduction in INS-1E cells led to increased cell death under control conditions, and sensitized cells to death induced by cytokines. Screening for REST target genes identified several anti-apoptotic genes bearing the binding motif RE-1 that were downregulated upon REST expression in INS-1E cells, including Gjd2, Mapk8ip1, Irs2, Ptprn, and Cdk5r2. Decreased levels of Cdk5r2 in beta cells of RIP-REST mice further confirmed that it is controlled by REST, in vivo. Using siRNA-mediated knock-down in INS-1E cells, we showed that Cdk5r2 protects beta cells against cytokines and palmitate-induced apoptosis. Together, these data document that a set of REST target genes, including Cdk5r2, is important for beta cell survival.

The role of population origin and microenvironment in seedling emergence and early survival in Mediterranean maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

Understanding tree recruitment is needed to forecast future forest distribution. Many studies have reported the relevant ecological factors that affect recruitment success in trees, but the potential for genetic-based differences in recruitment has often been neglected. In this study, we established a semi-natural reciprocal sowing experiment to test for local adaptation and microenvironment effects (evaluated here by canopy cover) in the emergence and early survival of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an emblematic Mediterranean forest tree. A novel application of molecular markers was also developed to test for family selection and, thus, for potential genetic change over generations. Overall, we did not find evidence to support local adaptation at the recruitment stage in our semi-natural experiment. Moreover, only weak family selection (if any) was found, suggesting that in stressful environments with low survival, stochastic processes and among-year climate variability may drive recruitment. Nevertheless, our study revealed that, at early stages of recruitment, microenvironments may favor the population with the best adapted life strategy, irrespectively of its (local or non-local) origin. We also found that emergence time is a key factor for seedling survival in stressful Mediterranean environments. Our study highlights the complexity of the factors influencing the early stages of establishment of maritime pine and provides insights into possible management actions aimed at environmental change impact mitigation. In particular, we found that the high stochasticity of the recruitment process in stressful environments and the differences in population-specific adaptive strategies may difficult assisted migration schemes.

Influence of segmental chromosome abnormalities on survival in children over the age of 12 months with unresectable localised peripheral neuroblastic tumours without MYCN amplification.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic impact of segmental chromosome alterations (SCAs) in children older than 1 year, diagnosed with localised unresectable neuroblastoma (NB) without MYCN amplification enrolled in the European Unresectable Neuroblastoma (EUNB) protocol is still to be clarified, while, for other group of patients, the presence of SCAs is associated with poor prognosis. METHODS: To understand the role of SCAs we performed multilocus/pangenomic analysis of 98 tumour samples from patients enrolled in the EUNB protocol. RESULTS: Age at diagnosis was categorised into two groups using 18 months as the age cutoff. Significant difference in the presence of SCAs was seen in tumours of patients between 12 and 18 months and over 18 months of age at diagnosis, respectively (P=0.04). A significant correlation (P=0.03) was observed between number of SCAs per tumour and age. Event-free (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated in both age groups, according to both the presence and number of SCAs. In older patients, a poorer survival was associated with the presence of SCAs (EFS=46% vs 75%, P=0.023; OS=66.8% vs 100%, P=0.003). Moreover, OS of older patients inversely correlated with number of SCAs (P=0.002). Finally, SCAs provided additional prognostic information beyond histoprognosis, as their presence was associated with poorer OS in patients over 18 months with unfavourable International Neuroblastoma Pathology Classification (INPC) histopathology (P=0.018). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of SCAs is a negative prognostic marker that impairs outcome of patients over the age of 18 months with localised unresectable NB without MYCN amplification, especially when more than one SCA is present. Moreover, in older patients with unfavourable INPC tumour histoprognosis, the presence of SCAs significantly affects OS.

A mouse model for improving cell survival of bisected cattle embryos

Selostus: Hiiren alkio mallina solukestävyyden parantamiseksi naudan alkioiden halkaisussa

Effect of refuge supplement on Audouin's gull chick survival

One of the main threats to Audouin´s gull (Larus audouinii) at Chafarinas Islands is predation on eggs and chicks by the yellow-legged gull (Larus cachinnans). During the 1999 and 2000 breeding seasons we tested the effects of supplementary refuge availability on chick survival. Well before the laying period, nine adjacent enclosures were erected inside Audouin´s gull´s breeding grounds and some of them were supplied with artificial refuges. Our results showed significantly greater chick survival in the enclosures with artificial refuges than in control ones. In 2000, an overall lower breeding success of Audouin´s gull and a dilution of the refuge effect were observed. These results were probably related to food-shortage that year. We suggest that, along with other factors, an increase in refuge availability may significantly enhance Audouin´s gull chick survival.

Role of hepatocyte wounding on " Plasmodium " liver-stage development and survival

RESUME La première étape primordiale au cycle de vie du Plasmodium dans un hôte mammifère est l'invasion des hepatocytes par des sporozoites. L'infection finale des hepatocytes est précédée de la traversée de plusieurs cellules hôtes, rompant les membranes plasmiques et ayant comme résultat la sécrétion des facteurs cytotoliques dans le micro-environnement. Ce matériel endogène libéré est fortement stimulant/immunogène et peut servir de signal de danger initiant des réponses distinctes dans diverses cellules. De nos jours, le caractère essentiel et salutaire de la migration des sporozoites comme étape d'infection du Plasmodium est vivement controversée. Ainsi, notre étude a visé à caractériser l'effet de l'interaction du parasite avec ses cellules hôtes d'un point de vue immunologique. En particulier, nous avons voulu évaluer l'effet de la perte de matériel cellulaire pendant l'infection de Plasmodium sur les hepatocytes primaires de souris et sur des cultures cellulaires HepG2. Nous avons observé que les facteurs cytotoxiques dérivés des cellules endommagés activent NF-κB - un important régulateur de réponse inflammatoires -dans des cellules voisines des cellules endommagés, qui sont des cellules hôtes potentielles pour l'infection finale du parasite. Cette activation de NF-κB s'est produite peu de temps après l'infection et a mené in vitro et in vivo à une réduction d'infection de façon dépendante du temps, un effet qui a pu être compensé par l'addition de BAY11-7082, un inhibiteur spécifique de NF-κB. De plus, aucune activation de NF-κB avec des parasites SPECT-/-, incapables de traverser les hepatocytes, n'a été observée. Nous avons montré parla suite que l'activation de NF-κB induit l'expression de l'enzyme iNOS dans les hepatocytes, qui est responsable d'une diminution des hepatocytes infectés. En outre, les hepatocytes primaires des souris MyD88-/- n'ont montré ni activation de NF-κB, ni expression d'iNOS lors de l'infection, ce qui suggère la participation des membres de famille du Toll/IL-1 récepteur dans la reconnaissance des facteurs cytosoxiques. En effet, le manque de MyD88 a augmenté significativement l'infection in vitro et in vivo. D'autre part, un rôle bénéfique pour l'activation de NF-κB a été évalué. Les cellules infectées étaient plus résistantes contre l'apoptose induite par Fas (CD95/Apo-1) que les cellules non infectées ou les cellules infectées dans lesquelles NF-κB a été bloqué par BAY11-7082 in vitro. Paradoxalement, l'expression d'iNOS contribue à la protection des cellules infectées contre l'apoptose pax Fas, puisque le traitement avec l'inhibiteur spécifique SMT (S-methylisothiourea) a rendu les cellules infectées plus susceptibles à l'apoptose. Un effet bénéfique additionnel pour le parasite est que la plupart des cellules hôtes traversées présentent des peptides du parasite aux cellules T cytotoxiques spécifiques et peuvent donc réorienter la réaction immune spécifique sur les cellules non infectées. Nous montrons que les cellules hôtes endommagés par la migration du parasite induit l'inflammation, qui limite l'ampleur de l'infection. D'autre part, nos données soutiennent que la survie du parasite Plasmodium dans le foie est assurée par une augmentation de la résistance des hepatocytes contre l'apoptose. SUMMARY The first obligatory step of the Plasmodium life cycle in the mammalian host is the invasion of hepatocytes by sporozoites. Final hepatocyte infection involves the penetration of several host cells, whose plasma membranes are ruptured in the process, resulting in the release of cytosolic factors into the microenvironment. This released endogenous material is highly stimulatory / immunogenic and can serve as a danger signal initiating distinct responses in various cells. To date, it is highly controversial whether sporozoite migration through hepatocytes is an essential and beneficial step for Plasmodium infection. Thus, our study aimed at characterizing the effect of the interaction of the parasite with its host cells from an immunological point of view In particular, we wanted to evaluate the effect of cell material leakage during Plasmodium infection on cultured mouse primary hepatocytes and HepG2 cells. We observed that wounded cell-derived cytosolic factors activate NF-κB - a main regulator of host inflammatory responses - in cells bordering wounded cells, which are potential host cells for final parasite infection. This activation of NF-κB occurred shortly after infection and led to a reduction of infection load in a time dependent manner in vitro and in viva, an effect that could be reverted by addition of the specific NF-κB inhibitor BAY11-7082. In addition, no NF-κB activation was observed when SPECT-/- parasites, which are devoid of hepatocyte traversing properties, were used. We provide further evidence that NF-κB activation causes the induction of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) expression in hepatocytes, and this is, in turn, responsible for a decrease in Plasmodium-infected hepatocytes. Furthermore, primary hepatocytes from MyD88-/- mice showed no NF-κB activation and iNOS expression upon infection, suggesting a role of the Toll/IL-1 receptor family members in sensing cytosolic factors. Indeed, lack of MyD88 significantly increased infection in vitro and in vivo. In a further complementary series of experiments, we assessed a possible beneficial role for the activation of NF-κB. Infected cells were more resistant to Fas (CD95/Apo-1)-mediated apoptosis than uninfected cells or infected cells in which NF-κB was blocked by BAYl1-7082 in vitro. Paradoxically, iNOS expression contributes to the protection of infected cells from Fas-induced apoptosis, since treatment with the specific iNOS inhibitor SMT (S-Methylisothiourea Sulfate) rendered the infected cells more susceptible to apoptosis. An additional beneficial effect of host cell traversal for the parasite is the fact that mainly traversed cells present parasite-derived peptides to specific cytotoxic T cells and therefore may redirect the specific immune response to uninfected cells. In summary, we have shown that host cells wounded by parasite migration induce inflammation, which limits the extent of parasite infection. In addition, our data support the notion that survival of Plasmodium parasites in the liver is mediated by increasing the resistance of hepatocytes to Fas-induced apoptosis.

The essential role of radiotherapy in the treatment of Merkel cell carcinoma: a study from the Rare Cancer Network.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the role of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) in Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC). METHODS AND MATERIALS: A retrospective multicenter study was performed in 180 patients with MCC treated between February 1988 and September 2009. Patients who had had surgery alone were compared with patients who received surgery and postoperative RT or radical RT. Local relapse-free survival (LRFS), regional relapse-free survival (RRFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) rates were assessed together with disease-free survival (DFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) rates. RESULTS: Seventy-nine patients were male and 101 patients were female, and the median age was 73 years old (range, 38-93 years). The majority of patients had localized disease (n = 146), and the remaining patients had regional lymph node metastasis (n = 34). Forty-nine patients underwent surgery for the primary tumor without postoperative RT to the primary site; the other 131 patients received surgery for the primary tumor, followed by postoperative RT (n = 118) or a biopsy of the primary tumor followed by radical RT (n = 13). Median follow-up was 5 years (range, 0.2-16.5 years). Patients in the RT group had improved LRFS (93% vs. 64%; p < 0.001), RRFS (76% vs. 27%; p < 0.001), DMFS (70% vs. 42%; p = 0.01), DFS (59% vs. 4%; p < 0.001), and CSS (65% vs. 49%; p = 0.03) rates compared to patients who underwent surgery for the primary tumor alone; LRFS, RRFS, DMFS, and DFS rates remained significant with multivariable Cox regression analysis. However OS was not significantly improved by postoperative RT (56% vs. 46%; p = 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: After multivariable analysis, postoperative RT was associated with improved outcome and seems to be an important component in the multimodality treatment of MCC.

Complete and long-lasting regression of disseminated multiple skin melanoma metastases under treatment with cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor.

Experimental and clinical evidence indicates that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors may have anti-cancer activities. Here we report on a patient with a metastatic melanoma of the leg who experienced a complete and sustained regression of skin metastases upon continuous single treatment with the cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor rofecoxib. Our observations indicate that the inhibition of cyclooxygenase-2 can lead to the regression of disseminated skin melanoma metastases, even after failure of chemotherapy.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Radioimmunotherapy confers long-term survival to lymphoma patients with acceptable toxicity: registry analysis by the international radioimmunotherapy network.

The Radioimmunotherapy Network (RIT-N) is a Web-based, international registry collecting long-term observational data about radioimmunotherapy-treated patients with malignant lymphoma outside randomized clinical studies. The RIT-N collects unbiased data on treatment indications, disease stages, patients' conditions, lymphoma subtypes, and hematologic side effects of radioimmunotherapy treatment. Methods: RIT-N is located at the University of Gottingen, Germany, and collected data from 14 countries. Data were entered by investigators into a Web-based central database managed by an independent clinical research organization. Results: Patients (1,075) were enrolled from December 2006 until November 2009, and 467 patients with an observation time of at least 12 mo were included in the following analysis. Diagnoses were as follows: 58% follicular lymphoma and 42% other B-cell lymphomas. The mean overall survival was 28 mo for follicular lymphoma and 26 mo for other lymphoma subtypes. Hematotoxicity was mild for hemoglobin (World Health Organization grade II), with a median nadir of 10 g/dL, but severe (World Health Organization grade III) for platelets and leukocytes, with a median nadir of 7,000/mu L and 2.2/mu L, respectively. Conclusion: Clinical usage of radioimmunotherapy differs from the labeled indications and can be assessed by this registry, enabling analyses of outcome and toxicity data beyond clinical trials. This analysis proves that radioimmunotherapy in follicular lymphoma and other lymphoma subtypes is a safe and efficient treatment option.

Quality of care and survival of haemodialysed patients in western Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Many factors affect survival in haemodialysis (HD) patients. Our aim was to study whether quality of clinical care may affect survival in this population, when adjusted for demographic characteristics and co-morbidities. METHODS: We studied survival in 553 patients treated by chronic HD during March 2001 in 21 dialysis facilities in western Switzerland. Indicators of quality of care were established for anaemia control, calcium and phosphate product, serum albumin, pre-dialysis blood pressure (BP), type of vascular access and dialysis adequacy (spKt/V) and their baseline values were related to 3-year survival. The modified Charlson co-morbidity index (including age) and transplantation status were also considered as a predictor of survival. RESULTS: Three-year survival was obtained for 96% of the patients; 39% (211/541) of these patients had died. The 3-year survival was 50, 62 and 69%, respectively, in patients who had 0-2, 3 and >or=4 fulfilled indicators of quality of care (test for linear trend, P < 0.001). In a Cox multivariate analysis model, the absence of transplantation, a higher modified Charlson's score, decreased fulfilment of indicators of good clinical care and low pre-dialysis systolic BP were independent predictors of death. CONCLUSION: Good clinical care improves survival in HD patients, even after adjustment for availability of transplantation and co-morbidities.

Control of thrombin signaling through PI3K is a mechanism underlying plasticity between hair follicle dermal sheath and papilla cells.

In hair follicles, dermal papilla (DP) and dermal sheath (DS) cells exhibit striking levels of plasticity, as each can regenerate both cell types. Here, we show that thrombin induces a phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)-Akt pathway-dependent acquisition of DS-like properties by DP cells in vitro, involving increased proliferation rate, acquisition of ;myofibroblastic' contractile properties and a decreased capacity to sustain growth and survival of keratinocytes. The thrombin inhibitor protease nexin 1 [PN-1, also known as SERPINE2) regulates all those effects in vitro. Accordingly, the PI3K-Akt pathway is constitutively activated and expression of myofibroblastic marker smooth-muscle actin is enhanced in vivo in hair follicle dermal cells from PN-1(-/-) mice. Furthermore, physiological PN-1 disappearance and upregulation of the thrombin receptor PAR-1 (also known as F2R) during follicular regression in wild-type mice also correlate with such changes in DP cell characteristics. Our results indicate that control of thrombin signaling interferes with hair follicle dermal cells plasticity to regulate their function.

What is the influence of vaccination's routes on the regression of tumors located at mucosal sites?

Tumor-regressions following tumor-associated-antigen vaccination in animal models contrast with the limited clinical outcomes in cancer patients. Most animal studies however used subcutaneous-tumor-models and questions arise as whether these are relevant for tumors growing in mucosae; whether specific mucosal-homing instructions are required; and how this may be influenced by the tumor.