Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2005-2006

Incluye Bibliografía

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: 2014 Overview

Divergence in macro trends and in monetary policy in advanced economies was a dominant driver of rates and currencies in emerging markets in 2014. Diverging macroeconomic developments were reflected in different monetary policy actions in 2014, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) moving in the opposite direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the ECB and the BOJ step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. Latin American markets, which started the year under pressure from fears of the U.S. Federal Reserve tapering off its quantitative easing program and concerns over stability, ended 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. However, there are many signs that a slowdown in LAC financial markets – particularly debt markets, which have been breaking records in debt issuance for the past six years – is under way. The region’s growth prospects look somewhat brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region.

Cambio estructural para la igualdad: una visión integrada del desarrollo. Trigésimo cuarto período de sesiones de la CEPAL

Este documento forma parte de la "Trilogía de la Igualdad"

Economic Performance and Policies in the Caribbean

This edition puts focus on recent economic performance and policies in the Caribbean, acknowledging that ongoing challenges notwithstanding, macroeconomic indicators across the subregion are improving. Four articles will address respectively the prospects for growth, the fiscal situation, the performance of balance of payments and monetary policy and their impact.

The United States subprime mortgage crisis and its implications for the Caribbean

The bursting of the property bubble – subprime mortgage crisis – in 2007 in the United States has engendered panic, recession fears and turmoil in the global financial system. Although the United States economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2007, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter, day by day worsening scenarios emerge, from escalating oil prices, to a depreciating dollar and financial institutions’ bailout by the Federal Reserve. Many economists and policy makers share the view that a subprime-led recession – i.e. two consecutive quarters with negative growth – is inevitable and will be much deeper and longer than the 2001 dot-com downturn. Moreover, the critical situation of the financial system has driven some analysts to argue that should the monetary policy response fails to restore confidence among investors, the outcome would be the worst crisis seen since the Great Depression. This pessimism is not only among specialists. Indeed, in late March 2008 the Consumer Confidence Index in the United States recorded its lowest level since February 1992. A recession in the United States will undoubtedly have an important impact on the world economy, despite the continuous rapid growth experienced by emerging economies, particularly China and India. The purpose of this article is threefold: first, to characterize the current situation in the United States economy; second, to discuss the economic policy responses; and finally, to elaborate on how Caribbean economies may be affected.

Centroamérica y República Dominicana: evolución económica en 2015 y perspectivas para 2016. Balance preliminar

El presente documento hace un balance preliminar de las economías de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana (CARD) en 2015 y ofrece perspectivas para 2016. Es un análisis de aoyuntura elaborado por la Unidad de Desarrollo Económico de la sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México, con información disponible al 31 de enero de 2016. En primer lugar se analiza el contexto internacional, en particular los eventos que impactan directamente a las economías de CARD. En segundo término, se presentan los rasgos generales de la evolución económica de los países bajo estudio, para, en tercer lugar, hacer un análisis en materia de política fiscal, monetaria, cambiaria y comercial. En cuarto lugar, se estucia la evolución del sector externo y, por último, se analiza la actividad económica, los precios y el empleo.

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targets in Chile

Using quarterly data on the Chilean economy from 1986 to 2009, this article looks at the effect of gradual implementation of an inflation-targeting regime on exchange rate pass-through to prices. Initially, the introduction of inflation-targeting contributes to substantial reductions in the pass-through coefficient. However, in the second phase of implementation, once the monetary authority extends the policy horizon and introduces greater flexibility into the exchange rate system, the pass-through coefficient rises sharply. The findings of this study show that exchange rate pass-through to prices, in addition to being sensitive to the inflationary environment, is closely tied to the rules of the game that shape the monetary policy framework.

Crise financeira: o caso japonês

This paper aims to analyze the experience of Japan after the collapse of speculative bubbles in assets and the banking crisis in the 1990s. An analysis about the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy is conducted and the measures taken with respect to the banking sector are also discussed in this paper. The Japanese financial crisis experience suggests that the nature, speed and order in which the government implements measures determine, in large part, the magnitude and cost of the crisis. Therefore, in hindsight, it can be said that the following tasks were necessary: 1) recapitalize the banking sector; 2) restore credit; and 3) reinvigorate the economic activity through appropriate fiscal measures.

O regime de metas de inflação no Brasil: um exame teórico e empírico de seu funcionamento

The Inflation targeting regime is a concept of monetary policy which was adopted by several countries in the 90’s; Brazil being among these countries, having adopted it in 1999 after a currency crisis. With it theoretical structure regulated by the New – Classical theory and having as its main characteristic the prior announcement of a numerical target for the inflation, this regime was adopted by countries attempting to achieve a prices stability. The present project is going to explain the theoretical basis of the regime, as well as its implementation process in Brazil and the criticism it received. However, the main focus will be on the discussion of the employment of the IPCA (Consumer Price Index) as a measuring index for Brazil’s inflation

Métodos econométricos para a análise do índice de inflação no Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

O regime de metas de inflação: fundamentação teórica e abordagem empírica para o Brasil

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Da crise da dívida financeira à crise da dívida soberana: um debate sobre a Política Fiscal

The financial crisis of 2007 brought the discussion of fiscal policy. This was used as a way for governments to mitigate the potential social and economic impacts of the crisis, since only the monetary policy would not be effective. Historically, banking crises engender increases in public debt, not only for the relief operations, but also by the policies of government primary spending and/or, as in the recent crises, by the purchase of the “toxic” financial assets. The discretionary fiscal policy is then discussed, since it is essential, it is required well articulated and coordinated actions in order to mitigate their respective current and future crisis.

Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil: an institutional analysis

The paper shows the advantages and handicaps of implementing an inflation target (IT) regime, from a Post-Keynesian and, thus, an institutional stance. It is Post-Keynesian as long as it does not perceive any benefit in the mainstream split between monetary and fiscal policies. And it is institutional insofar as it assumes that there are several ways of implementing a policy, such that the chosen one is determined by historical factors, as it is illustrated by the Brazilian case. One could even support IT policies if their targets were seen just as “focusing devices” guiding economic policy, notwithstanding other targets, as, in the short run, output growth and employment and, in the long run, technology and human development. Nevertheless, an IT is not necessary, although it can be admitted, mainly if the target is hidden from the public, in order to increase the flexibility of the Central Bank.

O regime de metas de inflação no Brasil: uma análise empírica do IPCA

Inflation targeting regime is a monetary policy adopted by several countries in the 1990s, Brazil being among them, which adopted it in 1999 after a currency crisis. With a theoretical framework inspired by the new-classical theory, this regime is adopted by countries attempting to achieve price stability and it brings the prior announcement of a numerical target for inflation as a key feature. The present work aims at discussing the use of IPCA (Consumer Price Index) as a measuring index for Brazil's inflation after briefly explain the theoretical basis of the IT regime.

Paraguai 2012: o papel do Brasil e a ação da Unasul

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)