Land re-use, complexity and actor-networks: a framework for research

This paper will present a conceptual framework for the examination of land redevelopment based on a complex systems/networks approach. As Alvin Toffler insightfully noted, modern scientific enquiry has become exceptionally good at splitting problems into pieces but has forgotten how to put the pieces back together. Twenty-five years after his remarks, governments and corporations faced with the requirements of sustainability are struggling to promote an ‘integrated’ or ‘holistic’ approach to tackling problems. Despite the talk, both practice and research provide few platforms that allow for ‘joined up’ thinking and action. With socio-economic phenomena, such as land redevelopment, promising prospects open up when we assume that their constituents can make up complex systems whose emergent properties are more than the sum of the parts and whose behaviour is inherently difficult to predict. A review of previous research shows that it has mainly focused on idealised, ‘mechanical’ views of property development processes that fail to recognise in full the relationships between actors, the structures created and their emergent qualities. When reality failed to live up to the expectations of these theoretical constructs then somebody had to be blamed for it: planners, developers, politicians. However, from a ‘synthetic’ point of view the agents and networks involved in property development can be seen as constituents of structures that perform complex processes. These structures interact, forming new more complex structures and networks. Redevelopment then can be conceptualised as a process of transformation: a complex system, a ‘dissipative’ structure involving developers, planners, landowners, state agencies etc., unlocks the potential of previously used sites, transforms space towards a higher order of complexity and ‘consumes’ but also ‘creates’ different forms of capital in the process. Analysis of network relations point toward the ‘dualism’ of structure and agency in these processes of system transformation and change. Insights from actor network theory can be conjoined with notions of complexity and chaos to build an understanding of the ways in which actors actively seek to shape these structures and systems, whilst at the same time are recursively shaped by them in their strategies and actions. This approach transcends the blame game and allows for inter-disciplinary inputs to be placed within a broader explanatory framework that does away with many past dichotomies. Better understanding of the interactions between actors and the emergent qualities of the networks they form can improve our comprehension of the complex socio-spatial phenomena that redevelopment comprises. The insights that this framework provides when applied in UK institutional investment into redevelopment are considered to be significant.

A policy critique of Stansted Airport's expansion to 25 million passengers per annum (MPPA)

In this paper we undertake a preliminary assessment of the regional planning and development implications of BAA Stansted Airport’s planning permission to grow to 25 million passengers per annum (mppa) by 2010. Our concern is not simply to consider the overall growth of the airport on the airport site itself but the nature and type of growth both on- and off-site. In this document we focus on the submitted planning permission documents and test them. The methodology we employed was to draw on published and unpublished numerical estimates of the airport’s growth – particularly including estimates produced by the airport owner, BAA, and their economic and planning consultants DTZ Pieda - and critically, and systematically analyse their figures. We adopted this approach because unless the figures which were employed in the initial calculations were correct then all of the subsequent projections which flow from them - and the polices which could then be based on them – could be flawed. The analysis is divided into two parts – firstly, are the growth forecasts correct?; and secondly, what do these forecasts actually mean in developmental terms? In effect, what we have done is to produce a critique of the existing body of evidence by questioning underpinning assumptions and then draw some preliminary conclusions for the region based on this analysis. A major focus of this report has been analyse the figures involved in the planning application to expand Stansted to 25mppa. Ironically, one of our key findings, that the local impact of Stansted’s proposed expansion in employment terms might well be less than was originally thought, might make it easier to gain the acceptance of the relevant local authorities involved to allow the development to take place. Our main overall findings are that the BAA projections over-estimate the local employment impact of the airport’s proposed growth and under-estimate its potential regional ‘transportation’ employment effect. These two findings are, of course, related to each other in important ways, and we also feel that they have potentially significant medium and long-term economic, competitiveness and planning policy implications for the East of England region

Country, sector and regional factors in European property returns

For those portfolio managers who follow a top-down approach to fund management when they are trying to develop a pan-European investment strategy they need to know which are the most important factors affecting property returns, so as to concentrate their management and research efforts accordingly. In order to examine this issue this paper examines the relative importance of country, sector and regional effects in determining property returns across Europe using the largest database of individual property returns currently available. Using annual data over the period 1996 to 2002 for a sample of over 25,000 properties the results show that the country-specific effects dominate sector-specific factors, which in turn dominate the regional-specific factors. This is true even for different sub-sets of countries and sectors. In other words, real estate returns are mainly determined by local (country specific) conditions and are only mildly affected by general European factors. Thus, for those institutional investors contemplating investment into Europe the first level of analysis must be an examination of the individual countries, followed by the prospects of the property sectors within the country and then an assessment of the differences in expected performance between the main city and the rest of the country.

Changes in the relative importance of sector and regional factors: 1987-2002

A stylised fact in the real estate portfolio diversification literature is that sector (property-type) effects are relatively more important than regional (geographical) factors in determining property returns. Thus, for those portfolio managers who follow a top-down approach to portfolio management, they should first choose in which sectors to invest and then select the best properties in each market. However, the question arises as to whether the dominance of the sector effects relative to regional effects is constant. If not property fund managers will need to take account of regional effects in developing their portfolio strategy. Using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2002:12 for a sample of over 1000 properties the results show that the sector-specific factors dominate the regional-specific factors for the vast majority of the time. Nonetheless, there are periods when the regional factors are of equal or greater importance than the sector effects. In particular, the sector effects tend to dominate during volatile periods of the real estate cycle; however, during calmer periods the sector and regional effects are of equal importance. These findings suggest that the sector effects are still the most important aspect in the development of an active portfolio strategy.

Taking the LEED? Analyzing spatial variations in market penetration rates of eco-labeled properties

This paper investigates the impact of policies to promote the adoption of LEED-certified buildings across CBSA in the United States. Drawing upon a unique database that combines data from a large number of sources and using a number of regression procedures, the determinants of the proportion LEED-certified space for more than 170 CBSA in the US is modeled. LEED-certified space still accounts for a relatively small proportion of commercial stock in all markets. The average proportion is less than 1%. There is no conclusive evidence of a positive impact of policy intervention on the levels of LEED-certified space. However, after accounting for bias introduced by non-random assignment of policies, we find preliminary evidence of a positive impact of city-level green building incentives. There is a significant positive association between market size and indicators of economic vitality on proportions of LEED-certified space.

Internal rents and corporate property management: a study into the use of internal rents in UK corporate organisations

Research in the late 1980s showed that in many corporate real estates users were not fully aware of the full extent of their property holdings. In many cases, not only was the value of the holdings unknown, but there was uncertainty over the actual extent of ownership within the portfolio. This resulted in a large number of corporate occupiers reviewing their property holdings during the 1990s, initially to create a definitive asset register, but also to benefit from an more efficient use of space. Good management of corporately owned property assets is of equal importance as the management of other principal resources within the company. A comprehensive asset register can be seen as the first step towards a rational property audit. For the effective, efficient and economic delivery of services, it is vital that all property holdings are utilised to the best advantage. This requires that the property provider and the property user are both fully conversant with the value of the property holding and that an asset/internal rent/charge is made accordingly. The advantages of internal rent charging are twofold. Firstly, it requires the occupying department to “contribute” an amount to the business equivalent to the open market rental value of the space that it occupies. This prevents the treating of space as a free good and, as individual profit centres, each department will then rationalise its holdings to minimise its costs. The second advantage is from a strategic viewpoint. By charging an asset rent, the holding department can identify the performance of its real estate holdings. This can then be compared to an internal or external benchmark to help determine whether the company has adopted the most efficient tenure pattern for its properties. This paper investigates the use of internal rents by UK-based corporate businesses and explains internal rents as a form of transfer pricing in the context of management and responsibility accounting. The research finds that the majority of charging organisations introduced internal rents primarily to help calculate true profits at the business unit level. However, less than 10% of the charging organisations introduced internal rents primarily to capture the return on assets within the business. There was also a sizeable element of the market who had no plans to introduce internal rents. Here, it appears that, despite academic and professional views that internal rents are beneficial in improving the efficient use of property, opinion at the business and operational level has not universally accepted this proposition.

Business parks and town centre workplaces in England: a comparative analysis of commuting-related energy consumption

To fully appreciate the environmental impact of a workplace the transport-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from its location should be considered in addition to the emissions that result from the occupation of the building itself. Since the first one was built in the early 1980s, business parks have become a significant workplace location for service-sector workers; a sector of the economy that grew rapidly at that time as the UK manufacturing output declined and the employment base shifted to retail services and de-regulated financial services. This paper examines the transport-related CO2 emissions associated with these workplace locations in comparison to town and city centre locations. Using 2001 Census Special Workplace Statistics which record people’s residence, usual workplace and mode of transport between them, distance travelled and mode of travel were calculated for a sample of city centre and out-of-town office locations. The results reveal the extent of the difference between transport-related CO2 emitted by commuters to out-of-town and city centre locations. The implications that these findings have for monitoring the environmental performance of workplaces are discussed.

Capital market expectations and the London office market

The analysis of office market dynamics has generally concentrated on the impact of underlying fundamental demand and supply variables. This paper takes a slightly different approach to many previous examinations of rental dynamics. Within a Vector-Error-Correction framework the empirical analysis concentrates upon the impact of economic and financial variables on rents in the City of London and West End of London office markets. The impulse response and variance decomposition reveal that while lagged rental values and key demand drivers play a highly important role in the dynamics of rents, financial variables are also influential. Stock market performance not only influences the City of London market but also the West End, whilst the default spread plays an important role in recent years. It is argued that both series incorporate expectations about future economic performance and that this is the basis of their influence upon rental values.

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

The influence of office location on commuting behaviour

To fully appreciate the environmental impact of an office building, the transport-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from its location should be considered in addition to the emissions that result from the operation of the building itself. Travel-related CO2 emissions are a function of three criteria, two of which are influenced by physical location and one of which is a function of business practice. The two spatial criteria are, first, the location of the office relative to the location of the workforce, the market, complementary business activities (and the agglomeration benefits this offers) and, second, the availability and cost of transport modes. The business criterion is the need for, and therefore frequency of, visits and this, in turn, depends on the requirement for a physically present workforce and face-to-face contact with clients. This paper examines the commuting-related CO2 emissions that result from city centre and out-of-town office locations. Using 2001 Census Special Workplace Statistics which record people’s residence, usual workplace and mode of transport between them, distance travelled and mode of travel were calculated for a sample of city centre and out-of-town office locations. The results reveal the extent of the difference between transport-related CO2 emitted by commuters to out-of-town and city centre locations. The implications that these findings have for monitoring the environmental performance of offices are discussed.

Office rent determinants: a hedonic panel analysis

It has been frequently observed that office markets are subject to particularly high fluctuations in rents and vacancy levels, thus exposing real estate investors to considerable risk regarding expected future income streams. This paper analyzes the determinants of office rents and their variability over time and across sub-markets to gain insight into the rent price formation and its stability across space and over time. No support is found for the single-market hypothesis which states that arbitrage opportunities effectively align real estate pricing schemes in various parts of city. Instead, the results suggest that the importance of hedonic pricing factors varies both over time and across submarkets.

Asymmetric space market adjustment in the London office market

Models of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two cycles, and by explicit modeling of asymmetric rental response to supply and demand model. A long run structural model linking demand for office space, real rental levels and office-based employment is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Adjustment processes are seen to be asymmetric, dependent both on the direction of the supply and demand shock and on the state of the rental market at the time of the shock. A complete system of equations is estimated: unit shocks produce oscillations but there is a return to a steady equilibrium state in the long run.

Hedging effectiveness of total returns swaps: application to the Japanese market

The development of the real estate swap market offers many opportunities for investors to adjust the exposure of their portfolios to real estate. A number of OTC transactions have been observed in markets around the world. In this paper we examine the Japanese commercial real estate market from the point of view of an investor holding a portfolio of properties seeking to reduce the portfolio exposure to the real estate market by swapping an index of real estate for LIBOR. This paper explores the practicalities of hedging portfolios comprising small numbers of individual properties against an appropriate index. We use the returns from 74 properties owned by Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts over the period up to September 2007. The paper also discusses and applies the appropriate stochastic processes required to model real estate returns in this application and presents alternative ways of reporting hedging effectiveness. We find that the development of the derivative does provide the capacity for hedging market risk but that the effectiveness of the hedge varies considerably over time. We explore the factors that cause this variability.

Unlisted property funds and the emerging property markets

This paper sets out to describe the changing nature of global property investment, to provide background information regarding the nature of unlisted property funds and their managers and investors, and especially the role played by unlisted property funds in facilitating cross-border investing. In particular, it focuses on the development of unlisted funds as intermediary structures carrying institutional capital from developed to developing markets. It presents the results of new research by UK research firm Property Funds Research (PFR) and the University of Reading which explores the extent to which this new vehicle has been effective in delivering capital to emerging markets. The research relates the number of funds targetting particular countries and to population and GDP per capita. It finds that there is a very strong relationship between the popularity of a country for investment through this vehicle format and these independent variables. More interesting, perhaps, is the identification of outlier countries where the amount of investment is significantly less - or greater - than that predicted by population and GDP per capita.

The location of executive suites and business centers in the United States: an exploratory analysis

Increasingly, corporate occupiers seek more flexible ways of meeting their accommodation needs. One consequence of this process has been the growth of the executive suite, serviced office or business centre market. This paper, the final report of a research project funded by the Real Estate Research Institute, focuses upon the geographical distribution of business centers offering executive suites within the US. After a brief review of the development of the market, the paper examines the availability of data, provides basic descriptive statistics of the distribution of executive suites by state and by metropolitan statistical area and then attempts to model the distribution using demographic and socio-economic data at MSA level. The distribution reflects employment in key growth sectors and the position of the MSA in the urban hierarchy. An appendix presents a preliminary view of the global distribution of suites.