Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Pathological gambling and gender

Background and Aims: Gender differences have been reported among pathological gamblers populations. These differences concern variables such as type of gambling (men are more likely engaged in ''strategic gambling'' whereas women prefer ''non-strategic'' gambling), evolution of the gambling problem (faster progression for women) and suicidal behaviours (more attempted suicide by women). The aim of the present study is to investigate the relationship between gender and clinical status in a Swiss sample of treatment seeking pathological gamblers. Method: Prospective descriptive study of 260 new outpatients entering treatment between October 1999 and October 2007 at the Center for Excessive Gambling Studies, Lausanne, Switzerland. Data are issued from standardised medical records. Gender differences were examined (Chi-squares and ANOVAs) on interval between first gambling behaviours and first specialized treatment, interval between pathological gambling onset and first specialized treatment, purpose of consulting, type of gambling (« strategic gambling » vs « nonstrategic gambling ») and suicidality. Results and Discussion: In line with international findings, gender differences were observed on type of gambling, suicidality and interval between pathological gambling onset and first specialized treatment. A tendency emerged on interval between first gambling behaviours and first specialized treatment. As a new finding, we observed a difference on the purpose of consulting, with emotional crisis more reported by women whereas men are more likely to report familial crisis. Gender seems to be relevant in the context of pathological gambling and should be integrated in prevention and clinical strategies.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

Does Internationalization Alter the R&D-Productivity Relationship?

R&D investment is an important driver of productivity gains. However, firms differ in their ability to appropiate the returns to their R&D efforts. This paper analyses to what extent firm's internationalization influences the endogenous relation between R&D and productivity. In particular, we assess the contribution of R&D to productivity for a panel of UK firms that differ in their degree of internationalization. We find that, on average, multinationals obtain higher gains from their investment in R&D. However, the influence of internationalization on the contribution of R&D to productivity varies along the distribution of the returns to R&D. Keywords: R&D, Multinationals, Productivity. JEL Codes: C14, D24, F23.

Purification and activity standardisation of a (166m)Ho solution.

As part of a project to use the long-lived (T(1/2)=1200a) (166m)Ho as reference source in its reference ionisation chamber, IRA standardised a commercially acquired solution of this nuclide using the 4pibeta-gamma coincidence and 4pigamma (NaI) methods. The (166m)Ho solution supplied by Isotope Product Laboratories was measured to have about 5% Europium impurities (3% (154)Eu, 0.94% (152)Eu and 0.9% (155)Eu). Holmium had therefore to be separated from europium, and this was carried out by means of ion-exchange chromatography. The holmium fractions were collected without europium contamination: 162h long HPGe gamma measurements indicated no europium impurity (detection limits of 0.01% for (152)Eu and (154)Eu, and 0.03% for (155)Eu). The primary measurement of the purified (166m)Ho solution with the 4pi (PC) beta-gamma coincidence technique was carried out at three gamma energy settings: a window around the 184.4keV peak and gamma thresholds at 121.8 and 637.3keV. The results show very good self-consistency, and the activity concentration of the solution was evaluated to be 45.640+/-0.098kBq/g (0.21% with k=1). The activity concentration of this solution was also measured by integral counting with a well-type 5''x5'' NaI(Tl) detector and efficiencies computed by Monte Carlo simulations using the GEANT code. These measurements were mutually consistent, while the resulting weighted average of the 4pi NaI(Tl) method was found to agree within 0.15% with the result of the 4pibeta-gamma coincidence technique. An ampoule of this solution and the measured value of the concentration were submitted to the BIPM as a contribution to the Système International de Référence.

Intellectual outcome in children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia treated with chemotherapy alone: age- and sex-related differences.

One of the most relevant concerns in long-term survivors of paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is the development of neuropsychological sequelae. The majority of the published studies report on patients treated with chemotherapy and prophylactic central nervous system (CNS) irradiation, little is known about the outcome of patients treated with chemotherapy-only regimens. Using the standardised clinical and neuropsychological instruments of the SPOG Late Effects Study, the intellectual performance of 132 paediatric ALL patients treated with chemotherapy only was compared to that of 100 control patients surviving from diverse non-CNS solid tumours. As a group, ALL and solid tumour survivors showed normal and comparable intellectual performances (mean global IQ 104.6 in both groups). The percentage of patients in the borderline range (global IQ between 70 and 85) was comparable and not higher as expected (10% cases and 13% controls, expected 16%). Only 2 (2%) of the former ALL and 1 (1%) of the solid tumour patients were in the range of mental retardation (global IQ<70). Former known risk factors described in children treated with prophylactic CNS irradiation, like a younger age at diagnosis of ALL and female gender, remained valid in chemotherapy-only treated patients. The abandonment of prophylactic CNS irradiation and its replacement by a more intensive systemic and intrathecal chemotherapy led to a reduction, but not the disappearance of late neuropsychological sequelae.

Biofilm formation by staphylococci on fresh, fresh-frozen and processed human and bovine bone grafts.

Biofilm formation is a multi-step process influenced by surface properties. We investigated early and mature biofilm of Staphylococcus aureus on 4 different biological calcium phosphate (CaP) bone grafts used for filling bone defects. We investigated standardised cylinders of fresh and fresh-frozen human bone grafts were harvested from femoral heads; processed humanand bovine bone grafts were obtained preformed. Biofilm formation was done in tryptic soy broth (TSB) using S. aureus (ATCC 29213) with static conditions. Biofilm density after 3 h (early biofilm) and 24 h (mature biofilm) was investigated by sonication and microcalorimetry. After 3 h, bacterial density was highest on fresh-frozenandfresh bone grafts. After 24 h, biofilm density was lowest on freshbone grafts (p < 0.001) compared to the other 3 materials, which did not differ quantitatively (p > 0.05). The lowest increase in bacterial density was detected on fresh bone grafts (p < 0.001). Despite normal shaped colonies, we found additional small colonies on the surface of the fresh and fresh-frozen samples by sonication. This was also apparent in microcalorimetric heat-flow curves. The four investigated CaP bone grafts showed minor structural differences in architecture but marked differences concerning serum coverage and the content of bone marrow, fibrous tissue and bone cells. These variations resulted in a decreased biofilm density on freshand fresh-frozenbone grafts after 24 h, despite an increased early biofilm formation and might also be responsible for the variations in colony morphology (small colonies). Detection of small colony variants by microcalorimetry might be a new approach to improve the understanding of biofilm formation.

Eumelanin-based coloration and fitness parameters in birds: a meta-analysis

Although melanin is the most common pigment in animal integuments, the adaptive function of variation in melanin-based coloration remains poorly understood. The individual fitness returns associated with melanin pigments can be variable across species as these pigments can have physical and biological protective properties and genes involved in melanogenesis may vary in the intensity of pleiotropic effects. Moreover, dark and pale coloration can also enhance camouflage in alternative habitats and melanin-based coloration can be involved in social interactions. We investigated whether darker or paler individuals achieve a higher fitness in birds, a taxon wherein associations between melanin-based coloration and fitness parameters have been studied in a large number of species. A meta-analysis showed that the degree of melanin-based coloration was not significantly associated with laying date, clutch size, brood size, and survival across 26 species. Similar results were found when restricting the analyses to non-sexually dimorphic birds, colour polymorphic and monomorphic species, in passerines and non-passerines and in species for which inter-individual variation in melanism is due to colour intensity. However, eumelanic coloration was positively associated with clutch and brood size in sexually dimorphic species and those that vary in the size of black patches, respectively. Given that greater extent of melanin-based coloration was positively associated with reproductive parameters and survival in some species but negatively in other species, we conclude that in birds the sign and magnitude of selection exerted on melanin-based coloration is species- or trait-specific.

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) : A pedagogical guide for decision makers in the public sector

This guide introduces Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a performance measurement technique, in such a way as to be appropriate to decision makers with little or no background in economics and operational research. The use of mathematics is kept to a minimum. This guide therefore adopts a strong practical approach in order to allow decision makers to conduct their own efficiency analysis and to easily interpret results. DEA helps decision makers for the following reasons: - By calculating an efficiency score, it indicates if a firm is efficient or has capacity for improvement. - By setting target values for input and output, it calculates how much input must be decreased or output increased in order to become efficient. - By identifying the nature of returns to scale, it indicates if a firm has to decrease or increase its scale (or size) in order to minimize the average cost. - By identifying a set of benchmarks, it specifies which other firms' processes need to be analysed in order to improve its own practices.

Monographies on drugs, which are frequently analysed in the course of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring

In 1995 the working group "Drug Monitoring" of the Swiss Society of Clinical Chemistry (SSCC) has already published a printed version of drug monographs, which are now newly compiled and presented in a standardised manner. The aim of these monographs is to give an overview on the most important informations that are necessary in order to request a drug analysis or is helpful to interpret the results. Therefore, the targeted audience are laboratory health professionals or the receivers of the reports. There is information provided on the indication for therapeutic drug monitoring, protein binding, metabolic pathways and enzymes involved, elimination half life time and elimination routes as well as information on therapeutic or toxic concentrations. Because preanalytical considerations are of particular importance for therapeutic drug monitoring, there is also information given at which time the determination of the drug concentration is reasonable and when steady-state concentrations are reached after changing the dose. Furthermore, the stability of the drug and its metabolite(s), respectively, after blood sampling is described. For readers with a specific interest, references to important publications are given. The number of the monographs will be continuously enlarged. The updated files are presented on the homepage of the SSCC (www.sscc.ch).

The political ecology of Jatropha plantations for biodiesel in Tamil Nadu, India

Jatropha curcas is promoted internationally for its presumed agronomic viability in marginal lands, economic returns for small farmers, and lack of competition with food crops. However, empirical results from a study in southern India revealed that Jatropha cultivation, even on agricultural lands, is neither profitable, nor pro-poor. We use a political ecology framework to analyze both the discourse promoting Jatropha cultivation and its empirical consequences. We deconstruct the shaky premises of the dominant discourse of Jatropha as a “pro-poor” and “pro-wasteland” development crop, a discourse that paints a win-win picture between poverty alleviation, natural resource regeneration, and energy security goals. We then draw from field-work on Jatropha plantations in the state of Tamil Nadu to show how Jatropha cultivation favors resource-rich farmers, while possibly reinforcing existing processes of marginalization of small and marginal farmers.

Perineal stapled prolapse resection for external rectal prolapse: is it worthwhile in the long-term?

BACKGROUND: Perineal stapled prolapse (PSP) resection is a novel operation for treating external rectal prolapse. However, no long-term results have been reported in the literature. This study analyses the long-term recurrence rate, functional outcome, and morbidity associated with PSP resection. METHODS: Nine consecutive patients undergoing PSP resection between 2007 and 2011 were prospectively followed. Surgery was performed by the same surgeons in a standardised technique. Recurrence rate, functional outcome, and complication grade were prospectively assessed. RESULTS: All 9 patients undergoing PSP resection were investigated. The median age was 72 years (range 25-88 years). No intraoperative complications occurred. Faecal incontinence, preoperatively present in 2 patients, worsened postoperatively in one patient (Vaizey 18-22). One patient developed new-onset faecal incontinence (Vaizey 18). The median obstructive defecation syndrome score decreased postoperatively significantly from 11 (median; range 8-13) to 5 (median; range 4-8) (p < 0.005). At a median follow-up of 40 months (range 14-58 months), the prolapse recurrence rate was 44 % (4/9 patients). CONCLUSIONS: The PSP resection is a fast and safe procedure associated with low morbidity. However, the poor long-term functional outcome and the recurrence rate of 44 % warrant a cautious patient selection.

Infrastructures and productivity: an updated survey

The relationship between infrastructures and productivity has been the subject of an ongoing debate during the last two decades. The available empirical evidence is inconclusive and its interpretation is complicated by econometric problems that have not been fully solved. This paper surveys the relevant literature, focusing on studies that estimate aggregate production functions or growth regressions, and extracts some tentative conclusions. On the whole, my reading of the evidence is that there are sufficient indications that public infrastructure investment contributes significantly to productivity growth, at least for countries where a saturation point has not been reached. The returns to such investment are probably quite high in early stages, when infrastructures are scarce and basic networks have not been completed, but fall sharply thereafter. Hence, appropriate infrastructure provision is probably a key input for development policy, even if it does not hold the key to rapid productivity growth in advanced countries where transportation and communications needs are already adequately served.