Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation over Central Europe in a suite of high-resolution climate models

High-impact, localized intense rainfall episodes represent a major socio-economic problem for societies worldwide, and at the same time these events are notoriously difficult to simulate properly in climate models. Here, the authors investigate how horizontal resolution and model formulation influence this issue by applying the HARMONIE regional climate model (HCLIM) with three different setups; two using convection parameterization at 15 and 6.25 km horizontal resolution (the latter within the “grey-zone” scale), with lateral boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis and integrated over a pan-European domain, and one with explicit convection at 2 km resolution (HCLIM2) over the Alpine region driven by the 15 km model. Seven summer seasons were sampled and validated against two high-resolution observational data sets. All HCLIM versions underestimate the number of dry days and hours by 20-40%, and overestimate precipitation over the Alpine ridge. Also, only modest added value were found of “grey-zone” resolution. However, the single most important outcome is the substantial added value in HCLIM2 compared to the coarser model versions at sub-daily time scales. It better captures the local-to-regional spatial patterns of precipitation reflecting a more realistic representation of the local and meso-scale dynamics. Further, the duration and spatial frequency of precipitation events, as well as extremes, are closer to observations. These characteristics are key ingredients in heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods, and the outstanding results using HCLIM in convection-permitting setting are convincing and encourage further use of the model to study changes in such events in changing climates.

Determining Spatial Distribution and Physical Properties of the Vashon Advance Outwash near Mountlake Terrace, Washington

This study is aimed at determining the spatial distribution, physical properties, and groundwater conditions of the Vashon advance outwash (Qva) in the Mountlake Terrace, WA area. The Qva is correlative with the Esperance Sand, as defined at its type section; however, local variations in the Qva are not well-characterized (Mullineaux, 1965). While the Qva is a dense glacial unit with low compressibility and high frictional shear strength (Gurtowski and Boirum, 1989), the strength of this unit can be reduced when it becomes saturated (Tubbs, 1974). This can lead to caving or flowing in excavations, and on a larger scale, can lead to slope failures and mass-wasting when intersected by steep slopes. By studying the Qva, we can better predict how it will behave under certain conditions, which will be beneficial to geologists, hydrogeologists, engineers, and environmental scientists during site assessments and early phases of project planning. In this study, I use data from 27 geotechnical borings from previous field investigations and C-Tech Corporation’s EnterVol software to create three-dimensional models of the subsurface geology in the study area. These models made it possible to visualize the spatial distribution of the Qva in relation to other geologic units. I also conducted a comparative study between data from the borings and generalized published data on the spatial distribution, relative density, soil classification, grain-size distribution, moisture content, groundwater conditions, and aquifer properties of the Qva. I found that the elevation of the top of the Qva ranges from 247 to 477 ft. I found that the Qva is thickest where the modern topography is high, and is thinnest where the topography is low. The thickness of the Qva ranges from absent to 242 ft. Along the northern, east-west trending transect, the Qva thins to the east as it rises above a ridge composed of Pre- Vashon glacial deposits. Along the southern, east-west trending transect, the Qva pinches out against a ridge composed of pre-Vashon interglacial deposits. Two plausible explanations for this ridge are paleotopography and active faulting associated with the Southern Whidbey Fault Zone. Further investigations should be done using geophysical methods and the modeling methods described in this study to determine the nature of this ridge. The relative density of the Qva in the study area ranges from loose to very dense, with the loose end of the spectrum probably relating to heave in saturated sands. I found subtle correlations between density and depth. Volumetric analysis of the soil groups listed in the boring logs indicate that the Qva in the study area is composed of approximately 9.5% gravel, 89.3% sand, and 1.2% silt and clay. The natural moisture content ranges from 3.0 to 35.4% in select samples from the Qva. The moisture content appears to increase with depth and fines content. The water table in the study area ranges in elevation from 231.9 to 458 ft, based on observations and measurements recorded in the boring logs. The results from rising-head and falling-head slug tests done at a single well in the study area indicate that the geometric mean of hydraulic conductivity is 15.93 ft/d (5.62 x 10-03 cm/s), the storativity is 3.28x10-03, and the estimated transmissivity is 738.58 ft2/d in the vicinity of this observation well. At this location, there was 1.73 ft of seasonal variation in groundwater elevation between August 2014 and March 2015.

Reducing errors in simulated satellite views of clouds from large-scale models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Dynamic multi-resolution spatial object derivation for mobile and WWW applications

Online geographic information systems provide the means to extract a subset of desired spatial information from a larger remote repository. Data retrieved representing real-world geographic phenomena are then manipulated to suit the specific needs of an end-user. Often this extraction requires the derivation of representations of objects specific to a particular resolution or scale from a single original stored version. Currently standard spatial data handling techniques cannot support the multi-resolution representation of such features in a database. In this paper a methodology to store and retrieve versions of spatial objects at, different resolutions with respect to scale using standard database primitives and SQL is presented. The technique involves heavy fragmentation of spatial features that allows dynamic simplification into scale-specific object representations customised to the display resolution of the end-user's device. Experimental results comparing the new approach to traditional R-Tree indexing and external object simplification reveal the former performs notably better for mobile and WWW applications where client-side resources are limited and retrieved data loads are kept relatively small.

The evaluation of the spatial and temporal stability of sugarcane farm performance based on yield and commercial cane sugar

In broader catchment scale investigations, there is a need to understand and ultimately exploit the spatial variation of agricultural crops for an improved economic return. In many instances, this spatial variation is temporally unstable and may be different for various crop attributes and crop species. In the Australian sugar industry, the opportunity arose to evaluate the performance of 231 farms in the Tully Mill area in far north Queensland using production information on cane yield (t/ha) and CCS ( a fresh weight measure of sucrose content in the cane) accumulated over a 12-year period. Such an arrangement of data can be expressed as a 3-way array where a farm x attribute x year matrix can be evaluated and interactions considered. Two multivariate techniques, the 3-way mixture method of clustering and the 3-mode principal component analysis, were employed to identify meaningful relationships between farms that performed similarly for both cane yield and CCS. In this context, farm has a spatial component and the aim of this analysis was to determine if systematic patterns in farm performance expressed by cane yield and CCS persisted over time. There was no spatial relationship between cane yield and CCS. However, the analysis revealed that the relationship between farms was remarkably stable from one year to the next for both attributes and there was some spatial aggregation of farm performance in parts of the mill area. This finding is important, since temporally consistent spatial variation may be exploited to improve regional production. Alternatively, the putative causes of the spatial variation may be explored to enhance the understanding of sugarcane production in the wet tropics of Australia.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

A broad-scale analysis of links between coastal fisheries production and mangrove extent: A case-study for northeastern Australia

The paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries is widely accepted, but empirical evidence has been tenuous. This study showed that links between mangrove extent and coastal fisheries production could be detected for some species at a broad regional scale (1000s of kilometres) on the east coast of Queensland, Australia. The relationships between catch-per-unit-effort for different commercially caught species in four fisheries (trawl, line, net and pot fisheries) and mangrove characteristics, estimated from Landsat images were examined using multiple regression analyses. The species were categorised into three groups based on information on their life history characteristics, namely mangrove-related species (banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis, mud crabs Scylla serrata and barramundi Lates calcarifer), estuarine species (tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus, blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus and blue threadfin Eleutheronema tetradactylum) and offshore species (coral trout Plectropomus spp.). For the mangrove-related species, mangrove characteristics such as area and perimeter accounted for most of the variation in the model; for the non-mangrove estuarine species, latitude was the dominant parameter but some mangrove characteristics (e.g. mangrove perimeter) also made significant contributions to the models. In contrast, for the offshore species, latitude was the dominant variable, with no contribution from mangrove characteristics. This study also identified that finer scale spatial data for the fisheries, to enable catch information to be attributed to a particular catchment, would help to improve our understanding of relationships between mangroves and fisheries production. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale velocity structures in the Horologium-Reticulum supercluster

We present 547 optical redshifts obtained for galaxies in the region of the Horologium-Reticulum supercluster (HRS) using the 6 degrees field (6dF) multifiber spectrograph on the UK Schmidt Telescope at the Anglo-Australian Observatory. The HRS covers an area of more than 12 degrees x 12 degrees on the sky centered at approximately alpha = 03(h)19(m), delta = 50 degrees 02'. Our 6dF observations concentrate on the intercluster regions of the HRS, from which we describe four primary results. First, the HRS spans at least the redshift range from 17,000 to 22,500 km s(-1). Second, the overdensity of galaxies in the intercluster regions of the HRS in this redshift range is estimated to be 2.4, or delta rho/(rho) over bar similar to 1: 4. Third, we find a systematic trend of increasing redshift along a southeast-northwest spatial axis in the HRS, in that the mean redshift of HRS members increases by more than 1500 km s(-1) from southeast to northwest over a 12 degrees region. Fourth, the HRS is bimodal in redshift with a separation of similar to 2500 km s(-1) (35 Mpc) between the higher and lower redshift peaks. This fact is particularly evident if the above spatial-redshift trend is fitted and removed. In short, the HRS appears to consist of two components in redshift space, each one exhibiting a similar systematic spatial-redshift trend along a southeast-northwest axis. Lastly, we compare these results from the HRS with the Shapley supercluster and find similar properties and large-scale features.

A theoretical exploration of catchment-scale sediment delivery

This paper proposes a theoretical explanation of the variations of the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) versus catchment area relationships and the complex patterns in the behavior of sediment transfer processes at catchment scale. Taking into account the effects of erosion source types, deposition, and hydrological controls, we propose a simple conceptual model that consists of two linear stores arranged in series: a hillslope store that addresses transport to the nearest streams and a channel store that addresses sediment routing in the channel network. The model identifies four dimensionless scaling factors, which enable us to analyze a variety of effects on SDR estimation, including (1) interacting processes of erosion sources and deposition, (2) different temporal averaging windows, and (3) catchment runoff response. We show that the interactions between storm duration and hillslope/channel travel times are the major controls of peak-value-based sediment delivery and its spatial variations. The interplay between depositional timescales and the travel/residence times determines the spatial variations of total-volume-based SDR. In practical terms this parsimonious, minimal complexity model could provide a sound physical basis for diagnosing catchment to catchment variability of sediment transport if the proposed scaling factors can be quantified using climatic and catchment properties.

Optimal sampling strategy for estimation of spatial genetic structure in tree populations

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) in natural tree populations is largely a result of restricted pollen and seed dispersal. Understanding the link between limitations to dispersal in gene vectors and SGS is of key interest to biologists and the availability of highly variable molecular markers has facilitated fine-scale analysis of populations. However, estimation of SGS may depend strongly on the type of genetic marker and sampling strategy (of both loci and individuals). To explore sampling limits, we created a model population with simulated distributions of dominant and codominant alleles, resulting from natural regeneration with restricted gene flow. SGS estimates from subsamples (simulating collection and analysis with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and microsatellite markers) were correlated with the 'real' estimate (from the full model population). For both marker types, sampling ranges were evident, with lower limits below which estimation was poorly correlated and upper limits above which sampling became inefficient. Lower limits (correlation of 0.9) were 100 individuals, 10 loci for microsatellites and 150 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. Upper limits were 200 individuals, five loci for microsatellites and 200 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. The limits indicated by simulation were compared with data sets from real species. Instances where sampling effort had been either insufficient or inefficient were identified. The model results should form practical boundaries for studies aiming to detect SGS. However, greater sample sizes will be required in cases where SGS is weaker than for our simulated population, for example, in species with effective pollen/seed dispersal mechanisms.

Belgrade vs. Serbia: Spatial re-configurations of belonging

This article explores the relationship between the nation, the city, narratives, and belonging in Serbia through an analysis of narratives of a set of 30 interviews with young Belgrade intellectuals aged 23-35. I argue that what appears to be emerging in post-Milosevic Serbia is a new articulation and a new scale of belonging. Most of my informants are mobilising their city identities, moving from a national to an urban perspective. They imaginatively defend their city identity through a discourse that, others' its newcomers, i.e. the rural residents. However, the article is critical of their articulated dichotomous rhetoric of 'Us, the City Cosmopolitans' vs. I Them, the Rural Nationalists' My overall aim is to offer an analysis of the Serbian case, where one sees that the city of Belgrade has become a microcosm and a symbolic expression for modernity, resistance, openness and democracy. However, instead of seeing urbanity as the only locus of modernity, one needs to understand that urbanity does not one-dimensionally lead to the urbanisation of the mind, implying that once you have cities, or live in a city, there is a specific urban, cosmopolitan experience.

Modelling comminution patterns within a pilot scale AG/SAG mill

The patterns of rock comminution within tumbling mills, as well as the nature of forces, are of significant practical importance. Discrete element modelling (DEM) has been used to analyse the pattern of specific energy applied to rock, in terms of spatial distribution within a pilot AG/SAG mill. We also analysed in some detail the nature of the forces, which may result in rock comminution. In order to examine the distribution of energy applied within the mill, the DEM models were compared with measured particle mass losses, in small scale AG and SAG mill experiments. The intensity of contact stresses was estimated using the Hertz theory of elastic contacts. The results indicate that in the case of the AG mill, the highest intensity stresses and strains are likely to occur deep within the charge, and close to the base. This effect is probably more pronounced for large AG mills. In the SAG mill case, the impacts of the steel balls on the surface of the charge are likely to be the most potent. In both cases, the spatial pattern of medium-to-high energy collisions is affected by the rotational speed of the mill. Based on an assumed damage threshold for rock, in terms of specific energy introduced per single collision, the spatial pattern of productive collisions within each charge was estimated and compared with rates of mass loss. We also investigated the nature of the comminution process within AG vs. SAG mill, in order to explain the observed differences in energy utilisation efficiency, between two types of milling. All experiments were performed using a laboratory scale mill of 1.19 m diameter and 0.31 m length, equipped with 14 square section lifters of height 40 mm. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional-scale, fully coupled modelling of stream-aquifer interaction in a tropical catchment

The planning and management of water resources in the Pioneer Valley, north-eastern Australia requires a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream abstractions on water supply reliabilities and environmental flows in Sandy Creek (the main surface water system studied). Consequently, a fully coupled stream-aquifer model has been constructed using the code MODHMS, calibrated to near-stream observations of watertable behaviour and multiple components of gauged stream flow. This model has been tested using other methods of estimation, including stream depletion analysis and radon isotope tracer sampling. The coarseness of spatial discretisation, which is required for practical reasons of computational efficiency, limits the model's capacity to simulate small-scale processes (e.g., near-stream groundwater pumping, bank storage effects), and alternative approaches are required to complement the model's range of applicability. Model predictions of groundwater influx to Sandy Creek are compared with baseflow estimates from three different hydrograph separation techniques, which were found to be unable to reflect the dynamics of Sandy Creek stream-aquifer interactions. The model was also used to infer changes in the water balance of the system caused by historical land use change. This led to constraints on the recharge distribution which can be implemented to improve model calibration performance. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ross River virus disease clusters and spatial relationship with mosquito biting exposure in Redland Shire, southern Queensland, Australia

The spatial heterogeneity in the risk of Ross River virus (family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus, RRV) disease, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, was examined in Redland Shire in southern Queensland, Australia. Disease cases, complaints from residents of intense mosquito biting exposure, and human population data were mapped using a geographic information system. Surface maps of RRV disease age-sex standardized morbidity ratios and mosquito biting complaint morbidity ratios were created. To determine whether there was significant spatial variation in disease and complaint patterns, a spatial scan analysis method was used to test whether the number of cases and complaints was distributed according to underlying population at risk. Several noncontiguous areas in proximity to productive saline water habitats of Aedes vigilax (Skuse), a recognized vector of RRV, had higher than expected numbers of RRV disease cases and complaints. Disease rates in human populations in areas which had high numbers of adult Ae. vigilax in carbon dioxide- and octenol-baited light traps were up to 2.9 times those in areas that rarely had high numbers of mosquitoes. It was estimated that targeted control of adult Ae. vigilax in these high-risk areas could potentially reduce the RRV disease incidence by an average of 13.6%. Spatial correlation was found between RRV disease risk and complaints from residents of mosquito biting. Based on historical patterns of RRV transmission throughout Redland Shire and estimated future human population growth in areas with higher than average RRV disease incidence, it was estimated that RRV incidence rates will increase by 8% between 2001 and 2021. The use of arbitrary administrative areas that ranged in size from 4.6 to 318.3 km2, has the potential to mask any small scale heterogeneity in disease patterns. With the availability of georeferenced data sets and high-resolution imagery, it is becoming more feasible to undertake spatial analyses at relatively small scales.