A catchment modelling approach integrating surface and groundwater processes, land use and distribution of nutrients : Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland

As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.

Integrated coastal zone management and sustainable development of coastal area : a short overview of international legal framework

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction ICZM and sustainable development of coastal zone International legal framework for ICZM Implementation of international legal obligations in domestic arena Concluding remarks References

Regeneration reuse in the context of the waste management cycle of the built environment

This original study creates a philosophy of regeneration reuse, which is a conceptual framework that utilises construction and demolition waste products by building component, relocation and adaptive reuse. Case studies from the greater Brisbane, wider southeast Queensland region and greater London area are used to demonstrate the principles of regeneration reuse through research activities, analysis and evaluation. The regeneration reuse conceptual process draws upon assessing embodied carbon and sustainable benefits to deconstruct rather than destruct, and consider alternative options to waste treatment technologies in the built environment. The importance of waste management is examined, specifically the impacts of governance to the principles of regeneration reuse through analysis of legislation in the Australian and UK jurisdictions. Design process considerations when incorporating the principles of regeneration reuse are defined, and phasing and staging assessment explored to determine the most effective point of intervention in the design process to include waste management strategies.

The artful life story : the oral history interview as fiction

This practice-led PhD project consists of two parts. The first is an exegesis documenting how a fiction writer can enter a dialogue with the oral history project in Australia. I identify two philosophical mandates of the oral history project in Australia that have shaped my creative practice: an emphasis on the analysis of the interviewee’s subjective experience as a means of understanding the past, and the desire to engage a wide audience in order to promote empathy towards the subject. The discussion around fiction in the oral history project is in its infancy. In order to deepen the debate, I draw on the more mature discussion in ethnographic fiction. I rely on literary theorists Steven Greenblatt, Dorrit Cohn and Gerard Genette to develop a clear understanding of the distinct narrative qualities of fiction, in order to explore how fiction can re-present and explore an interviewee’s subjective experience, and engage a wide readership. I document my own methodology for producing a work of fiction that is enriched by oral history methodology and theory, and responds to the mandates of the project. I demonstrate the means by which fiction and the oral history project can enter a dialogue in the truest sense of the word: a two-way conversation that enriches and augments practice in both fields. The second part of the PhD is a novel, set in Brisbane and based on oral history interviews and archival material I gathered over the course of the project. The novel centres on Brisbane artist Evelyn, who has been given an impossible task: a derelict old house is about to be demolished, and she must capture its history in a sculpture that will be built on the site. Evelyn struggles to come up with ideas and create the sculpture, realising that she has no way to discover who inhabited the house. What follows is a series of stories, each set in a different era in Brisbane’s history, which take the reader backwards through the house’s history. Hidden Objects is a novel about the impossibility of grasping the past and the powerful pull of storytelling. The novel is an experiment in a hybrid form and is accompanied by an appendix that identifies the historically accurate sources informing the fiction. The decisions about the aesthetics of the novel were a direct result of my engagement with the mandates of the oral history project in Australia. The novel was shortlisted in the 2012 Queensland Literary Awards, unpublished manuscript category.

Use of thermal imaging in sports medicine research : a short report

The assessment of skin temperature (Tsk) in athletic therapy and sports medicine research is an extremely important physiological outcome measure.Various methodsof recording Tsk, including thermistors, thermocouples and thermocrons are currently being used for research purposes. These techniques are constrained by their wires limiting the freedom of the subject, slow response times, and/or sensors falling off. Furthermore, as these products typically are directly attached to the skin and cover the measurement site, their validity may be questionable.This manuscript addresses the use and potential benefits of using thermal imaging (TI) in sport medicine research.Non-contact infrared TI offers a quick, non-invasive, portable and athlete-friendly method of assessing Tsk. TI is a useful Tsk diagnostic tool that has potential to be an integral part of sport medicine research in the future. Furthermore, as the technique is non-contact it has several advantages over existing methods of recording skin temperature

Review : "Ghosts...of the Civil Dead" -- John Hillcoat

Synopsis and review of the Australian prison film Ghosts...of the Civil Dead (John Hillcoat, 1988). Drawing heavily from the book In the Belly of the Beast by American author and long-term prisoner Jack Henry Abbott, as well as from the historical and philosophical work of Michel Foucault (the credits include ‘Foucault Authority – Simon During’), Ghosts… Of the Civil Dead is a searing critique of the so-called ‘new generation’ prison system developed in the United States and recently introduced in Australia. Director John Hillcoat and producer Evan English conducted extensive research for the film, including spending time at the National Institute of Corrections, a think tank in Colorado, and visiting numerous institutions like the ‘new Alcatraz’ at Marion Illinois and other maximum security prisons across the United States. Using a mix of professionals and non-actors, including former prisoners and prison guards, the ‘story’ was workshopped during a lengthy rehearsal period with many actual events and experiences of participants incorporated into the film. The end result deliberately blurs the line between American and Australian prison experience to make the political point that what had happened in the US – from where many events and characters, and much of the architecture and design of the prison are drawn – was beginning to happen in Australia. The film emphasises the vicious cycle of institutionalisation, and highlights the role state authorities play in manufacturing, provoking and manipulating violence and fear both in prisons and in wider society as a means to augment policing and surveillance of the population, to oppress the working classes, and to maintain the political status quo...

In-cylinder pressure and inter-cycle variability analysis for a compression ignition engine : Bayesian approaches

This thesis introduced Bayesian statistics as an analysis technique to isolate resonant frequency information in in-cylinder pressure signals taken from internal combustion engines. Applications of these techniques are relevant to engine design (performance and noise), energy conservation (fuel consumption) and alternative fuel evaluation. The use of Bayesian statistics, over traditional techniques, allowed for a more in-depth investigation into previously difficult to isolate engine parameters on a cycle-by-cycle basis. Specifically, these techniques facilitated the determination of the start of pre-mixed and diffusion combustion and for the in-cylinder temperature profile to be resolved on individual consecutive engine cycles. Dr Bodisco further showed the utility of the Bayesian analysis techniques by applying them to in-cylinder pressure signals taken from a compression ignition engine run with fumigated ethanol.

Something’s coming, something good: Identifying TPACK competence in pre-service teachers’ analyses of learning objects

There is a song at the beginning of the musical, West Side Story, where the character Tony sings that “something’s coming, something good.” The song is an anthem of optimism, brimming with promise. This paper is about the long-held promise of information and communication technology (ICT) to transform teaching and learning, to modernise the learning environment of the classroom, and to create a new digital pedagogy. But much of our experience to date in the schooling sector tells more of resistance and reaction than revolution, of more of the same but with a computer in the corner and of ICT activities as unwelcome time-fillers/time-wasters. Recently, a group of pre-service teachers in a postgraduate primary education degree in an Australian university were introduced to learning objects in an ICT immersion program. Their analyses and related responses, as recorded in online journals, have here been interpreted in terms of TPACK (Technological Pedagogical and Content Knowledge). Against contemporary observation, these students generally displayed high levels of competence and highly positive dispositions of students to the integration of ICT in their future classrooms. In short, they displayed the same optimism and confidence as the fictional “Tony” in believing that something good was coming.

Shear-critical impact response of biaxially loaded reinforced concrete circular columns

A study on the vulnerability of biaxially loaded reinforced concrete (RC) circular columns in multi-story buildings under low- to medium-velocity impacts at shear-critical locations is presented. The study is based on a previously validated nonlinear explicit dynamic finite element (FE) modeling technique developed by the authors. The impact is simulated using force pulses generated from full-scale vehicle impact tests abundantly found in the literature with a view to quantifying the sensitivity of the design parameters of the RC columns under the typical impacts that are representative of the general vehicle population. The design parameters considered include the diameter and height of the column, the vertical steel ratio, the concrete grade, and the confinement effects. From the results of the simulations, empirical equations to quantify the critical impulses for the simplified design of the short, circular RC columns under the risk of shear-critical impacts are developed.

The influence of fatty acid methyl ester profiles on inter-cycle variability in a heavy duty compression ignition engine

With the advent of alternative fuels, such as biodiesels and related blends, it is important to develop an understanding of their effects on inter-cycle variability which, in turn, influences engine performance as well as its emission. Using four methanol trans-esterified biomass fuels of differing carbon chain length and degree of unsaturation, this paper provides insight into the effect that alternative fuels have on inter-cycle variability. The experiments were conducted with a heavy-duty Cummins, turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine. Combustion performance is reported in terms of the following key in-cylinder parameters: indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), net heat release rate (NHRR), standard deviation of variability (StDev), coefficient of variation (CoV), peak pressure, peak pressure timing and maximum rate of pressure rise. A link is also established between the cyclic variability and oxygen ratio, which is a good indicator of stoichiometry. The results show that the fatty acid structures did not have a significant effect on injection timing, injection duration, injection pressure, StDev of IMEP, or the timing of peak motoring and combustion pressures. However, a significant effect was noted on the premixed and diffusion combustion proportions, combustion peak pressure and maximum rate of pressure rise. Additionally, the boost pressure, IMEP and combustion peak pressure were found to be directly correlated to the oxygen ratio. The emission of particles positively correlates with oxygen content in the fuel as well as in the air-fuel mixture resulting in a higher total number of particles per unit of mass.

Improving short utterance based I-vector speaker recognition using source and utterance-duration normalization techniques

A significant amount of speech is typically required for speaker verification system development and evaluation, especially in the presence of large intersession variability. This paper introduces a source and utterance duration normalized linear discriminant analysis (SUN-LDA) approaches to compensate session variability in short-utterance i-vector speaker verification systems. Two variations of SUN-LDA are proposed where normalization techniques are used to capture source variation from both short and full-length development i-vectors, one based upon pooling (SUN-LDA-pooled) and the other on concatenation (SUN-LDA-concat) across the duration and source-dependent session variation. Both the SUN-LDA-pooled and SUN-LDA-concat techniques are shown to provide improvement over traditional LDA on NIST 08 truncated 10sec-10sec evaluation conditions, with the highest improvement obtained with the SUN-LDA-concat technique achieving a relative improvement of 8% in EER for mis-matched conditions and over 3% for matched conditions over traditional LDA approaches.

Residential care workers and residents : the New Zealand story

Aims To describe the nature and size of long-term residential care homes in New Zealand; funding of facilities; and the ethnic and gender composition of residents and residential care workers nationwide. Methods A postal, fax, and email survey of all long-term residential care homes in New Zealand. Results Completed surveys were received from an eligible 845 facilities (response rate: 55%). The majority of these (54%) facilities housed less than 30 residents. Of the 438 (94%) facilities completing the questions about residents’ ethnicity, 432 (99%) housed residents from New Zealand European (Pakeha) descent, 156 (33%) housed at least 1 Maori resident, 71 (15%) at least 1 Pacific (Islands) resident, and 61 (13%) housed at least 1 Asian resident. Facilities employed a range of ethnically diverse staff, with 66% reporting Maori staff. Less than half of all facilities employed Pacific staff (43%) and Asian staff (33%). Registered nursing staff were mainly between 46 and 60 years (47%), and healthcare assistant staff were mostly between 25 and 45 years old (52%). Wide regional variation in the ethnic make up of staff was reported. About half of all staff were reported to have moved within the previous 2 years. Conclusions The age and turnover of the residential care workforce suggests the industry continues to be under threat from staffing shortages. While few ethnic minority residents live in long-term care facilities, staff come from diverse backgrounds, especially in certain regions.

Cyclin A/CDK2 regulates multiple G2 phase pathways

The cell cycle is a carefully choreographed series of phases that when executed successfully will allow the complete replication of the genome and the equal division of the genome and other cellular content into two independent daughter cells. The inability of the cell to execute cell division successfully can result in either checkpoint activation to allow repair and/or apoptosis and/or mutations/errors that may or may not lead to tumourgenesis. Cyclin A/CDK2 is the primary cyclin/CDK regulating G2 phase progression of the cell cycle. Cyclin A/CDK2 activity peaks in G2 phase and its inhibition causes a G2 phase delay that we have termed 'the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay'. Understanding the key pathways that are involved in the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay has been the primary focus of this study. Characterising the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay revealed accumulated levels of the inactive form of the mitotic regulator, cyclin B/CDK1. Surprisingly, there was also increased microtubule nucleation at the centrosomes, and the centrosomes stained for markers of cyclin B/CDK1 activity. Both microtubule nucleation at the centrosomes and phosphoprotein markers were lost with short-term treatment of CDK1/2 inhibition. Cyclin A/CDK2 localised at the centrosomes in late G2 phase after separation of the centrosomes but before the start of prophase. Thus G2 phase cyclin A/CDK2 controls the timing of entry into mitosis by controlling the subsequent activation of cyclin B/CDK1, but also has an unexpected role in coordinating the activation of cyclin B/CDK1 at the centrosome and in the nucleus. In addition to regulating the timing of cyclin B/CDK1 activation and entry into mitosis in the unperturbed cell cycle, cyclin A/CDK2 also was shown to have a role in G2 phase checkpoint recovery. Known G2 phase regulators were investigated to determine whether they had a role in imposing the cyclin A/ CDK2 dependent G2 delay. Examination of the critical G2 checkpoint arrest protein, Chk1, which also has a role during unperturbed G2/M phases revealed the presence of activated Chk1 in G2 phase, in a range of cell lines. Activated Chk1 levels were shown to accumulate in cyclin A/CDK2 depleted/inhibited cells. Further investigations revealed that Chk1, but not Chk2, depletion could reverse the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay. It was confirmed that the accumulative activation of Chk1 was not a consequence of DNA damage induced by cyclin A depletion. The potential of cyclin A/CDK2 to regulate Chk1 revealed that the inhibitory phosphorylations, Ser286 and Ser301, were not directly catalysed by cyclin A/CDK2 in G2 phase to regulate mitotic entry. It appeared that the ability of cyclin A/CDK2 to regulate cyclin B/CDK1 activation impacted cyclin B/CDK1s phosphorylation of Chk1 on Ser286 and Ser301, thereby contributing to the delay in G2/M phase progression. Chk1 inhibition/depletion partially abrogated the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay, and was less effective in abrogating G2 phase checkpoint suggesting that other cyclin A/CDK2 dependent mechanisms contributed to these roles of cyclin A/CDK2. In an attempt to identify these other contributing factors another G2/M phase regulator known to be regulated by cyclin A/CDK2, Cdh1 and its substrates Plk1 and Claspin were examined. Cdh1 levels were reduced in cyclin A/CDK2 depleted/inhibited cells although this had little effect on Plk1, a known Cdh1 substrate. However, the level of another substrate, Claspin, was increased. Cdh1 depletion mimicked the effect of cyclin A depletion but to a weaker extent and was sufficient at increasing Claspin levels similar to the increase caused by cyclin A depletion. Co-depletion of cyclin A and Claspin blocked the accumulation of activated Chk1 normally seen with cyclin A depletion alone. However Claspin depletion alone did not reduce the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay but this is likely to be a result of inhibition of S phase roles of Claspin. Together, these data suggest that cyclin A/CDK2 regulates a number of different mechanisms that contribute to G2/M phase progression. Here it has been demonstrated that in normal G2/M progression and possibly to a lesser extent in G2 phase checkpoint recovery, cyclin A/CDK2 regulates the level of Cdh1 which in turn affects at least one of its substrates, Claspin, and consequently results in the increased level of activated Chk1 observed. However, the involvement of Cdh1 and Claspin alone does not explain the G2 phase delay observed with cyclin A/CDK2 depletion/inhibition. It is likely that other mechanisms, possibly including cyclin A/CDK2 regulation of Wee1 and FoxM1, as reported by others, combine with the mechanism described here to regulate normal G2/M phase progression and G2 phase checkpoint recovery. These findings support the critical role for cyclin A/CDK2 in regulating progression into mitosis and suggest that upstream regulators of cyclin A/CDK2 activation will also be critical controllers of this cell cycle transition. The pathways that work to co-ordinate cell cycle progression are very intricate and deciphering these pathways, required for normal cell cycle progression, is key to understanding tumour development. By understanding cell cycle regulatory pathways it will allow the identification of the pathway/s and their mechanism/s that become affected in tumourgenesis. This will lead to the development of better targeted therapies, inferring better efficacy with fewer side effects than commonly seen with the use of traditional therapies, such as chemotherapy. Furthermore, this has the potential to positively impact the development of personalised medicines and the customisation of healthcare.

Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.