Memo to marketers: quantitative evidence for change: how user-generated content really affects brands

Developed in response to the new challenges of the social Web, this study investigates how involvement with brand-related user-generated content (UGC) affects consumers’ perceptions of brands. The authors develop a model that provides new insights into the links between drivers of UGC creation, involvement, and consumer-based brand equity. Expert opinions were sought on a hypothesized model, which further was tested through data from an online survey of 202 consumers. The results provide guidance for managerial initiatives involving UGC campaigns for brand building. The findings indicate that consumer perceptions of co-creation, community, and self-concept have a positive impact on UGC involvement that, in turn, positively affects consumer based brand equity. These empirical results have significant implications for avoiding problems and building deeper relationships between consumers and brands in the age of social media.

The effect of nonlinearity on the variational assimilation of satellite observations using a simple column model

Cloud imagery is not currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extract the type of dynamical information that experienced forecasters have extracted subjectively for many years. For example, rapidly developing mid-latitude cyclones have characteristic signatures in the cloud imagery that are most fully appreciated from a sequence of images rather than from a single image. The Met Office is currently developing a technique to extract dynamical development information from satellite imagery using their full incremental 4D-Var (four-dimensional variational data assimilation) system. We investigate a simplified form of this technique in a fully nonlinear framework. We convert information on the vertical wind field, w(z), and profiles of temperature, T(z, t), and total water content, qt (z, t), as functions of height, z, and time, t, to a single brightness temperature by defining a 2D (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of w, T and qt are updated using a simple vertical advection scheme. We define a basic cloud scheme to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, we convert this information into a brightness temperature, having developed a simple radiative transfer scheme. With the exception of some matrix inversion routines, all our code is developed from scratch. Throughout the development process we test all aspects of our 2D assimilation system, and then run identical twin experiments to try and recover information on the vertical velocity, from a sequence of observations of brightness temperature. This thesis contains a comprehensive description of our nonlinear models and assimilation system, and the first experimental results.

Incorporation of water vapour transfer in the JULES Land Surface Model: implications for key soil variables and land surface fluxes

This study focuses on the mechanisms underlying water and heat transfer in upper soil layers, and their effects on soil physical prognostic variables and the individual components of the energy balance. The skill of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model (LSM) to simulate key soil variables, such as soil moisture content and surface temperature, and fluxes such as evaporation, is investigated. The Richards equation for soil water transfer, as used in most LSMs, was updated by incorporating isothermal and thermal water vapour transfer. The model was tested for three sites representative of semi-arid and temperate arid climates: the Jornada site (New Mexico, USA), Griffith site (Australia) and Audubon site (Arizona, USA). Water vapour flux was found to contribute significantly to the water and heat transfer in the upper soil layers. This was mainly due to isothermal vapour diffusion; thermal vapour flux also played a role at the Jornada site just after rainfall events. Inclusion of water vapour flux had an effect on the diurnal evolution of evaporation, soil moisture content and surface temperature. The incorporation of additional processes, such as water vapour flux among others, into LSMs may improve the coupling between the upper soil layers and the atmosphere, which in turn could increase the reliability of weather and climate predictions.

Validation of three new measure-correlate-predict models for the long-term prospection of the wind resource

The estimation of the long-term wind resource at a prospective site based on a relatively short on-site measurement campaign is an indispensable task in the development of a commercial wind farm. The typical industry approach is based on the measure-correlate-predict �MCP� method where a relational model between the site wind velocity data and the data obtained from a suitable reference site is built from concurrent records. In a subsequent step, a long-term prediction for the prospective site is obtained from a combination of the relational model and the historic reference data. In the present paper, a systematic study is presented where three new MCP models, together with two published reference models �a simple linear regression and the variance ratio method�, have been evaluated based on concurrent synthetic wind speed time series for two sites, simulating the prospective and the reference site. The synthetic method has the advantage of generating time series with the desired statistical properties, including Weibull scale and shape factors, required to evaluate the five methods under all plausible conditions. In this work, first a systematic discussion of the statistical fundamentals behind MCP methods is provided and three new models, one based on a nonlinear regression and two �termed kernel methods� derived from the use of conditional probability density functions, are proposed. All models are evaluated by using five metrics under a wide range of values of the correlation coefficient, the Weibull scale, and the Weibull shape factor. Only one of all models, a kernel method based on bivariate Weibull probability functions, is capable of accurately predicting all performance metrics studied.

A kinetic model for the formation of acrylamide during the finish-frying of commercial French fries

Acrylamide is formed from reducing sugars and asparagine during the preparation of French fries. The commercial preparation of French fries is a multi-stage process involving the preparation of frozen, par-fried potato strips for distribution to catering outlets where they are finish fried. The initial blanching, treatment in glucose solution and par-frying steps are crucial since they determine the levels of precursors present at the beginning of the finish frying process. In order to minimize the quantities of acrylamide in cooked fries, it is important to understand the impact of each stage on the formation of acrylamide. Acrylamide, amino acids, sugars, moisture, fat and color were monitored at time intervals during the frying of potato strips which had been dipped in varying concentrations of glucose and fructose during a typical pretreatment. A mathematical model of the finish-frying was developed based on the fundamental chemical reaction pathways, incorporating moisture and temperature gradients in the fries. This showed the contribution of both glucose and fructose to the generation of acrylamide, and accurately predicted the acrylamide content of the final fries.

Kinetic model for the formation of acrylamide during the finish-frying of commercial French fries

Acrylamide is formed from reducing sugars and asparagine during the preparation of French fries. The commercial preparation of French fries is a multistage process involving the preparation of frozen, par-fried potato strips for distribution to catering outlets, where they are finish-fried. The initial blanching, treatment in glucose solution, and par-frying steps are crucial because they determine the levels of precursors present at the beginning of the finish-frying process. To minimize the quantities of acrylamide in cooked fries, it is important to understand the impact of each stage on the formation of acrylamide. Acrylamide, amino acids, sugars, moisture, fat, and color were monitored at time intervals during the frying of potato strips that had been dipped in various concentrations of glucose and fructose during a typical pretreatment. A mathematical model based on the fundamental chemical reaction pathways of the finish-frying was developed, incorporating moisture and temperature gradients in the fries. This showed the contribution of both glucose and fructose to the generation of acrylamide and accurately predicted the acrylamide content of the final fries.

The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events simulated by NEMO model

An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30' E between 70°30' and 72°30' N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer. Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the Barents Sea enhances heat loses, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened. During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C. An analysis of model data shows that the strength of the Atlantic inflow in the Barents Sea is the main cause of heat content variability, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with the atmosphere provides the means by which the Barents sea heat budget relaxes to normal in the subsequent year after the ENSO events.

An in-vitro model for studying the interaction of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and other enteropathogens with bovine primary cell cultures

Sections of kidney, trachea, ileum, colon, rectum and rumen were removed at post mortem from a neonatal calf and, with the exception of the rumen, primary cell lines were established for each of the cell types. The adherence of enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) serotype O157:H7, enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) serotype O111, E. coli K12 (a laboratory adapted non-pathogenic strain) and Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium was assayed on each cell type. For all adherence assays on all cell lines, EHEC O157:H7 adhered to a significantly greater extent than the other bacteria. S. Typhimurium and EPEC O111 adhered to a similar extent to one another, whereas E. coli K12 was significantly less adherent by 100-fold. In all cell types, > 10% of adherent S. Typhimurium bacteria invaded, whereas c. 0.01-0.1% of adherent EHEC O157:H7 and EPEC O111 bacteria invaded, although they are regarded as non-invasive. EHEC O157 generated actin re-arrangements in all cell types as demonstrated by fluorescent actin staining (FAS) under densely packed bacterial micro-colonies. EPEC O111 readily generated the localised adherent phenotype on bovine cells but generated only densely packed micro-colonies on HEp-2 cells. The intensity of actin re-arrangements induced in bovine cells by EPEC O111 was less than that induced by EHEC O157:H7. The intimate attachment on all cell types by both EHEC O157:H7 and EPEC O111 was clearly demonstrated by scanning electron microscopy.

Correction of atmospheric delay effects in radar interferometry using a nested mesoscale atmospheric model

The temporal variability of the atmosphere through which radio waves pass in the technique of differential radar interferometry can seriously limit the accuracy with which the method can measure surface motion. A forward, nested mesoscale model of the atmosphere can be used to simulate the variable water content along the radar path and the resultant phase delays. Using this approach we demonstrate how to correct an interferogram of Mount Etna in Sicily associated with an eruption in 2004-5. The regional mesoscale model (Unified Model) used to simulate the atmosphere at higher resolutions consists of four nested domains increasing in resolution (12, 4, 1, 0.3 km), sitting within the analysis version of a global numerical model that is used to initiate the simulation. Using the high resolution 3D model output we compute the surface pressure, temperature and the water vapour, liquid and solid water contents, enabling the dominant hydrostatic and wet delays to be calculated at specific times corresponding to the acquisition of the radar data. We can also simulate the second-order delay effects due to liquid water and ice.

Waste cooking oil as an energy resource: review of Chinese policies

Converting waste cooking oil into biofuel represents a three-win solution, dealing simultaneously with food security, pollution, and energy security. In this paper, we encode the policy documents of waste cooking oil refining biofuel in China based on content analysis, and explore the related policies from the two dimensions as basic policy tools and enterprises supply chain. Research indicates the weak institution coordination of policy issuing entities. Also, the findings show that tools of regulatory control and goal planning are overused. Policies of government procurement, outsourcing and biofuel consumption are relatively scarce. Generally, government focuses more on formulating policies from the strategic, administrative and regulatory aspects, while less on market-oriented initiatives as funding input and financial support.

Changing building user attitude and organisational policy towards sustainable resource use in healthcare

Health care provision is significantly impacted by the ability of the health providers to engineer a viable healthcare space to support care stakeholders needs. In this paper we discuss and propose use of organisational semiotics as a set of methods to link stakeholders to systems, which allows us to capture clinician activity, information transfer, and building use; which in tern allows us to define the value of specific systems in the care environment to specific stakeholders and the dependence between systems in a care space. We suggest use of a semantically enhanced building information model (BIM) to support the linking of clinician activity to the physical resource objects and space; and facilitate the capture of quantifiable data, over time, concerning resource use by key stakeholders. Finally we argue for the inclusion of appropriate stakeholder feedback and persuasive mechanism, to incentivise building user behaviour to support organisational level sustainability policy.

Potential role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange as found in water vapor in general circulation model experiments

The tropical tropopause is considered to be the main region of upward transport of tropospheric air carrying water vapor and other tracers to the tropical stratosphere. The lower tropical stratosphere is also the region where the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the zonal wind is observed. The QBO is positioned in the region where the upward transport of tropospheric tracers to the overworld takes place. Hence the QBO can in principle modulate these transports by its secondary meridional circulation. This modulation is investigated in this study by an analysis of general circulation model (GCM) experiments with an assimilated QBO. The experiments show, first, that the temperature signal of the QBO modifies the specific humidity in the air transported upward and, second, that the secondary meridional circulation modulates the velocity of the upward transport. Thus during the eastward phase of the QBO the upward moving air is moister and the upward velocity is less than during the westward phase of the QBO. It was further found that the QBO period is too short to allow an equilibration of the moisture in the QBO region. This causes a QBO signal of the moisture which is considerably smaller than what could be obtained in the limiting case of indefinitely long QBO phases. This also allows a high sensitivity of the mean moisture over a QBO cycle to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena or major tropical volcanic eruptions. The interplay of sporadic volcanic eruptions, ENSO, and QBO can produce low-frequency variability in the water vapor content of the tropical stratosphere, which renders the isolation of the QBO signal in observational data of water vapor in the equatorial lower stratosphere difficult.

Soil management in relation to sustainable agriculture and ecosystem services

Requirements for research, practices and policies affecting soil management in relation to global food security are reviewed. Managing soil organic carbon (C) is central because soil organic matter influences numerous soil properties relevant to ecosystem functioning and crop growth. Even small changes in total C content can have disproportionately large impacts on key soil physical properties. Practices to encourage maintenance of soil C are important for ensuring sustainability of all soil functions. Soil is a major store of C within the biosphere – increases or decreases in this large stock can either mitigate or worsen climate change. Deforestation, conversion of grasslands to arable cropping and drainage of wetlands all cause emission of C; policies and international action to minimise these changes are urgently required. Sequestration of C in soil can contribute to climate change mitigation but the real impact of different options is often misunderstood. Some changes in management that are beneficial for soil C, increase emissions of nitrous oxide (a powerful greenhouse gas) thus cancelling the benefit. Research on soil physical processes and their interactions with roots can lead to improved and novel practices to improve crop access to water and nutrients. Increased understanding of root function has implications for selection and breeding of crops to maximise capture of water and nutrients. Roots are also a means of delivering natural plant-produced chemicals into soil with potentially beneficial impacts. These include biocontrol of soil-borne pests and diseases and inhibition of the nitrification process in soil (conversion of ammonium to nitrate) with possible benefits for improved nitrogen use efficiency and decreased nitrous oxide emission. The application of molecular methods to studies of soil organisms, and their interactions with roots, is providing new understanding of soil ecology and the basis for novel practical applications. Policy makers and those concerned with development of management approaches need to keep a watching brief on emerging possibilities from this fast-moving area of science. Nutrient management is a key challenge for global food production: there is an urgent need to increase nutrient availability to crops grown by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Many changes in practices including inter-cropping, inclusion of nitrogen-fixing crops, agroforestry and improved recycling have been clearly demonstrated to be beneficial: facilitating policies and practical strategies are needed to make these widely available, taking account of local economic and social conditions. In the longer term fertilizers will be essential for food security: policies and actions are needed to make these available and affordable to small farmers. In developed regions, and those developing rapidly such as China, strategies and policies to manage more precisely the necessarily large flows of nutrients in ways that minimise environmental damage are essential. A specific issue is to minimise emissions of nitrous oxide whilst ensuring sufficient nitrogen is available for adequate food production. Application of known strategies (through either regulation or education), technological developments, and continued research to improve understanding of basic processes will all play a part. Decreasing soil erosion is essential, both to maintain the soil resource and to minimise downstream damage such as sedimentation of rivers with adverse impacts on fisheries. Practical strategies are well known but often have financial implications for farmers. Examples of systems for paying one group of land users for ecosystem services affecting others exist in several parts of the world and serve as a model.

Self-assembly of a model amphiphilic oligopeptide incorporating an arginine headgroup

The self-assembly in aqueous solution of the alanine-rich peptide A12R2 containing twelve alanine residues and two arginine residues has been investigated. This oligomeric peptide was synthesized via NCA-polymerization methods. The surfactant-like peptide is found via FTIR to form antiparallel dimers which aggregate into twisted fibrils, as revealed by cryogenic-transmission electron microscopy. The fibril substructure is probed via detailed X-ray scattering experiments, and are uniquely comprised of twisted tapes only 5 nm wide, set by the width of the antiparallel A12R2 dimers. The packing of the alanine residues leads to distinct “b-sheet” spacings compared to those for amyloid-forming peptides. For this peptide, b-sheet structure coexists with some a-helical content. These ultrafine amyloid fibrils present arginine at high density on their surfaces, and this may lead to applications in nanobiotechnology.