Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects

There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Stochastic modelling considering ionospheric scintillation effects on GNSS relative and point positioning

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

On determining spectral parameters, tracking jitter, and GPS positioning improvement by scintillation mitigation

A method of determining spectral parameters p (slope of the phase PSD) and T (phase PSD at 1 Hz) and hence tracking error variance in a GPS receiver PLL from just amplitude and phase scintillation indices and an estimated value of the Fresnel frequency has been previously presented. Here this method is validated using 50 Hz GPS phase and amplitude data from high latitude receivers in northern Norway and Svalbard. This has been done both using (1) a Fresnel frequency estimated using the amplitude PSD (in order to check the accuracy of the method) and (2) a constant assumed value of Fresnel frequency for the data set, convenient for the situation when contemporaneous phase PSDs are not available. Both of the spectral parameters (p, T) calculated using this method are in quite good agreement with those obtained by direct measurements of the phase spectrum as are tracking jitter variances determined for GPS receiver PLLs using these values. For the Svalbard data set, a significant difference in the scintillation level observed on the paths from different satellites received simultaneously was noted. Then, it is shown that the accuracy of relative GPS positioning can be improved by use of the tracking jitter variance in weighting the measurements from each satellite used in the positioning estimation. This has significant advantages for scintillation mitigation, particularly since the method can be accomplished utilizing only time domain measurements thus obviating the need for the phase PSDs in order to extract the spectral parameters required for tracking jitter determination.

Second and Third Order Ionospheric Effects on GNSS Positioning: A Case Study in Brazil

The Global Positioning System (GPS) transmits signals in two frequencies. It allows the correction of the first order ionospheric effect by using the ionosphere free combination. However, the second and third order ionospheric effects, which combined may cause errors of the order of centimeters in the GPS measurements, still remain. In this paper the second and third order ionospheric effects, which were taken into account in the GPS data processing in the Brazilian region, were investigated. The corrected and not corrected GPS data from these effects were processed in the relative and precise point positioning (PPP) approaches, respectively, using Bernese V5.0 software and the PPP software (GPSPPP) from NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada). The second and third order corrections were applied in the GPS data using an in-house software that is capable of reading a RINEX file and applying the corrections to the GPS observables, creating a corrected RINEX file. For the relative processing case, a Brazilian network with long baselines was processed in a daily solution considering a period of approximately one year. For the PPP case, the processing was accomplished using data collected by the IGS FORT station considering the period from 2001 to 2006 and a seasonal analysis was carried out, showing a semi-annual and an annual variation in the vertical component. In addition, a geographical variation analysis in the PPP for the Brazilian region has confirmed that the equatorial regions are more affected by the second and third order ionospheric effects than other regions.

GPS Satellite Kinematic Relative Positioning: Analyzing and Improving the Functional Mathematical Model Using Wavelets

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Investigating the effect of different positioning of lysine residues along the peptide chain of mastoparans for their secondary structures and biological activities

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Monitoring the positioning of short polycationic peptides in model lipid bilayers by combining hydrogen/deuterium exchange and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

POSITIONING DURING RESISTANCE ELBOW FLEXOR EXERCISE AFFECTS ELECTROMYOGRAPHIC ACTIVITY, HEART RATE, and PERCEIVED EXERTION

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Positioning and localization of two-wavelength interferograms for wavefront reconstruction with volume holographic media

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Targeting Plasmodium ligands on mosquito salivary glands and midgut with a phage display peptide library

Despite vast efforts and expenditures in the past few decades, malaria continues to kill millions of persons every year, and new approaches for disease control are urgently needed. To complete its life cycle in the mosquito, Plasmodium, the causative agent of malaria, has to traverse the epithelia of the midgut and salivary glands. Although strong circumstantial evidence indicates that parasite interactions with the two organs are specific, hardly any information is available about the interacting molecules. By use of a phage display library, we identified a 12-aa peptide-salivary gland and midgut peptide 1 (SM1)-that binds to the distal lobes of the salivary gland and to the luminal side of the midgut epithelium, but not to the midgut surface facing the hemolymph or to ovaries. The coincidence of the tissues with which parasites and the SM1 peptide interact suggested that the parasite and peptide recognize the same surface ligand. In support of this hypothesis, the SM1 peptide strongly inhibited Plasmodium invasion of salivary gland and midgut epithelia. These experiments suggest a new strategy for the genetic manipulation of mosquito vectorial capacity.

Heterogeneous demand and market segmentation: the Argentine pension funds system

Includes bibliography

Structural change and productivity growth 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities. Summary

Includes bibliography