Improved combinations of parametric and nonparametric Regression estimators

This paper provides a systematic and unified treatment of the developments in the area of kernel estimation in econometrics and statistics. Both the estimation and hypothesis testing issues are discussed for the nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. A discussion on the choice of windowwidth is also presented.

Robust monetary policy with the consumption - wealth channel

Robust Monetary Policy with the Consumption - Wealth Channel

Robust statistical modeling of portfolios

Atypical points in the data may result in meaningless e±cient frontiers. This follows since portfolios constructed using classical estimates may re°ect neither the usual nor the unusual days patterns. On the other hand, portfolios constructed using robust approaches are able to capture just the dynamics of the usual days, which constitute the majority of the business days. In this paper we propose an statistical model and a robust estimation procedure to obtain an e±cient frontier which would take into account the behavior of both the usual and most of the atypical days. We show, using real data and simulations, that portfolios constructed in this way require less frequent rebalancing, and may yield higher expected returns for any risk level.

Unconditional transfers goes to health? Evidence from Brazilian municipalities

This study assesses the impact of unconditional transfer resources on the health indicators of Brazilian municipalities. This transfer refers to the Participation Fund of Municipalities (FPM) where at least 15% of its value should be spent on public health. Based on a discontinuity of the rules of transfers, we explore Regression Discontinuous Design for the years 2002 to 2010, and find: (i) no significant effect of FPM on mortality reduction; (ii) a robust and significant reduction in morbidity, treated municipalities – on the right side of thresholds – on average have a per capita rate of morbidity 0.00821% lower than those on the left side of the cutoff points; (iii) the mechanisms through which a reduction on morbidity could be operated would be due to estimated increases in preventive measures such as consultations and medical and nurses visits, these were bigger for the treated group in, respectively, 0.32%, 0.038% and 0.039%.

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.

Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Impacto da estratégia saúde da família com equipe de saúde bucal sobre indicadores de saúde bucal: análise em municípios do nordeste com mais de 100 mil habitantes

This study examined in municipalities of Northeast of Brazil with more than one hundred thousand people who incorporation of Oral Health Teams (OHT) into the Family Health Strategy (FHE) the possible impact on oral health indicators. Sought to answer whether implementation OHT brought the best indicators of health problems and coverage, compared to areas without coverage by the FHE through a community trial in parallel, quasi-randomized. In each of the municipalities surveyed were 20 census tracts, 10 were located in areas covered by oral health teams in the ESF and 10 industries in areas not covered. The final sample consisted of 59.221 individuals. We compared oral health indicators related to health problems, access to services and coverage of oral health actions. The analysis strategy was based on the calculation of prevalence ratios and confidence intervals, adjusted for confounding factors through Poisson regression with robust variance. It also has measured the association between an indicator of social inequality for comparison between areas. The best results are associated with indicators of access and coverage of oral health actions at the expense of the indicators of health problems, suggesting a possible maintenance of a traditional model of practice yet. The results also suggest a possible effect of a specific policy in the area of primary care on inequality in access. From the discussions presented throughout this work, we can see that the impact analysis of public policy, obtained by comparing areas with and without the intervention, not only captures the effect on the target population, but other dimensions of organization service and therefore should be understood as one of the analytical possibilities related to the management

Desenvolvimento e validação de método analítico para determinação de teor de ácido gálico e catequina no fitoterápico sanativo® por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência

The herbal medicine Sanativo® is produced by the Pernambucano Laboratory since 1888 with indications of healing and hemostasis. It is composed of a fluid extract about Piptadenia colubrina, Schinus terebinthifolius, Cereus peruvianus and Physalis angulata. Among the plants in their composition, S. terebinthifolius and P. colubrina have in common phenolic compounds which are assigned most of its pharmacological effects. The tannins, gallic acid and catechin were selected as markers for quality control. The aim of this study was the development and validation of analytical method by HPLC/UV/DAD for the separation and simultaneous quantification of gallic acid (GAC) and catechin (CTQ) in Sanativo®. The chromatographic system was to stationary phase, C-18 RP column, 4,6 x 150 mm (5 mm) under a temperature of 35 ° C, detection at 270 and 210 nm. The mobile phase consisted of 0.05% trifluoroacetic acid and methanol in the proportions 88:12 (v/v), a flow rate of 1 ml/min. The analytical method presented a retention factor of 0.30 and 1.36, tail factor of 1.8 and 1.63 for gallic acid and catechin, respectively, resolution of 18.2, and theoretical plates above 2000. The method validation parameters met the requirements of Resolution n º 899 of May 29, 2003, ANVISA. The correlation coefficient of linear regression analysis for GAC and CTQ from the standard solution was 0.9958 and 0.9973 and when performed from the Sanativo® 0.9973 and 0.9936, the matrix does not interfere in the range 70 to 110 %. The limits of detection and quantification for GAC and CQT were 3.25 and 0.863, and 9.57 and 2.55 mg/mL, respectively. The markers, GAC and CQT, showed repetibility (coefficient of variation of 0.94 % and 2.36 %) and satisfactory recovery (100.02 ± 1.11 % and 101.32 ± 1.36 %). The method has been characterized selective and robust quantification of GAC and CTQ in the Sanativo® and was considered validated

Estimation of genetic parameters for partial egg production periods by means of random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimates of genetic parameters for scrotal circumference using random regression models in Nelore cattle

A total of 15,901 scrotal circumference (SC) records from 5300 Nelore bulls, ranging from 229 to 560 days of age, were used with the objective of estimating (co)variance functions for SC, using random regression models. Models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and age of dam at calving as covariable (linear and quadratic effects). To model the population mean trend, a third order Legendre polynomial on animal age was utilized. The direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental random effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials on animal age, with orders of fit ranging from 1 to 5. Residual variances were modeled considering 1 (homogeneity of variance) or 4 age classes. Results obtained with the random regression models were compared to multi-trait analysis. (Co)variance estimates using multi-trait and random regression models were similar. The model considering a third- and fifth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, was the most adequate to model changes in variance of SC with age. Heritability estimates for SC ranged from 0.24 (229 days of age) to 0.47 (300 days of age), remained almost constant until 500 days of age (0.52), decreasing thereafter (0.44). In general, the genetic correlations between measures of scrotal circumference obtained from 229 to 560 days of age decreased with increasing distance between ages. For genetic evaluation scrotal circumference could be measured between 400 and 500 days of age. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random regression analyses using B-splines functions to model growth from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Murrah buffaloes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)