809 resultados para Risk interval measure
Resumo:
Entrepreneurial marketing has gained popularity in both the entrepreneurship and marketing disciplines in recent times. The success of ventures that have pursued what are considered non-traditional marketing approaches has been attributed to entrepreneurial marketing practices. Despite the multitude of marketing concepts and models, there are prominent venture successes that do not conform to these and have thus been put in the ''entrepreneurial'' box. One only has to look to the ''Virgin'' model to put this in context. Branson has proven for example that not ''sticking to the knitting'' can work with the ways the Virgin portfolio has been diversified. Consequently, an entrepreneurial orientation is considered a desirable philosophy and has become prominent in such industries as airlines and information technology. Miles and Arnold (1991) found that entrepreneurial orientation is positively correlated to marketing orientation. They propose that entrepreneurial orientation is a strategic response by firms to turbulence in the environment. While many marketing successes are analysed in hindsight using traditional marketing concepts and strategies, there are those that challenge standard marketing textbook recommendations. Marketing strategy is often viewed as a process of targeting, segmenting and positioning (STP). Academics and consultants advocate this approach along with the marketing and business plans. The reality however is that a number of businesses do not practice these and pursue alternative approaches. Other schools of thought and business models have been developing to explain differences in orientation such as branding (Keller 2001), the service-dominant logic (Vargo and Lusch 2004) and effectuation logic (Sarasvathy 2001). This indicates that scholars are now looking to cognate fields to explain a given phenomenon beyond their own disciplines. Bucking this trend is a growing number of researchers working at the interface between entrepreneurship and marketing. There is now an emerging body of work dedicated to this interface, hence the development of entrepreneurial marketing as an alternative to the traditional approaches. Hills and Hultman (2008:3) define entrepreneurial marketing as ''a spirit, an orientation as well as a process of passionately pursuing opportunities and launching and growing ventures that create perceived customer value through relationships by employing innovativeness, creativity, selling, market immersion, networking and flexibility.'' Although it started as a special interest group, entrepreneurial marketing is now gaining recognition in mainstream entrepreneurship and marketing literature. For example new marketing textbooks now incorporate an entrepreneurial marketing focus (Grewal and Levy 2008). The purpose of this paper is to explore what entrepreneurial approaches are used by entrepreneurs and their impact on the success of marketing activities. Methodology/Key Propositions In order to investigate this, we employ two cases: 42Below, vodka producers from New Zealand and Penderyn Distillery, whisky distillers from Wales. The cases were chosen based on the following criteria. Firstly, both companies originate from small economies. Secondly, both make products (spirits) from locations that are not traditionally regarded as producers of their flagship products and thirdly, the two companies are different from each other in terms of their age. Penderyn is an old company established in 1882, whereas 42Below was founded only in 1999. Vodka has never been associated with New Zealand. By the same token, whisky has always been associated with Scotland and Ireland but never been with Wales. Both companies defied traditional stereotypes in marketing their flagship products and found international success. Using a comparative a case study approach, we use Covin and Slevin's (1989) set of items that purport to measure entrepreneurial orientation and apply a qualitative lens on the approaches of both companies. These are: 1. cultural emphases on innovation and R&D 2. high rate of new product introduction 3. bold, innovative product development 4. initiator proactive posture 5. first to introduce new technologies and products 6. competitive posture toward competitor 7. strong prolictivity for high risk, high return projects 8. environment requires boldness to achieve objectives 9. when faced with risk, adopts aggressive, bold posture. Results and Implications We find that both companies have employed entrepreneurial marketing approaches but with different intensities. While acknowledging that they are different from the norm, the specifics of their individual approaches are dissimilar. Both companies have positioned their products at the premium end of their product categories and have emphasised quality and awards in their communication strategies. 42Below has carved an image of irreverence and being non-conformist. They have unashamedly utilised viral marketing and entered international markets by training bartenders and hosting unconventional events. They use edgy language such as vodka university, vodka professors and vodka ambassadors. Penderyn Distillery has taken a more traditional approach to marketing its products and portraying romantic images of age-old tradition of distilling as key to their positioning. Both companies enjoy success as evidenced by industry awards and international acclaim.
Final : report assessing risk and variation in maintenance and rehabilitation costs for road network
Resumo:
This report presents the results of research projects conducted by The Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, RMIT University, Queensland Government Department of Main Roads and Queensland Department of Public Works. The research projects aimed at developing a methodology for assessing variation and risk in investment in road network, including the application of the method in assessing road network performance and maintenance and rehabilitation costs for short- and long-term future investment.
Resumo:
Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.
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An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.
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In my work with secondary school students who have disengaged from mainstream classrooms, I have often been surprised at the ways they enthusiastically engage with the projects on offer. They have demonstrated that, in apparent contradiction of their classroom behaviour, they still maintain hope in achieving a positive outcome from education. In a long-running schools-university project employing a “students-as-researchers” approach to investigating educational disadvantage, “at-risk” students have produced high quality results. Naturally, I wanted to know what it was about this sort of pedagogy that seemed to work for them. In this chapter, then, I outline the project and discuss some reasons for disengagement. I then address the features of the project that the participants themselves have identified as being instrumental in their re-engagement with formal education. Finally, I consider how these features may be transposed to maintaining the educational engagement of at-risk students in mainstream classrooms.
Resumo:
Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.
Resumo:
A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.
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Background: Injury is the leading cause of mortality for young people in Australia (AIHW, 2008). Adolescent injury mortality is consistently associated with risk taking behaviour, including transport and interpersonal violence (AIHW, 2003), which often occurs in the context of alcohol and other substance use. A rapid increase in risk taking and injury through early to late adolescence highlights the need for effective school based interventions. Aim: The aim of the current research was to examine the relationship between school connectedness and adolescent risk and injury, in order to inform effective prevention approaches. School connectedness, or students’ feelings of belongingness to school, has been shown to be a critical protective factor in adolescence which can be targeted effectively through teacher interventions. Despite evidence linking low school connectedness with increased health risk behaviour, including substance use and violence, research has not yet addressed possible links between connectedness and a broader range of risk taking behaviours (e.g. transport risks) or injury. Method: This study involved background data collection to inform the development of an intervention. A total of 595 Year 9 students (aged 13-14 years) from 5 Southeast Queensland high schools completed questionnaires that included measures of school connectedness, risk taking behaviour, alcohol and other substance use, and injuries. Results: Increased school connectedness was found to be associated with fewer transport risk behaviours and with decreased alcohol and other substance use for both males and females. Similarly, increased school connectedness was associated with fewer passenger and motorcycle injuries for male participants. Both males and females with increased school connectedness reported fewer alcohol related injuries. Implications: These results indicate that school connectedness appears to have protective effects for early adolescence. These findings may also hold for older adolescents and indicate that it may be an important factor to target in school based risk and injury prevention programs. A school connectedness intervention is currently being designed, focusing on teacher professional development. The intervention will be implemented in conjunction with a curriculum based injury prevention program for Year 9 students and will be evaluated through a large scale cluster randomised trial involving 26 schools.
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Aims: Changing behaviour to reduce stroke risk is a difficult prospect made particularly complex because of psychological factors. This study examined predictors of intentions and behaviours to reduce stroke risk in a sample of at-risk individuals, seeking to find how knowledge and health beliefs influenced both intention and actual behaviour to reduce stroke risk. Methods: A repeated measures design was used to assess behavioural intentions at time 1 (T1) and subsequent behaviour (T2). One hundred and twenty six respondents completed an online survey at T1, and behavioural follow-up data were collected from approximately 70 participants 1 month later. Predictors were stroke knowledge, demographic variables, and beliefs about stroke that were derived from an expanded health belief model. Dependent measures were: exercise and weight loss, and intention to engage in these behaviours to reduce stroke risk. Findings: Multiple hierarchical regression analyses showed that, for exercise and weight loss respectively, different health beliefs predicted intention to control stroke risk. The most important exercise-related health beliefs were benefits, susceptibility, and self-efficacy; for weight loss, the most important beliefs were barriers, and to a lesser degree, susceptibility and subjective norm. Conclusions: Health beliefs may play an important role in stroke prevention, particularly beliefs about susceptibility because these emerged for both behaviours. Stroke education and prevention programmes that selectively target the health beliefs relevant to specific behaviours may prove most efficacious.
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Introduction: Work engagement is a recent application of positive psychology and refers to a positive, fulfilling, work-related state of mind characterized by vigor, dedication and absorption. Despite theoretical assumptions, there is little published research on work engagement, due primarily to its recent emergence as a psychological construct. Furthermore, examining work engagement among high-stress occupations, such as police, is useful because police officers are generally characterized as having a high level of work engagement. Previous research has identified job resources (e.g. social support) as antecedents of work engagement. However detailed evaluation of job demands as an antecedent of work engagement within high-stress occupations has been scarce. Thus our second aim was to test job demands (i.e. monitoring demands and problem-solving demands) and job resources (i.e. time control, method control, supervisory support, colleague support, and friend and family support) as antecedents of work engagement among police officers. Method: Data were collected via a self-report online survey from one Australian state police service (n = 1,419). Due to the high number of hypothesized antecedent variables, hierarchical multiple regression analysis was employed rather than structural equation modelling. Results: Work engagement reported by police officers was high. Female officers had significantly higher levels of work engagement than male officers, while officers at mid-level ranks (sergeant) reported the lowest levels of work engagement. Job resources (method control, supervisor support and colleague support) were significant antecedents of three dimensions of work engagement. Only monitoring demands were significant antecedent of the absorption. Conclusion: Having healthy and engaged police officers is important for community security and economic growth. This study identified some common factors which influence work engagement experienced by police officers. However, we also note that excessive work engagement can yield negative outcomes such as psychological distress.
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Objective: To define characteristics of vehicle crashes occurring on rural private property in north Queensland with an exploration of associated risk factors. Design: Descriptive analysis of private property crash data collected by the Rural and Remote Road Safety Study. Setting: Rural and remote north Queensland. Participants: A total of 305 vehicle controllers aged 16 years or over hospitalised at Atherton, Cairns, Mount Isa or Townsville for at least 24 hours as a result of a vehicle crash. Main outcome measure: A structured questionnaire completed by participants covering crash details, lifestyle and demographic characteristics, driving history, medical history, alcohol and drug use and attitudes to road use. Results: Overall, 27.9% of interviewees crashed on private property, with the highest proportion of private road crashes occurring in the North West Statistical Division (45%). Risk factors shown to be associated with private property crashes included male sex, riding off-road motorcycle or all-terrain vehicle, first-time driving at that site, lack of licence for vehicle type, recreational use and not wearing a helmet or seatbelt. Conclusions: Considerable trauma results from vehicle crashes on rural private property. These crashes are not included in most crash data sets, which are limited to public road crashes. Legislation and regulations applicable to private property vehicle use are largely focused on workplace health and safety, yet work-related crashes represent a minority of private property crashes in north Queensland.
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The engagement behaviour of 1,524 student-enrolments (“students”) in five first year units was monitored and 608 (39.9%) were classified as “at risk” using the criterion of not submitting or failing their first assignment. Of these, 327 (53.8%) were successfully contacted (i.e., spoken to by phone) and provided with advice and/or referral to learning and personal support services while the remaining 281 (46.2%) could not be contacted. Nine hundred and sixteen students (60.1%) were classified as “not at risk.” Overall, the at risk group who were contacted achieved significantly higher end-of-semester final grades than, and persisted (completed the unit) at more than twice the rate of, the at risk group who were not contacted. There were variations among the units which were explained by the timing of the first assignment, specific teaching-learning processes and the structure of the curriculum. Implications for curriculum design and supporting first year students within a personal, social and academic framework are discussed.