Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

We consider the problem of combining opinions from different experts in an explicitly model-based way to construct a valid subjective prior in a Bayesian statistical approach. We propose a generic approach by considering a hierarchical model accounting for various sources of variation as well as accounting for potential dependence between experts. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem deals with a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. Two hierarchical levels of variation are considered (between and within experts) with a complex mathematical situation due to the use of an indirect probit regression. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school. It illustrates a complex situation where three hierarchical levels of variation are modelled but with a simpler underlying probability distribution (log-Normal).

Pharmacist prescribing of venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in a surgical pre-admission clinic

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the term used to describe the disease process which presents as either deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. It is a major cause of death and disability worldwide and places a large financial burden on healthcare systems. Multiple risk factors have been identified for the development of VTE, including hospitalisation for acute medical illness and surgery. Documentation of VTE risk assessment is a critical part of any patient admission, driven by evidence that a risk assessment is a trigger for VTE prophylaxis to be considered. In the United Kingdom, healthcare services have set targets for VTE risk assessment documentation and financial incentives are linked to targets being met...

Climate variability, climate change and land degradation

Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.

Glutathione transferase isozyme genotypes in patients with prostate and bladder carcinoma

Genotype distributions for GSTP1, GSTM1, and GSTT1 were determined in 91 patients with prostatic carcinoma and 135 patients with bladder carcinoma and compared with those in 127 abdominal surgery patients without malignancies. None of the genotypes differed significantly with respect to age or sex among controls or cancer patients. In the group of prostatic carcinoma patients, GSTT1 null allele homozygotes were more prevalent (25% in carcinoma patients vs 13% in controls, Fisher P=0.02, χ2 P = 0.02, OR = 2.31, CI = 1.17-4.59) and the combined M1-/T1-null genotype was also more frequent (9% vs 3%, χ2 P= 0.02, Fisher P = 0.03). Homozygosity for the GSTM1 null allele was more frequent among bladder carcinoma patients (59% in bladder carcinoma patients vs 45% in controls, Fisher P = 0.03, χ2 P = 0.02, OR = 1.76, CI = 1.08-2.88). In contrast to a previous report, no significant increase in the frequency of the GSTP1b allele was found in the tumor patients. Except for the combined GSTM1-/T1-null genotype in prostatic carcinoma, none of the combined genotypes showed a significant association with either of the cancers. These findings suggest that specific single polymorphic GST genes, that is GSTM1 in the case of bladder cancer and GSTT1 in the case of prostatic carcinoma, are most relevant for the development of these urological malignancies among the general population in Central Europe.

Carcinogenicity and genotoxicity of ethylene oxide : new aspects and recent advances

Long-term inhalation studies in rodents have presented unequivocal evidence of experimental carcinogenicity of ethylene oxide, based on the formation of malignant tumors at multiple sites. However, despite a considerable body of epidemiological data only limited evidence has been obtained of its carcinogenicity in humans. Ethylene oxide is not only an important exogenous toxicant, but it is also formed from ethylene as a biological precursor. Ethylene is a normal body constituent; its endogenous formation is evidenced by exhalation in rats and in humans. Consequently, ethylene oxide must also be regarded as a physiological compound. The most abundant DNA adduct of ethylene oxide is 7-(2-hydroxyethyl)guanine (HOEtG). Open questions are the nature and role of tissue-specific factors in ethylene oxide carcinogenesis and the physiological and quantitative role of DNA repair mechanisms. The detection of remarkable individual differences in the susceptibility of humans has promoted research into genetic factors that influence the metabolism of ethylene oxide. With this background it appears that current PBPK models for trans-species extrapolation of ethylene oxide toxicity need to be refined further. For a cancer risk assessment at low levels of DNA damage, exposure-related adducts must be discussed in relation to background DNA damage as well as to inter- and intraindividual variability. In rats, subacute ethylene oxide exposures on the order of 1 ppm (1.83 mg/m3) cause DNA adduct levels (HOEtG) of the same magnitude as produced by endogenous ethylene oxide. Based on very recent studies the endogenous background levels of HOEtG in DNA of humans are comparable to those that are produced in rodents by repetitive exogenous ethylene oxide exposures of about 10 ppm (18.3 mg/m3). Experimentally, ethylene oxide has revealed only weak mutagenic effects in vivo, which are confined to higher doses. It has been concluded that long-term human occupational exposure to low airborne concentrations to ethylene oxide, at or below current occupational exposure limits of 1 ppm (1.83 mg/m3), would not produce unacceptable increased genotoxic risks. However, critical questions remain that need further discussions relating to the coherence of animal and human data of experimental data in vitro vs. in vivo and to species-specific dynamics of DNA lesions.

Expression of mammalian glutathione S-transferase 5-5 in Salmonella typhimurium TA1535 leads to base-pair mutations upon exposure to dihalomethanes

Dihalomethanes can produce liver tumors in mice but not in rats, and concern exists about the risk of these compounds to humans. Glutathione (GSH) conjugation of dihalomethanes has been considered to be a critical event in the bioactivation process, and risk assessment is based upon this premise; however, there is little experimental support for this view or information about the basis of genotoxicity. A plasmid vector containing rat GSH S-transferase 5-5 was transfected into the Salmonella typhimurium tester strain TA1535, which then produced active enzyme. The transfected bacteria produced base-pair revertants in the presence of ethylene dihalides or dihalomethanes, in the order CH2Br2 > CH2BrCl > CH2Cl2. However, revertants were not seen when cells were exposed to GSH, CH2Br2, and an amount of purified GSH S-transferase 5-5 (20-fold excess in amount of that expressed within the cells). HCHO, which is an end product of the reaction of GSH with dihalomethanes, also did not produce mutations. S-(1-Acetoxymethyl)GSH was prepared as an analog of the putative S-(1-halomethyl)GSH reactive intermediates. This analog did not produce revertants, consistent with the view that activation of dihalomethanes must occur within the bacteria to cause genetic damage, presenting a model to be considered in studies with mammalian cells. S-(1-Acetoxymethyl)GSH reacted with 2′-deoxyguanosine to yield a major adduct, identified as S-[1-(N2-deoxyguanosinyl)methyl]GSH. Demonstration of the activation of dihalomethanes by this mammalian GSH S-transferase theta class enzyme should be of use in evaluating the risk of these chemicals, particularly in light of reports of the polymorphic expression of a similar activity in humans.

Species differences in the glutathione transferase GSTT1-1 activity towards the model substrates methyl chloride and dichloromethane in liver and kidney

Glutathione transferase (GST) GSTT1-1 is involved in the biotransformation of several chemicals widely used in industry, such as butadiene and dichloro methane DCM. The polymorphic hGSTT1-1 may well play a role in the development of kidney tumours after high and long-term occupational exposure against trichloroethylene. Although several studies have investigated the association of this polymorphism with malignant diseases little is known about its enzyme activity in potential extrahepatic target tissues. The known theta-specific substrates methyl chloride (MC) dichloromethane and 1,2-epoxy-3-(p-nitrophenoxy)propane (EPNP) were used to assay GSTT1-1 activity in liver and kidney of rats, mice, hamsters and humans differentiating the three phenotypes (non-conjugators, low conjugators, high conjugators) seen in humans. In addition GSTT1-1 activity towards MC and DCM was determined in human erythrocytes. No GSTT1-1 activity was found in any tissue of non-conjugators (NC). In all organs high conjugators (HC) showed twofold higher activity towards MC and DCM than low conjugators (LC). The activity in human samples towards EPNP was too close to the detection limit to differentiate between the three conjugator phenotypes. GSTT1-1 activity towards MC was two to seven-times higher in liver cytosol than in kidney cytosol. The relation for MC between species was identical in both organs: mouse > HC > rat > LC > hamster > NC. In rats, mice and hamsters GSTT1-1 activity in liver cytosol towards DCM was also two to seven-times higher than in the kidney cytosol. In humans this activity was twice as high in kidney cytosol than in liver cytosol. The relation between species was mouse > rat > HC > LC > hamster > NC for liver, but mouse > HC > LC/rat > hamster/NC for kidney cytosol. The importance to heed the specific environment at potential target sites in risk assessment is emphasized by these results.

Cartels – What are they and how to avoid being part of one : the implications of University fee deregulation

Universities supply a range of services to students. These include most obviously, tuition services in relation to undergraduate and postgraduate courses; research supervision services in relation to research degrees; as well as consultancy services in relation to Government and industry work. For the purposes of the CCA, universities are trading corporations. They engage in trade or commerce through the provision of a range of services for reward. As such Universities are subject to the same rules and regulations that govern the conduct of other trading corporations, such Coles and Woolworths. As senior officers and managers of a trading corporation you need to acquire some basic understanding of the rules that govern competition in the education sector. In other sectors, companies generally undertake a risk assessment of those areas where they are most at risk of contravening the CCA; to ascertain in advance how problems might arise so that they can put in place strategies to mitigate the risk of inadvertent contraventions.

One-step homogeneous C-reactive protein assay for saliva

Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the world. Human C-reactive protein (CRP) has been used in the risk assessment of coronary events. Human saliva mirrors the body's health and well-being and is non-invasive, easy to collect and ideal for third world countries as well as for large patient screening. The aim was to establish a saliva CRP reference range and to demonstrate the clinical utility of salivary CRP levels in assessing the coronary events in a primary health care setting. Methods: We have used a homogeneous bead based assay to detect CRP levels in human saliva. We have developed a rapid 15 min (vs 90 min), sequential, one-step assay to detect CRP in saliva. Saliva was collected from healthy volunteers (n = 55, ages 20-70 years) as well as from cardiac patients (n = 28, ages 43-86 years). Results: The assay incubation time was optimised from 90 min to 15 mm and generated a positive correlation (n = 29, range 10-2189 pg/mL, r2 = 0.94; Passing Bablok slope 0.885. Intercept 0, p>0.10), meaning we could decrease the incubation time and produce equivalent results with confidence. The mean CRP level in the saliva of healthy human volunteers was 285 pg/mL and in cardiac patients was 1680 pg/mL (p<0.01). Analysis of CRP concentrations in paired serum and saliva samples from cardiac patients gave a positive correlation (r2 = 0.84, p<0.001) and the salivary CRP concentration capable of distinguishing healthy from diseased patients. Conclusions: The results suggest that this minimally invasive, rapid and sensitive assay will be useful in large patient screening studies for risk assessment of coronary events. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2nd ESMO consensus conference on lung cancer : early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer consensus on diagnosis, treatment and follow-up

To complement the existing treatment guidelines for all tumour types, ESMO organises consensus conferences to focus on specific issues in each type of tumour. The 2nd ESMO Consensus Conference on Lung Cancer was held on 11-12 May 2013 in Lugano. A total of 35 experts met to address several questions on non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in each of four areas: pathology and molecular biomarkers, first-line/second and further lines in advanced disease, earlystage disease and locally advanced disease. For each question, recommendations were made including reference to the grade of recommendation and level of evidence. This consensus paper focuses on early-stage disease. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Building the safety case for UAS operations in support of natural disaster response

A framework supporting the systematic development of safety cases for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations in a broad range of civil and commercial applications is presented. The case study application is the use of UAS for disaster response. In those States where regulations do not preclude UAS operations altogether, approvals for UAS operations can be granted on a case-by-case basis contingent on the provision of a safety case acceptable to the relevant National Airworthiness Authority (NAA). A safety case for UAS operations must show how the risks associated with the hazards have been managed to an acceptable level. The foundational components necessary for structuring and assessing these safety cases have not yet been proposed. Barrier-bow-tie models are used in this paper to structure the safety case for the two primary hazards of 1) a ground impact, and 2) a Mid-Air Collision (MAC). The models establish the set of Risk Control Variables (RCVs) available to reduce the risk. For the ground-impact risk model, seven RCVs are identified which in combination govern the probability of an accident. Similarly, ten RCVs are identified within the MAC model. The effectiveness of the RCVs and how they can implemented in terms of processes, policies, devices, practices, or other actions for each of the case-study applications are discussed. The framework presented can provide for the more systematic and consistent regulation of UAS through a "safety target" approach.

A new approach to spatial data interpolation using higher-order statistics

Interpolation techniques for spatial data have been applied frequently in various fields of geosciences. Although most conventional interpolation methods assume that it is sufficient to use first- and second-order statistics to characterize random fields, researchers have now realized that these methods cannot always provide reliable interpolation results, since geological and environmental phenomena tend to be very complex, presenting non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear inter-variable relationship. This paper proposes a new approach to the interpolation of spatial data, which can be applied with great flexibility. Suitable cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics are developed to measure the spatial relationship between the random variable at an unsampled location and those in its neighbourhood. Given the computed cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics, the conditional probability density function (CPDF) is approximated via polynomial expansions, which is then utilized to determine the interpolated value at the unsampled location as an expectation. In addition, the uncertainty associated with the interpolation is quantified by constructing prediction intervals of interpolated values. The proposed method is applied to a mineral deposit dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms kriging methods in uncertainty quantification. The introduction of the cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics noticeably improves the quality of the interpolation since it enriches the information that can be extracted from the observed data, and this benefit is substantial when working with data that are sparse or have non-trivial dependence structures.

Workforce-related risks in projects with a contingent workforce

Our research examined how projects can draw together the fields of human resource management (HRM) and risk management (RM) to consider workforce-related risks on projects; particularly those with a large contingent workforce. It is argued that RM frameworks could be enhanced by a more comprehensive understanding of the specific potential non-technical “people risks” in projects. The study focussed on the Oil and Gas industry and undertook interviews with experts in the field. The findings are considered within the framework of key HRM areas; Management Practices, General Employment Practices, Staffing, HR Development, and Compensation and Benefits, along with Project Completion. Drawing together RM and HRM in a project environment, our research provides a unique opportunity to identify critical workforce-related risks. Such identification is the first step towards a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and planning for mitigation of such risks in projects.

A clarion call for action based on refined DALY estimates for South Africa

Initial estimates of the burden of disease in South Africa in 20001 have been revised on the basis of additional data to estimate the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for single causes for the first time in South Africa. The findings highlight the fact that despite uncertainty in the estimates, they provide important information to guide public health responses to improve the health of the nation...

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.