The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Distribución horizontal de la anchoveta peruana con relación a variables ambientales en el período 1986 - 2000

Se analizó la distribución horizontal de la anchoveta Engraulis ringens utilizando sistemas de información geográfica. Los datos fueron obtenidos de los cruceros de evaluación hidroacústica de recursos pelágicos realizados durante los veranos de 1986 al 2000. Los resulitados indican que la distribución horizontal de la anchoveta está asociada a parámetros oceanográficos superficiales del mar, como rangos de temperatura, salinidad y clorofila a; sin embargo,parece ser que el parámetro más importante es la salinidad.

Pescadores y aves marinas compitiendo por el mismo recurso: estrategias de forrajeo, interacciones y consecuencias

Con el examen conjunto de datos de seguimiento satelital de la flota pesquera y de marcaje electrónico de aves marinas, se analizan las interacciones entre la actividad pesquera y el forrajeo de las aves en periodo de reproducción. Se evidencia que las aves pueden mitigar la competencia con la pesca hasta cierto punto, forrajeando más lejos o quedándose más tiempo en el mar. Sin embargo, las aves en reproducción enfrentan a la vez un alto requerimiento energético para alimentar los pichones, y viajes de forrajeo limitados en distancia y tiempo por la necesidad de atender el nido. Para optimizar el éxito reproductivo de las aves marinas se recomienda: (1) Estimar, con la ayuda de modelos ecotróficos, qué cantidad de anchoveta sería conveniente ‘reservar’ para la alimentación de las aves; (2) Establecer zonas temporalmente cerradas a la pesca, alrededor de las principales colonias en los meses de reproducción de las aves. Los rangos máximos de forrajeo observados en guanayes y piqueros sugieren un radio de 50 a 100 km alrededor de las colonias, lo cual permitiría asegurar el forrajeo de estas especies en periodo de reproducción y así favorecer la sostenibilidad de sus poblaciones.

Isolation and characterization of 21 microsatellite markers in the barn owl (Tyto alba).

We report 21 new polymorphic microsatellite markers in the European barn owl (Tyto alba). The polymorphism of the reported markers was evaluated in a population situated in western Switzerland and in another from Tenerife, Canary Islands. The number of alleles per locus varies between two and 31, and expected heterozygosity per population ranges from 0.16 to 0.95. All loci are in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and no linkage disequilibrium was detected. Two loci exhibit a null allele in the Tenerife population.

A new species of Symbra (Hymenoptera, Eurytomidae, Heimbrinae) from dry forest in Brazil and new occurrence records for other Heimbrinae

The geographic ranges of Heimbra opaca (Ashmead, 1894), H. bicolor Subba Rao, 1978 and H. parallela Stage & Snelling, 1986 are extended based on study of material deposited in the entomological collections of the Laboratório de Sistemática e Bioecologia de Parasitoides e Predadores da APTA (Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil) of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brasília, DF, Brazil). Symbra potiguara Perioto & Fernandes sp. nov. (Hymenoptera, Eurytomidae) is described, illustrated and compared with S. cordobensis Stage & Snelling, 1986, the single species previously known for this genus. A key to the genera of Heimbrinae and to the species of Symbra is provided.

Major Home Appliances,2008

If you haven’t been in the market for new appliances during the past several years, you’re going to be surprised at how innovative and energy-efficient appliances have become. You’ll find energy-smart appliance choices in almost all price ranges. Before heading to the local appliance retailer or “big-box” store, measure the space the new appliance will occupy to make sure it will fit—and that there’s enough room to fully open the door (or lid), as well as adequate clearances for ventilation, plumbing connections and other hookups. Then go to the appliance manufacturers’ Web sites to look at product information, and make a list of questions and “must-have” and “nice-to-have-but-not-essential” features.

Stocks assesment, biomass and fish production in two mediterranean basins (NE Spain)

In order to evaluate the success of the reintroduction of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in the Empordh wetlands (Parc Natural dels Aiguamolls de I'Empordhà), and the Muga and Fluvih basins, density of fish, biomass and production in the Muga and Fluvia Rivers have been estimated, since fishes represent the principal prey in the otter diet. 12 study sites were selected in order to survey the main flows in both basins. Electrofishing surveys were conducted by blocking off the station with barrier nets, which was performed upon 3 successive catches. The density estimated presents a range of 1,136-1 25 ind .ha' in the Muga basin, 4,49-163 ind.ha' in the Fluvih basin and 3,76-52,2 ind.ha' in the Empordh wetlands. Estimated biomass ranges are 0,616-277,6 g.m2, 8,79-351,2 g.m2, and 5,7-108 g.m-2 respectively. These density anfi biomass ranges are similar to other results obtained from rivers inhabited by the Eurasian otter in NE Spain

Anàlisi geomètrica del Diaclasat de les Guilleries en el sector de la Vall del Ter entre els embassaments del Pasteral i Susqueda (Girona)

The Guilleries are a small and mountainous area located in the north-westem part of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges where metamorphic and igneous Paleozoic rocks are exposed. After the main hercynian folding this area was affected by a brittle deformation that is mainly manifested by the intrusion of a very large number of dykes of granodiorite and the development of a complex joint system. Trends of dykes indicate that their intrusion was related to a SE-NW extension, whose estimated value is 40% on an average. This extension seems to stand, although without any associated igneous event, with the development of NE-SW directed joints which make the main set. Five families more were developed later, onegently-dipping and fou upright; the latter trending roughly SE-NW, ENE-WSW, ESE-WNW and N-S. AU the joint sets appear in the metasedimentary Paleozoic rocks and in the hercynian intrusive bodies. Concerning the ages, joints that belong to the NE-SW and SE-NW directed sets and also those slightly dipping have been attributed to the late-hercynian times and all the other are considered to be later

Female-biased dispersal in the monogamous mammal Crocidura russula: evidence from field data and microsatellite patterns.

We investigated dispersal patterns in the monogamous Crocidura russula, based both on direct field observations (mark-recapture data) and on genetic analyses (microsatellite loci). Natal dispersal was found to be low. Most juveniles settled within their natal territory or one immediately adjacent. Migration rate was estimated to two individuals per year and per population. The correlation between genetic and geographical distances over a 16 km transect implies that migration occurs over short ranges. Natal dispersal was restricted to first-litter juveniles weaned in early May; this result suggests a direct dependence of dispersal on reproductive opportunities. Natal dispersal was highly female biased, a pattern unusual among mammals. Its association with monogamy provides support for the resource-competition model of dispersal. Our results demonstrate that a state-biased dispersal can be directly inferred from microsatellite genotype distributions, which opens new perspectives for empirical studies in this area.

Scenic Byways of Iowa, June 12, 2007

Bypass traffic and experience a “scenic” change of pace by traveling along Iowa’s scenic byways. Iowa’s eight state-designated and two nationally-designated scenic byways are a great way to experience Iowa’s natural beauty, history and culture. Stop to smell the wildflowers or listen to the songbirds, or follow an impulse to take a side trip to one of the many attractions and countryside hamlets. A camera is a must for these postcard-perfect vistas. You never know when you will encounter a bald eagle along the Mississippi River, rare plants and animals in the Loess Hills, or the exceptional architecture of unique barns, churches and other buildings along the routes. This brochure identifies each scenic byway route and the approximate mileage in terms of hard-surfaced and gravel roadways. Estimated driving time ranges from one and one-half hour to three and one-half hours, depending on your speed and the number of stops. These routes are offered for those of you who want to relax and stop often to enjoy the sights.

Geologia del massís de les Gavarres

In the present paper, the diverse morphological aspects of the Les Gavarres Massif (Catalonian Coastal Ranges) are described. Also, the different outcrop rocks are shaped in a schematic geological chart

Comparison of the polynomial model against explicit measurements of noise components for different mammography systems.

Given the adverse impact of image noise on the perception of important clinical details in digital mammography, routine quality control measurements should include an evaluation of noise. The European Guidelines, for example, employ a second-order polynomial fit of pixel variance as a function of detector air kerma (DAK) to decompose noise into quantum, electronic and fixed pattern (FP) components and assess the DAK range where quantum noise dominates. This work examines the robustness of the polynomial method against an explicit noise decomposition method. The two methods were applied to variance and noise power spectrum (NPS) data from six digital mammography units. Twenty homogeneously exposed images were acquired with PMMA blocks for target DAKs ranging from 6.25 to 1600 µGy. Both methods were explored for the effects of data weighting and squared fit coefficients during the curve fitting, the influence of the additional filter material (2 mm Al versus 40 mm PMMA) and noise de-trending. Finally, spatial stationarity of noise was assessed.Data weighting improved noise model fitting over large DAK ranges, especially at low detector exposures. The polynomial and explicit decompositions generally agreed for quantum and electronic noise but FP noise fraction was consistently underestimated by the polynomial method. Noise decomposition as a function of position in the image showed limited noise stationarity, especially for FP noise; thus the position of the region of interest (ROI) used for noise decomposition may influence fractional noise composition. The ROI area and position used in the Guidelines offer an acceptable estimation of noise components. While there are limitations to the polynomial model, when used with care and with appropriate data weighting, the method offers a simple and robust means of examining the detector noise components as a function of detector exposure.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

Understanding the ecological niche to elucidate spatial strategies of the southernmost Tupinambis lizards

Understanding factors that shape ranges of species is central in evolutionary biology. Species distribution models have become important tools to test biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Moreover, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, these models help to elucidate the spatial strategies of species at a regional scale. We modelled species distributions of two phylogenetically, geographically and ecologically close Tupinambis species (Teiidae) that occupy the southernmost area of the genus distribution in South America. We hypothesized that similarities between these species might have induced spatial strategies at the species level, such as niche differentiation and divergence of distribution patterns at a regional scale. Using logistic regression and MaxEnt we obtained species distribution models that revealed interspecific differences in habitat requirements, such as environmental temperature, precipitation and altitude. Moreover, the models obtained suggest that although the ecological niches of Tupinambis merianae and T. rufescens are different, these species might co-occur in a large contact zone. We propose that niche plasticity could be the mechanism enabling their co-occurrence. Therefore, the approach used here allowed us to understand the spatial strategies of two Tupinambis lizards at a regional scale.