Assimilation of data from conventional and non conventional networks through a LETKF scheme in the COSMO model

The present work studies a km-scale data assimilation scheme based on a LETKF developed for the COSMO model. The aim is to evaluate the impact of the assimilation of two different types of data: temperature, humidity, pressure and wind data from conventional networks (SYNOP, TEMP, AIREP reports) and 3d reflectivity from radar volume. A 3-hourly continuous assimilation cycle has been implemented over an Italian domain, based on a 20 member ensemble, with boundary conditions provided from ECMWF ENS. Three different experiments have been run for evaluating the performance of the assimilation on one week in October 2014 during which Genova flood and Parma flood took place: a control run of the data assimilation cycle with assimilation of data from conventional networks only, a second run in which the SPPT scheme is activated into the COSMO model, a third run in which also reflectivity volumes from meteorological radar are assimilated. Objective evaluation of the experiments has been carried out both on case studies and on the entire week: check of the analysis increments, computing the Desroziers statistics for SYNOP, TEMP, AIREP and RADAR, over the Italian domain, verification of the analyses against data not assimilated (temperature at the lowest model level objectively verified against SYNOP data), and objective verification of the deterministic forecasts initialised with the KENDA analyses for each of the three experiments.

Critical incident monitoring in paediatric and adult critical care: from reporting to improved patient outcomes?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Critical incident reporting alone does not necessarily improve patient safety or even patient outcomes. Substantial improvement has been made by focusing on the further two steps of critical incident monitoring, that is, the analysis of critical incidents and implementation of system changes. The system approach to patient safety had an impact on the view about the patient's role in safety. This review aims to analyse recent advances in the technique of reporting, the analysis of reported incidents, and the implementation of actual system improvements. It also explores how families should be approached about safety issues. RECENT FINDINGS: It is essential to make as many critical incidents as possible known to the intensive care team. Several factors have been shown to increase the reporting rate: anonymity, regular feedback about the errors reported, and the existence of a safety climate. Risk scoring of critical incident reports and root cause analysis may help in the analysis of incidents. Research suggests that patients can be successfully involved in safety. SUMMARY: A persisting high number of reported incidents is anticipated and regarded as continuing good safety culture. However, only the implementation of system changes, based on incident reports, and also involving the expertise of patients and their families, has the potential to improve patient outcome. Hard outcome criteria, such as standardized mortality ratio, have not yet been shown to improve as a result of critical incident monitoring.

Monitoring and Assessment of Desertification and Land Degradation: Knowledge Management, Institutions and Economics: White Paper of the DSD Working Group 3

The White Paper is a review of leading scientific knowledge on the role of knowledge management, institutions and economics in monitoring and assessment of land degradation and desertification. It provides key recommendations for more effective policies and actions for combating desertification both withn the UNCCD and beyond. This White Paper is the result of an international collaboration and consultation led jointly by the Association of DesertNet International and the United Nations University - Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), of the Dryland Science for Development Consortium (DSD). The findings were presented at the First UNCCD Scientific Conference held during the COP-9 in Buenos Aires, 2009.

Definitions and outcome measures for bullous pemphigoid: recommendations by an international panel of experts

Our scientific knowledge of bullous pemphigoid (BP) has dramatically progressed in recent years. However, despite the availability of various therapeutic options for the treatment of inflammatory diseases, only a few multicenter controlled trials have helped to define effective therapies in BP. A major obstacle in sharing multicenter-based evidences for therapeutic efforts is the lack of generally accepted definitions for the clinical evaluation of patients with BP. Common terms and end points of BP are needed so that experts in the field can accurately measure and assess disease extent, activity, severity, and therapeutic response, and thus facilitate and advance clinical trials. These recommendations from the International Pemphigoid Committee represent 2 years of collaborative efforts to attain mutually acceptable common definitions for BP and proposes a disease extent score, the BP Disease Area Index. These items should assist in the development of consistent reporting of outcomes in future BP reports and studies.

Public Drinking in the Early Modern World: Voices from the Tavern, 1500-1800

Until recently the role of the public drinking house has been approached from elitist, folkloric and anecdotal perspectives. The work of a new generation of social historians, however, has raised the tavern’s profile in the academic consciousness and confirmed its position within the mainstream of social and cultural history. It is now recognized that an understanding of the centrality of public drinking to the development of both elite and popular culture is vital to studies of social behaviour. The study of taverns has also been at the forefront of emerging interest in the history of consumption and material culture, and has contributed to a richer understanding of economic history. Constructions of gender and identity are also visible through research into the patterns of behaviour and discourse in and around the public house. This four-volume reset edition presents a wide-ranging collection of primary sources which uncover the language and behaviour of local and state authorities, of peasants and town-dwellers, and of drinking companions and irate wives. The documents are translated and set in their social and historical context, providing a multidisciplinary collection that will be of great importance to scholars of all areas of social and cultural history of the early modern period. The vast majority of this material is published here for the first time, ensuring that the collection will open up new avenues of research. Volume 1 draws heavily from the Parisian police archives and includes inspectors’ reports, complaints by the general public and details of court cases to build a picture of drinking in early modern France. Volumes 2 and 3 address public drinking in the Holy Roman Empire through a variety of chronicles, civic ordinances, court records, travel reports and surveys of public houses. Volume 4 locates taverns within a broader analysis of America’s public houses, drawing on visual material as well as journal entries, business reports and newspaper articles. Each volume is accompanied by editorial introductions and is annotated to provide readers with a high-quality resource of scholarly material.

Dynamics of Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Lao PDR Between 2000 and 2009 Based on an Analysis of MODIS Time Series and Landsat Images

The rotational nature of shifting cultivation poses several challenges to its detection by remote sensing. Consequently, there is a lack of spatial data on the dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes on a regional, i.e. sub-national, or national level. We present an approach based on a time series of Landsat and MODIS data and landscape metrics to delineate the dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes. Our results reveal that shifting cultivation is a land use system still widely and dynamically utilized in northern Laos. While there is an overall reduction in the areas dominated by shifting cultivation, some regions also show an expansion. A review of relevant reports and articles indicates that policies tend to lead to a reduction while market forces can result in both expansion and reduction. For a better understanding of the different factors affecting shifting cultivation landscapes in Laos, further research should focus on spatially explicit analyses.

Men at risk The Physical, Mental and Social Health of Men in Massachusetts

In 2009, Clark University was accepted as the university to represent Massachusetts in the National Policy Institute for Family Impact Seminars at the University of Wisconsin – Madison (http://familyimpactseminars.org). Family Impact Seminars are a series of annual seminars, briefing reports, and discussion sessions that provide up-to-date, solution-oriented research on current issues for state legislators, their aides, and legislative support bureau personnel. The seminars provide objective, nonpartisan research on current issues and do not lobby for particular policies. Seminar participants discuss policy options and identify common ground where it exists.

The Great Recession and its Impact on Families

In 2009, Clark University was accepted as the university to represent Massachusetts in the National Policy Institute for Family Impact Seminars at the University of Wisconsin – Madison (http://familyimpactseminars.org). Family Impact Seminars are a series of annual seminars, briefing reports, and discussion sessions that provide up-to-date, solution-oriented research on current issues for state legislators, legislative staff, and executive branch personnel. The seminars provide objective, nonpartisan research on current issues and do not lobby for particular policies. Seminar participants discuss policy options and identify common ground where it exists.

Biphosphonate-associated osteonecrosis of the maxilla. Case report and review of the literature

In recent years, a growing number of reports in the literature have linked osteonecrosis of the jaw bones with intravenously administered bisphosphonates prescribed for the treatment of hypercalcemia of malignancy due to bone lesions of multiple myeloma or bone metastases in patients with breast or prostate cancer. Furthermore, an association between chronic oral bisphosphonate use in patients with osteoporosis or Paget's disease, and bone necrosis in the mandible or maxilla has been demonstrated in numerous case reports and case series in the last couple of years. Therapeutically, osteonecrosis of the jaws seems to be difficult to treat surgically, often resulting in a recurring or even progressing lesion. In the present case report of a bisphosphonate-associated osteonecrosis of the maxilla in a patient with osteoporosis, the current literature will be discussed, and open research questions and potential problems for our daily dental practice routine will be addressed.

Accuracy of Preoperative Endoscopic Ultrasound (EUS) to Distinguish Between Early and Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer in Daily Clinical Practice

Introduction: Preoperative chemoradiotherapy is generally recommended for locally advanced esophageal cancer (clinical stage T3 or T4 or nodal positive disease) but not for early cancer (clinical stage T0 to T2, N0). EUS has been described as the most accurate method to distinguish between early and locally advanced stage in several studies. Recently however, the high accuracy of EUS (90% or higher) was questioned by some investigators. This raises the issue whether the results of studies focused on EUS accuracy may be directly translated into daily clinical practice. Aim & Methods: The aim of this retrospective analysis was to assess the accuracy of preoperative EUS to distinguish between early and locally advanced esophageal cancer in daily clinical practice outside a study setting. EUS was performed by several investigators, including trainees in one university hospital. For this purpose, EUS reports and patient files (medical and surgical) including histological reports of 300 consecutive pts with esophageal tumors were reviewed. In pts with adenocarcinoma or squamous cell cancer and surgical resection without previous radio-/chemotherapy, EUS tumor staging was compared with histological diagnosis. Results: Out of the 300 consecutive pts with esophageal tumor and EUS 102 pts had esophageal surgery after EUS-staging without any radio-/chemotherapy. In 93 pts oesophageal cancer was confirmed, whereas 9 had other tumors. The mean age was 65 years (range 27-89), sex ratio female:male was 1:3.2. To distinguish between early and late tumor stage, the accuracy was 85%. The sensitivity and specificity for early cancer was 59%, and 93%, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy for local tumor spread was 90%, 90%, 68%, 69%, 89% for pT0, pT1, pT2, pT3 and pT4 lesions, respectively. The overall accuracy for T-stage was 74%. For pN-positive staging the accuracy of EUS was 73%. Conclusion: In daily clinical practice, the accuracy of EUS in assessing esophageal tumor staging is lower than in specific studies focusing on EUS accuracy. Mainly early esophageal cancer stages were overstaged. Thus, the implementation of recommendations for diagnostic work-up of esophageal cancer patients resulting from highly specific studies should consider the appropriate clinical setting.

Hypereosinophilic syndrome: a multicenter, retrospective analysis of clinical characteristics and response to therapy

BACKGROUND: Hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES) is a heterogeneous group of rare disorders defined by persistent blood eosinophilia > or =1.5 x 10(9)/L, absence of a secondary cause, and evidence of eosinophil-associated pathology. With the exception of a recent multicenter trial of mepolizumab (anti-IL-5 mAb), published therapeutic experience has been restricted to case reports and small case series. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to collect and summarize baseline demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics in a large, diverse cohort of patients with HES and to review responses to treatment with conventional and novel therapies. METHODS: Clinical and laboratory data from 188 patients with HES, seen between January 2001 and December 2006 at 11 institutions in the United States and Europe, were collected retrospectively by chart review. RESULTS: Eighteen of 161 patients (11%) tested were Fip1-like 1-platelet-derived growth factor receptor alpha (FIP1L1-PDGFRA) mutation-positive, and 29 of 168 patients tested (17%) had a demonstrable aberrant or clonal T-cell population. Corticosteroid monotherapy induced complete or partial responses at 1 month in 85% (120/141) of patients with most remaining on maintenance doses (median, 10 mg prednisone equivalent daily for 2 months to 20 years). Hydroxyurea and IFN-alpha (used in 64 and 46 patients, respectively) were also effective, but their use was limited by toxicity. Imatinib (used in 68 patients) was more effective in patients with the FIP1L1-PDGFRA mutation (88%) than in those without (23%; P < .001). CONCLUSION: This study, the largest clinical analysis of patients with HES to date, not only provides useful information for clinicians but also should stimulate prospective trials to optimize treatment of HES.

Welfare Lobby Groups responding to Globalisation: A Comparison of the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) and the UK Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG)

The past decade has witnessed a period of intense economic globalisation. The growing significance of international trade, investment, production and financial flows appears to be curtailing the autonomy of individual nation states. In particular, globalisation appears to be encouraging, if not demanding, a decline in social spending and standards. However, many authors believe that this thesis ignores the continued impact of national political and ideological pressures and lobby groups on policy outcomes. In particular, it has been argued that national welfare consumer and provider groups remain influential defenders of the welfare state. For example, US aged care groups are considered to be particularly effective defenders of social security pensions. According to this argument, governments engaged in welfare retrenchment may experience considerable electoral backlash (Pierson 1996; Mishra 1999). Yet, it is also noted that governments can take action to reduce the impact of such groups by reducing their funding, and their access to policy-making and consultation processes. These actions are then justified on the basis of removing potential obstacles to economic competitiveness (Pierson 1994; Melville 1999).

Cancer, meta-analysis and reporting biases: the case of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents.

Reporting and publication bias is a well-known problem in meta-analysis and healthcare research. In 2002 we conducted a meta-analysis on the effects of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) on overall survival in cancer patients, which suggested some evidence for improved survival in patients receiving ESAs compared with controls. However, a meta-analysis of individual patient data conducted several years later showed the opposite of our first meta-analysis, that is, evidence for increased on-study mortality and reduced overall survival in cancer patients receiving ESAs. We aimed to determine whether the results of our first meta-analysis could have been affected by publication and reporting biases and, if so, whether timely access to clinical study reports and individual patient data could have prevented this. We conducted a hypothetical meta-analysis for overall survival including all studies and study data that could have been available in 2002, at the time when we conducted our first meta-analysis. Compared with our original meta-analysis, which suggested an overall survival benefit for cancer patients receiving ESAs [hazard ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67‒0.99], our hypothetical meta-analysis based on the results of all studies conducted at the time of the first analysis did not show evidence for a beneficial effect of ESAs on overall survival (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.83‒1.12). Thus we have to conclude that our first meta-analysis showed misleading overall survival benefits due to publication and reporting biases, which could have been prevented by timely access to clinical study reports and individual patient data. Unrestricted access to clinical study protocols including amendments, clinical study reports and individual patient data is needed to ensure timely detection of both beneficial and harmful effects of healthcare interventions.

Direct metabolites of Ethanol as biological markers of alcohol use: Basic aspects and applications

In addition to self reports and questionnaires, biomarkers are of relevance in the diagnosis of and therapy for alcohol use disorders. Traditional biomarkers such as gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase or mean corpuscular volume are indirect biomarkers and are subject to the influence of age, gender and non-alcohol related diseases, among others. Direct metabolites of ethanol such as Ethyl glucuronide (EtG), ethyl sulphate (EtS) and phosphatidylethanol (PEth) are direct metabolites of ethanol, that are positive after intake of ethyl alcohol. They represent useful diagnostic tools for identifying alcohol use even more accurately than traditional biomarkers. Each of these drinking indicators remains positive in serum and urine for a characteristic time spectrum after the cessation of ethanol intake - EtG and EtS in urine up to 7 days, EtG in hair for months after ethanol has left the body. Applications include clinical routine use, emergency room settings, proof of abstinence in alcohol rehabilitation programmes, driving under influence offenders, workplace testing, assessment of alcohol intake in the context of liver transplantation and foetal alcohol syndrome. Due to their properties, they open up new perspectives for prevention, interdisciplinary cooperation, diagnosis of and therapy for alcohol-related problems.

CHARACTERIZING, ASSESSING AND IMPROVING HEALTHCARE REFERRAL COMMUNICATION

Similar to other health care processes, referrals are susceptible to breakdowns. These breakdowns in the referral process can lead to poor continuity of care, slow diagnostic processes, delays and repetition of tests, patient and provider dissatisfaction, and can lead to a loss of confidence in providers. These facts and the necessity for a deeper understanding of referrals in healthcare served as the motivation to conduct a comprehensive study of referrals. The research began with the real problem and need to understand referral communication as a mean to improve patient care. Despite previous efforts to explain referrals and the dynamics and interrelations of the variables that influence referrals there is not a common, contemporary, and accepted definition of what a referral is in the health care context. The research agenda was guided by the need to explore referrals as an abstract concept by: 1) developing a conceptual definition of referrals, and 2) developing a model of referrals, to finally propose a 3) comprehensive research framework. This dissertation has resulted in a standard conceptual definition of referrals and a model of referrals. In addition a mixed-method framework to evaluate referrals was proposed, and finally a data driven model was developed to predict whether a referral would be approved or denied by a specialty service. The three manuscripts included in this dissertation present the basis for studying and assessing referrals using a common framework that should allow an easier comparative research agenda to improve referrals taking into account the context where referrals occur.