924 resultados para Prior Probability


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Hay un ejemplar encuadernado con: Introduccion a suplicacion de Zeferino Clavero de Falzes, procurador patrimonial de su magestad, en la Ciudad y Reyno de Valencia, se mando despachar un Real mandato, cuyo tenor es el que se sigue... (XVIII/497).

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Alcance y contenido: Descripción: paisaje diurno con el puente de Poulston y el río Tamar en Tasmania (Australia)

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In previous papers, the type-I intermittent phenomenon with continuous reinjection probability density (RPD) has been extensively studied. However, in this paper type-I intermittency considering discontinuous RPD function in one-dimensional maps is analyzed. To carry out the present study the analytic approximation presented by del Río and Elaskar (Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 20:1185-1191, 2010) and Elaskar et al. (Physica A. 390:2759-2768, 2011) is extended to consider discontinuous RPD functions. The results of this analysis show that the characteristic relation only depends on the position of the lower bound of reinjection (LBR), therefore for the LBR below the tangent point the relation {Mathematical expression}, where {Mathematical expression} is the control parameter, remains robust regardless the form of the RPD, although the average of the laminar phases {Mathematical expression} can change. Finally, the study of discontinuous RPD for type-I intermittency which occurs in a three-wave truncation model for the derivative nonlinear Schrodinger equation is presented. In all tests the theoretical results properly verify the numerical data

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El análisis de las diferentes alternativas en la planificación y diseño de corredores y trazados de carreteras debe basarse en la correcta definición de variables territoriales que sirvan como criterios para la toma de decisión y esto requiere un análisis ambiental preliminar de esas variables de calidad. En España, los estudios de viabilidad de nuevas carreteras y autovías están asociados a una fase del proceso de decisión que se corresponde con el denominado Estudio Informativo, el cual establece condicionantes físicos, ambientales, de uso del suelo y culturales que deben ser considerados en las primeras fases de la definición del trazado de un corredor de carretera. Así, la metodología más frecuente es establecer diferentes niveles de capacidad de acogida del territorio en el área de estudio con el fin de resumir las variables territoriales en mapas temáticos y facilitar el proceso de trazado de las alternativas de corredores de carretera. El paisaje es un factor limitante a tener en cuenta en la planificación y diseño de carreteras y, por tanto, deben buscarse trazados más sostenibles en relación con criterios estéticos y ecológicos del mismo. Pero este factor no es frecuentemente analizado en los Estudios Informativos e incluso, si es considerado, los estudios específicos de la calidad del paisaje (estético y ecológico) y de las formas del terreno no incorporan las recomendaciones de las guías de trazado para evitar o reducir los impactos en el paisaje. Además, los mapas de paisaje que se generan en este tipo de estudios no se corresponden con la escala de desarrollo del Estudio Informativo (1:5.000). Otro déficit común en planificación de corredores y trazados de carreteras es que no se tiene en cuenta la conectividad del paisaje durante el proceso de diseño de la carretera para prevenir la afección a los corredores de fauna existentes en el paisaje. Este déficit puede originar un posterior efecto barrera en los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna y la fragmentación de sus hábitats debido a la ocupación parcial o total de las teselas de hábitats con importancia biológica para la fauna (o hábitats focales) y a la interrupción de los corredores de fauna que concentran esos movimientos dispersivos de la fauna entre teselas. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es mejorar el estudio del paisaje para prevenir su afección durante el proceso de trazado de carreteras, facilitar la conservación de los corredores de fauna (o pasillos verdes) y la localización de medidas preventivas y correctoras en términos de selección y cuantificación de factores de idoneidad a fin de reducir los impactos visuales y ecológicos en el paisaje a escala local. Concretamente, la incorporación de valores cuantitativos y bien justificados en el proceso de decisión permite incrementar la transparencia en el proceso de diseño de corredores y trazados de carreteras. Con este fin, se han planteado cuatro preguntas específicas en esta investigación (1) ¿Cómo se seleccionan y evalúan los factores territoriales limitantes para localizar una nueva carretera por los profesionales españoles de planificación del territorio en relación con el paisaje? (2) ¿Cómo pueden ser definidos los corredores de fauna a partir de factores del paisaje que influyen en los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna? (3) ¿Cómo pueden delimitarse y evaluarse los corredores de fauna incluyendo el comportamiento parcialmente errático en los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna y el efecto barrera de los elementos antrópicos a una escala local? (4) ¿Qué y cómo las recomendaciones de diseño de carreteras relacionadas con el paisaje y las formas del terreno pueden ser incluidas en un modelo de Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) para ayudar a los ingenieros civiles durante el proceso de diseño de un trazado de carreteras bajo el punto de vista de la sostenibilidad?. Esta tesis doctoral propone nuevas metodologías que mejoran el análisis visual y ecológico del paisaje utilizando indicadores y modelos SIG para obtener alternativas de trazado que produzcan un menor impacto en el paisaje. Estas metodologías fueron probadas en un paisaje heterogéneo con una alta tasa de densidad de corzo (Capreolus capreolus L.), uno de los grandes mamíferos más atropellados en la red de carreteras españolas, y donde está planificada la construcción de una nueva autovía que atravesará la mitad del área de distribución del corzo. Inicialmente, se han analizado las variables utilizadas en 22 estudios de proyectos de planificación de corredores de carreteras promovidos por el Ministerio de Fomento entre 2006 y 2008. Estas variables se agruparon según condicionantes físicos, ambientales, de usos del suelo y culturales con el fin de comparar los valores asignados de capacidad de acogida del territorio a cada variable en los diferentes estudios revisados. Posteriormente, y como etapa previa de un análisis de conectividad, se construyó un mapa de resistencia de los movimientos dispersivos del corzo en base a la literatura y al juicio de expertos. Usando esta investigación como base, se le asignó un valor de resistencia a cada factor seleccionado para construir la matriz de resistencia, ponderándolo y combinándolo con el resto de factores usando el proceso analítico jerárquico y los operadores de lógica difusa como métodos de análisis multicriterio. Posteriormente, se diseñó una metodología SIG para delimitar claramente la extensión física de los corredores de fauna de acuerdo a un valor umbral de ancho geométrico mínimo, así como la existencia de múltiples potenciales conexiones entre cada par de teselas de hábitats presentes en el paisaje estudiado. Finalmente, se realizó un procesado de datos Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) y un modelo SIG para calcular la calidad del paisaje (estético y ecológico), las formas del terreno que presentan características similares para trazar una carretera y la acumulación de vistas de potenciales conductores y observadores de los alrededores de la nueva vía. Las principales contribuciones de esta investigación al conocimiento científico existente en el campo de la evaluación del impacto ambiental en relación al diseño de corredores y trazados de carreteras son cuatro. Primero, el análisis realizado de 22 Estudios Informativos de planificación de carreteras reveló que los métodos aplicados por los profesionales para la evaluación de la capacidad de acogida del territorio no fue suficientemente estandarizada, ya que había una falta de uniformidad en el uso de fuentes cartográficas y en las metodologías de evaluación de la capacidad de acogida del territorio, especialmente en el análisis de la calidad del paisaje estético y ecológico. Segundo, el análisis realizado en esta tesis destaca la importancia de los métodos multicriterio para estructurar, combinar y validar factores que limitan los movimientos dispersivos de la fauna en el análisis de conectividad. Tercero, los modelos SIG desarrollados Generador de alternativas de corredores o Generator of Alternative Corridors (GAC) y Eliminador de Corredores Estrechos o Narrow Corridor Eraser (NCE) pueden ser aplicados sistemáticamente y sobre una base científica en análisis de conectividad como una mejora de las herramientas existentes para la comprensión el paisaje como una red compuesta por nodos y enlaces interconectados. Así, ejecutando los modelos GAC y NCE de forma iterativa, pueden obtenerse corredores alternativos con similar probabilidad de ser utilizados por la fauna y sin que éstos presenten cuellos de botella. Cuarto, el caso de estudio llevado a cabo de prediseño de corredores y trazado de una nueva autovía ha sido novedoso incluyendo una clasificación semisupervisada de las formas del terreno, filtrando una nube de puntos LiDAR e incluyendo la nueva geometría 3D de la carretera en el Modelo Digital de Superficie (MDS). El uso combinado del procesamiento de datos LiDAR y de índices y clasificaciones geomorfológicas puede ayudar a los responsables encargados en la toma de decisiones a evaluar qué alternativas de trazado causan el menor impacto en el paisaje, proporciona una visión global de los juicios de valor más aplicados y, en conclusión, define qué medidas de integración paisajística correctoras deben aplicarse y dónde. ABSTRACT The assessment of different alternatives in road-corridor planning and layout design must be based on a number of well-defined territorial variables that serve as decision-making criteria, and this requires a high-quality preliminary environmental analysis of those quality variables. In Spain, feasibility studies for new roads and motorways are associated to a phase of the decision procedure which corresponds with the one known as the Informative Study, which establishes the physical, environmental, land-use and cultural constraints to be considered in the early stages of defining road corridor layouts. The most common methodology is to establish different levels of Territorial Carrying Capacity (TCC) in the study area in order to summarize the territorial variables on thematic maps and facilitate the tracing process of road-corridor layout alternatives. Landscape is a constraint factor that must be considered in road planning and design, and the most sustainable layouts should be sought based on aesthetic and ecological criteria. However this factor is not often analyzed in Informative Studies and even if it is, baseline studies on landscape quality (aesthetic and ecological) and landforms do not usually include the recommendations of road tracing guides designed to avoid or reduce impacts on the landscape. The resolution of the landscape maps produced in this type of studies does not comply with the recommended road design scale (1:5,000) in the regulations for the Informative Study procedure. Another common shortcoming in road planning is that landscape ecological connectivity is not considered during road design in order to avoid affecting wildlife corridors in the landscape. In the prior road planning stage, this issue could lead to a major barrier effect for fauna dispersal movements and to the fragmentation of their habitat due to the partial or total occupation of habitat patches of biological importance for the fauna (or focal habitats), and the interruption of wildlife corridors that concentrate fauna dispersal movements between patches. The main goal of this dissertation is to improve the study of the landscape and prevent negative effects during the road tracing process, and facilitate the preservation of wildlife corridors (or green ways) and the location of preventive and corrective measures by selecting and quantifying suitability factors to reduce visual and ecological landscape impacts at a local scale. Specifically the incorporation of quantitative and well-supported values in the decision-making process provides increased transparency in the road corridors and layouts design process. Four specific questions were raised in this research: (1) How are territorial constraints selected and evaluated in terms of landscape by Spanish land-planning practitioners before locating a new road? (2) How can wildlife corridors be defined based on the landscape factors influencing the dispersal movements of fauna? (3) How can wildlife corridors be delimited and assessed to include the partially erratic movements of fauna and the barrier effect of the anthropic elements at a local scale? (4) How recommendations of road design related to landscape and landforms can be included in a Geographic Information System (GIS) model to aid civil engineers during the road layout design process and support sustainable development? This doctoral thesis proposes new methodologies that improve the assessment of the visual and ecological landscape character using indicators and GIS models to obtain road layout alternatives with a lower impact on the landscape. These methodologies were tested on a case study of a heterogeneous landscape with a high density of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus L.) –one of the large mammals most commonly hit by vehicles on the Spanish road network– and where a new motorway is planned to pass through the middle of their distribution area. We explored the variables used in 22 road-corridor planning projects sponsored by the Ministry of Public Works between 2006 and 2008. These variables were grouped into physical, environmental, land-use and cultural constraints for the purpose of comparing the TCC values assigned to each variable in the various studies reviewed. As a prior stage in a connectivity analysis, a map of resistance to roe deer dispersal movements was created based on the literature and experts judgment. Using this research as a base, each factor selected to build the matrix was assigned a resistance value and weighted and combined with the rest of the factors using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic operators as multicriteria assessment (MCA) methods. A GIS methodology was designed to clearly delimit the physical area of wildlife corridors according to a geometric threshold width value, and the multiple potential connections between each pair of habitat patches in the landscape. A Digital Surface Model Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset processing and a GIS model was performed to determine landscape quality (aesthetic and ecological) and landforms with similar characteristics for the road layout, and the cumulative viewshed of potential drivers and observers in the area surrounding the new motorway. The main contributions of this research to current scientific knowledge in the field of environmental impact assessment for road corridors and layouts design are four. First, the analysis of 22 Informative Studies on road planning revealed that the methods applied by practitioners for assessing the TCC were not sufficiently standardized due to the lack of uniformity in the cartographic information sources and the TCC valuation methodologies, especially in the analysis of the aesthetic and ecological quality of the landscape. Second, the analysis in this dissertation highlights the importance of multicriteria methods to structure, combine and validate factors that constrain wildlife dispersal movements in the connectivity analysis. Third, the “Generator of Alternative Corridors (GAC)” and “Narrow Corridor Eraser (NCE)” GIS models developed can be applied systematically and on a scientific basis in connectivity analyses to improve existing tools and understand landscape as a network composed of interconnected nodes and links. Thus, alternative corridors with similar probability of use by fauna and without bottlenecks can be obtained by iteratively running GAC and NCE models. Fourth, our case study of new motorway corridors and layouts design innovatively included semi-supervised classification of landforms, filtering of LiDAR point clouds and new 3D road geometry on the Digital Surface Model (DSM). The combined used of LiDAR data processing and geomorphological indices and classifications can help decision-makers assess which road layouts produce lower impacts on the landscape, provide an overall insight into the most commonly applied value judgments, and in conclusion, define which corrective measures should be applied in terms of landscaping, and where.

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The effects of cell toxicity are known to be inherent in carcinogenesis induced by radiation or chemical carcinogens. The event of cell death precludes tumor induction from occurring. A long standing problem is to estimate the proportion of initiated cells that die before tumor induction. No experimental techniques are currently available for directly gauging the rate of cell death over extended periods of time. The obstacle can be surmounted by newly developed theoretical methods of carcinogenesis modeling. In this paper, we apply such methods to published data on multiple lung tumors in mice receiving different schedules of urethane. Bioassays of this type play an important role in testing environmental chemicals for carcinogenic activity. Our estimates for urethane-induced carcinogenesis show that, unexpectedly, many initiated cells die early in the course of tumor promotion. We present numerical estimates for the probability of initiated cell death for different schedules (and doses) of urethane administration.

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Structural genomics aims to solve a large number of protein structures that represent the protein space. Currently an exhaustive solution for all structures seems prohibitively expensive, so the challenge is to define a relatively small set of proteins with new, currently unknown folds. This paper presents a method that assigns each protein with a probability of having an unsolved fold. The method makes extensive use of protomap, a sequence-based classification, and scop, a structure-based classification. According to protomap, the protein space encodes the relationship among proteins as a graph whose vertices correspond to 13,354 clusters of proteins. A representative fold for a cluster with at least one solved protein is determined after superposition of all scop (release 1.37) folds onto protomap clusters. Distances within the protomap graph are computed from each representative fold to the neighboring folds. The distribution of these distances is used to create a statistical model for distances among those folds that are already known and those that have yet to be discovered. The distribution of distances for solved/unsolved proteins is significantly different. This difference makes it possible to use Bayes' rule to derive a statistical estimate that any protein has a yet undetermined fold. Proteins that score the highest probability to represent a new fold constitute the target list for structural determination. Our predicted probabilities for unsolved proteins correlate very well with the proportion of new folds among recently solved structures (new scop 1.39 records) that are disjoint from our original training set.

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Estrogen induces a global change in the translation profile of Xenopus hepatocytes, replacing serum protein synthesis with production of the yolk protein precursor vitellogenin. This is accomplished by the coordinate destabilization of serum protein mRNAs and the transcriptional induction and subsequent stabilization of vitellogenin mRNA. Previous work identified an endonuclease activity whose appearance on polysomes correlated with the disappearance of serum protein mRNAs. This enzyme, polysomal ribonuclease 1 (PMR1), is a novel member of the peroxidase gene family. The current study examined the association of PMR1 with its mRNA targets on polysomes and mRNPs. The highest amount of polysome-bound PMR1 was observed prior to estrogen induction of mRNA decay. Its distribution on sucrose density gradients matched the absorbance profile of polysome-bound mRNA, suggesting that PMR1 forms a latent complex with mRNA. Following dissociation with EDTA the 62 kDa PMR1 sedimented with a larger complex of >670 kDa. Estrogen induces a 22-fold increase in unit enzymatic activity of polysome-bound PMR1, and a time-dependent loss of PMR1 from polysomes in a manner that mirrors the disappearance of albumin mRNA. These data suggest that the key step in the extensive estrogen-induced change in mRNA decay in Xenopus liver is activation of a latent mRNA endonuclease associated with its target mRNA.

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ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters bind and hydrolyze ATP. In the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator Cl− channel, this interaction with ATP generates a gating cycle between a closed (C) and two open (O1 and O2) conformations. To understand better how ATP controls channel activity, we examined gating transitions from the C to the O1 and O2 states and from these open states to the C conformation. We made three main observations. First, we found that the channel can open into either the O1 or O2 state, that the frequency of transitions to both states was increased by ATP concentration, and that ATP increased the relative proportion of openings into O1 vs. O2. These results indicate that ATP can interact with the closed state to open the channel in at least two ways, which may involve binding to nucleotide-binding domains (NBDs) NBD1 and NBD2. Second, ATP prolonged the burst duration and altered the way in which the channel closed. These data suggest that ATP also interacts with the open channel. Third, the channel showed runs of specific types of open–closed transitions. This finding suggests a mechanism with more than one cycle of gating transitions. These data suggest models to explain how ATP influences conformational transitions in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator and perhaps other ABC transporters.

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The current status of geochemical and groundwater observations for earthquake prediction in Japan is described. The development of the observations is discussed in relation to the progress of the earthquake prediction program in Japan. Three major findings obtained from our recent studies are outlined. (i) Long-term radon observation data over 18 years at the SKE (Suikoen) well indicate that the anomalous radon change before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake can with high probability be attributed to precursory changes. (ii) It is proposed that certain sensitive wells exist which have the potential to detect precursory changes. (iii) The appearance and nonappearance of coseismic radon drops at the KSM (Kashima) well reflect changes in the regional stress state of an observation area. In addition, some preliminary results of chemical changes of groundwater prior to the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken nanbu) earthquake are presented.

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The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

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With efforts underway to develop a preventive human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine, it remains unclear which immune responses are sufficient to protect against infection and whether prior HIV-1 immunity can alter the subsequent course of HIV-1 infection. We investigated these issues in the context of a volunteer who received six HIV-1LAI envelope immunizations and 10 weeks thereafter acquired HIV-1 infection through a high-risk sexual exposure. In contrast to nonvaccinated acutely infected individuals, anamnestic HIV-1-specific B- and T-cell responses appeared within 3 weeks in this individual, and neutralizing antibody preceded CD8+ cytotoxic responses. Despite an asymptomatic course and an initial low level of detectable infectious virus, a progressive CD4+ cell decline and dysfunction occurred within 2 years. Although vaccination elicited immunity to HIV-1 envelope, which was recalled upon HIV-1 exposure, it was insufficient to prevent infection and subsequent immunodeficiency.

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The reconstruction of multitaxon trees from molecular sequences is confounded by the variety of algorithms and criteria used to evaluate trees, making it difficult to compare the results of different analyses. A global method of multitaxon phylogenetic reconstruction described here, Bootstrappers Gambit, can be used with any four-taxon algorithm, including distance, maximum likelihood, and parsimony methods. It incorporates a Bayesian-Jeffreys'-bootstrap analysis to provide a uniform probability-based criterion for comparing the results from diverse algorithms. To examine the usefulness of the method, the origin of the eukaryotes has been investigated by the analysis of ribosomal small subunit RNA sequences. Three common algorithms (paralinear distances, Jukes-Cantor distances, and Kimura distances) support the eocyte topology, whereas one (maximum parsimony) supports the archaebacterial topology, suggesting that the eocyte prokaryotes are the closest prokaryotic relatives of the eukaryotes.