986 resultados para Predictive values


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Summary The specific CD8+ T cell immune response against tumors relies on the recognition by the T cell receptor (TCR) on cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) of antigenic peptides bound to the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecule. Such tumor associated antigenic peptides are the focus of tumor immunotherapy with peptide vaccines. The strategy for obtaining an improved immune response often involves the design of modified tumor associated antigenic peptides. Such modifications aim at creating higher affinity and/or degradation resistant peptides and require precise structures of the peptide-MHC class I complex. In addition, the modified peptide must be cross-recognized by CTLs specific for the parental peptide, i.e. preserve the structure of the epitope. Detailed structural information on the modified peptide in complex with MHC is necessary for such predictions. In this thesis, the main focus is the development of theoretical in silico methods for prediction of both structure and cross-reactivity of peptide-MHC class I complexes. Applications of these methods in the context of immunotherapy are also presented. First, a theoretical method for structure prediction of peptide-MHC class I complexes is developed and validated. The approach is based on a molecular dynamics protocol to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its MHC environment. The sampled conformers are evaluated using conformational free energy calculations. The method, which is evaluated for its ability to reproduce 41 X-ray crystallographic structures of different peptide-MHC class I complexes, shows an overall prediction success of 83%. Importantly, in the clinically highly relevant subset of peptide-HLAA*0201 complexes, the prediction success is 100%. Based on these structure predictions, a theoretical approach for prediction of cross-reactivity is developed and validated. This method involves the generation of quantitative structure-activity relationships using three-dimensional molecular descriptors and a genetic neural network. The generated relationships are highly predictive as proved by high cross-validated correlation coefficients (0.78-0.79). Together, the here developed theoretical methods open the door for efficient rational design of improved peptides to be used in immunotherapy. Résumé La réponse immunitaire spécifique contre des tumeurs dépend de la reconnaissance par les récepteurs des cellules T CD8+ de peptides antigéniques présentés par les complexes majeurs d'histocompatibilité (CMH) de classe I. Ces peptides sont utilisés comme cible dans l'immunothérapie par vaccins peptidiques. Afin d'augmenter la réponse immunitaire, les peptides sont modifiés de façon à améliorer l'affinité et/ou la résistance à la dégradation. Ceci nécessite de connaître la structure tridimensionnelle des complexes peptide-CMH. De plus, les peptides modifiés doivent être reconnus par des cellules T spécifiques du peptide natif. La structure de l'épitope doit donc être préservée et des structures détaillées des complexes peptide-CMH sont nécessaires. Dans cette thèse, le thème central est le développement des méthodes computationnelles de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I et de la reconnaissance croisée. Des applications de ces méthodes de prédiction à l'immunothérapie sont également présentées. Premièrement, une méthode théorique de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I est développée et validée. Cette méthode est basée sur un échantillonnage de l'espace conformationnel du peptide dans le contexte du récepteur CMH classe I par dynamique moléculaire. Les conformations sont évaluées par leurs énergies libres conformationnelles. La méthode est validée par sa capacité à reproduire 41 structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I obtenues par cristallographie aux rayons X. Le succès prédictif général est de 83%. Pour le sous-groupe HLA-A*0201 de complexes de grande importance pour l'immunothérapie, ce succès est de 100%. Deuxièmement, à partir de ces structures prédites in silico, une méthode théorique de prédiction de la reconnaissance croisée est développée et validée. Celle-ci consiste à générer des relations structure-activité quantitatives en utilisant des descripteurs moléculaires tridimensionnels et un réseau de neurones couplé à un algorithme génétique. Les relations générées montrent une capacité de prédiction remarquable avec des valeurs de coefficients de corrélation de validation croisée élevées (0.78-0.79). Les méthodes théoriques développées dans le cadre de cette thèse ouvrent la voie du design de vaccins peptidiques améliorés.

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A delta(34)S value of +6.3 +/- 1.5% was estimated for the rhyodacitic degassing magma present underneath the hydrothermal system of Nisyros, based on the S isotope ratios of H2S in fumarolic vapors. This value was estimated by modeling the irreversible water-rock mass transfers occurring during the generation of the hydrothermal liquid which separates these fumarolic vapors. The S isotope ratio of the rhyodacitic degassing magma of Nisyros is consistent with fractional crystallization of a parent basaltic magma with an initial delta(34)S value of +4% (+/-at least 1.5%). This positive value could be explained by mantle contamination due to by either transference of fluids derived from subducted materials or involvement of altered oceanic crust, whereas contribution of biogenic sulfides from sediments seems to be negligible or nil. This conclusion agrees with the lack of N-2 and CO2 from thermal decomposition of organic matter contained in subducted sediments, which is a characteristic of the whole Aegean arc system. Since hydrothermal S at Milos and Santorini has isotope ratios similar to those determined at Nisyros, it seems likely that common controlling processes are active throughout the Aegean island arc. (C) 2002 Elsevier, Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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There is little information concerning the long term outcome of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). Thus 109 patients with reflux symptoms (33 with erosive oesophagitis) with a diagnosis of GORD after clinical evaluation and oesophageal testing were studied. All patients were treated with a stepwise approach: (a) lifestyle changes were suggested aimed at reducing reflux and antacids and the prokinetic agent domperidone were prescribed; (b) H2 blockers were added after two months when symptoms persisted; (c) anti-reflux surgery was indicated when there was no response to (b). Treatment was adjusted to maintain clinical remission during follow up. Long term treatment need was defined as minor when conservative measures sufficed for proper control, and as major if daily H2 blockers or surgery were required. The results showed that one third of the patients each had initial therapeutic need (a), (b), and (c). Of 103 patients available for follow up at three years and 89 at six years, respective therapeutic needs were minor in 52% and 55% and major in 48% and 45%. Eighty per cent of patients in (a), 67% in (b), and 17% in (c) required only conservative measures at six years. A decreasing lower oesophageal sphincter pressure (p < 0.001), radiological reflux (p = 0.028), and erosive oesophagitis (p = 0.031), but not initial clinical scores, were independent predictors of major therapeutic need as shown by multivariate analysis. The long term outcome of GORD is better than previously perceived.

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Several population pharmacokinetic (PPK) analyses of the anticancer drug imatinib have been performed to investigate different patient populations and covariate effects. The present analysis offers a systematic qualitative and quantitative summary and comparison of those. Its primary objective was to provide useful information for evaluating the expectedness of imatinib plasma concentration measurements in the frame of therapeutic drug monitoring. The secondary objective was to review clinically important concentration-effect relationships to provide help in evaluating the potential suitability of plasma concentration values. Nine PPK models describing total imatinib plasma concentration were identified. Parameter estimates were standardized to common covariate values whenever possible. Predicted median exposure (Cmin) was derived by simulations and ranged between models from 555 to 1388 ng/mL (grand median: 870 ng/mL and interquartile "reference" range: 520-1390 ng/mL). Covariates of potential clinical importance (up to 30% change in pharmacokinetic predicted by at least 1 model) included body weight, albumin, α1 acid glycoprotein, and white blood cell count. Various other covariates were included but were statistically not significant or seemed clinically less important or physiologically controversial. Concentration-response relationships had more importance below the average reference range and concentration-toxicity relationships above. Therapeutic drug monitoring-guided dosage adjustment seems justified for imatinib, but a formal predictive therapeutic range remains difficult to propose in the absence of prospective target concentration intervention trials. To evaluate the expectedness of a drug concentration measurement in practice, this review allows comparison of the measurement either to the average reference range or to a specific range accounting for individual patient characteristics. For future research, external PPK model validation or meta-model development should be considered.

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OBJECTIVE: To extract and to validate a brief version of the DISCERN which could identify mental health-related websites with good content quality. METHOD: The present study is based on the analysis of data issued from six previous studies which used DISCERN and a standardized tool for the evaluation of content quality (evidence-based health information) of 388 mental health-related websites. After extracting the Brief DISCERN, several psychometric properties (content validity through a Factor analysis, internal consistency by the Cronbach's alpha index, predictive validity through the diagnostic tests, concurrent validity by the strength of association between the Brief DISCERN and the original DISCERN scores) were investigated to ascertain its general applicability. RESULTS: A Brief DISCERN composed of two factors and six items was extracted from the original 16 items version of the DISCERN. Cronbach's alpha coefficients were more than acceptable for the complete questionnaire (alpha=0.74) and for the two distinct domains: treatments information (alpha=0.87) and reliability (alpha=0.83). Sensibility and specificity of the Brief DISCERN cut-off score > or =16 in the detection of good content quality websites were 0.357 and 0.945, respectively. Its predictive positive and negative values were 0.98 and 0.83, respectively. A statistically significant linear correlation was found between the total scores of the Brief DISCERN and those of the original DISCERN (r=0.84 and p<0.0005). CONCLUSION: The Brief DISCERN seems to be a reliable and valid instrument able to discriminate between websites with good and poor content quality. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: The Brief DISCERN is a simple tool which could facilitate the identification of good information on the web by patients and general consumers.

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In a recent paper A. S. Johal and D. J. Dunstan [Phys. Rev. B 73, 024106 (2006)] have applied multivariate linear regression analysis to the published data of the change in ultrasonic velocity with applied stress. The aim is to obtain the best estimates for the third-order elastic constants in cubic materials. From such an analysis they conclude that uniaxial stress data on metals turns out to be nearly useless by itself. The purpose of this comment is to point out that by a proper analysis of uniaxial stress data it is possible to obtain reliable values of third-order elastic constants in cubic metals and alloys. Cu-based shape memory alloys are used as an illustrative example.

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Background: The anti-angiogenic drug, bevacizumab (Bv), is currently used in the treatment of different malignancies including breast cancer. Many angiogenesis-associated molecules are found in the circulation of cancer patients. Until now, there are no prognostic or predictive factors identified in breast cancer patients treated with Bv. We present here the first results of the prospective monitoring of 6 angiogenesis-related molecules in the peripheral blood of breast cancer patients treated with a combination of Bv and PLD in the phase II trial, SAKK 24/06. Methods: Patients were treated with PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bv (10 mg/kg) on days 1 and 15 of each 4-week cycle for a maximum of 6 cycles, followed by Bv monotherapy maintenance (10 mg/m2 q2 weeks) until progression or severe toxicity. Plasma and serum samples were collected at baseline, after 2 months of therapy, then every 3 months and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&D Systems and Reliatech) were used to measure the expression levels of human vascular endothelial growth factor (hVEGF), placental growth factor (hPlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (hMMP9) and soluble VEGF receptors hsVEGFR-1, hsVEGFR-2 and hsVEGFR-3. The log-transformed data (to reduce the skewness) for each marker was analyzed using an analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to determine if there was a difference between the mean of the subgroups of interest (where α = 0.05). The untransformed data was also analyzed in the same manner as a "sensitivity" check. Results: 132 blood samples were collected in 41 out of 43 enrolled patients. Baseline levels of the molecules were compared to disease status according to RECIST. There was a statistically significant difference in the mean of the log-transformed levels of hMMP9 between responders [CR+PR] versus the mean in patients with PD (p-value=0.0004, log fold change=0.7536), and between patients with disease control [CR+PR+SD] and those with PD (p-value=<0.0001, log fold change=0.81559), with the log-transformed level of hMMP9 being higher for the responder group. The mean of the log-transformed levels of hsVEGFR-1 was statistically significantly different between patients with disease control [CR+PR+SD] and those with PD (p-value=0.0068, log fold change=-0.6089), where the log-transformed level of hsVEGFR-1 was lower for the responder group. The log-transformed level of hMMP9 at baseline was identified as a significant prognostic factor in terms of progression free survival (PFS): p-value=0.0417, hazard ratio (HR)=0.574 with a corresponding 95% confidence interval (0.336 - 0.979)). No strong correlation was shown either between the log-transformed levels of hsVEGF, hPlGF, hsVEGFR-2 or hsVEGFR-3 and clinical response or the occurrence of severe toxicity, or between the levels of the different molecules. Conclusions: Our results suggest that baseline plasma level of the matrix metalloproteinase, hMMP9, could predict tumor response and PFS in patients treated with a combination of Bv and PLD. These data justify further investigation in breast cancer patients treated with anti-angiogenic therapy.

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PURPOSE: To centrally assess estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) levels by immunohistochemistry and investigate their predictive value for benefit of chemo-endocrine compared with endocrine adjuvant therapy alone in two randomized clinical trials for node-negative breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VIII compared cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) chemotherapy for 6 cycles followed by endocrine therapy with goserelin with either modality alone in pre- and perimenopausal patients. Trial IX compared three cycles of CMF followed by tamoxifen for 5 years versus tamoxifen alone in postmenopausal patients. Central Pathology Office reviewed 883 (83%) of 1,063 patients on Trial VIII and 1,365 (82%) of 1,669 on Trial IX and determined ER and PgR by immunohistochemistry. Disease-free survival (DFS) was compared across the spectrum of expression of each receptor using the Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot methodology. RESULTS: Both receptors displayed a bimodal distribution, with substantial proportions showing no staining (receptor absent) and most of the remainder showing a high percentage of stained cells. Chemo-endocrine therapy yielded DFS superior to endocrine therapy alone for patients with receptor-absent tumors, and in some cases also for those with low levels of receptor expression. Among patients with ER-expressing tumors, additional prediction of benefit was suggested in absent or low PgR in Trial VIII but not in Trial IX. CONCLUSION: Low levels of ER and PgR are predictive of the benefit of adding chemotherapy to endocrine therapy. Low PgR may add further prediction among pre- and perimenopausal but not postmenopausal patients whose tumors express ER.

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Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

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Anti-doping authorities have high expectations of the athlete steroidal passport (ASP) for anabolic-androgenic steroids misuse detection. However, it is still limited to the monitoring of known well-established compounds and might greatly benefit from the discovery of new relevant biomarkers candidates. In this context, steroidomics opens the way to the untargeted simultaneous evaluation of a high number of compounds. Analytical platforms associating the performance of ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) and the high mass-resolving power of quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometers are particularly adapted for such purpose. An untargeted steroidomic approach was proposed to analyse urine samples from a clinical trial for the discovery of relevant biomarkers of testosterone undecanoate oral intake. Automatic peak detection was performed and a filter of reference steroid metabolites mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) values was applied to the raw data to ensure the selection of a subset of steroid-related features. Chemometric tools were applied for the filtering and the analysis of UHPLC-QTOF-MS(E) data. Time kinetics could be assessed with N-way projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (N-PLS-DA) and a detection window was confirmed. Orthogonal projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (O-PLS-DA) classification models were evaluated in a second step to assess the predictive power of both known metabolites and unknown compounds. A shared and unique structure plot (SUS-plot) analysis was performed to select the most promising unknown candidates and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were computed to assess specificity criteria applied in routine doping control. This approach underlined the pertinence to monitor both glucuronide and sulphate steroid conjugates and include them in the athletes passport, while promising biomarkers were also highlighted.

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BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.