941 resultados para Predictive
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Background Accurate diagnosis of portal vein (PV) stenosis by real-time and color Doppler US (CD-US) after segmental liver transplantation in children can decrease morbidity by avoiding unnecessary biopsy, PV hypertension, thrombosis and loss of the graft. Objective To evaluate CD-US parameters for the prediction of PV stenosis after segmental liver transplantation in children. Materials and methods We retrospectively reviewed 61 CD-US examinations measuring the diameter at the PV anastomosis, velocities at the anastomosis (PV1) and in the segment proximal to the anastomosis (PV2), and the PV1/PV2 velocity ratio. The study group comprised patients with stenosis confirmed by angiography and the control group comprised patients with a good clinical outcome. Results PV stenosis was seen in 12 CD-US examinations. The mean PV diameter was smaller in the study group (2.6 mm versus 5.7 mm) and a PV diameter of < 3.5 mm was highly predictive of stenosis (sensitivity 100%, specificity 91.8%). Conclusion A PV diameter of < 3.5 mm is a highly predictive CD-US parameter for the detection of hemodynamically significant stenosis on angiography.
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Simultaneous acquisition of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) aims to disentangle the description of brain processes by exploiting the advantages of each technique. Most studies in this field focus on exploring the relationships between fMRI signals and the power spectrum at some specific frequency bands (alpha, beta, etc.). On the other hand, brain mapping of EEG signals (e.g., interictal spikes in epileptic patients) usually assumes an haemodynamic response function for a parametric analysis applying the GLM, as a rough approximation. The integration of the information provided by the high spatial resolution of MR images and the high temporal resolution of EEG may be improved by referencing them by transfer functions, which allows the identification of neural driven areas without strong assumptions about haemodynamic response shapes or brain haemodynamic`s homogeneity. The difference on sampling rate is the first obstacle for a full integration of EEG and fMRI information. Moreover, a parametric specification of a function representing the commonalities of both signals is not established. In this study, we introduce a new data-driven method for estimating the transfer function from EEG signal to fMRI signal at EEG sampling rate. This approach avoids EEG subsampling to fMRI time resolution and naturally provides a test for EEG predictive power over BOLD signal fluctuations, in a well-established statistical framework. We illustrate this concept in resting state (eyes closed) and visual simultaneous fMRI-EEG experiments. The results point out that it is possible to predict the BOLD fluctuations in occipital cortex by using EEG measurements. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.
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Many lines of evidence indicate that theta rhythm, a prominent neural oscillatory mode found in the mammalian hippocampus, plays a key role in the acquisition, processing, and retrieval of memories. However, a predictive neurophysiological feature of the baseline theta rhythm that correlates with the learning rate across different animals has yet to be identified. Here we show that the mean theta rhythm speed observed during baseline periods of immobility has a strong positive correlation with the rate at which rats learn an operant task. This relationship is observed across rats, during both quiet waking (r=0.82; p<0.01) and paradoxical sleep (r=0.83; p<0.01), suggesting that the basal theta frequency relates to basic neurological processes that are important in the acquisition of operant behavior. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: The prognostic significance of spontaneous regression in melanoma, especially thin lesions, has been a controversial issue for the past 20 years, although recent studies suggest that extensive and late regression may be related to worse prognosis. Many data suggest that lymphangiogenesis predicts metastatic spread in melanoma. Methods: We have quantified lymphatic microvascular density (LMVD) in thin (<= 1.0 mm) superficial spreading melanomas comparing regressive and nonregressive melanomas, regressive and nonregressive areas from the same tumor, and early and late histological stages of regression in the same tumor. In addition, we tried to correlate lymphangiogenesis and tumor growth phase. We conducted histological examinations and immunohistochemical analyses using monoclonal antibody D2-40 with subsequent quantification by image analysis of 37 melanomas, 16 regressive and 21 nonregressive (controls). Results: We found higher LMVD in the late stage of regression compared with nonregressive area (internal control) of regressive melanomas. Conclusions: Our study suggest that the late stage of spontaneous regression in thin melanomas may be related to worse prognosis as it showed higher LMVD, and evidence shows that this is related with increased risk of metastatic spread. But this supposition must be confirmed by a longer follow-up for detection of lymph node metastases.
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Nuclear fluorescence in keratinocytes is an occasional phenomenon, often present in autoimmune diseases, especially in connective-tissue disease (CTD); however, its clinical significance remains unclear. To investigate the profile of patients with positive nuclear staining on direct immunofluorescence (DIF) of skin samples. A retrospective analysis of 28 patient records from our immunodermatology laboratory was performed between May 2003 and June 2006. Inclusion criteria were the presence of autoantibodies (IgG, IgA or IgM) or complement (C3) binding keratinocyte nuclei on DIF. The most prevalent diseases related to the nuclear keratinocyte DIF staining were systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 9), mixed CTD (n = 3), overlap syndrome (n = 3), Sjogren`s syndrome (n = 1), and CREST (calcinosis, Raynaud`s phenomenon, oesophageal dysmotility, sclerodactyly and telangiectasia) syndrome (n = 1). Serum antinuclear antibody (ANA) was positive in 20 of 28 patients, with titres varying from 1 : 160 to 1 : 1280. Of the 20 patients with positive anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA), 17 were positive for anti-extractable nuclear antigen antibodies, 12 had anti-SSA/Ro, 11 had anti-SSB/La and 8 had anti-ribonucleoprotein. Eight patients were negative for ANA. Positive predictive value of in vivo ANA for systemic CTDs was 75%. The present data suggest that in vivo ANA evaluation is an additional and feasible auxiliary tool for diagnosing CTDs.
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Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.
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Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between variables of physical assessment - muscular strength, flexibility and dynamic balance - with pain, pain threshold, and fibromyalgia symptoms (FM). Methods. Our sample consists of 55 women, with age ranging from 30 to 55 years (mean of 46.5, (standard deviation, SD=6.6)), mean body mass index (BMI) of 28.7(3.8) and diagnosed for FM according to the American College of Rheumatology criteria. Pain intensity was measured using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and pain threshold (PT) using Fisher`s dolorimeter. FM symptoms were assessed by the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ); flexibility by the third finger to floor test (3FF); the muscular strength index (MSI) by the maximum volunteer isometric contraction at flexion and extension of right knee and elbow using a force transducer, dynamic balance by the time to get up and go (TUG) test and the functional reach test (FRT). Data were analysed using Pearson`s correlation, as well as simple and multivariate regression tests, with significance level of 5%. Results. PT and FIQ were weakly but significantly correlated with the TUG, MSI and 3FF as well as VAS with the TUG and MSI (p<0.05). VAS, PT and FIQ was not correlated with FRT. Simple regression suggests that, alone, TUG, FR, MSI and 3FF are low predictors of VAS, PT and FIQ. For the VAS, the best predictive model includes TUG and MSI, explaining 12.6% of pain. variability. For TP and total symptoms, as obtained by the FIQ, most predictive model includes 3FF and MSI, which respectively respond by 30% and 21% of the variability. Conclusion. Muscular strength, flexibility and balance are associated with pain, pain threshold, and symptoms in FM patients.
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Background & Aims: EPIC-3 is a prospective, international study that has demonstrated the efficacy of PEG-IFN alfa-2b plus weight-based ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C and significant fibrosis who previously failed any interferon-alfa/ribavirin therapy. The aim of the present study was to assess FibroTest (FT), a validated non-invasive marker of fibrosis in treatment-naive patients, as a possible alternative to biopsy as the baseline predictor of subsequent early virologic (EVR) and sustained virologic response (SVR) in previously treated patients. Methods: Of 2312 patients enrolled, 1459 had an available baseline FT, biopsy, and complete data. Uni- (UV) and multi-variable (MV) analyses were performed using FT and biopsy. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar as in the overall population; METAVIR stage: 28% F2, 29% F3, and 43% F4, previous relapsers 29%, previous PEG-IFN regimen 41%, high baseline viral load (BVL) 64%. 506 patients (35%) had undetectable HCV-RNA at TW12 (TW12neg), with 58% achieving SVR. The accuracy of FT was similar to that in naive patients: AUROC curve for the diagnosis of F4 vs F2 = 0.80 (p<0.00001). Five baseline factors were associated (p<0.001) with SVR in UV and MV analyses (odds ratio: UV/MV): fibrosis stage estimated using FT (4.5/5.9) or biopsy (1.5/1.6), genotype 2/3 (4.5/5.1), BVL (1.5/1.3), prior relapse (1.6/1.6), previous treatment with non-PEG-IFN (2.6/2.0). These same factors were associated (p <= 0.001) with EVR. Among patients TW12neg, two independent factors remained highly predictive of SVR by MV analysis (p <= 0.001): genotype 2/3 (odds ratio = 2.9), fibrosis estimated with FT (4.3) or by biopsy (1.5). Conclusions: FibroTest at baseline is a possible non-invasive alternative to biopsy for the prediction of EVR at 12 weeks and SVR, in patients with previous failures and advanced fibrosis, retreated with PEG-IFN alfa-2b and ribavirin. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Objectives: We evaluated the correlation between the consensus and clinical definitions of pancreatitis following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), with the objective of updating and revising the definition of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). Methods: Three hundred patients were subjected to serial serum amylase & lipase levels testing and abdominal computed tomography scan for abdominal pain after ERCP. Main outcome measures included the correlation between consensus and clinical definitions. Results: Using consensus criteria, 25 patients had acute pancreatitis (11 of mild and 14 of moderate severity). Forty-three patients had acute pancreatitis using the clinical definitions (18 of mild and 25 of moderate severity). At 4 hours, serum hyperamylasemia of under 1.5-fold and at 12 hours a serum hyperamylasemia of under 2-fold had a negative predictive value of 0.94 for development of PEP. Serum hyperamylasemia following ERCP had a poor positive predictive value for PEP. Conclusions: Clinical and consensus definitions are poorly correlated; use of the latter leads to significant underrecognition of PEP. The adoption of clinical definition results in uniformity of diagnosis of pancreatitis for clinical care and research. Serum amylase levels at 4 and 12 hours after ERCP have a high negative predictive value for PEP.
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Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.
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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze the agreement between anal Pap smear and high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy in diagnosing anal dysplasia in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected patients receiving anal dysplasia screening as part of routine care. Agreement between measures was estimated by weighted kappa statistics, using a three-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (normal, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia). Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using a two-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (""without dysplasia"" and ""with dysplasia of any grade""). Estimates were also calculated for the detection of high-grade dysplasia. RESULTS: During a one-year period, 222 patients underwent 330 anal Pap smears followed by high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies. There were 311 satisfactory Pap smears with concurrent biopsies. Considering histology the standard, the frequency of anal dysplasia was 46%. Kappa agreement between anal Pap smear and biopsy was 0.20. For detection of anal dysplasia of any grade, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 61%, specificity of 60%, positive predictive value of 56%, and negative predictive value of 64%. For high-grade dysplasia, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 16% and specificity of 97%. CONCLUSION: Anal Pap smears alone were not sensitive enough to rule out anal dysplasia. We recommend that high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy be incorporated as a complementary screening test for anal dysplasia in high-risk patients. Following baseline high-resolution anoscopy, these individuals could be followed with serial anal cytology to dictate the need for future high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies.
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Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.
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Calculating the estimated resting energy expenditure (REE) in severely obese patients is useful, but there is controversy concerning the effectiveness of available prediction equations (PE) using body weight (BW). We evaluated the efficacy of REE equations against indirect calorimetry (IC) in severely obese subjects and aimed to develop a new equation based on body composition compartments. One hundred and twenty severely obese patients had their REE measured (MREE) by IC and compared to the most commonly used PE (Harris-Benedict (HB), Ireton-Jones, Owen, and Mifflin St. Jeor). In a random sample (n = 60), a new REE equation based on fat-free mass (FFM) was developed and validated. All PE studied failed to estimate REE in severe obesity (low concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and limits of agreement of nearly 50% of the sample +/- 10% of MREE). The HB equation using actual BW exhibited good results for all samples when compared to IC (2,117 +/- 518 kcal/day by HB vs. 2,139 +/- 423 kcal/day by MREE, P > 0.01); these results were blunted when patients were separated by gender (2,771 vs. 2,586 kcal/day, P < 0.001 in males and 1,825 vs. 1,939 kcal/day, P < 0.001 in females). A new resting energy expenditure equation prediction was developed using FFM, Horie-Waitzberg, & Gonzalez, expressed as 560.43 + (5.39 x BW) + (14.14 x FFM). The new resting energy expenditure equation prediction, which uses FFM and BW, demonstrates higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard PE in patients when compared to MREE (2,129 +/- 45 kcal/day vs. 2,139 +/- 423 kcal/day, respectively, P = 0.1). The new equation developed to estimate REE, which takes into account both FFM and BW, provides better results than currently available equations.
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Background: Using enzyme immunoassays and Western blot (Wb) tests, HTLV serodiagnosis yields indeterminate results in a significant number of cases. Objective: To determine the prevalence of HTLV infection among HTLV-seroindeterminate individuals. Study design: We studied peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 65 anti-HTLV Wb-seroindeterminate individuals by attempting to amplify proviral DNA sequences (tax and pot) to identify HTLV-I and HTLV-2 infections. Results: These 65 specimens exhibited predominantly (43%) anti-HTLV antibodies to gag-coded antigens in the absence of anti-p24 on Wb analysis. Tax proviral sequences were detected in 6 (9.2%) samples. According to restricted fragment polymorphism analysis (RFLP), we identified HTLV-1 proviral DNA in 4 samples. HTLV-2 in one and sequences from both in another. Nested PCR for the pot region was positive in 3 (4.6%) specimens, which were also positive for tax sequences. After hybridization HTLV-1 infection was confirmed in 2 samples (3.1%) and HTLV-2 in another (1.5%). Detection of a single HTLV DNA sequence may be due to infection by defective provirus, but its significance remains undefined. In this cohort, no Wb reactivity pattern was predictive of proviral detection. HTLV-I infection was demonstrated in an individual who had Wb reactivity to gag-coded antigens only. Conclusions: This emphasizes the importance of clinical and laboratory follow-up of HTLV-seroindeterminate individuals from endemic areas. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.