Characteristic magnetic field and speed properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions

Prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures, is essential for space weather forecasting. To achieve forecast lead times of a day or more, such predictions must be made on the basis of remote solar observations. A number of empirical prediction schemes have been proposed to forecast the transit time and speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at 1 AU. However, the current lack of magnetic field measurements in the corona severely limits our ability to forecast the 1 AU magnetic field strengths resulting from interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). In this study we investigate the relation between the characteristic magnetic field strengths and speeds of both magnetic cloud and noncloud ICMEs at 1 AU. Correlation between field and speed is found to be significant only in the sheath region ahead of magnetic clouds, not within the clouds themselves. The lack of such a relation in the sheaths ahead of noncloud ICMEs is consistent with such ICMEs being skimming encounters of magnetic clouds, though other explanations are also put forward. Linear fits to the radial speed profiles of ejecta reveal that faster-traveling ICMEs are also expanding more at 1 AU. We combine these empirical relations to form a prediction scheme for the magnetic field strength in the sheaths ahead of magnetic clouds and also suggest a method for predicting the radial speed profile through an ICME on the basis of upstream measurements.

Atmospheric electricity coupling between earthquake regions and the ionosphere

We propose a mechanism to explain suggested links between seismic activity and ionospheric changes detected overhead. Specifically, we explain changes in the natural extremely low-frequency (ELF) radio noise recently observed in the topside ionosphere aboard the DEMETER satellite at night, before major earthquakes. Our mechanism utilises increased electrical conductivity of surface layer air before a major earthquake, which reduces the surface-ionosphere electrical resistance. This increases the vertical fair weather current, and (to maintain continuity of electron flow) lowers the ionosphere. Magnitudes of crucial parameters are estimated and found to be consistent with observations. Natural variability in ionospheric and atmospheric electrical properties is evaluated, and may be overcome using a hybrid detection approach. Suggested experiments to investigate the mechanism involve measuring the cut-off frequency of ELF “tweeks”, the amplitude and phase of very low frequency radio waves in the Earth–ionosphere waveguide, or medium frequency radar, incoherent scatter or rocket studies of the lower ionospheric electron density.

Transpolar voltage and polar cap flux during the substorm cycle and steady convection events

Transpolar voltages observed during traversals of the polar cap by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-13 spacecraft during 2001 are analyzed using the expanding-contracting polar cap model of ionospheric convection. Each of the 10,216 passes is classified by its substorm phase or as a steady convection event (SCE) by inspection of the AE indices. For all phases, we detect a contribution to the transpolar voltage by reconnection in both the dayside magnetopause and in the crosstail current sheet. Detection of the IMF influence is 97% certain during quiet intervals and >99% certain during substorm/SCE growth phases but falls to 75% in substorm expansion phases: It is only 27% during SCEs. Detection of the influence of the nightside voltage is only 19% certain during growth phases, rising during expansion phases to a peak of 96% in recovery phases: During SCEs, it is >99%. The voltage during SCEs is dominated by the nightside, not the dayside, reconnection. On average, substorm expansion phases halt the growth phase rise in polar cap flux rather than reversing it. The main destruction of the excess open flux takes place during the 6- to 10-hour interval after the recovery phase (as seen in AE) and at a rate which is relatively independent of polar cap flux because the NENL has by then retreated to the far tail. The best estimate of the voltage associated with viscous-like transfer of closed field lines into the tail is around 10 kV.

Selection of candidate coding DNA barcoding regions for use on land plants

An in silico screen of 41 of the 81 coding regions of the Nicotiana plastid genome generated a shortlist of 12 candidates as DNA barcoding loci for land plants. These loci were evaluated for amplification and sequence variation against a reference set of 98 land plant taxa. The deployment of multiple primers and a modified multiplexed tandem polymerase chain reaction yielded 85–94% amplification across taxa, and mean sequence differences between sister taxa of 6.1 from 156 bases of accD to 22 from 493 bases of matK. We conclude that loci should be combined for effective diagnosis, and recommend further investigation of the following six loci: matK, rpoB, rpoC1, ndhJ, ycf5 and accD.

First imaging of corotating interaction regions using the STEREO spacecraft

Plasma parcels are observed propagating from the Sun out to the large coronal heights monitored by the Heliospheric Imagers (HI) instruments onboard the NASA STEREO spacecraft during September 2007. The source region of these out-flowing parcels is found to corotate with the Sun and to be rooted near the western boundary of an equatorial coronal hole. These plasma enhancements evolve during their propagation through the HI cameras’ fields of view and only becoming fully developed in the outer camera field of view. We provide evidence that HI is observing the formation of a Corotating Interaction Region(CIR) where fast solar wind from the equatorial coronal hole is interacting with the slow solar wind of the streamer belt located on the western edge of that coronal hole. A dense plasma parcel is also observed near the footpoint of the observed CIR at a distance less than 0.1AU from the Sun where fast wind would have not had time to catch up slow wind. We suggest that this low-lying plasma enhancement is a plasma parcel which has been disconnected from a helmet streamer and subsequently becomes embedded inside the corotating interaction region.

Intensities in infrared bands V: Bond polar properties in dimethylacetylene

The absolute intensities of all except one of the infra-red fundamental vibration bands of dimethyl acetylene have been determined, and the results have been used to compute polar properties of the C—H and C—C bonds. It has been found that if the very probable assumption is made that the acetylenic carbon atoms carry a residual negative charge, the hydrogen atoms in the C—H bonds must carry a residual positive charge. The probable value of the C—H dipole is about 04 Debye, and that of the C—C bond about 1 Debye. Comparisons have been made with the results of similar work with related molecules.

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows is developed using a minimal set of physical assumptions. These disturbances are assumed to be balanced systems intensifying through the WISHE (Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange) intensification mechanism, driven by surface fluxes of heat and moisture into an atmosphere which is neutral to moist convection. The equation set is linearized about a resting basic state and solved as an initial-value problem. A system is predicted to intensify with an exponential perturbation growth rate scaled by the radial gradient of an efficiency parameter which crudely represents the effects of unsaturated processes. The form of this efficiency parameter is assumed to be defined by initial conditions, dependent on the nature of a pre-existing vortex required to precondition the atmosphere to a state in which the vortex can intensify. Evaluation of the simple model using a primitive-equation, nonlinear numerical model provides support for the prediction of exponential perturbation growth. Good agreement is found between the simple and numerical models for the sensitivities of the measured growth rate to various parameters, including surface roughness, the rate of transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, and the scale for the growing vortex.

Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is linked to surface weather. After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in winter, the tropospheric circulation is often nudged towards the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A strong stratospheric vortex is often associated with subsequent positive NAM/NAO conditions. For stratosphere–troposphere associations to be useful for forecasting purposes it is crucial that changes to the stratospheric vortex can be understood and predicted. Recent studies have proposed that there exist tropospheric precursors to anomalous vortex events in the stratosphere and that these precursors may be understood by considering the relationship between stationary wave patterns and regional variability. Another important factor is the extent to which the inherent variability of the stratosphere in an atmospheric model influences its ability to simulate stratosphere–troposphere links. Here we examine the lower stratosphere variability in 300-year pre-industrial control integrations from 13 coupled climate models. We show that robust precursors to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies are evident across the multi-model ensemble. The most significant tropospheric component of these precursors consists of a height anomaly dipole across northern Eurasia and large anomalies in upward stationary wave fluxes in the lower stratosphere over the continent. The strength of the stratospheric variability in the models was found to depend on the variability of the upward stationary wave fluxes and the amplitude of the stationary waves.

Taxonomical vs. functional responses of bee communities to fire in two contrasting climatic regions

Valuable insights into mechanisms of community responses to environmental change can be gained by analysing in tandem the variation in functional and taxonomic composition along environmental gradients. We assess the changes in species and functional trait composition (i.e. dominant traits and functional diversity) of diverse bee communities in contrasting fire-driven systems in two climatic regions: Mediterranean (scrub habitats in Israel) and temperate (chestnut forests in southern Switzerland). In both climatic regions, there were shifts in species diversity and composition related to post-fire age. In the temperate region, functional composition responded markedly to fire; however, in the Mediterranean, the taxonomic response to fire was not matched by functional replacement. These results suggest that greater functional stability to fire in the Mediterranean is achieved by replacement of functionally similar species (i.e. functional redundancy) which dominate under different environmental conditions in the heterogeneous landscapes of the region. In contrast, the greater functional response in the temperate region was attributed to a more rapid post-fire vegetation recovery and shorter time-window when favourable habitat was available relative to the Mediterranean. Bee traits can be used to predict the functional responses of bee communities to environmental changes in habitats of conservation importance in different regions with distinct disturbance regimes. However, predictions cannot be generalized from one climatic region to another where distinct habitat configurations occur.

Prevalence and determinants of Cryptosporidium spp. infection in smallholder dairy cattle in Iringa and Tanga Regions of Tanzania

The prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. infection in a cross-sectional study of dairy cattle, from two contrasting dairying regions in Tanzania, were determined by staining smears of faecal samples with the modified Ziehl-Neelsen technique. Of the 1126 faecal samples screened, 19.7% were positive for Cr\yptosporidium spp. The prevalence was lower in Tanga Region than in Iringa Region. The prevalence of affected farms was 20% in Tanga and 21 % in Iringa. In both regions, the probability of detecting Cryptosporidium oocysts in faeces varied with animal class, but these were not consistent in both regions. In Tanga Region, Cryptosporidium oocysts were significantly more likely to be found in the faeces of milking cows. In Iringa Region, the likelihood that cattle had Cryptosporidium-positive faeces declined with age, and milking cattle were significantly less likely to have Cryptosporidium-positive faeces. In this region, 7% of cattle were housed within the family house at night, and this was marginally associated with a higher likelihood that animals had Ctyptosporidium-positive faeces. Our study suggests that even though herd sizes are small, Cryptosporidium spp. are endemic on many Tanzanian smallholder dairy farms. These protozoa may impact on animal health and production, but also on human health, given the close associations between the cattle and their keepers. Further studies are required to assess these risks in more detail, and understand the epidemiology of Cryptosporidium spp. in this management system.

Measuring bee diversity in different European habitats and biogeographical regions

Bee pollinators are currently recorded with many different sampling methods. However, the relative performances of these methods have not been systematically evaluated and compared. In response to the strong need to record ongoing shifts in pollinator diversity and abundance, global and regional pollinator initiatives must adopt standardized sampling protocols when developing large-scale and long-term monitoring schemes. We systematically evaluated the performance of six sampling methods (observation plots, pan traps, standardized and variable transect walks, trap nests with reed internodes or paper tubes) that are commonly used across a wide range of geographical regions in Europe and in two habitat types (agricultural and seminatural). We focused on bees since they represent the most important pollinator group worldwide. Several characteristics of the methods were considered in order to evaluate their performance in assessing bee diversity: sample coverage, observed species richness, species richness estimators, collector biases (identified by subunit-based rarefaction curves), species composition of the samples, and the indication of overall bee species richness (estimated from combined total samples). The most efficient method in all geographical regions, in both the agricultural and seminatural habitats, was the pan trap method. It had the highest sample coverage, collected the highest number of species, showed negligible collector bias, detected similar species as the transect methods, and was the best indicator of overall bee species richness. The transect methods were also relatively efficient, but they had a significant collector bias. The observation plots showed poor performance. As trap nests are restricted to cavity-nesting bee species, they had a naturally low sample coverage. However, both trap nest types detected additional species that were not recorded by any of the other methods. For large-scale and long-term monitoring schemes with surveyors with different experience levels, we recommend pan traps as the most efficient, unbiased, and cost-effective method for sampling bee diversity. Trap nests with reed internodes could be used as a complementary sampling method to maximize the numbers of collected species. Transect walks are the principal method for detailed studies focusing on plant-pollinator associations. Moreover, they can be used in monitoring schemes after training the surveyors to standardize their collection skills.

Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.